Malaysia

I am gonna close My Short... no matter what happen today. Happy enough if I get the BE price. I'll make a FRESH new entry again next week... either Buy From Dip OR Sell From Bounce. Very rare I let my trade float over the weekend. Next week is another battle with a fresh mind. I just don't wanna let this week floating trades clouding my judgement next week. I might go with the BULL or I might go with the BEAR next week... I dunno yet. That's why a FRESH MIND is needed to review the situation and making analysis.

That's just me.

I am going LIVE with ODL now... just can't refused to take that trade on OIL

On speculation that CHINA just rise the OIL price... that should reduce the demand. Thus, for immediate effect... should cap the top for the time being.

Plus... DJ start to shoot up covering the gap... that should make OIL drop a bit.

Plus... there's a DOWNTREND line resistance on H1 if you can see it... Oil just touched it and fall back down.

Today... is historical for me. First time ever trading OIL in my life Talked about it... discussed about it... perhaps it's time to use the knowledge into practice.

Wow weeeee Nearly 100pips green just now!!! That fast! Moving down SL to 1 pip on the green. Nothing to worry anymore. Let's ride baybeh!!!

Can't break the M30 Triangle Support... It just shoot up again. Hitting my SL. No harm done... just 1 pip banked in

Closing this SHORT now

Eh The chart already dormant... luckily I had already placed SL on my another SHORT because breaking that Triangle Support. Just about to place TP and the TRADE IS DISABLED message pop up. Now I learnt that OIL trade close early.

Not good... this gonna float over the weekend

Waiting to close my SHORT on CABLE to call off the day. What are you doing CABLE??? You either shoot UP and hitting my SL or come back down... so I can close my SHORT at a minimum loss.

Nice FREE FALL eh Temped to place SL on the green and let the profit runs for next week if more dropping happening. But stick to my discipline... Close whatever trade on Friday if I could. Will come back for you EJ... next week.

Shorted Fiber but now the Retail Market is closing... I am chicken out... taking out whatever profit there After all... Friday is a PROFIT TAKING day.

What a day for STOCK traders huh Will DJ bounce back next week?

My IBFX platform is closing soon... and I am closing what ever floating trades I got left. Happy enough... at least I keep the loss at minimal

What a week See you guys/gurls next week... for another battle. Life goes on.

Good Night... Good Trade.

What the heck... Instead of closing all CABLE SHORTs... I just let this one float over the weekend then. SL already at BE. Nothing to worry.

Next week I'll be celebrating my 5000 posts contributing to this FF Forum

Since the chance that Federal Reserve to raise rate has decreased, the USD exchange rate slips - from a Chinese news

联储加息可能性降低 美元汇率下滑

The business meeting at North Malaysia been postponed to next weekend. Sorry guys.. North Malaysia Traders that already made appointment with me to go FISHING together at Langkawi Island... I guess we'll meet next weekend

I guess I have to postpone this BIG GATHERING to JULY. Perhaps on my birthday

p/s: Unless if you guys wanna join the FISHING mania at Langkawi Island next weekend.

if it takes place in Brunei, I will join it.

Sun
Jun 22 All Day ALL http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif Jeddah Oil Summit
Saudi Arabia will host an international summit in Jeddah to discuss oil prices. Prominent figures from around the world are expected in attendance, including major oil producers, oil companies, heads of state, and oil ministers.

I wonder what the summit will do with the OIL price volatility on Monday Got floating position on it. Just got to wait and see.

p/s: I am learning how to trade OIL.

Wow weee.... too good to be true... but it was and easy set up. BUY Oil whenever the Downtrend Resistance Line BREAKOUT. Look at that 100% Accuracy. Confirmed it'll go up whenever the breakout.

Too bad.. I might be too late now to jump in. It seems that OIL has CAPPED on the top. Are we at the top yet?

But from the chart... first time ever it FLAGGING on the daily chart. Huhuhu... will be ready with PO Buy and PO Sell outside the FLAG.

Quote:
•Ranges hold and the chop continues
•Carry trade meltdown increasingly likely
•FOMC rate decision due next week


Ranges hold and the chop continues

Currency traders are certainly having their patience tested as most major pairs continue to bounce around in relatively well-worn ranges. The outlook for a break of recent ranges is pretty weak at the moment, given the ongoing data battle between high inflation readings and slowing growth indicators. And those data jousts are taking place in virtually every G-10 economy as the rise in inflation pressures and the slowdown in economic growth are global phenomena. I think traders should continue to approach the market from a range-trading perspective, and only go with a break-out if there is significant ‘new’ news out.

Scanning the horizon for potential catalysts that might lead to a break-out, my primary focus is on oil prices at the moment, and they too are rangebound between $130/140/bbl. The inverse correlation between oil prices and the USD (oil down/USD up and vice versa) remains intact and depending who you ask, it’s either oil driving the USD or the USD driving oil. Demand destruction, the market’s euphemism for reduced demand due to higher prices, is taking place, with China the latest player to address soaring energy prices by reducing fuel subsidies, effectively raising prices by about 18%. But for every indication of reduced demand, there seems to be an offsetting supply (Nigerian rebel attacks) or other sort of disruption (Israel reportedly rehearsing for a strike on Iran) that sees oil prices hold firm. Still, the laws of supply and demand remain in effect and reduced demand is more likely to permeate prices at some stage than not.

In terms of price levels, I am watching the $130/bbl level with great interest. It is both a key Ichimoku level (Kijun line is at 130.32 currently, and price is below the Tenkan line at 135.35, suggesting a downside shift is taking place) and round number psychological support. A break below that level is likely to see a sharp drop to the Ichimoku cloud, currently at the $121-122/bbl level, but rising to about $125 by the end of next week. The $140/bbl level is the upside trigger. A break lower in oil prices will in turn lend strength to the USD and pressure EUR, GBP and other key currencies.


Carry trade meltdown increasingly likely
Another potential spark to break us out of recent ranges is a fresh wave of carry trade liquidations (selling of long JPY-cross positions, like EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY). Recent stock market declines have so far been characterized by relatively low levels of volatility, which have allowed carry trades to resist sharp set-backs. But this week’s declines have seen the VIX index perk back up, though it’s still below the 25 level. Newly unsettled financial markets are just beginning to rumble, and I expect volatility to intensify as renewed doubts over financial and consumer cyclical shares increase. Ratings downgrades spanning the spectrum of businesses continue to keep the outlook sensitive, and I think it’s only a matter of time before risk aversion rears its head again and investors run for cover. Interest rate hikes by key central banks, Mexico today and the ECB expected on July 3, all in the name of fighting inflation, are undermining growth outlooks further, leading to a negative cycle of stagflation in many economies. As a proxy for carry trade weakness, I’m looking at 166.70/80 in EUR/JPY and the 106.50 level in USD/JPY as likely trigger points to major JPY-cross selling.


FOMC rate decision due next week
The main event next week is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates and accompanying press statement. The two day meeting runs from June 24-25 with the press statement released at 14:15ET on Wednesday, June 25. The idea that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged has been fully embraced by the market, with all 96 Bloomberg estimates looking for a steady 2.00% result and the futures market pricing in a slim 2% chance that the Fed hikes 25 basis points. As such, the focus falls squarely on the press statement.
We look for the Fed to make some minor tweaks to the economic and inflation assessment while their take on financial market stress and deep housing contraction will be unchanged. Bernanke’s speech two weeks ago at the Boston Fed will likely prove prescient in what we can expect. The characterization of economic activity will likely be upgraded to something that notes lower risks of a substantial downturn, echoing Bernanke’s comments. On household spending we expect the Fed to point out that the fiscal stimulus has thus far led to a tangible pickup in consumer spending -- the latest retail sales report showed this loud and clear.

That said, the most pertinent part of the communiqué will undoubtedly be how the Fed’s assessment on inflation and risk bias changes. We look for the committee to note an uncomfortable increase in inflation expectations and a more pronounced risk of rising inflation on the back of higher food and energy prices. They might even go as far as to change their symmetric risk assessment (risks balanced between growth and inflation) to focus more on inflation. Indeed, Bernanke noted how the FOMC “will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations” and thus it is quite possible that the Fed will harp on this further. In our view, however, the FOMC is likely to leave the risk assessment balanced towards both growth and inflation. Given the continued deterioration in housing, stressed financial markets, a weakening labor market and the unknown about how post-stimulus consumer spending will hold up, we believe the Fed will be prudent and will not shift their overall bias.

In terms of what this means for the USD pairs, we would expect to see a USD bullish reaction to the initial headlines as the market is likely to focus on the hawkish inflation characterization and bid the buck up. However, anything short of the FOMC changing their bias towards inflation or suggesting that current rates are now “accommodative” is likely to see initial knee-jerk gains in the USD dissipate, potentially presenting a short-term trading opportunity.

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