NFP Feb 2

What do you expect?


The January payrolls report should be a good one, supported by a number of special factors. Our bias is for an above-consensus estimate. However, there are so many statistical issues that it might be a complete surprise in both directions. Forecasters have traditionally done a lousy job in forecasting the results. It will also be very difficult to interpret the figures on the release itself. This might also impact market reactions and turnarounds in directions some minutes after the release are a possibility.



by KBC Bank

Last year, currency moved according to Previous vs Current. Whipsaws occur when Current is in between Previous and Estimates; some traders bet according to Estimate vs Current (I call them Estimate Deviation Traders), while the majority where trading Previous vs Current.

Then in October, the big shakedown occur - a whopping 40K upward revision to the previous month. Since then, people were trading according to Revisions. According to some traders, Revisions have an effect of x2 added/subtracted to the Current number.

Consensus is a lower number of 150K compared to the previous number of 168K.

I prefer the following cases to occur so we'll all have a very good NFP trade tommorrow:

1. Actual < 140K, Downward Revision to the Previous = Strong USD Short
1a. Actual < 140K, no revisions = USD Short
2. Actual > 170K, Upward Revision to the Previous = Strong USD Rally
2a. Actual > 170K, no revisions = USD Rally



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On a technical side. Looking at the Daily Charts, you'd notice that there were 3 Reversal Candles this week alone; today could be another reversal candle.

To trade Reversal Candles: Place an order A pip above/below the High/Low prices of the reversal candles, 50 pips TP.

Seldom do you get Reversal Candles - much so on Daily Charts.

As we know all numbers are rigged by the PPT (plunge protection team) to keep the dollar alive. As its friday..expect a very strong market reversal.

As eur and gbp were cut down for the whole week..I would expect the eur and gbp to rally around 150 to 200 PIPS tommarrow...

This article gives an insight.

How does one million sound? Here it is:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/01/news...ion=2007020115


Good luck to all of us!

PM

Wow, exciting stuff!

I know the EURUSD is the primary pair for NFP, but to get the maximum pips from these releases would it be better to trade a pair like GBPUSD instead?

Yes, Cable moves more pips usually by what I've seen.

I dont really understand the article. Are they predicting that job revisions could 800k on todays figure? If so, I might stand aside on this report.

Nah, its prolly just an indication that the NFP rev, if any, will be on the up side. Will be fun to watch.

Thanks. I think I will trade small, if at all on this report. I think there are easier reports to trade, so its better to preserve capital, if a November-type Payroll figure comes out.

Im going to straddle this one 60 pips either side and I'm laughing.

J

Yesterdays, Tommorrow's ,Today

Does anyone know exactly when the revisions are released? How long after the initial NFP increase at 1330 GMT?

My guess above 150..

was a nice revision to last months NFP but it doesnt look like anybody gives a damn this time!

Fizzed out. Lost 6 pips. Oh well !

Untill now my stupid broker didnt active my Pending Order , but its already taken .. 12 minutes now !!!!

I cant delete it or modify it !!!!!

Is it FXCM?

Wow, who's your broker? I had trouble like that with MG. MG is usually #1 on the list of those with complaints and pending investigations.

What the?!! The FOMC, ISM, GDP, NFP all in the space of three days and the market has hardly budged - a 100 pip range throughout. The volumes in the past few days have been huge according to numbers from the CME and IFR. Wonder what the hell is going on. I'm staying short usd and hoping for more volatilty.