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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #5,401
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:14am Feb 2, 2007 7:14am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Final US Data out, nothing much happening. time to call it a week I guess...
  • #5,402
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:18am Feb 2, 2007 7:18am
After all of that, we are right back where we started from. . . AGAIN.
  • #5,403
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:19am Feb 2, 2007 7:19am
hej folks

the direction is down! tp1 9515, tp2 9360 tp3 9205

ps. cann says so
  • #5,404
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:20am Feb 2, 2007 7:20am
would like to see a dip back into the 1.966's range and pick up a couple of lots for the ride to 2.00.
  • #5,405
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:23am Feb 2, 2007 7:23am
Quoting cannarek
hej folks

the direction is down! tp1 9515, tp2 9360 tp3 9205

ps. cann says so
calling on Henrycarol ....lets get a bit bearish
  • #5,406
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:25am Feb 2, 2007 7:25am
Am I the only one short cable ?
  • #5,407
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:26am Feb 2, 2007 7:26am
what it will be next week ? ..............19580 or 19915?
  • #5,408
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:29am Feb 2, 2007 7:29am
Quoting moneyAA
what it will be next week ? ..............19580 or 19915?
192
  • #5,409
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:32am Feb 2, 2007 7:32am
Quoting Leugimp
2.0037
With or without BOE hike next week? What are U expecting out of it... ?

- OK, if your mom was a guy, blah blah, blah...-...
  • #5,410
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:36am Feb 2, 2007 7:36am
Quoting Leugimp
Gann is dead and so is the down move from 9900's
I have said 'cann says so' - and cann is alive and very well
  • #5,411
  • Feb 2, 2007 7:37am Feb 2, 2007 7:37am
For those expecting analysis here....

This is our NFP so far....

4hr chart.
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28/cesarnc/feb2-2.jpg
  • #5,412
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:13am Feb 2, 2007 8:13am
Quoting cesarnc
If this is not the channel to 2.0000.....

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28/cesarnc/feb2.jpg
Is that a linear regression channel? Otherwise I don't know whether that is a "true" channel or just two trendlines (the blue ones)?
  • #5,413
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:20am Feb 2, 2007 8:20am
Quoting Leugimp
Because they're not his pants
have been watching this thread since the beginning and can't tell you and cesarnc how much i enjoy your banter, especially during dead times associated with trading. also have begun to understand the method behind the madness of your trading and has been a welcome addition. keep up the good entertaining work.
  • #5,414
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:30am Feb 2, 2007 8:30am
Interesting all the opinions in here. That is why there is always someone to sell or buy our orders. I take both an intraday and longterm view on the markets. Intraday I watch market cycles as players enter and exit the market. It is demonstrated on my multiscreen chart. Europe closes intraday trades between 10:15 and 11:00 est everyday. If they do not close enough to move the market but the a little I usually take another trade in the direction of thed largest move of the day, which was usd postive. If you save and blow up in picture viewer the multiscreen shot you can see how cable was propped by euro weakness across the board. Again, cross action is heavy. Is usd really stronger or are crosses weaker. One thought though, not alot of weakeness on weak US Data.

Second view-long term: Cable did a one touch on the long term trendline. Not it's usual habit as shown the daily chart. Volatility this week has mostly been on the crosses. A strong argument for another touch and close near the trendline now in the 9550 area could be made especially considering euro weakness. Technicals are fun aren't they? So many views. Right now multi tf ma's are starting to cable (braid up) so break of 9650 area could give the needed stops to drive it down. After all, most moves are liquidations, not new selling or buying. All bears need to do is give it nudge.

Just my opinion. I am short but probably will not hold through the weekend unless it gets down a ways.
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  • #5,415
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:51am Feb 2, 2007 8:51am
Quoting Bradone
Interesting all the opinions in here. That is why there is always someone to sell or buy our orders. I take both an intraday and longterm view on the markets. Intraday I watch market cycles as players enter and exit the market. It is demonstrated on my multiscreen chart. Europe closes intraday trades between 10:15 and 11:00 est everyday. If they do not close enough to move the market but the a little I usually take another trade in the direction of thed largest move of the day, which was usd postive. If you save and blow up in picture viewer the multiscreen shot you can see how cable was propped by euro weakness across the board. Again, cross action is heavy. Is usd really stronger or are crosses weaker. One thought though, not alot of weakeness on weak US Data.

Second view-long term: Cable did a one touch on the long term trendline. Not it's usual habit as shown the daily chart. Volatility this week has mostly been on the crosses. A strong argument for another touch and close near the trendline now in the 9550 area could be made especially considering euro weakness. Technicals are fun aren't they? So many views. Right now multi tf ma's are starting to cable (braid up) so break of 9650 area could give the needed stops to drive it down. After all, most moves are liquidations, not new selling or buying. All bears need to do is give it nudge.

Just my opinion. I am short but probably will not hold through the weekend unless it gets down a ways.
Interesting views, especially on your interpretation of TA signals and how it can relate to order flow speculation. Although I wouldn't necessarily consider that too long term a view it is nonetheless worthy of careful consideration.

I see the possibility of a move through some stops to the shortside with a little nudge to get that momentum flowing, I just wonder how much additional selling will be added to that move,as oppesed to using this shorter term momentum to pick up cheap inventory. This move up has all but negated the view that we are headed down to low 9000 anytime soon in my opinion, and the recent longer term action in price, coupled with the bounce off of key areas would lead me to believe that the original move north is yet to be completed. Bottom line is I dont know what will happen so the only thing that will save me in my trades is to plan within the realm of possibilities in areas of least risk and not add to positions until a clearer picture has formed. Its tough though to go by fridays regardless of what happens.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,416
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:59am Feb 2, 2007 8:59am
Quoting gnspdr33
have been watching this thread since the beginning and can't tell you and cesarnc how much i enjoy your banter, especially during dead times associated with trading. also have begun to understand the method behind the madness of your trading and has been a welcome addition. keep up the good entertaining work.
I'm not making a living out of forex, and hope there's a "yet" in this statement. But my job is demanding a little from me at the beginning of this year.

So now, I spend a good part of my days making a few bucks, learning about this exciting market and laughing a lot here among a lot of unbelievably smart people.... THIS IS A GIFT FROM GOD, thinking about the majority of the people in this planet.

Sometimes I may get excessive in the jokes and I apologize for that. But it helps me a lot during tough times as choppy markets, annoying drawdowns and my stupid losses. Hope this is the same for you all.
  • #5,417
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:07am Feb 2, 2007 9:07am
Quoting SunTrader
Is that a linear regression channel? Otherwise I don't know whether that is a "true" channel or just two trendlines (the blue ones)?
No, the blue ones formed a channel that was messed up changing the timeframe... And I don't know if we can call this channel broken with today's move. So I'm keeping it..

But the bonce at an important trendline (9480s) and the consecutive higher closes - even with pin-bars are forming this sort of "glideslope" that usually is followed by and acute spike up.

I don't have my money in it. But I'm trading the days based on it. And giving more room for long positions and scalping short positions - to avoid trading against the trend
  • #5,418
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:10am Feb 2, 2007 9:10am
Quoting Leugimp
If after giving back alot you are still up 10 pips, sounds to me like your doin alright. Nothing that I look at is valuable other than the porn running in the background. It is the compilation of all of these views and methods that gives me any kind of insight into what I am doing. FF is a great place to learn alot of things, many may be garbage, some are good, but hey, you need to know what is garbage in order to know what isn't so I really think you are at the right place. Observe and investigate and investigate more. And if you have some decent money, I can teach you - but my services are.....wait how much did i lose this month .........oh yeah.... my services will cost $4000.00 per hour. I know it sounds like alot, but what I can teach you, well.......you can teach someone else for $4000.00 per hour and if you only teach two people, you will be in the black.


Hey dude wats ur offer which can be learn by one hour & also which costs 4000 per hour well tell me more & also how it is helpfull to U......
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #5,419
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:11am Feb 2, 2007 9:11am
Quoting Leugimp
Interesting views, especially on your interpretation of TA signals and how it can relate to order flow speculation. Although I wouldn't necessarily consider that too long term a view it is nonetheless worthy of careful consideration.

I see the possibility of a move through some stops to the shortside with a little nudge to get that momentum flowing, I just wonder how much additional selling will be added to that move,as opposed to using this shorter term momentum to pick up cheap inventory. This move up has all but negated the view that we are headed down to low 9000 anytime soon in my opinion, and the recent longer term action in price, coupled with the bounce off of key areas would lead me to believe that the original move north is yet to be completed. Bottom line is I dont know what will happen so the only thing that will save me in my trades is to plan within the realm of possibilities in areas of least risk and not add to positions until a clearer picture has formed. Its tough though to go by fridays regardless of what happens.
My view is not long term, I feel strongly we have a move up to complete. What I observed today was a move up on weak US data that only lasted minutes in the scheme of things and then the "big" move of the day was usd positive. Then cable was propped backup by euro weakness as evidenced in my cross action shot by the strong move down on eurgbp. When that stabilized and Europe closed few of their shorts on settlement of intraday timeframe, I chose to go short. Cable is a fickle lady though, Queen and all that.

I have attached a 15m chart that shows ma's from multiple timeframes real close in so gives you a view of what different tf players are thinking. When they get in this close it can be easy pickins especially as liquidity lessens on Friday afternoon. Hence the expression, never fade a Friday.

Additional food for thought on order flow analysis, the move to the high yesterday was stop driven, then no one home to provide additional buying, same occurence today. Stronger argument for me. Time compression and lack of follow through once stops (liquidation mostly, apparently) were fired makes for a building argument for short in my opinion.

Brad
Attached Image
  • #5,420
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:14am Feb 2, 2007 9:14am
This move is perfect for the downtrend. We came back up to exactly the 61.8 fib of the move from 1.9917 to 1.9583 and now it looks like we end the week with an upside down daily doji candlestick. Very bearish technicals for next week.
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