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Daily GBP/JPY Breakout System

  • #21
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:08am Jun 17, 2008 11:08am
Quoting lcfxtrader
Bill,

If I am using IBFX, what is the 1 hour candle start time and end time in GMT? Do you have any idea what the max consecutive DD has been before returning back to break even?
I have a few ideas that may help the performance of the system and an idea about money management that I will share later. Thanks, Lcfx
Start with the 1H candle designated 1300 and end with the one designated 2000. That will give you the 8 hours leading up to 2100 GMT.

I don't have any idea about the performance of the daily method. I haven't backtested it.

I'll be glad to hear your ideas.

Thanks
  • #22
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:26am Jun 17, 2008 11:26am
Thank you very much bill and others for this system, finaly something which has winning pottential in this crazy forex market. My first winner was this past sunday 100 pips.
  • #23
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:41am Jun 17, 2008 11:41am
Quoting billbss
Smurf,
How did you do?

GBP/JPY 100 S 211.810 210.819 991 917.38 0.00 6/17/2008 03:19 6/17/2008 06:28

I put the trade in and walked away. I know it is not a walk away system. When i went to bed nothing. got up this morning it had took.

I copied and paste my results above.

The only problem i am or will have is, i am not able to be at the computer if it goes to a loss to double the lott.

I will settle for a break even on a losing day if it goes that way. If not it is just a loser for that day.

I am using the hourly bars from fxcm. I used your numbers from yesterday.
I will dowmload IBX and see the numbers using a 4 hou chart.


Looking back at fxcm charts i looked at 900-1700. Hi 212.74. Lo212.07
It was not 100 so i added the next 4 hours. hi212.81 Lo 211.85.

I would have added 1 plus spread 7 would have added or subtracted 8.

My straddle would have been as follows;

HI 212.90 I had to use the 5-1700
TP 213.90
SL 211.90 the difference would be 98 so i made it a even 100. I have to look back over the thread to find out how to do it by the rules.


If i done it that way would have made the sell.

My buy would have never took because of my numbers.


Back to learning the basics to the system.

Are my numbers and time right?

If i am wrong someone tell me.
  • #24
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:55am Jun 17, 2008 11:55am
Quoting smurf
GBP/JPY 100 S 211.810 210.819 991 917.38 0.00 6/17/2008 03:19 6/17/2008 06:28

I put the trade in and walked away. I know it is not a walk away system. When i went to bed nothing. got up this morning it had took.

I copied and paste my results above.

The only problem i am or will have is, i am not able to be at the computer if it goes to a loss to double the lott.

I will settle for a break even on a losing day if it goes that way. If not it is just a loser for that day.

I am using the hourly bars from fxcm. I used your numbers from yesterday.
I will dowmload IBX and see the numbers using a 4 hou chart.


Looking back at fxcm charts i looked at 900-1700. Hi 212.74. Lo212.07
It was not 100 so i added the next 4 hours. hi212.81 Lo 211.85.

I would have added 1 plus spread 7 would have added or subtracted 8.

My straddle would have been as follows;

HI 212.90 I had to use the 5-1700
TP 213.90
SL 211.90 the difference would be 98 so i made it a even 100. I have to look back over the thread to find out how to do it by the rules.


If i done it that way would have made the sell.

My buy would have never took because of my numbers.


Back to learning the basics to the system.

Are my numbers and time right?

If i am wrong someone tell me.
I'll have to get an FXCM demo to check your numbers. I don't think FXCM keeps GMT.
As soon as I get it figured out, I'll post what I find.
  • #25
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:04pm Jun 17, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting lcfxtrader
I was thinking of using a spreadsheet that would divide the account into 5 or 10 subaccounts and use a multipler (percentage basis (ex:.015%)) for each subaccount to determine the position size. Once the system starts DD by X pips, then start trading the next subaccount. Once the DD returns to break even you will have an overall gain and then redistribute the entire account balance over all the subaccounts. This is based on the premise that the system is overall profitable and will return back to BE after max DD pips are met. It would also be interesting to see the stats of taking a trade only after a losing day to see if this increases the hit rate. It really would take some backtesting to determine a good value for the max DD number. Let me know if you have any questions and or want to run with the ideas.
That sounds interesting.
Why don't you implement it and post your results here?
Good ideas
  • #26
  • Edited 1:13pm Jun 17, 2008 1:02pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting smurf


Looking back at fxcm charts i looked at 900-1700. Hi 212.74. Lo212.07
It was not 100 so i added the next 4 hours. hi212.81 Lo 211.85.

I would have added 1 plus spread 7 would have added or subtracted 8.

My straddle would have been as follows;

HI 212.90 I had to use the 5-1700
TP 213.90
SL 211.90 the difference would be 98 so i made it a even 100. I have to look back over the thread to find out how to do it by the rules.

OK- Your times are right. You went back 12 hours as you should have when 8 hours was < 100 pip range.

Your High was 212.81
Low was 211.85.

You were 4 pips less that 100.

Add 2 pips to the High = 212.83
Subtract 2 pips from the Low = 211.83

Now, add 1 pip + spread to the High = 212.91
Subtract 1 pip from the Low = 211.82

Your BUY STOP would have been 212.91
Your SELL STOP would have been 211.82

That's a difference of 109 pips.

So:

BUY STOP 212.91
SL 211.82
TP 214.00

SELL STOP 211.82
SL 212.91
TP 210.73

I think that's correct unless I made a mistake in arithmetic.

BTW- You can't use IBFX 4H bars for this daily version, you have to use 1H bars.
The 4H bar begins at 2000 GMT. It's in mid bar when 2100 rolls around.
  • #27
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:15pm Jun 17, 2008 2:15pm
Even if I'm trading only the weekly system,

I think the daily system needs to be adapted on the daily range.

The min 100 pips on GBP/JPY might be easy to achieve during a week but maybe not during one day.

On my daily Eur/Usd I currently take a min range of 50 pips (with a tiny profit for the day) but I might test to adopt maybe to the ATR? thoughts?

LiF
  • #28
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:57pm Jun 17, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting LostInForex
Even if I'm trading only the weekly system,

I think the daily system needs to be adapted on the daily range.

The min 100 pips on GBP/JPY might be easy to achieve during a week but maybe not during one day.

On my daily Eur/Usd I currently take a min range of 50 pips (with a tiny profit for the day) but I might test to adopt maybe to the ATR? thoughts?

LiF
I don't think that asking for 100-150 pips a day on this pair is a problem.
I think where the problem will show up is expecting it to travel back over 300 pips, to hit profit, in case it gets stopped out.
I think in case of stop outs, it will be rare that we hit the 2x TP, we're asking for.
We don't have to hit it to be profitable overall. We'll just have to see how this works.
  • #29
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:59pm Jun 17, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting lcfxtrader
Here's the 1st go at the MM spreadsheet. Use at your own risk. I set it up for 10 subaccounts and it only draws off of 5 subaccounts if max DD is reached. No idea what max DD is for this system I plugged in 1000 with 250 pip steps. Max DD on a $5000 account is about 30% if using .20% setting. Adjust for your own risk tolerance.
Thank you.
I downloaded it and will start working on it.
Thanks again.
  • #30
  • Jun 17, 2008 3:53pm Jun 17, 2008 3:53pm
Quote
I don't think that asking for 100-150 pips a day on this pair is a problem.
I think where the problem will show up is expecting it to travel back over 300 pips, to hit profit, in case it gets stopped out.
I think in case of stop outs, it will be rare that we hit the 2x TP, we're asking for.
We don't have to hit it to be profitable overall. We'll just have to see how this works.

I dont think that the 100 pips is a problem either.

But as you said the 2 x TP when one side has been stopped will be hard to achieve.

I usually place my trade before going to bed (set and forget ) and have a short check in the morning before going to work.
Last week I got stopped on a long trade and was happy to see that the short hit the TP for a breakeven day.

The idea to let the daily trades run till end of week sounds interesting.
  • #31
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:14pm Jun 17, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting LostInForex
I dont think that the 100 pips is a problem either.

But as you said the 2 x TP when one side has been stopped will be hard to achieve.

I usually place my trade before going to bed (set and forget ) and have a short check in the morning before going to work.
Last week I got stopped on a long trade and was happy to see that the short hit the TP for a breakeven day.

The idea to let the daily trades run till end of week sounds interesting.
That might be what we wind up doing. I suspect it will be.
  • #32
  • Edited 4:42pm Jun 17, 2008 4:25pm | Edited 4:42pm
Today's numbers- IBFX (9 pip spread)
June 17

BUY STOP - 212.08
SL - 210.6
TP - 213.56

SELL STOP - 210.6
SL - 212.08
TP - 209.12
  • #33
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:29pm Jun 17, 2008 4:29pm
Just a thought...

nomask's original TP was 2x the range for the einitial trade, and 3x the range for the second trade if the first trade was stopped out for a loss.

If we use his ratio of 2 to 3, then by inference, if the first trade is 1X the range, then the 2nd trade should be 1.5x the range. For example, if the range is 100, then the first trade TP = 100, and the second trade if triggered would be TP = 150 (not the 200 we are currently using). The profit for nomask's ratio is certainly more attainable (at least in theory). This would still result in a profit overall (although somewhat diminished).

I feel more comfortable attempting to achieve 150 pips as opposed to 200 pips.

What do you think, Bill?
  • #34
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:40pm Jun 17, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Just a thought...

nomask's original TP was 2x the range for the einitial trade, and 3x the range for the second trade if the first trade was stopped out for a loss.

If we use his ratio of 2 to 3, then by inference, if the first trade is 1X the range, then the 2nd trade should be 1.5x the range. For example, if the range is 100, then the first trade TP = 100, and the second trade if triggered would be TP = 150 (not the 200 we are currently using). The profit for nomask's ratio is certainly more attainable (at least in theory). This would still result in a profit overall (although somewhat diminished).

I feel more comfortable attempting to achieve 150 pips as opposed to 200 pips.

What do you think, Bill?
Sure we can try it.
I'll try to rearrange my post#1 to track both set ups.
  • #35
  • Jun 17, 2008 8:00pm Jun 17, 2008 8:00pm
if the short is trigger, we may have to be carefull, there is a lot of resistants, it may not book us for so many pips, just a tought.

thanks and sorry , i didn't want to offend someone with my view.
  • #36
  • Jun 17, 2008 8:29pm Jun 17, 2008 8:29pm
Quoting billbss
Today's numbers- IBFX (9 pip spread)
June 17

BUY STOP - 212.08
SL - 210.6
TP - 213.56

SELL STOP - 210.6
SL - 212.08
TP - 209.12
can't wait for the result
Lazy Forex
  • #37
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:14pm Jun 17, 2008 9:14pm
Quoting billbss
Due to the success of nomask's Weekly GBP/JPY Breakout System, this is a thread attempting to apply the same rules on a daily basis. I don't see any reason it wouldn't work.
Hi Bill. It looks like this has potential, even if it requires some tweeking. I'll have to check this thread out now and then . . .



Ron
  • #38
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:37am Jun 18, 2008 5:37am
Quoting billbss
Today's numbers- IBFX (9 pip spread)
June 17

BUY STOP - 212.08
SL - 210.6
TP - 213.56

SELL STOP - 210.6
SL - 212.08
TP - 209.12

I have from fxcm;
Buy 212.11
Sl 210.63
TP 213.59


SELL 210.63
SL 212.11
TP 209.15


I am close Bill. Thanks again.

It has been in a while . Will ride it out.

Lets hope for 2 good days.
  • #39
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:07pm Jun 18, 2008 4:07pm
I am taking a loss of 61 for today. Any suggestions for tonight?

Today did not make the 100 range. Even with in the last 12 bars.

Will it be a good time to sit this on out or go back 16 bars.


Fxcm using 16 bars is as follows.

BUY 211.59
TP 212.88
SL 210.30



SELL 210.30
TP 209.01
SL 211.59


ANY THOUGHTS FOR TONIGHT?
  • #40
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:11pm Jun 18, 2008 4:11pm
Today's numbers- IBFX (9 spread)

BUY STOP = 211.79
SL = 210.68
TP = 212.9

SELL STOP = 210.68
SL = 211.79
TP = 209.57
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