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zoopy's trading journal

  • #1,241
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:56pm Jun 18, 2008 8:56pm
Hope you don't mind me posting a chart in here. Just thought I'd illustrate what I'm seeing. (I even converted it to a grey line chart to stick with the theme!!)

I see the 1.5550 area as being the line in the sand. It is the 50% level of the current range from 1.5350 to 15800 and a breach above also coincides with a wave break on the 4HR.

Interesting.

Looking for a pullback in that area could be a good strategy.

Where are you long from Zoopy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,242
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:00pm Jun 18, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting static
Hope you don't mind me posting a chart in here. Just thought I'd illustrate what I'm seeing. (I even converted it to a grey line chart to stick with the theme!!)

I see the 1.5550 area as being the line in the sand. It is the 50% level of the current range from 1.5350 to 15800 and a breach above also coincides with a wave break on the 4HR.

Interesting.

Looking for a pullback in that area could be a good strategy.

Where are you long from Zoopy?
lol, no need to convert it to a line chart. Post what you trade with. I'm long from 1.5527 with stops at breakeven.

If price turns around I'll cash in, wait for it to turn back up then buy again. That's pretty much what I do. Buy when the waves break and when they turn up. I don't really care how high the price is either, as long as the waves break or there's a pullback without a collapse I buy.
  • #1,243
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:09pm Jun 18, 2008 9:09pm
Just looking at my charts now because I wasn't around to see the move up earlier on the eurusd. On the daily bar, price shot straight up without a retracement. For anyone who is long on this pair, you may want to be a bit cautious. Something tells me this is a bear trap. We may very well end up with a beob bar and a wave collapse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily_trap.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #1,244
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:17pm Jun 18, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting zoopy
Here's the reason for the long trade. We created mini waves for the past two days or so. My thinking was if I was originally right with my first wave analysis going up, price will head up breaking out of the range. If I was seeing waves collapsing, it would have dropped back down.

nice analysis..u have!!

I have a LONG on EUR/JPY....

Rise on EUR/USD somehow...equal EUR/JPY ??



sonic
  • #1,245
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:25pm Jun 18, 2008 9:25pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
nice analysis..u have!!

I have a LONG on EUR/JPY....

Rise on EUR/USD somehow...equal EUR/JPY ??



sonic
Not necessarily. You can try the following site which has correlation charts between pairs.

http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...elation/table/

Funny you brought this up. This past weekend I was looking at other pairs to see which two or three pairs I would trade with the eurusd if I took that route. I believe I ended up with eurusd, eurjpy and usdcad because the correlation between the three was fairly weak which is what I wanted.
  • #1,246
  • Jun 19, 2008 1:15am Jun 19, 2008 1:15am
Quoting zoopy
This is what happens when waves collapse. Dow Jones broke a wave to the upside but collapsed again.

Don't buy if waves collapse. Buy when they break up.
Don't sell if waves break up. Sell when they collapse.

I like ur quote!!

sonic
  • #1,247
  • Jun 19, 2008 6:45am Jun 19, 2008 6:45am
Quoting sonicdeejay
I like ur quote!!

sonic
Thanks.

It's also called trend trading. You can thank Jacko for that lol.
  • #1,248
  • Jun 19, 2008 6:53am Jun 19, 2008 6:53am
Quoting zoopy
Just looking at my charts now because I wasn't around to see the move up earlier on the eurusd. On the daily bar, price shot straight up without a retracement. For anyone who is long on this pair, you may want to be a bit cautious. Something tells me this is a bear trap. We may very well end up with a beob bar and a wave collapse.
Had a feeling that was a trap lol.

On another note, the eurusd created a wave overnight and it has just collapsed. In 10 minutes it will be a confirmed collapse. Bias for this pair will be down when the 4 hour period ends (provided we close below the horizontal line indicated in my chart).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_collapse.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,249
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:32am Jun 19, 2008 7:32am
Here's a 4 hour chart of the EU there is a wave collapse but it could go either way, looks like it starting to point back up, waiting for the close of this 4 hour candle to get some direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,250
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:38am Jun 19, 2008 7:38am
Quoting greywolf238
Here's a 4 hour chart of the EU there is a wave collapse but it could go either way, looks like it starting to point back up, waiting for the close of this 4 hour candle to get some direction.
When a wave collapses, quite often there is a pullback first before continuing in the direction it broke, ESPECIALLY after the initial break. The market rarely just breaks and shoots off, it breaks, pulls back then continues. Think of it in terms of waves. Take a look at some of my other charts, especially the Dow Jones daily.

Edit: Another thing to also add... look at the closing prices, not the open. The closing price is the most important one which is why I don't need bars/candles. The only time I look at the opening price is when there's a considerable amount of momentum behind the move.
  • #1,251
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:08am Jun 19, 2008 8:08am
Thanks for the reply zoopy, so in the above scenario, were waiting for bearish signs and then ride the waves down, but would you enter short now or wait for this candle to close?
  • #1,252
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:22am Jun 19, 2008 8:22am
Quoting greywolf238
Thanks for the reply zoopy, so in the above scenario, were waiting for bearish signs and then ride the waves down, but would you enter short now or wait for this candle to close?
What I would do is wait for the price to go up first and close. Once it has done this, there is a good chance it will start turning down and this is when I'll start shorting. The reason why you wait first is because price could just continue going up and break the current wave to the upside. If it did this then I would start buying. What I'm doing is trading the momentum of the move but only when price starts turning around (this is what requires patience).

Another route I may also take... if price starts to drop and the momentum picks up without the pullback, I start looking at the closest round number and gauge the strength that way.
  • #1,253
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:12am Jun 19, 2008 11:12am
Hmm... , on my graphs I did not have a wave break, but a turnaround right before the bottom of last wave.
I'm currently long since 1.4591 , lets see if it turns around.

Intresting thought. Do we consider that small of a breach a wave break, maybe it could be just noise? I would like a wave to break clearly to consider that wave break has occured. This I don't know.. to me it seems like a turnaround right at the bottom of last wave.
  • #1,254
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:17am Jun 19, 2008 11:17am
my graph H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,255
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:26am Jun 19, 2008 11:26am
Quoting kaunasny
Hmm... , on my graphs I did not have a wave break, but a turnaround right before the bottom of last wave.
I'm currently long since 1.4591 , lets see if it turns around.

Intresting thought. Do we consider that small of a breach a wave break, maybe it could be just noise? I would like a wave to break clearly to consider that wave break has occured. This I don't know.. to me it seems like a turnaround right at the bottom of last wave.
For me I consider that a wave collapse. Doesn't mean I'll necessarily short it because remember we only short when price turns around. If it doesn't turn around and breaks up, we start buying.

Also... keep in mind usdchf. Since it moves inversely to the eurusd pair and is going up, eurusd should be going down. Then again... there's nothing saying the two HAVE to move inversely to each other either. Look at cable for example lol.

I'd be more inclined to short eurusd especially if we break 1.5470 since that's the bottom of the current wave, plus falls in line with my round number analysis.
  • #1,256
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:30am Jun 19, 2008 11:30am
Quoting kaunasny
my graph H4
This chart definitely shows waves breaking up. However I wouldn't be long just yet, the line hasn't turned around plus it needs to close. I'd probably start thinking about going long if the line had to turn up to around 1.5550 area.
  • #1,257
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:54am Jun 19, 2008 11:54am
Hi zoopy,
I have the same graph with caunasny and I'am looking to close for buying.....
In the USDJPY the wave has collapses, turns up and I waiting for the turnaround to go short.
your thought please
  • #1,258
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:08pm Jun 19, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting fanias
Hi zoopy,
I have the same graph with caunasny and I'am looking to close for buying.....
In the USDJPY the wave has collapses, turns up and I waiting for the turnaround to go short.
your thought please
Nothing to add. What you're doing is what you're suppose to do. Follow the direction and be patient. Wait for price to turn around and get in when momentum picks up.
  • #1,259
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:21pm Jun 19, 2008 12:21pm
I'm just waiting for EU to make up it's mind which way it wants to go..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,260
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:37pm Jun 19, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting greywolf238
I'm just waiting for EU to make up it's mind which way it wants to go..
We may end up waiting till next week. This week has been really boring. We've been channeling back and forth for the past 3 days or so.
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