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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #121
  • Feb 2, 2007 5:04am Feb 2, 2007 5:04am
  •  vrama
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: BE at right place@right time = LUCK | 210 Posts
Phillip, thanks for sharing your stategy, which is interesting and usefull.
All things are difficult before they are easy.
  • #122
  • Feb 2, 2007 5:20am Feb 2, 2007 5:20am
Just another warning signal. When the MACD comes down or up in such a straight line it means the speed is going to change. The direction is not definitely known beforehand.
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  • #123
  • Feb 2, 2007 6:31am Feb 2, 2007 6:31am
Quoting DireXiv
Just curious if anyone is trying to play non farm payroll at 8:30? What are you thoughts and how are you planning the trade. Or are you sitting out the trade and calling it a week since it's friday?

Phillip - great exercise thanks for putting it together. I'm very curious to see how I come out in relation to your picks.

I don't think it would be wise to trade during the NFP news. A lot of bad things could happen. And I don't see any clear signs setting up on the 4hr MACD. However, just for fun in my demo account I may trade 1 mini lot. It appears we might be getting a BUY signal setting up for GBP/USD and EUR/USD and a sell on USD/JPY. But once again...I'm only guessing that it's forming that way so I'm not going to trade any real money! There could be spikes up and down before the trades actually go in my favor.

Also, if you noticed I mentioned the USD/JPY pair which Phillip does use in his method. I have tested it all week with good results. I did 4 trades on that pair and all ended up with positive pips! I traded it the same way as Phillip's system says, with one exception. For the MACD levels, you need to change them to read 0.45, 0.30, 0.15, 0.0, -0.15, -0.30, -0.45. If any one else is trading this pair, please share your results. Thanks!
  • #124
  • Feb 2, 2007 6:41am Feb 2, 2007 6:41am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Just another warning signal. When the MACD comes down or up in such a straight line it means the speed is going to change. The direction is not definitely known beforehand.

Exactly! No known direction, that's why I'm just going to play in my demo account and not risk any real money. My guess is that EUR/USD will spike down then continue uptrend...but if I'm wrong, no harm with fake money! Good call Phillip!
  • #125
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:28am Feb 2, 2007 8:28am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Exactly! No known direction, that's why I'm just going to play in my demo account and not risk any real money. My guess is that EUR/USD will spike down then continue uptrend...but if I'm wrong, no harm with fake money! Good call Phillip!

Looks like I was wrong! Another lesson learned! Price spike up and then went WAYYYYY down! Have a good weekend everyone!
  • #126
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:32am Feb 2, 2007 8:32am
Took a part of the downmove. 19 Pips on 2 lots. Took profit on Fib 61% of nearest hi-lo. Can still go down to 1.2960 (89SMA on 4 hour chart)
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  • #127
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:35am Feb 2, 2007 8:35am
Congrats Phillip. Nice job!
  • #128
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:43am Feb 2, 2007 8:43am
Philip,
Is it only EUR/USD that is traded with the system? Because all of the graphs show the euro.
  • #129
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:03am Feb 2, 2007 9:03am
Quoting sarama001
Philip,
Is it only EUR/USD that is traded with the system? Because all of the graphs show the euro.
This strategy is definitely also for the GpbUsd. It is just that I studied only the EurUsd for the last two years when paper trading that I prefer it because I know its movement. I made that decision to know one pair well as to know a bit of some. I will make a point in doing some analyses on the GbpUsd this week. I have nothing against the GbpUsd fans.
Have a great weekend
  • #130
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:08am Feb 2, 2007 9:08am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Took a part of the downmove. 19 Pips on 2 lots. Took profit on Fib 61% of nearest hi-lo. Can still go down to 1.2960 (89SMA on 4 hour chart)

Hope you still had a few pips open...price did go down to the 89SMA! Nice Call! I'm really beginning to see how to use the MA's.
  • #131
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:09am Feb 2, 2007 9:09am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Took a part of the downmove. 19 Pips on 2 lots. Took profit on Fib 61% of nearest hi-lo. Can still go down to 1.2960 (89SMA on 4 hour chart)

Yes!! Brilliant Phillip! Just touch my 89 SMA (interbank fx low is 1.2961),
then bounce up to 1.2970. Wow!

Quick question for your phillip : What time frame for your posted chart in post #126?
I've switched various TF on my chart and my MACD doesn't look like yours??
Must be the difference in broker/timing. Just curious what TF you use
to trade news?
  • #132
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:23am Feb 2, 2007 9:23am
Nice work Phillip. At this point, I can't allow myself to trade on news... to risky for me.

In anycase, I was able to take 12 pips off the EUR/AUD on a MACD trend and it followed the profit levels/ma's very nicely too. It's continuing down, but I was moving my stop for at least something because the spread was a little large, so I wanted to cover it as soon as possible.
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DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #133
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:24am Feb 2, 2007 9:24am
Quoting fjfx
Yes!! Brilliant Phillip! Just touch my 89 SMA (interbank fx low is 1.2961),
then bounce up to 1.2970. Wow!

Quick question for your phillip : What time frame for your posted chart in post #126?
I've switched various TF on my chart and my MACD doesn't look like yours??
Must be the difference in broker/timing. Just curious what TF you use
to trade news?
Sorry it is the 5 min chart. Dont give notice to the MACD or MA's on that chart. I used the same 4hour chart, just set it to 5 min. I was only interested in the 8EMA. That is what I use to trade news. As long as the 5 min bar price is below the 8EMA I stay in.
  • #134
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:31am Feb 2, 2007 9:31am
Hi Phillip,

Could you please post your MACD that you use on the 4h , because on all the documents you posted I can not duplicate exactly yours. Do you use the setting MACD SMA 1 or EMA 1 because in MT4 I can't seem to change and use EMA 1. Did you do that?
thanks!
  • #135
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:32am Feb 2, 2007 9:32am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Took a part of the downmove. 19 Pips on 2 lots. Took profit on Fib 61% of nearest hi-lo. Can still go down to 1.2960 (89SMA on 4 hour chart)
Hai Phil, I am a beginner in Fx trading. I found out your 4H strategy is very easy to understand and did try 2 trades before this NFP. Fisrt +17 pips but the second (as you warned straight MACD is unknown direction), the NFP spike stopped me at -24 pips. But recovered when followed down moved.
I still need to learn the MACD and MA as per your notes. I really appreciate your efford and time in making notes, sharing them and above all, update and post for others to compare and learn from them.
May I know if weekend/holiday data is still valid for MACD and MA's constructions? And what time frame was your above mentioned chart?

Thanks a million and keep-up the good deeds...
  • #136
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:33am Feb 2, 2007 9:33am
Quoting DireXiv
Nice work Phillip. At this point, I can't allow myself to trade on news... to risky for me.

In anycase, I was able to take 12 pips off the EUR/AUD on a MACD trend and it followed the profit levels/ma's very nicely too. It's continuing down, but I was moving my stop for at least something because the spread was a little large, so I wanted to cover it as soon as possible.
Very nice trade.

News is to risky. I only trade it from time to time. Not on a regular basis. When it goes the one way and turn around I like it.
  • #137
  • Feb 2, 2007 10:01am Feb 2, 2007 10:01am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Here are the deals I got on the exercise as well as commentary about the EurUsd deal yesterday.

Look at all those deals and see which ones you would have taken and which ones not. Look at the support and resistance around the MA's as well as the trendlines. Very interesting. I will post the discussions the way I would have done it in 24 hours time more or less. Hope you learn something out of this.
Thanks for the "answers" to your exercise.

Allow me to post what I tried to do when you first assigned the exercise earlier. Again, just trying to get inside your head and see if my thought process is in line with yours .

I marked the "reason" for each MACD signal based on your notes.
The only one not in your notes is the "aggressive reversal" cos there's
no price action/ pattern; simply a U-turn in price.

(BTW I didn't get all 23 signals, only 20 of them)

Does it make sense at all?
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  • #138
  • Feb 2, 2007 10:17am Feb 2, 2007 10:17am
Quoting fjfx
Thanks for the "answers" to your exercise.

Allow me to post what I tried to do when you first assigned the exercise earlier. Again, just trying to get inside your head and see if my thought process is in line with yours .

I marked the "reason" for each MACD signal based on your notes.
The only one not in your notes is the "aggressive reversal" cos there's
no price action/ pattern; simply a U-turn in price.

(BTW I didn't get all 23 signals, only 20 of them)

Does it make sense at all?
Very well done. I like your description Aggressive Reversal. I call it High Probability Trade but I like yours more. Will definitely use it in future. Now comes the question. Which of those trades would you have taken and which not and what is the possible pips made or lose on each trade. Have a good look at support and resistance to establish your targets and especially the stoploss amount for every trade and if it is worth it. There I have just given it away. That is how to do it.
Goodluck
  • #139
  • Feb 2, 2007 10:26am Feb 2, 2007 10:26am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Sorry it is the 5 min chart. Dont give notice to the MACD or MA's on that chart. I used the same 4hour chart, just set it to 5 min. I was only interested in the 8EMA. That is what I use to trade news. As long as the 5 min bar price is below the 8EMA I stay in.
Hi Phillip, just curious what you looked for to enter your trade? Depending on whether your buying or selling, do you look for the 5min candle to close above/below the 8EMA or something else?
  • #140
  • Feb 2, 2007 10:45am Feb 2, 2007 10:45am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Hi Phillip, just curious what you looked for to enter your trade? Depending on whether your buying or selling, do you look for the 5min candle to close above/below the 8EMA or something else?
I took it on because of the turnaround and below the 38Fib. Was then below 8EMA. It also depends on the movement and I would say some experience. It is difficult trading news.
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