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Help needed in OANDA + users from Malaysia 105 replies

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  • #14,181
  • Jun 17, 2008 5:30am Jun 17, 2008 5:30am
Quoting Zack
you added your short? at times like this always dont know what to do..seems too late to short..therefore staying aside watch sham n others jumping in joy..
This is not "falling knife" situation, it is low on lower low, and with the momentum still intact, why not.

But IF USDJPY makes a sudden change of direction or news coming out, then, need to hit the brake.

Having said all that, it is still better holding on the original short then entering at a lower position. Risk factor. That is still what I am trying to learn from Sham.
  • #14,182
  • Jun 17, 2008 5:39am Jun 17, 2008 5:39am
Quoting Malaysia
"King says we are now facing a period of rising inflation and slowing growth..." >>>> More like STAGFLATION as I mentioned.

 At least he told the truth. No frill... no hide... no deception... no lie... easy to understand. Honest guy.. I like. Long live the KING
That's why I said I respect Uncle KING more than Uncle Ben and Uncle Trichet last time. He is an honest guy. He knows what is going on right now during this crisis time and don't lie. This will damage the Pound Sterling now... but I am sure it will recuperate better than USD.

We just watch if Uncle BEN or Uncle Trichet dare to HIKE the IR after this as... they are also know the danger of HIKING the IR while the CRISIS still in the air.

Just have a look at UsdCad chart... what had happened after the BOC HIKED the rate?

If Canadian economy still not doing good and keep on deteriorating... BOC would cut the IR again and that HIKE only casing more damage. However, exception to the CANADIAN economy as OIL is plenty there.
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  • #14,183
  • Jun 17, 2008 5:59am Jun 17, 2008 5:59am
Ok, just closed all my short positions. Might drop even further but enough for time being. Would wait for more news later.

Short 1.96332 Closed for +50 pips
Short 1.96332 Closed for +100 pips
Short 1.95619 Closed for +45 pips.
  • #14,184
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:00am Jun 17, 2008 6:00am
Quoting Chang
Ok, just closed all my short positions. Might drop even further but enough for time being. Would wait for more news later.

Short 1.96332 Closed for +50 pips
Short 1.96332 Closed for +100 pips
Short 1.95619 Closed for +45 pips.


As for me... I'll closed the SHORTs when I see REVERSAL CS... meaning... Bullish CS on H1 or CS with long wick/shadow at the bottom when It test SUPPORT line. As right now... both GEPPY and CABLE is testing SUPPORT line. Might break it with still strong sentiment of SHORTING the POUND STERLING.

Who dare to go LONG on Pound Sterling right now anyway Perhaps... massive profit taking is taking place that make the FALL halted for a while.
  • #14,185
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:06am Jun 17, 2008 6:06am
Quoting eneloop
The down trend momentum is still there! Way to go further South.
Just to illustrate the Momentum using Stoch Histogram indicator. The 3rd in the Indicator windows showing Green if above 0 and red if below 0. So now all M1, M5 and M30 are all red!
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  • #14,186
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:15am Jun 17, 2008 6:15am
Quoting eneloop
Just to illustrate the Momentum using Stoch Histogram indicator. The 3rd in the Indicator windows showing Green if above 0 and red if below 0. So now all M1, M5 and M30 are all red!
Plus it BROKE the Triangle Support again and also Broke 61.8% Retracement.

A minor retracement upward can be expected but with this kind of sentiment... 100% Retracement to the south is possible. For today.... a little bit hard to go there because already moved about 200pips High Low. Perhaps tomorow onward... more down movement can be expected. I will just SELL FROM BOUNCE as long as CABLE don't retaliate back above 1.9600.

T.A.Y.O.R.
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  • #14,187
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:20am Jun 17, 2008 6:20am
As for GEPPY... strong Support at 61.8% Retracement so far... and UJ still Bullish but halting at the daily Pivot.
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  • #14,188
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:26am Jun 17, 2008 6:26am
Quoting Malaysia
Total profit as right now... more than 100pips already and counting

There you go!!! More surge downward more than 150pips profit and counting
  • #14,189
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:28am Jun 17, 2008 6:28am
Hayya'alal Solah.... Hayya'alal Falah!!!
  • #14,190
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:30am Jun 17, 2008 6:30am
Quoting Malaysia
I will just SELL FROM BOUNCE as long as CABLE don't retaliate back above 1.9600.

T.A.Y.O.R.

Yes, exactly, that is the idea. But with us that do not have your skill, we need some indicators as a guideline, that is why I use the Stoch Histogram on several time frames to tell me whether the trend is still there, so that I can SELL FROM BOUNCE, but scared that the retracement becomes an uptrend.

P/s I also use supports/Resistance, Fibo etc.
  • #14,191
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:05am Jun 17, 2008 7:05am
Quoting Malaysia

There you go!!! More surge downward more than 150pips profit and counting
Taking out all the profit now. I am done for today. Alhamdulillah. News from US coming out in half an hour time.
  • #14,192
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:18am Jun 17, 2008 7:18am
That 61.8% Fibbo on Geppy seems holding strong. Plus UJ is breaking the Daily Pivot upward.

Risk Appetite for Carry Trades seems still strong. I just took that LONG for Geppy Carry Trade. Tight SL... only 50pips SL. This is BUY FROM DIP action for my Carry Trade... If it ever gonna shoot UPWARD... I gonna let it floats for days with SL at BE.

Very dangerous strategy to stand in front of a moving train... Perhaps the train already halted at the 61.8% Fibbo and it's time to continue the journey NORTH.

If I am wrong about this... 50pips at stake.

As for CABLE... waiting patiently for the Retracement to SELL FROM BOUNCE... perhaps tomorrow... Asian session most of the time will do the price correction.

T.A.Y.O.R.
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  • #14,193
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:22am Jun 17, 2008 7:22am
Quoting Malaysia
Taking out all the profit now. I am done for today. Alhamdulillah. News from US coming out in half an hour time.

alhamdullillah..congrate bro...
  • #14,194
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:24am Jun 17, 2008 7:24am
Quoting tma_21
alhamdullillah..congrate bro...
I hope everyone are on the GREEN today... that was an easy Trade after all... however some hiccup in the beginning with the Green CPI... even so... did covered the LOSS with even profit some more.
  • #14,195
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:26am Jun 17, 2008 7:26am
Quoting Malaysia
That 61.8% Fibbo on Geppy seems holding strong. Plus UJ is breaking the Daily Pivot upward.

Risk Appetite for Carry Trades seems still strong. I just took that LONG for Geppy Carry Trade. Tight SL... only 50pips SL. This is BUY FROM DIP action for my Carry Trade... If it ever gonna shoot UPWARD... I gonna let it floats for days with SL at BE.

Very dangerous strategy to stand in front of a moving train... Perhaps the train already halted at the 61.8% Fibbo and it's time to continue the journey NORTH.

If I am wrong about this... 50pips at stake.

As for CABLE... waiting patiently for the Retracement to SELL FROM BOUNCE... perhaps tomorrow... Asian session most of the time will do the price correction.

T.A.Y.O.R.

It start to SHOOT UP already .... News coming out in less than 5 mins time!!! Tighten your seatbelt!!!
  • #14,196
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:38am Jun 17, 2008 7:38am
Quoting Malaysia
It start to SHOOT UP already .... News coming out in less than 5 mins time!!! Tighten your seatbelt!!!
Uhhh... Mixed news... Green and Red... market still confuse where to go currently. I am closing that TRADE at BE. Enough for today... I am signing out.
  • #14,197
  • Edited 11:44am Jun 17, 2008 7:42am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting Malaysia
Uhhh... Mixed news... Green and Red... market still confuse where to go currently. I am closing that TRADE at BE. Enough for today... I am signing out.
That is what seemed to happen when there is several news all come out. Good night and rest well and let's fought another battle tomorrow.

GBP/USD:
GBP Outperforms On Inflation Concerns/Short Covering
Sydney, June 17:
The GBP/USD traded to two-week highs yesterday and the GBP even outperformed the EUR due to expectations that UK CPI later today will bolster the case for BOE rate hikes and a very short market paring back. The GBP/USD gained around 0.8% against the USD and JPY and over 0.20% against the EUR. Stops in the GBP/USD were triggered above 1.9560 and 1.9640 to a high of 1.9687 before pulling back below 1.9650 into the US close.

Recent IMM data showed specs have been running short the GBP and traders say the data reflects the broader market, as weak UK growth data and stagflation concerns boosted the bearish GBP case in recent weeks. The FX market is squarely focused on central bank expectations and the hawkish turn in BOE expectations has forced shorts to cover. UK CPI later today is expected to increase to 3.2% Y/Y and force BOE Governor to write a letter of explanation to Treasury.

Hourly support in the GBP/USD has formed around 1.9625 and a break below 1.9620 could see a gap filled towards 1.9575. The 20-day MA around 1.9675 is resistance on the day and a daily close above that level would be bullish. The GBP/USD trades 1.9635/40. -- ThomsonReuters.com


Stagflation (Currently Malaysian Sham's favorite term)【經】停滯型膨脹;膨脹性蕭條;滯脹
  • #14,198
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:54pm Jun 17, 2008 12:54pm
At this moment, price just bounce back after touched my bearish reversal bias line. I believed wave 5 already completed and preferably looking forward to see a bearish reversal trend to perform the corrective a, b and c later this week. Unless the price make a true breakout to the bullish continuation line 1, this scenario would still valid. Please look for another bearish continuation signal later from BSTS. Good luck.
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  • #14,199
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:08pm Jun 17, 2008 7:08pm
Quoting Malaysia

As for CABLE... waiting patiently for the Retracement to SELL FROM BOUNCE... perhaps tomorrow... Asian session most of the time will do the price correction.

It's ranging still after the Retracement until around 50% median. Now creating a FLAG FORMATION. Can place PO Sell and PO Buy outside the Flag to catch the BREAKOUT movement.

However, I already placed my premature SHORT with SL above 1.9600 and above 61.8% Fibbo. That is my SELL FROM BOUNCE.

That is about 50pips SL. But my TP will be around 100 to 200pips.

4:30pm GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif MPC Meeting Minutes

Uncle KING already giving out a hint yesterday regarding the danger of IR HIKE during STAGFLATION. He also will make a speech later on.

2:30am GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif BOE Governor King Speaks

Trade At Your Own Risk!!!
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  • #14,200
  • Jun 17, 2008 8:35pm Jun 17, 2008 8:35pm
Downtrend Channel still valid.
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