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  • #3,921
  • Jun 16, 2008 5:15pm Jun 16, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting Shermenator
Yea bud it seems like it might be holding support at a small swing not visible in the 1 hour chart.....

But if i go to the small time frame then i will go crazy lol...
So i have to accept the losses when they come in our timeframe or i will to many swings and that can freeze my traiding...

but it seems like we are having a test of the levels again....hope more volume kick in our direction when the new opens and we get tokyo involved....
I have my mental stop around the high of today or my other stop is if we get a breack of our 61.8. I dont have a stop and reverse button since i do not believe in the breack of the high if we have such a shallow retracement....and i will hold to my rule lol.

Bud would you drop to a smaller timeframe (30 min) just to breack even on the trade if it in fact reverses or are 61.8 breacks....or is that not good.

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]I am shooting for price 9605.....because 9604 is the pivot of the major move and I am not willing to give pips back to the market for going for an extra pip or 2...
No I woudlnt, I could care less about the smaller timeframes.
  • #3,922
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:25pm Jun 16, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting Bobokus
No I woudlnt, I could care less about the smaller timeframes.
Got it bud....i have closed my chart at breack even...
Now my question is do you reverse since our 61.8 did not hold as resistance...

And if you did not reverse would you consider taking the break of the high even if the retracement was not deep enought to our intraday long?

And if i do take the breack of the high i would personally aim for the counter fibb targets price 9714 since the retracement was not deep enough...
let me know what you think bud.

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  • #3,923
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:40pm Jun 16, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting Shermenator
Got it bud....i have closed my chart at breack even...
Now my question is do you reverse since our 61.8 did not hold as resistance...

And if you did not reverse would you consider taking the break of the high even if the retracement was not deep enought to our intraday long?

And if i do take the breack of the high i would personally aim for the counter fibb targets price 9714 since the retracement was not deep enough...
let me know what you think bud.

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Actually the less it retraces from day to day the stronger the potential move is. Taking the break of the high is legitimate you just need to be prepared since it hasnt truely tested support yet, and you stand a higher chance of drawdown even though you may have the direction correct because it then retraces, and in the event it reverses like it has been doing resently your stuck long at the High and it reverses by breaking yesterdays Intraday short =major hit to the balance....yesterdays high may not be the high of this move and it could just be continueing into today, hence the reason sometimes the Intraday fib may include candles from the day before or after. Without it making a 38.2% retracement it isnt a true test of support to me. Word of advise...Use the horizontal line trick after the break to protect your account from getting caught and over exposed on 1 trade. Its better to take the smaller loss and get in at a better price on the next test of support.
  • #3,924
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:06pm Jun 16, 2008 8:06pm
What you mean that price might continue to pull up in a one direction is based on the fact that price is reversing my red fib on my chart and might be going for those targets ?...i have place a support fibb below price and i will continue to pull it up as long as price continues to go up.(orange fibb)
If price does break the high of our intraday fib the orange then would become into the most important fibb since that would be the fibb holding price above the intraday high....and if those supports dont hold after getting a break of high that could mean that now we would have a test of our intraday levels support and price might not hold at the intraday levels since it could be a rejection of the 61.8 fibb from the bigger swing (purple fibb)

Please let me know if this makes sense.

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  • #3,925
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:19pm Jun 16, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting Shermenator
What you mean that price might continue to pull up in a one direction is based on the fact that price is reversing my red fib on my chart and might be going for those targets ?...i have place a support fibb below price and i will continue to pull it up as long as price continues to go up.(orange fibb)
If price does break the high of our intraday fib the orange then would become into the most important fibb since that would be the fibb holding price above the intraday high....and if those supports dont hold after getting a break of high that could mean that now we would have a test of our intraday levels support and price might not hold at the intraday levels since it could be a rejection of the 61.8 fibb from the bigger swing (purple fibb)

Please let me know if this makes sense.

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Your still overcomplicating things by looking at too many things, the inner levels from that red fib your talking about are broken ...remove it, it has served its purpose already.Same with your swing put in on there check where its pointing to and take it back off to clear the chart. Mine is very simple in comparison.Im already riding along for the attempt on the high,if it breaks fine if it doesnt Ill look for a short. Just dont overcomplicate things by too many things on your chart to confuse the situation, its the same as trying to serve 2 masters...pick one. Its usually the simplest one.
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  • #3,926
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:45pm Jun 16, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting Shermenator
What you mean that price might continue to pull up in a one direction is based on the fact that price is reversing my red fib on my chart and might be going for those targets ?...i have place a support fibb below price and i will continue to pull it up as long as price continues to go up.(orange fibb)
If price does break the high of our intraday fib the orange then would become into the most important fibb since that would be the fibb holding price above the intraday high....and if those supports dont hold after getting a break of high that could mean that now we would have a test of our intraday levels support and price might not hold at the intraday levels since it could be a rejection of the 61.8 fibb from the bigger swing (purple fibb)

Please let me know if this makes sense.

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Try this, 1 fib tool and scalp each movement in a demo account, youll start to get the feel of the markets movement and see the bigger moves as price blasts through these small Swing fibs. Regardless of win or loose this is just an exercise in following the market and practicing entry's and staying with a trade to ride it out.
Hopefully this will make sense I drew it up pretty quick
This has nothing to do with winning or loosing only learning and reacting to what is happening in front of your face.
There is a second part in the next post.
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  • #3,927
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:48pm Jun 16, 2008 8:48pm
Second part is if price goes the other direction on a failure at the high or something. You just stay on top of each waveform that unfolds and keep trading the direction the levels tell you the market is going..dont worry about waveforms smaller than 30 pips or so.
These are just what if's and what to do..nothing more.
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  • #3,928
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:54pm Jun 16, 2008 8:54pm
Trade this pure stop and reverse ...your stoploss is the stop and reverse point...In a long trade trail the low of each previous candle a few pips as the stoploss and sell stop at the same point. In a short trail the highs of the previous candles as the stop loss and Buy stop. DO not close trades manually let the market do the entering and exiting as it hits your stop loss, Buy and sell stops


The action can be pretty fast when the market gets momentum so be ready.........................and Good luck.
  • #3,929
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:24pm Jun 16, 2008 10:24pm
Thanks for sharing that Bo, those screenshots you posted helped me understand so much more. Keep up the great work, I read everything in this thread and learn things daily... I wish I could contribute more, maybe one day when I have some time I will.
  • #3,930
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:46pm Jun 16, 2008 11:46pm
Good morning Bo,

this teaching is superb and very informative, I think i will print those chart and save but would be very happy and more impressed if i can trade it successful as u have instructed.



It makes so much sense to us.
  • #3,931
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:12am Jun 17, 2008 1:12am
thanks for the post,u mentioned sth abt horizontal line trick,just want to advice dat if u want 2 use it wait and let the candle close outside the line cos i was caught in d bear trap yesterday and i exited wen i felt it was a lost trade,my observation is dis by d time u feel dis bo strategy u will know wen u re in d rite trade or not,thanks bo,but i will lik to hear more abt the horizontal line trick.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,932
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:29am Jun 17, 2008 1:29am
Bo thanks for that great post above aamzing.
This is my eur/usd chart daily...
I have simplyfied as much as i can....I know i can place a support fibb to the light blue fibb but i will not place it since i dont need it at the time and dont whant to clutter or place to much info in my head...

Daily chart
Attached Image


Now my 1 hour chart...

I placed the swing fibb to see if price holds to go to our targets of today...and seems like we will have obstacles in the way....
I know i could have place a counter fibb to the intraday but in my head i know the targets in my head without having to place it...second if my swing fibb does not hold it would simply mean price changed seentiment and i could short if the swing levels dont hold....
I have tried to remove as many fibbs as i can let me know if this is right or if i still have to many....

Attached Image


Now their is one fibb that bugs me and i feel like i need it but i will eliminate it from my head take a look at it bud....
please let me know if you completly ignore this...if you do then i would do the same...

Attached Image


Thanks bud let me know what you think
  • #3,933
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:12am Jun 17, 2008 2:12am
Theres quite a few news been release this morning and making the trend less defined.........it will be best to step aside and let the dust settle before taking a position.

As they said a No position is also a position and sometimes a better position than trying to guess or chase the market.

Im learning to be more patient and not trade every step-up......understanding that all I need is afew good trades a week to achieve my goal for the week.
  • #3,934
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:28am Jun 17, 2008 2:28am
bo,

pls i want to clarify sth,i read tru ur response to shermentor's post.does it mean dat if price breaks the high we wait for a retracement back to the previous support b4 we buy or buy and be xpecting a retracement?thanks
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,935
  • Jun 17, 2008 3:46am Jun 17, 2008 3:46am
Dear bobokus:
there is big move in London session, but i missed it. i waiting for the bounce at the intrady levels. but it seems a reversal. so how to grasp this kind of market.
now i am waiting for the price to test the fib levels of this down fib. it seems that i always late .
what is your sugesstion.
regards
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I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #3,936
  • Jun 17, 2008 3:49am Jun 17, 2008 3:49am
Hi All,

I just got this from another thread and would say we should all bear this in mind why trading between now and the end of the year.......This is Bank of England Governor Mervyn King given a very bearish outlook for cable.


--BOE King: Good Reason To Believe Above Target CPI Temporary
--BOE King: Path Of Bank Rate To Get CPI To 2% "Uncertain"
--BOE King: Inflation Should Peak Around End Of The Year

LONDON (MNI) - Inflation will accelerate to over 4% in the second
half of 2008, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has said in an open
letter to UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling.

The letter was automatically triggered under the rules granting the
BOE monetary policy independence after inflation rose above 3% in May,
according to data released by National Statistics today.

In the letter, King said the policy path to get CPI back to the 2%
target was uncertain. He said inflation should peak around the end of
the year and then fall back.

"As things stand, inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second
half of this year to above 4%. I must stress, however, that there are
considerable uncertainties in both directions around this, and any such
projection is particularly sensitive to changes in domestic gas and
electricity charges," King said.

But, he continued:

"There are good reasons to expect the period of above-target
inflation we are experiencing now to be temporary," King said.
  • #3,937
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:17am Jun 17, 2008 4:17am
Quoting lordgbengs
bo,

pls i want to clarify sth,i read tru ur response to shermentor's post.does it mean dat if price breaks the high we wait for a retracement back to the previous support b4 we buy or buy and be xpecting a retracement?thanks
Yes if it had broken the high you can enter since that is a legitinate trade you just have to be aware that no retracement had been made yet and need to expect it. The problem with taking the break of the high is it can do exactly what it did today.......
  • #3,938
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:22am Jun 17, 2008 4:22am
Quoting ztdep
Dear bobokus:
there is big move in London session, but i missed it. i waiting for the bounce at the intrady levels. but it seems a reversal. so how to grasp this kind of market.
now i am waiting for the price to test the fib levels of this down fib. it seems that i always late .
what is your sugesstion.
regards
This is the same thing weve been seeing almost all year with Cable. Failure to break yesterdays high is a clue that it was going to retrace, If you entered short, normally you would have been looking to take profits out at the Intraday levels expecting the bounce in this case it never happens and you continue to hold on to the short position. When playing retracements make sure there is room for profits from your entry to the Intraday levels ..today there was.
  • #3,939
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:23am Jun 17, 2008 4:23am
Quoting zerosum
Hi All,

I just got this from another thread and would say we should all bear this in mind why trading between now and the end of the year.......This is Bank of England Governor Mervyn King given a very bearish outlook for cable.


--BOE King: Good Reason To Believe Above Target CPI Temporary
--BOE King: Path Of Bank Rate To Get CPI To 2% "Uncertain"
--BOE King: Inflation Should Peak Around End Of The Year

LONDON (MNI) - Inflation will accelerate to over 4% in the second
half of 2008, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has said in an open
letter to UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling.

The letter was automatically triggered under the rules granting the
BOE monetary policy independence after inflation rose above 3% in May,
according to data released by National Statistics today.

In the letter, King said the policy path to get CPI back to the 2%
target was uncertain. He said inflation should peak around the end of
the year and then fall back.

"As things stand, inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second
half of this year to above 4%. I must stress, however, that there are
considerable uncertainties in both directions around this, and any such
projection is particularly sensitive to changes in domestic gas and
electricity charges," King said.

But, he continued:

"There are good reasons to expect the period of above-target
inflation we are experiencing now to be temporary," King said.
Good post Zero.
  • #3,940
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:30am Jun 17, 2008 4:30am
Im looking for this to stall somewhere around the previous lows of Sunday and Friday.After this move there should be some retracement back to the Intraday levels of today "once we find a bottom or support today" we can move the Intraday to todays move. After it retraces, my plan is to get ready to short it on a failure of those levels.
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