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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #141
  • Feb 2, 2007 10:55am Feb 2, 2007 10:55am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I took it on because of the turnaround and below the 38Fib. Was then below 8EMA. It also depends on the movement and I would say some experience. It is difficult trading news.
Thanks! I'll have to do some studying and testing in a demo account.
  • #142
  • Feb 2, 2007 6:23pm Feb 2, 2007 6:23pm
Great exercise Phillip. Thank you for being so candid and detailed with all of us. The signals are all there, it's just being able to make informed decisions about them in real time.

I've taken away some great points and rules to apply, and just need to focus on some certain areas now. I'm still making some mistakes in judgement, but this is the most promising system I've tried so far and by far the most "mechanical" with great signals and explanations.

Making sure my stop loss moves accordingly and I get back to even combined with proper money management will really help sort out the non-quality trades, and minimize losses when I do take them. Also, the guaranteed profit taking you do is very important too. Unfortunately my mini account doesn't allow that easily. So, I just have to think it

Thanks for all the information and have a great weekend! Let's all make some money next week!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #143
  • Feb 3, 2007 8:06am Feb 3, 2007 8:06am
Here are the commentaries around each deal. Dont try to calculate the pips as to the exact. The concentration on this should not be on exactly how many pips but rather the story as to why there were pips or why there weren't on any specific deal. What was the motivations as to why the deal was made or not. If it is a risky one, how am I going to reduce my risk.
That should be the mindset when reading and working through this. When you are happy with the mindset of each trade then you can go back and start with candle with candle scrolling to see how you would have done it and when and how would you have closed each trade.
Remember to take your time profile as to when you are available to trade in account when doing the actual testing.
Good luck and I hope this will help you in establishing a positive and precise attitude and mindset.
God bless.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Exercise MACD.pdf   614 KB | 8,194 downloads
  • #144
  • Feb 3, 2007 10:17am Feb 3, 2007 10:17am
Quoting Phillip Nel
It is just because of working schedule and limited internet access during working hours.

These were the amount of deals for 2006 per time (GMT+2)
01:00---25
05:00---34
09:00---17
13:00---46
17:00---52
21:00---29
Hi Philli,
Can U tell what is this "amount of deals for 2006 per time"?
Not able to understand what is your message here.
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #145
  • Feb 3, 2007 10:42am Feb 3, 2007 10:42am
Quoting Chandra
Hi Philli,
Can U tell what is this "amount of deals for 2006 per time"?
Not able to understand what is your message here.
Thanks.
-Chandra
That are the amount of signals that were given at those times. (GMT+2)
  • #146
  • Feb 3, 2007 10:58am Feb 3, 2007 10:58am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Here are the commentaries around each deal. Dont try to calculate the pips as to the exact. The concentration on this should not be on exactly how many pips but rather the story as to why there were pips or why there weren't on any specific deal. What was the motivations as to why the deal was made or not. If it is a risky one, how am I going to reduce my risk.
That should be the mindset when reading and working through this. When you are happy with the mindset of each trade then you can go back and start with candle with candle scrolling to see how you would have done it and when and how would you have closed each trade.
Remember to take your time profile as to when you are available to trade in account when doing the actual testing.
Good luck and I hope this will help you in establishing a positive and precise attitude and mindset.
God bless.
Superb explaination Phil...

But is still longway for me, only got 7 deals by using MACD only. I still need to read and understand your notes regarding SMA's and EMA's plus trendlines.

My rating is ...EXCELLENT!
  • #147
  • Feb 3, 2007 11:36am Feb 3, 2007 11:36am
Quoting Phillip Nel
You are absolutely right. Remember also that the price has broken down through the 89SMA and a pullback to the 21EMA is the rule. But the MA's is to crowded so I will wait for a breakout first and then confirmation on the MACD as we are in a little consolidation phase. If the price moves away from the 21EMA coming down and the MACD shows our trend continue setup(move towards zero and then turn away) one can consider entering with first target 1.9500 and second one 365EMA. Also watch the trendline as from 8Jan. We are at support. Patients is the name of the game.
Phillip,

Can you tell the significance of using a few SMAs and a few EMAs? Just curious though.
In addition to your very scientific trading method, I very much appreciative of your analytical thinking! Is it an inborn gift or you attained such a clear analytical mind from your education or work experience?

Thanks for your help.
-Chandra
PS: Don't forget to respond to my first question on SMAs and EMAs please!
  • #148
  • Feb 3, 2007 11:56am Feb 3, 2007 11:56am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,

Can you tell the significance of using a few SMAs and a few EMAs? Just curious though.
In addition to your very scientific trading method, I very much appreciative of your analytical thinking! Is it an inborn gift or you attained such a clear analytical mind from your education or work experience?

Thanks for your help.
-Chandra
PS: Don't forget to respond to my first question on SMAs and EMAs please!
I studied the movements and interaction between the price movement and moving averages over a period of 2 years. I found that Fibonacci numbers gave the best results as to barriers that makes the price to stay there for a while. I have also found that there is a correlation between the MA's and the reactions of people regarding to their interpretation of news and where they are willing to take the price. It was more something I obsurved than what I worked out. You can look at history on any timeframe using that MA's and come and tell us what you have seen. You will be amazed to see it works on any timeframe. The 200SMA is not a Fib number but are a wellknown one amongst traders.

I like analyses and I am a draughtsman and I think that is where it comes from.

I have missed your first question on SMAs and EMAs and cant find it or is it the one in this post you were talking about. If not can you please put it again and I promise that I will respond.

Phillip
  • #149
  • Feb 3, 2007 12:02pm Feb 3, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I don't really use pivots unless there is no indicator to set my profit target to and that havent happend yet. As to entry one can get to much involved in indicators and again does not know when to pull the trigger as out of three indicators one is in contradiction to the other and it becomes more confusing. I like it simple. The MACD tells me when to pull the trigger. After that I can focus on the management of the deal according to my plan. If there is really nothing I can set my profit target to I go fishing and I can tell you that does not happen often.
Wahid's approach is a sophistcated, yet valid approach, but it is a diversion/distraction to your approach where your objective is to keep it simple (KISS). So stay on your track and Wahid may start a new thread for all of us to participate and discuss his approach.
-Chandra
  • #150
  • Feb 3, 2007 1:14pm Feb 3, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I should have stayed in???????. The thought might be nice but I stucked to the rules that trendline can be resistance and took the profit as planned. It is not so much the pips but the discipline to stay to the rules and the plan that brings success. Otherwise we trade emotional. 1.3000 was the resistance it looks like.
Very well said {"The thoght might be nice but ...").
Unfortunately, the very similar thoughts are harming us, making us to have more losing trades and reducing our emotional strength to ashes. Thoughts like that are not 'nice thoughts', they are our enemies in disguise as a friendly thought.
-Chandra
  • #151
  • Feb 3, 2007 1:26pm Feb 3, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting Chandra
Very well said {"The thoght might be nice but ...").
Unfortunately, the very similar thoughts are harming us, making us to have more losing trades and reducing our emotional strength to ashes. Thoughts like that are not 'nice thoughts', they are our enemies in disguise as a friendly thought.
-Chandra
That is exactly our main enemy. It is those thoughts that change our mind and scatter our plans.
Thanks
  • #152
  • Feb 3, 2007 1:51pm Feb 3, 2007 1:51pm
I'm wondering how long it will take for this strategy to get it's own forum?

I think it will happen the same thing that happend to mouteki. Everybody is so excited about it and then i see threads like this one http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10985. Aren't trendlines good? Yes they are, but many don't know how to use them.

I think this system is 50% completed, maybe less.

Having so many moving averages there i think it's a step back.

Anyway, happy trading
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #153
  • Feb 3, 2007 4:35pm Feb 3, 2007 4:35pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is exactly our main enemy. It is those thoughts that change our mind and scatter our plans.
Thanks
Thanks Phillip.
What about large size trading? Is there any issues to be addressed if you go in for large l# of ots (200, 500, etc.)?
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #154
  • Feb 3, 2007 6:07pm Feb 3, 2007 6:07pm
Hi Phillip,
I love your system. Thank you so much for sharing it with us. I have looked into applying the same strategy to daily chart. It seems that it would work with great results. Did you or anybody else out there look into it?
  • #155
  • Feb 4, 2007 5:05am Feb 4, 2007 5:05am
where did that 0.0015,0.0030 etc come from? any special math rule on it? what about other pair since that number is not fit them well.thx..btw i like the macd explanation.

cheers
  • #156
  • Feb 4, 2007 6:56am Feb 4, 2007 6:56am
Hello parlenk

I'm not attempting to answer for Philip, since ... well ... it's his system, but I think he's said a couple of times that everything is the result of two years of monitoring and demo trading Eur/Usd.

I'm looking into the system and I set the levels at long-term ATR. For Eur/Usd this is about 30 pips on the 4-hour chart and so the levels correspond to 50%, 100% and 150% of that (works for Usd/Jpy too). This gives you 0.0025, 0.0050, 0.0075 for a 4-hour Gbp/Usd (ca. 50 ATR long-term), 0.0020, 0.0040, 0.0060 for 4-hour Eur/Jpy (ca. 40 ATR long-term), 0.0065, 0.0130, 0.0195 for daily Gbp/Usd (ca. 135 ATR long-term).

It's just and idea, and it does the trick on my charts.

Cheers,

dsl

PS: Thanks for sharing this system, Philip.
  • #157
  • Feb 4, 2007 9:43am Feb 4, 2007 9:43am
Hi Phillip,

Here is somethig I feel you missed a trade:
Page 8 of your PDF document, Trade from 17 Oct. to 10 November:
After your 4th trade ("Traded around zero,Trend continious") and the 5th trade ("Lower High"), there is a trade you missed. (it is either a "Double Top" or a "Lower High" trade). It could be a tiny trade, but you would not know it at the time it was forming! Please check and comment.
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #158
  • Feb 4, 2007 10:17am Feb 4, 2007 10:17am
Ok thx for the info.I will take a look on this method

cheers

Quoting dsl258639
Hello parlenk

I'm not attempting to answer for Philip, since ... well ... it's his system, but I think he's said a couple of times that everything is the result of two years of monitoring and demo trading Eur/Usd.

I'm looking into the system and I set the levels at long-term ATR. For Eur/Usd this is about 30 pips on the 4-hour chart and so the levels correspond to 50%, 100% and 150% of that (works for Usd/Jpy too). This gives you 0.0025, 0.0050, 0.0075 for a 4-hour Gbp/Usd (ca. 50 ATR long-term), 0.0020, 0.0040, 0.0060 for 4-hour Eur/Jpy (ca. 40 ATR long-term), 0.0065, 0.0130, 0.0195 for daily Gbp/Usd (ca. 135 ATR long-term).

It's just and idea, and it does the trick on my charts.

Cheers,

dsl

PS: Thanks for sharing this system, Philip.
  • #159
  • Feb 4, 2007 10:39am Feb 4, 2007 10:39am
Phillip,
I very much like your concept of treating Entry and the Exit as two independent issues.

Your MACD system has a group of guys (rules) that give "possibilities of good entries". That is it! That is all these guys (rules) do. These guys do not know anything about how to exit a trade just entered. These entry guys are not held responsible to give exit orders. They just give "possibilities of good entries" and they wash their hands off, so to say.

There is another group of guys (rules) to take care of the exits. These guys are to give ONLY " Good Exit possibilities".

Entry group does not know anything about the exit group. It is our job to combine these two groups and make our pips.

Yours is a unique concept (as far as I am aware of) where entry guys (rules) are not asked to creat 'Good exit possibilities" also. They are left alone once they do their job of identifying "Good entry Possibilities". Exit expert guys (rules) jumps in then, and play their expert-role on how to exit optimally the positions held. Similar to entry guys, these exit guys are also not asked to create any "Good Entry Possibilities".
Vey good concept. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
-Chandra
  • #160
  • Feb 4, 2007 11:22am Feb 4, 2007 11:22am
Phillip,
In page 8, in the 17 Oct. chart, in the first trade, it looks you went long for 'just moved through zero and turned back ' signal and made 60 pips..

In page 9, in the August 2006 chart, the second signal ( 'just moved through zero and turned back ') it seems you took a short position and made 31 pips.
These two signals seems to be similar but positions were taken in the opposite direction.
Am I missing something here?
Thanks.
-Chandra
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