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  • #1,261
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:55pm Jun 19, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting zoopy
We may end up waiting till next week. This week has been really boring. We've been channeling back and forth for the past 3 days or so.
Maybe things will pickup when the Tokyo session opens up in about an hour.
  • #1,262
  • Jun 19, 2008 6:08pm Jun 19, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting greywolf238
Maybe things will pickup when the Tokyo session opens up in about an hour.
You never know. This eurusd has surprised me a lot the past month or so. Anything is possible now that I've seen this pair move 200+ pips in 2 hours lol
  • #1,263
  • Jun 20, 2008 6:35am Jun 20, 2008 6:35am
Eurusd has finally broken out of it's range. We now have a wave break to the upside and my bias for this pair is "up".

Since my bias for this pair is up, I will only be doing the following:
1. buying when waves break up
2. buying when price dips and turns up
* I'll keep doing the above until a wave collapses
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_break.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #1,264
  • Jun 20, 2008 6:51am Jun 20, 2008 6:51am
Quoting fanias
Hi zoopy,
I have the same graph with caunasny and I'am looking to close for buying.....
In the USDJPY the wave has collapses, turns up and I waiting for the turnaround to go short.
your thought please
Just a follow up on this post. Fanias noticed a wave collapse and was waiting for the usdjpy to turn back down. This happened overnight and here's the chart. Waves will keep collapsing until a wave breaks up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_4hour_collapse.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #1,265
  • Jun 20, 2008 6:56am Jun 20, 2008 6:56am
I'm still long on that trade. Wasn't a bad trade afterall, especially when I anounce my position on in the market on the forum, market always proves me wrong .
Anyway it feels really heavy here at 1.5610's , we maybe up for a retracement. I'm looking to sell if it hits 1.5600 .
  • #1,266
  • Jun 20, 2008 6:59am Jun 20, 2008 6:59am
Been focused so much on the eurusd as of late, haven't bothered to look at aussie. There was a wave break at around 0.9400, two pullbacks and lastnight there was another wave break at around 0.9500. So many opportunities to buy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_4hour_break.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #1,267
  • Jun 20, 2008 7:04am Jun 20, 2008 7:04am
Quoting kaunasny
I'm still long on that trade. Wasn't a bad trade afterall, especially when I anounce my position on in the market on the forum, market always proves me wrong .
Anyway it feels really heavy here at 1.5610's , we maybe up for a retracement. I'm looking to sell if it hits 1.5600 .
lol. That's the market's way of telling you "who's BOSS".

There might be a slight retracement but notice what the market did. It went from one round number to the next. That's the reason why I said 100 TP is the best. If it turns down, get out and when it turns back up again go long lol. You get to cash in 100 pips, then buy back in at a lower price and do the same. Keep doing that until a wave collapses on you.
  • #1,268
  • Jun 20, 2008 7:19am Jun 20, 2008 7:19am
Yes, this time it did go to next 100 , I was going to begin question that theory if it didn't this time

what i'm afraid of is :
( using current market action for example )

1. Market goes to 1.5630
2. Market moves in a tight range of 20 pips for 1-2 hours
3 Market had its rest and moves another say 100 pips?


1. Taking profit of 100 pips, you take profit at 1.5600
2. You wait for market to dip below of 1.5600 to enter but it never gets there
3. You see market braking another wave up and start looking for longs.
4. Market lets say goes to 1.5660 before it starts retracing giving you the opportunity. So now you potential profit is way less than 100 pips if you look for antother round number to target. Do you take the trade or you wait for market to brake the round number and only then you enter?
5. If you choose to enter now you're at alot higher risk that you will buy the top and you might end up giving some of the profit back from you previous trade.
6. If you choose to wait for a brake of 1.5700 then you waist a lot of that move up.

Using trailing method, you might endup catching the whole move risking a portion of your profit.

Well, both methods might have its flaws. I did not check thought. Maybe the probability is much higher for market to brake a round number and dip below it before braking another round number? Have you worked on that zoopy?
  • #1,269
  • Jun 20, 2008 7:40am Jun 20, 2008 7:40am
Quoting kaunasny
Yes, this time it did go to next 100 , I was going to begin question that theory if it didn't this time

what i'm afraid of is :
( using current market action for example )

1. Market goes to 1.5630
2. Market moves in a tight range of 20 pips for 1-2 hours
3 Market had its rest and moves another say 100 pips?
Not sure why but you seem to be afraid of missing those "big moves". The market will never do a straight move up/down, there's always a pause first before it goes further. That range you speak of, would that not create waves?
Quoting kaunasny
1. Taking profit of 100 pips, you take profit at 1.5600
2. You wait for market to dip below of 1.5600 to enter but it never gets there
3. You see market braking another wave up and start looking for longs.
4. Market lets say goes to 1.5660 before it starts retracing giving you the opportunity. So now you potential profit is way less than 100 pips if you look for antother round number to target. Do you take the trade or you wait for market to brake the round number and only then you enter?
5. If you choose to enter now you're at alot higher risk that you will buy the top and you might end up giving some of the profit back from you previous trade.
6. If you choose to wait for a brake of 1.5700 then you waist a lot of that move up.
I don't necessarily wait for a round number. I use them more as a guidance tool to gauge market strength. As long as there's a wave that dips down then breaks up I will pull the trigger. I don't care if there's a round number there or not. The other thing you must keep in mind, the market is never too high to buy at (speaking of which, how do you know it's near the top?). If the market is breaking up and there aren't wave collapses, you keep buying. BUY BUY BUY lol. You buy on breaks and on pullbacks, you have a one track mind until a wave collapses on you.

Quoting kaunasny
Using trailing method, you might endup catching the whole move risking a portion of your profit.

Well, both methods might have its flaws. I did not check thought. Maybe the probability is much higher for market to brake a round number and dip below it before braking another round number? Have you worked on that zoopy?
Maybe, or you may end up giving more than half back because a wave collapses on you.

When price moves, quite often it hits a round number, if there is a substantial amount of buyers there, it will go straight through to the next round number more often than not or around the x.xx50 area. Maybe I'll post an exercise on this which I did a while back that really helped me.

btw. good questions.
  • #1,270
  • Jun 20, 2008 7:51am Jun 20, 2008 7:51am
I'm sure you remember this chart because a while back you questioned me about missing the "big move". Now... lets say I couldn't use hindsight but based my trading on what I have just outlined in the previous post. Buy all breaks and on pullbacks until a wave collapses.

I have included a chart of that period only showing the wave breaks. The market always pauses or ranges for a short period, whenever it "pauses/consolidates/ranges" whatever you want to call it, it will create waves. It has to.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_feb_mar.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #1,271
  • Jun 20, 2008 7:59am Jun 20, 2008 7:59am
Quoting zoopy
Not sure why but you seem to be afraid of missing those "big moves". The market will never do a straight move up/down, there's always a pause first before it goes further. That range you speak of, would that not create waves?
Not neceserally, if they dont produse new highs or new lows there might not be any "real" waves, maybe just random waves showing no direction. And those waves would only be visible on alot smaller time frame.

Quoting zoopy
I don't necessarily wait for a round number. I use them more as a guidance tool to gauge market strength. As long as there's a wave that dips down then breaks up I will pull the trigger. I don't care if there's a round number there or not. The other thing you must keep in mind, the market is never too high to buy at (speaking of which, how do you know it's near the top?). If the market is breaking up and there aren't wave collapses, you keep buying. BUY BUY BUY lol. You buy on breaks and on pullbacks, you have a one track mind until a wave collapses on you.
Your right, always buy on the direction of wave break after retracement


Quoting zoopy
Maybe, or you may end up giving more than half back because a wave collapses on you.


Depends on how I trail. If I trail on H4 then yes I might end up giving all of profit back hopefully getting out at break even. But if you use different trailing methods, and we both now there are hundreds , depending on size there might only be 20% give back or so.
Also you might choose areas as critical, or lets say like right now when I say market feels heavy at this range, I might narow my trailing technique down so I don't loose profit if market goes against me.
  • #1,272
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:03am Jun 20, 2008 8:03am
This happened a while ago but I remember trading gbpjpy at the time. I think this was the time when gj made a drop of around 1000 pips within a 48 hour period lol. In any case look at the daily chart. Daily shows a wave drop straight down pretty much and I've highlighted that area. After you've done that, take a look at the 4 hour and all the opportunities to short it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_daily_collapse.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_4hour_collapse.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,273
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:10am Jun 20, 2008 8:10am
Quoting zoopy
I'm sure you remember this chart because a while back you questioned me about missing the "big move". Now... lets say I couldn't use hindsight but based my trading on what I have just outlined in the previous post. Buy all breaks and on pullbacks until a wave collapses.

I have included a chart of that period only showing the wave breaks. The market always pauses or ranges for a short period, whenever it "pauses/consolidates/ranges" whatever you want to call it, it will create waves. It has to.
what I meant by poiting that move up is that those retracements were so tiny that it would really be hard to buy at lower price than the top of the wave. Unless your technique was to buy the breaks of the wave it would be really difficult. Also some of those retracements even were starting to show wave brakes down what would throw your bias short what would make you wait for a brake of the top of the wave to turn your bias long again and after that there is no pullback for you to buy on.
I hope I'm making sense
It's a little hard to explain what I want to say. I hope you get it .
  • #1,274
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:12am Jun 20, 2008 8:12am
Quoting kaunasny
Not neceserally, if they dont produse new highs or new lows there might not be any "real" waves, maybe just random waves showing no direction. And those waves would only be visible on alot smaller time frame.
Yes, there might be waves showing no direction but look at the previous big wave and follow the direction. If the direction is up, you buy when the price breaks up. If it drops you don't do anything and let the trade go.

Quoting kaunasny
Depends on how I trail. If I trail on H4 then yes I might end up giving all of profit back hopefully getting out at break even. But if you use different trailing methods, and we both now there are hundreds , depending on size there might only be 20% give back or so.
Also you might choose areas as critical, or lets say like right now when I say market feels heavy at this range, I might narow my trailing technique down so I don't loose profit if market goes against me.
You could do that, I'm definitely not stopping you or anyone else and I encourage that kind of exploration.

I'm just trying to find the easiest way to do things lol. I want to make easy money, not make my life a living hell trying to do mathematical calculations of how many pips I should trail or go into smaller timeframes. That's also the reason why I don't even bother with adding to a position anymore. It creates more headaches and if things happen quickly, I'm just making things hard on myself.
  • #1,275
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:19am Jun 20, 2008 8:19am
Quoting kaunasny
what I meant by poiting that move up is that those retracements were so tiny that it would really be hard to buy at lower price than the top of the wave. Unless your technique was to buy the breaks of the wave it would be really difficult. Also some of those retracements even were starting to show wave brakes down what would throw your bias short what would make you wait for a brake of the top of the wave to turn your bias long again and after that there is no pullback for you to buy on.
I hope I'm making sense
It's a little hard to explain what I want to say. I hope you get it .
No you're making perfect sense. There was one wave in particular that collapsed but price never turned down, instead it broke up. When it broke up like that, I would have bought again.

As I mentioned before in a previous post, the "conservative" approach is to buy on pullbacks, the "aggressive" approach is to buy on breaks + pullbacks. Having said that, I would have been doing both because I do that now.

What I'm doing now... if there is a pullback I take it. If I miss the pullback, I go for the break. This opens up my method and allows me more opportunities but within reason.
  • #1,276
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:26am Jun 20, 2008 8:26am
true on that. It really becomes more difficult as you add more parts to trading. But if you think that it helps your trading so you might consider coping with those difficulties. Hopefully you dont make it too complicated for all those things to start hurting your performance what usually happens.

Everyone wants to make easy money

Yesturday my friend asked me if there is an occupation where you don't do any work and make alot of money.

First answer I answered was forex then again I don't think there is no work involved in that and neither do I make alot of money
Then he sayed, but its alot of studying, risk and also work involved.

Then I reminded him of a diamond sceam some women tryed to talk him into a couple of months ago where you invest maybe 50$, you do not do any work and you make your first million soon. I said go try that


Well if your happy with your results than definetly it's not worth making it more difficult. And hopefully if you make it more difficult you also make it better not worse.

BTW my trade now closed at 1.56000
  • #1,277
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:43am Jun 20, 2008 8:43am
Quoting kaunasny
true on that. It really becomes more difficult as you add more parts to trading. But if you think that it helps your trading so you might consider coping with those difficulties. Hopefully you dont make it too complicated for all those things to start hurting your performance what usually happens.
Yup, just keep things simple. If there's fewer steps involved in making a decision, you're more focused and can come to a decision quicker.

Quoting kaunasny
Yesturday my friend asked me if there is an occupation where you don't do any work and make alot of money.

First answer I answered was forex then again I don't think there is no work involved in that and neither do I make alot of money
Then he sayed, but its alot of studying, risk and also work involved.

Then I reminded him of a diamond sceam some women tryed to talk him into a couple of months ago where you invest maybe 50$, you do not do any work and you make your first million soon. I said go try that
LOL

Or... work for the government. They don't work as hard and get paid very well with benefits.
Quoting kaunasny
Well if your happy with your results than definetly it's not worth making it more difficult. And hopefully if you make it more difficult you also make it better not worse.

BTW my trade now closed at 1.56000
That's a funny way of putting it there. It also pretty much proves my point. Read that quote of yours again...

"And hopefully if you make it more difficult you also make it better not worse."

You have "more difficult" and "better" in the same sentence. There's a saying in design... it's very easy to make something complicated, yet very difficult to arrive at a simple solution. Simplicity is one of the hardest things to achieve. Same goes with trading.

btw. Nice trade.
  • #1,278
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:51am Jun 20, 2008 8:51am
Heh

Your right. More difficult doesn't = better

I quess there must be a balance between how difficult and how profitable a method is.

Hopefully this profit is a result of wave following I aplyed to my trading couple weeks back. I've been doing fairly good lately. Hopefully this is not just a lucky string
  • #1,279
  • Jun 20, 2008 9:02am Jun 20, 2008 9:02am
Quoting kaunasny
Heh

Your right. More difficult doesn't = better

I quess there must be a balance between how difficult and how profitable a method is.

Hopefully this profit is a result of wave following I aplyed to my trading couple weeks back. I've been doing fairly good lately. Hopefully this is not just a lucky string
The trend is your friend

  • #1,280
  • Jun 20, 2008 10:24am Jun 20, 2008 10:24am
I have been lurking on this thread for a little while now and enjoy your journal entries. I have a question for you. You have touched on this briefly before: what timeframe do you prefer to identify your wave breaks [and why] and how do you assess whether a break is confirmed?
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