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Help needed in OANDA + users from Malaysia 105 replies

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  • #14,201
  • Jun 17, 2008 8:36pm Jun 17, 2008 8:36pm
Weekly Downtrend Resistance line... still valid.
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  • #14,202
  • Jun 17, 2008 8:38pm Jun 17, 2008 8:38pm
Monthly UPTrend still valid with the BLUE support line to be tested.

However, the Retracement down to 50% Median still valid... which is also around the SUPPORT Blue line.
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  • #14,203
  • Jun 17, 2008 8:56pm Jun 17, 2008 8:56pm
USD/JPY


Strategy: Bullish against 107.38, Targeting 110.00

Last week, we saw a bullish trend line guide USDJPY price action higher through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 12/27/07-03/17 decline near 105.20 to test the 106.00 level. We suggested going long on a pull-back to the 105.00 area targeting the 61.8% Fib level below 107.40. Instead, USDJPY marched on to break past 107 to stall ahead of daily pivot point resistance at 108.54. We see likely consolidation above the 61.8% Fib level prior to another bullish swing aiming to test the 110.00 mark. Alternatively, we may see USDJPY give up the 107.00 handle in the short term with a pull-back to trend line support in the 105.40-50 area before further upside materializes. In either case, we see the bullish bias as having been firmly established at this point.


http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...-16-08_JPY.jpg


For more resources on the USDJPY, please visit the DailyFX Japanese Yen Currency Room.

Why would they think or say that USD/JPY might TEST 110.00 ?

They do not factor Dow movements in of course so I just wonder why not see it going to 106.00 instead ?
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  • #14,204
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:00pm Jun 17, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting Warren Forex
USD/JPY


Strategy: Bullish against 107.38, Targeting 110.00

Last week, we saw a bullish trend line guide USDJPY price action higher through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 12/27/07-03/17 decline near 105.20 to test the 106.00 level. We suggested going long on a pull-back to the 105.00 area targeting the 61.8% Fib level below 107.40. Instead, USDJPY marched on to break past 107 to stall ahead of daily pivot point resistance at 108.54. We see likely consolidation above the 61.8% Fib level prior to another bullish swing aiming to test the 110.00 mark. Alternatively, we may see USDJPY give up the 107.00 handle in the short term with a pull-back to trend line support in the 105.40-50 area before further upside materializes. In either case, we see the bullish bias as having been firmly established at this point.


http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...-16-08_JPY.jpg


For more resources on the USDJPY, please visit the DailyFX Japanese Yen Currency Room.

Why would they think or say that USD/JPY might TEST 110.00 ?

They do not factor Dow movements in of course so I just wonder why not see it going to 106.00 instead ?


We got another confirming Hindenburg Omen observation Tuesday, June 17th, the third since June 6th, and we continue to have an official Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signal on the clock. Getting a third does not make the risk of a crash any greater than had we just two, however it does drive home the point this remains an unhealthy market, and it is no aberration.

There is an approximate 25 percent probability that we will see a full blown stock market crash within the next 120 days, taking us into a risk zone through October 2008. This is significant as the odds of getting a stock market crash on any given random day is less than one-tenth of one percent. Further, we can tell you that there has not been a stock market crash over the past 25 years without a confirmed H.O. The odds of a significant stock market decline that is not a crash is higher than 25 percent. For those of you looking for more details, go to our Guest Articles section and read our last article on the H.O. NYSE New 52 week Highs were 107, with New Lows at 95, the lower of the two being 2.92 percent of total issues traded Tuesday, which were 3,244, above the 2.20 percent threshold. The first of these three observations was June 6th. The second was June 16th. This is the first confirmed H.O. since October 2007, which led to a mini-crash.

www.technicalindicatorindex.com
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  • #14,205
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:02pm Jun 17, 2008 9:02pm
Quoting Malaysia

It's ranging still after the Retracement until around 50% median. Now creating a FLAG FORMATION. Can place PO Sell and PO Buy outside the Flag to catch the BREAKOUT movement.

However, I already placed my premature SHORT with SL above 1.9600 and above 61.8% Fibbo. That is my SELL FROM BOUNCE.

That is about 50pips SL. But my TP will be around 100 to 200pips.

4:30pm GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif MPC Meeting Minutes

Uncle KING already giving out a hint yesterday regarding the danger of IR HIKE during STAGFLATION. He also will make a speech later on.

2:30am GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif BOE Governor King Speaks

Trade At Your Own Risk!!!
20pips on the GREEN already Moving down my SL to 1pip on the green. I got nothing to lose anymore... but 1 pip to gain if it shoot up suddenly.

p/s: The FLAG just broke downside. Careful with possible FALSE BREAKOUT or spike.

T.A.Y.O.R.
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  • #14,206
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:10pm Jun 17, 2008 9:10pm
Hi Malaysia.

I saw your analysis in the cable thread and I would like to follow also in this thrade. I am also short at 9549 and I got 8 pips now. Well see what hapen.
  • #14,207
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:10pm Jun 17, 2008 9:10pm
Quoting Malaysia
20pips on the GREEN already Moving down my SL to 1pip on the green. I got nothing to lose anymore... but 1 pip to gain if it shoot up suddenly.


Me also on the green, also just moving down my SL to 1 pip on the green. Let's hope I get to learn the lesson: Let the profit runs this time. Thanks Sham!
  • #14,208
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:34pm Jun 17, 2008 9:34pm
Cable bear is struggling at 50% Retracement from Yesterday Low to Today High. Critical point. Break that have to pass through 61.8% Fibbo to make it highly probable for 100% Retracement. Upon breaking 100% retracement... I see 161.8% Fibbo as a logical level to TP for today as it also around 1.9400 psychological SUPPORT.

If this 50% Median (white fibbo) is holding strong... CABLE might shoot up and testing the DAILY PIVOT again... and upon breaking it upward might trigger lots of Buying/Long.

T.A.Y.O.R.
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  • #14,209
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:38pm Jun 17, 2008 9:38pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif THE WRAP UP For June 17, 2008 !!!
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippet:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...era_wrapup.gif

Today's Market WrapUp 06.17.2008 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Barbera Archive

Disco Balls, Donna Summer, Pipeline Pressures
& the Great Housing CollapseBY FRANK BARBERA, CMT
In a session packed with a great deal of economic data, the latest thermometer readings for the US economy continue to show a patient seriously laid up in the intensive care ward. To begin with, prices continue to soar with May Wholesale prices moving ahead at the fastest pace in six months for a single month period, and with a year-over-year rate of change still running at 7.24%, the PPI remains near a multi-decade high. Entirely unreported and with the most serious implications for where things are headed next, two measures of pipeline inflation continue to remain in long term high inflation territory. To start with, if we compare Wholesale prices to Consumer Prices, the PPI less the CPI, we find that with PPI now running at 7.24% annualized and (excuse me while I cough) CPI running at 4.08%, the spread between PPI less CPI widened out this month to 2.99%, near the highest levels since the late 1980’s. A measure of Pipeline Inflation, the new highs in this gauge continue to suggest that Stagflation will be with us all for some time.

Above: Pipeline Inflation – PPI less CPI at a nearly 3% spread = very high.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h3.jpg
Above: Soaring Crude Materials Index for PPI (thin line) versus PPI Finished Goods (thick line)

In addition to the PPI and CPI comparison, we can also examine the pipeline ‘pass thru’ within the Wholesale price chain. To this end, the forward view is quite dim indeed as Crude Materials, the first wrung in the pipeline, are moving up at an annualized (hope you are sitting down) rate of 34.15% through today’s report, compared with the 7.24% for PPI for Finished Goods. That’s a whopping 27.74% percent of forward upside pricing pressure in the pipeline more powerful than anything seen in quite some time and confirming beyond question that the late 1970’s have returned. With Donna Summer about to start a new tour in the summer months ahead, we can only wonder, will Disco balls be next?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h4.jpg

Elsewhere on the ‘stagnation’ side – check that, make it the ‘contraction’ side of the economy -- we found out this morning that Housing (big surprise!) remains ultra depressed. Home Builders started construction on 3.3% fewer homes in May, with Housing Starts falling to an annual adjusted rate of 975,000, the lowest level since the last major recession seen in 1991. In addition, Building Permits fell by 1.3% in May to a seasonally adjusted rate of 969K with Permits for single family homes tumbling 4%. Finally, reflecting this ultra negative sentiment that is now the hallmark of the great Housing Collapse, the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing-market index fell by a point to 18, matching the prior record low seen in its 22-year history. The survey shows that about one in five builders think the housing market is good.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h6.jpg
Above: the Wells Fargo HMI Index – Housing Confidence

In the chart above, we use the HMI (‘housing market index’) as a leading indicator for the broad trend in consumer spending. That’s right, wealth effects, positive or negative, can dictate forward spending patterns and when prices are rising, homes are going down and people don’t have enough income growth to keep up; people begin to feel poorer. In the case of the HMI, it tends to lead by several quarters the directional movement in Personal Consumption Expenditures, a fancy economic term for ‘spending.’ In the chart above, we note that with HMI plunging to new lows, the outlook ahead for the next few quarters for this 70% Consumer spending driven US economy cannot be positive.
Of course, we always marvel at how the media manages to focus on the one grain of potential good news in any economic story, while managing to ignore the other 99% of bad news. So much gets swept right past the harried US public. Take for example the Retail Sales report issued just last week. On Thursday of last week, the Department of Commerce announced that Retail Sales for May 2008 grew by 1% versus April, and grew by 2.5% compared with year earlier (May 2007) data. At first blush, many economists heralded the better than expected data as a sign that US Consumers, freshly in receipt of some $41 Billion in government stimulus payment checks, were dutifully spending their new found riches at the stores and malls of the United States. This report came on the back of a reported surge of 1.80% in retail sales in April, leading some to wonder, if Retail Sales are doing so well, how could the United States possibly be in a recession?

Snippet:

Above: New Home Sales still have a good distance to travel on the downside in order to reach the bottoming zone seen in 1966, 1970, 1974, 1979, 1981 and 1990. Downside momentum still very high.
Thus, we see no cause for a change in the overall analysis which continues to suggest that the US is falling deeper into recession, and that at present, there is no bottom in sight for either housing or the broad US economy.
At the close, stocks ended with a loss of 112.52 index points on the DJIA, with the Dow closing at 12,156.56 ending with a loss of .92%. For the S&P, Tuesday saw the index end with a loss of 9.21 index points to finish at 1350.93, while NASDAQ closed lower with a loss of 17.14 index points at 2457.64. The 10 Year Bond ended with a yield of 4.22%, down .03 basis points while nearby Gold ended at $887.00, up .70 per ounce.



Bruce
Last edited by Warren Forex, Today 10:34pm Reason: To Add Snippet:
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  • #14,210
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:42pm Jun 17, 2008 9:42pm
Quoting oscarfrx
Hi Malaysia.

I saw your analysis in the cable thread and I would like to follow also in this thrade. I am also short at 9549 and I got 8 pips now. Well see what hapen.
Welcome to the club Please notice that I am not making a trade call... I am just reporting my own TRADES with analysis.

If you follow me... follow at your own risk. Just make sure don't turn those green pips into RED. Always place SL on BE or on the green whenever you are on the SAVE side.

If hit SL... nevermind... that will give you time to analyse again either to Re Enter at a Better Price... OR... switch position to go the opposite way.

That's my style.
  • #14,211
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:44pm Jun 17, 2008 9:44pm
Quoting eneloop
Me also on the green, also just moving down my SL to 1 pip on the green. Let's hope I get to learn the lesson: Let the profit runs this time. Thanks Sham!
Lets just hope that 50% and 61.8% White Fibbo get rip off by the BEAR. Anyway... we got nothing to lose anymore since SL already on the GREEN

Minimize loss.... MAXIMIZE PROFIT.
  • #14,212
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:53pm Jun 17, 2008 9:53pm
I'm looking forward for a completion of subwave 5 (cyan) and corrective wave a (magenta or yellow) soon. Preferably, once this completed, I believed price will going upward to perform a corrective wave b 1st. before another bearish continuation to establish major corrective wave in c later this week. Please noted that if the price make a breakout to the bullish continuation line 1, this scenario would be invalid. Good luck.
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  • #14,213
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:58pm Jun 17, 2008 9:58pm
I am travelling to Kedah (North Malaysia) this weekend for a business trip. I might visiting LANGKAWI Island for FISHING mania after that. Anyone wanna join me?

SMS >>> 013-2491533

SHAMX
  • #14,214
  • Jun 17, 2008 10:11pm Jun 17, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting Malaysia
I am travelling to Kedah (North Malaysia) this weekend for a business trip. I might visiting LANGKAWI Island for FISHING mania after that. Anyone wanna join me?

SMS >>> 013-2491533

SHAMX
I've heard Langkawi is a beautiful place and quite famous among Indonesians .. would like to visit someday ..
Have a nice and safe trip to you .. enjoy.
  • #14,215
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:04pm Jun 17, 2008 11:04pm
Hi guys!!!!Seems like majority of the members gained some decent pips yesterday....Lets hope it will continue....
  • #14,216
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:27pm Jun 17, 2008 11:27pm
Quoting mktjong
I've heard Langkawi is a beautiful place and quite famous among Indonesians .. would like to visit someday ..
Have a nice and safe trip to you .. enjoy.
It's a paradise. It consist of 99 islands in total. When high tide... 104 islands... because some islands got separated by the high tide to become two. Just been recognized by the world as one of the GEOPARK. Beautiful coral at Pulau Payar.

I used to work there for 2 years. Cheap Cigarettes and other duty free stuff. I've been to all the small small islands... toured around Langkawi by Kayak

What I love the most is FISHING over there As a Full Time Forex Trader... I have to expose myself with the OUTDOOR Activities... to balance out with the hectic Indoor Job Get a LIFE before it fly away.
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  • #14,217
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:31pm Jun 17, 2008 11:31pm
Those are some beautiful pictures!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #14,218
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:40pm Jun 17, 2008 11:40pm
210.60 is quite a tough support. Will still see if we have strength to break it - or we might bounce again... wait for eu session.. not much news though.
  • #14,219
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:55pm Jun 17, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting eohater
Those are some beautiful pictures!
Look at these beautiful panorama photos taken by me at Langkawi. Once a while got to break away from staring at the charts the whole days.

Just promoting a healthy lifestyle among traders... because we can easily get infected with sorts of illness by doing this job. After all... no point of getting many pips but in the end up in a hospital wad... and still trading on the hospital bed

Keep the FAITH... take a good care of the HEALTH... then we will be fit enough to make money. Mentally and physically healthy. Pocket also healthy

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  • #14,220
  • Jun 18, 2008 12:06am Jun 18, 2008 12:06am
Cable is testing that 50% Median again... looks like a strong BEAR
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