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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,601
  • Jun 18, 2008 10:51am Jun 18, 2008 10:51am
euro is stuk between teh 21 and the 200 with major resistance on the 89. All moving averages are coming together. This is the time for me to stay out and let the price figure out where it wants to go.
Phillip do you plan to position yourslef for a break out in a certian direction.
Thanks
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #15,602
  • Jun 18, 2008 11:08am Jun 18, 2008 11:08am
Quoting BIL2205
euro is stuk between teh 21 and the 200 with major resistance on the 89. All moving averages are coming together. This is the time for me to stay out and let the price figure out where it wants to go.
Phillip do you plan to position yourslef for a break out in a certian direction.
Thanks
At this stage it is chaos. Not even a hint for a early positional trade. The only thing that gives me a possibility is that inverted hammer on the 21ema and MACD if it shows TC at 20:00 candle closure.
There is also a possible inverted sHs.

THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION AND I WILL NEED SOME MORE CONFIRMATION.
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  • #15,603
  • Edited 11:33am Jun 18, 2008 11:23am | Edited 11:33am
this is my expectation :a tc in macd could be a start of a head and shoulder
edit: woooooooow ,page refreshed and im very happy to see this.my analyse is just like phillips.i naver delete my post .
edit: i see little differents now,but its still good ,thx phillip ,its because of u
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  • #15,604
  • Jun 18, 2008 11:29am Jun 18, 2008 11:29am
As I said, I need to get more active on this thread. I am sick of my life and I believe the answer will be found through trading.

BagLady, get better, you are a great person and it shows on this thread!

Okay...

I took the EURUSD short last night. Yes, it is a mess, but it appeared to have found resistence along the 89 and the 200 MA's. I took it on hope of a break out that never occured (the 4 hour bar closed down, after a few neutral bars). CT on the MACD and I gave it a whirl. I broke even (no complaints, but a bad trade).

The reason I am posting is a TC trade I took and lost on last night...

I took a strong TC move from the 21 and 8 MA (took the trade following the down bar with the arrow above it). Granted, there was news coming out on the GBP, so maybe that was a reason to stay out. I could have gotten 15 pips of profit, but I was asleep (and things will stay this way for a long time, I will not be trading full time anytime soon).

Thoughts?
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  • #15,605
  • Jun 18, 2008 11:32am Jun 18, 2008 11:32am
Hello here is a copy of the post 15521 page #1035/ Positional trade.

Also Thankyou phillip for your reply about euro. I will wait until the direction is clear before taking a trade.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #15,606
  • Jun 18, 2008 12:11pm Jun 18, 2008 12:11pm
Hi Rebecca,
I hope you get well soon.
I am in Austria visiting my parents.Be back next week .I have no access to charts.
Hope you guys make lots of pips

Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #15,607
  • Jun 18, 2008 1:04pm Jun 18, 2008 1:04pm
eu: my macd H4 closed green but its still in the triangle and bad time in day
a retrace is very possible i think
  • #15,608
  • Edited Jun 19, 2008 10:00am Jun 18, 2008 1:20pm | Edited Jun 19, 2008 10:00am
I was hoping for a smaller signal candle to make the risk smaller for a positional trade for a possible breakout on the one hand or a BIG candle closing above the 200sma to set stoploss below 89sma. None happened but I still have a feeling for a breakout to the upside. How much retrace is going to happen I dont know. The 20:00 has been difficult in the past when it gives a signal due to a lack of momentum unless there was some news driving it. The 200sma above the breakout TL is also a concern.

I will therefore only enter 50% of my normal entry size to half the risk and will add the remainder 50% depending on the movement.
Max loss will then be 50% of 46pips which will be 23pips should it turn against me.
I will set the 50% entry on a 25 trailing stop

If this one fails please dont shoot me. I have to trust my own system.

THIS IS A HIGH RISK TRADE AS WE ARE STILL WITHIN THE TRIANGLE

Edit 1
Set to BE after 25pips

Edit 2
Will keep position open with 35 trailing stop to give it chance to go to top TL. Will make trailing stop smaller as top TL is reached

Edit 3
Remainder closed by trailing stop for +22/2 = 11pips
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  • #15,609
  • Jun 18, 2008 1:29pm Jun 18, 2008 1:29pm
Rebecca, I just wanted to add my wishes for your strong, fast, and full recovery. And no worries, we're doing great with the copying. --Tony
  • #15,610
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:56pm Jun 18, 2008 5:56pm
Hi Phillip!


If price should not break out, my expectations are that the price goes south.
The 4h right now does not give us any clue, but on the daily chart price crossed through 89 from top of resistance on the 9th and now pulled back to 21 and on the 4h it's now around 200sma(almost testing it for the 3rd time) and the resistance.
Could you please comment on this?

Thank you!
Song.
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Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,611
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:37pm Jun 18, 2008 7:37pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I was hoping for a smaller signal candle to make the risk smaller for a positional trade for a possible breakout on the one hand or a BIG candle closing above the 200sma to set stoploss below 89sma. None happened but I still have a feeling for a breakout to the upside. How much retrace is going to happen I dont know. The 20:00 has been difficult in the past when it gives a signal due to a lack of momentum unless there was some news driving it. The 200sma above the breakout TL is also a concern.

I will therefore only enter 50% of my normal entry size to half the risk and will add the remainder 50% depending on the movement.
Max loss will then be 50% of 46pips which will be 23pips should it turn against me.
I will set the 50% entry on a 25 trailing stop

If this one fails please dont shoot me. I have to trust my own system.

THIS IS A HIGH RISK TRADE AS WE ARE STILL WITHIN THE TRIANGLE
Phillip I think you did it again! Price just broke out! You are great!
I think my point of view was totally wrong.
Need to do more practice.
You are the best! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,612
  • Edited 8:37pm Jun 18, 2008 7:45pm | Edited 8:37pm
Quoting Yorik
Hi, people!

I have been in this thread for some time already but it's only several days that I have finished reading it from the beginning. It took quite some time for me (about 3 months) but what I would say to the
newcomers who might be thinking if it's worth to do or not - for sure, for me without any doubt it was useful. And I think that if you have serious plans for trading and for this particular system, I
think that such efforts and time are the proper "investment" at start. Besides reading (this or, later, other threads) may be a good way to be occupied when you feel your hands itching to get into a
doubtful trade. Finally, I must say that reading the thread which is not so small also trains patience which is never extra in this game.

What I wanted to present to you is the wiki-site that I've created while going through the thread - marketrhythm.wik.is . It has links to maybe ~98% of main materials of this Phillip's 4H MACD thread
up to page 1035, ordered in categories, with short description to each. As all links direct to posts on the thread, I think that ForexFactory shouldn't be against it. As this is a Wiki (as wikipedia.org)
everybody who is eager to participate in filling this site are welcome. I will update it myself but if/when I feel that I can't do that anymore, I'll delegate admin's rights to somebody from the community.

I hope that this project will help everyone on the thread and especially the newcomers and stimulate its further development.

Yorik,

you are great & fantastic.
I have one question. The last phillip's mp3(for newcomer) said - macd set up now use only TC pattern - or may be just for the newcomer to use only TC first?
note: I have peeped your wiki they r very very good. I will read all of them soon.

thank you,

Pete.

sorry for my poor english.
  • #15,613
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:42am Jun 19, 2008 12:42am
Quoting pete.alfa
I have one question. The last phillip's mp3(for newcomer) said - macd set up now use only TC pattern - or may be just for the newcomer to use only TC first?
TCs (+BOZ and ZB) just have a higher success rate (% of profits) than other MACD setups, and Phillip recommends the newcomers to limit trading just to these ones. As far as I understand, on his real account he is also trading mostly TC-ZB-BOZ patterns (and the 2nd group is false breakouts with vivid "emotion" signs).

You may be successful trading counter-trend signals. Or you may be loosing trading trend continuation signals - they also need filtering and proper management. Much (most) depends on the trader. If you are a newcomer (like me), you have better chances playing along the trend.

Quote
note: I have peeped your wiki they r very very good. I will read all of them soon.
Thank you. Have pleasure learning.
  • #15,614
  • Jun 19, 2008 1:19am Jun 19, 2008 1:19am
well done phillip.i putted a buy order yesterday night for saving some retracement pips but it didnt retrace so much.i was not brave enough to buy before breakout
i think we can have good buy opprtunities if price backes to the broken area
  • #15,615
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:00am Jun 19, 2008 2:00am
Quoting Yorik
TCs (+BOZ and ZB) just have a higher success rate (% of profits) than other MACD setups, and Phillip recommends the newcomers to limit trading just to these ones. As far as I understand, on his real account he is also trading mostly TC-ZB-BOZ patterns (and the 2nd group is false breakouts with vivid "emotion" signs).

You may be successful trading counter-trend signals. Or you may be loosing trading trend continuation signals - they also need filtering and proper management. Much (most) depends on the trader. If you are a newcomer (like me), you have better chances playing along the trend.

Thank you. Have pleasure learning.
This sound advice. I have researched the viability of both TC and CT patterns on the Euro and GBP for the past 6 months to June 11th. The only way to carry out this research is to use smaller time frames, i used 5 mins, in order to see how the trade actually works out.

It is easy to look at 4hr candles and add up the profits, but it is only on the smaller time frames that the real story is told. A TC might show a 4hr profit, but on 5mins it might show the price rose slightly before falling back, taking out your stops, if you use them, and then climbing again to make a profit later, within the same 4hr bar. Looking just at 4hr bars is thus misleading.

The success of CT trades is not good from my own research. For the Euro from Jannuary 1st to June 11th i counted 30 CT trades, 13 were successful, in the sense they made any profit at all, and 17 were not. Even the profitable trades may not have produced any profit depending on the money management you are using. Success with any of the macd signals depends on money management as people have experienced and even the TC trades can produce little profit with poor money managment.

Other factors such as experience and filters may reduce the rate of attrition on CT trades, but anyone thinking of trading them should do their own research to check whether those trades available in their own trading times would have worked out.
  • #15,616
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:42am Jun 19, 2008 2:42am
Quoting napeharm
..The success of CT trades is not good from my own research. For the Euro from Jannuary 1st to June 11th i counted 30 CT trades, 13 were successful, in the sense they made any profit at all, and 17 were not..
Interesting data, thanks for sharing
  • #15,617
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:47am Jun 19, 2008 2:47am
I also took a careful position for the breakout at 1.5536, t/p on first half at 1.5563 (+27) and letting the second half run.

edit: 7:52 gmt: 2nd half stopped out at BE. Total pips +13.5

Managing the trade on 5min chart I could have closed it earlier and saved some pips, but I don't like to do that, not experienced enough to let positions based on 4h being influenced by such low time frame.
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  • #15,618
  • Jun 19, 2008 4:50am Jun 19, 2008 4:50am
what the ... is this? false breakout?
bought at 15 and...
my long stopped out
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  • #15,619
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:39am Jun 19, 2008 8:39am
Quoting bshadroo
what the ... is this? false breakout?
bought at 15 and...
my long stopped out
I think it is much safer to trade breakout trades when price breaks and retrace to previous sup/res line and confirm a TC trend to enter. It is normally a false trade to gamble break out trade. Don't forget Yorik's analysis that taking 20pips with both lots is the most profitable way.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,620
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:08am Jun 19, 2008 11:08am
Hi Yorik,
I read that according to your analysis, it is more profitable to close the entire position at +20 pips than taking half at +25 pips and letting the other half to run. Does it mean we have to set a fixed profit target at +20 pips?
What if our stop loss is more than 20 pips, which means a bad RR?
Sorry if I misunderstand your analysis.
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