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  • #1,201
  • Jun 13, 2008 5:56pm Jun 13, 2008 5:56pm
Well the market has closed and the EU did have a wave break on the weekly chart and is below 5400. At what point would you start shorting this? would you wait for further confirmation of bearish movement..
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  • #1,202
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:16pm Jun 13, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting greywolf238
Well the market has closed and the EU did have a wave break on the weekly chart and is below 5400. At what point would you start shorting this? would you wait for further confirmation of bearish movement..
When the wave breaks like that, it sends me immediately into "sell mode". Now that I'm programmed to sell, I wait for price to go up first and when it starts turning south, that's when I start selling. This is the more conservative approach and in my opinion the safest. The reason for this is because price could rally all the way up and break the current wave.

What I like most about this method is that I have definite buy and sell conditions. More importantly I know when I'm wrong. This eliminates any doubt and at the same time eliminates as much emotion as possible. I've already eliminated emotion through not seeing candles and bars so to have that extra psychological edge helps me to stay focused.
  • #1,203
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:23am Jun 15, 2008 9:23am
Just a few things I want to make a note of before trading this week. On the eurusd we do have a wave collapse and the wave is fairly large in size relative to the ones around it. The reason why I'm pointing this out is because this may be the "Tsunami wave" which starts it all.

I'll also be keeping an eye on what was said at the G8 meeting this weekend. I read a few articles briefly on how the Saudis are willing to act helping to bring down oil prices and since the euro is correlated to oil, it's going to have an effect. I believe one of the other issues they were going to discuss was the weakness of the US Dollar so the euro may get a double whammy this week.
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  • #1,204
  • Jun 15, 2008 1:21pm Jun 15, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting zoopy
Tally for Bernanke stands at 12 of 17.

Even though this started out as a joke, I'm actually finding this quite interesting. Bernanke's tone has definitely changed and we're having a reverse effect. What I might do next is do the opposite. Whenever he speaks do a tally of how the USD strengthens. Who knows? We might even be able to use him as a leading indicator lol.
Happened to be looking at the calendar for this week. Bernanke speaks tomorrow at 10:00am. Lets see if we'll hit 13 of 18.
  • #1,205
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:02pm Jun 15, 2008 8:02pm
Probably won't see too much movement now but will be keeping an eye on the euro in the next 8-12 hours or so. Bias for the euro is down as the waves are still collapsing.
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  • #1,206
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:34pm Jun 15, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting zoopy
Happened to be looking at the calendar for this week. Bernanke speaks tomorrow at 10:00am. Lets see if we'll hit 13 of 18.
Back in 2005, I was a member of an ‘elite’ trading group, whose leader (very popular on FF these days) called on his followers and said that if fiber breaks 1.17, it’s going down to parity…. with a blink of an eye….
Using PA now, I can ROFLOL, but back then ..many of his followers used 20% of their accounts and more on that once in a lifetime trade.... and mr. green spoke a lot those days….
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  • #1,207
  • Jun 15, 2008 10:27pm Jun 15, 2008 10:27pm
Quoting raczekfx
Back in 2005, I was a member of an ‘elite’ trading group, whose leader (very popular on FF these days) called on his followers and said that if fiber breaks 1.17, it’s going down to parity…. with a blink of an eye….
Using PA now, I can ROFLOL, but back then ..many of his followers used 20% of their accounts and more on that once in a lifetime trade.... and mr. green spoke a lot those days….
Goes to show, no matter how good you think you are, the market will always prove you wrong. The other thing that I also find quite interesting and I never really thought about this until late... many traders will agree that no one can predict the future yet they keep saying the market will go to so and so price. Kind of contradictory if you ask me lol.
  • #1,208
  • Edited 7:09am Jun 16, 2008 5:54am | Edited 7:09am
eurusd has just broken the current wave to the upside. If we close above the highlighted line at 8:00am NY then I'm biased to the long side and will only be looking to buy.

Edit: Eurusd has a confirmed break of the current wave. Bias is now up.
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  • #1,209
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:11am Jun 16, 2008 7:11am
Quoting zoopy
Happened to be looking at the calendar for this week. Bernanke speaks tomorrow at 10:00am. Lets see if we'll hit 13 of 18.
Tally for Bernanke stands at 13 of 18.
  • #1,210
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:25am Jun 16, 2008 7:25am
I'm a bit surprised that the wave broke upwards, i thought it would keep going down, since it also broke the round number 5400. It could change again when Bernie speaks..
  • #1,211
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:33am Jun 16, 2008 7:33am
Quoting greywolf238
I'm a bit surprised that the wave broke upwards, i thought it would keep going down, since it also broke the round number 5400. It could change again when Bernie speaks..
lol.

As long as there's waves, I'm happy.
Waves = opportunities
  • #1,212
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:14am Jun 16, 2008 11:14am
Oil had a 4 hour wave break to the upside which would have been a good opportunity to go long. Then... there was a pullback and again back up another good opportunity. I've placed arrows where I would have entered if I was trading oil.
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  • #1,213
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:17am Jun 16, 2008 11:17am
Like oil, gold has broken a wave to the upside as well.

1. Trade the break
2. Wait for pullback
3. Buy as price starts moving up
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  • #1,214
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:34am Jun 16, 2008 11:34am
Zoopy,

Hi. Pullback to where. White line....round number....fib.....prior resistance.....I think you are gonna say round number....am I right?

Yamin
Yamin On Demo until I am sure!!!!
  • #1,215
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:40am Jun 16, 2008 11:40am
Quoting yamin151
Zoopy,

Hi. Pullback to where. White line....round number....fib.....prior resistance.....I think you are gonna say round number....am I right?

Yamin
I mentioned pullback because that's what I look for. I have no idea where it will pullback. Could be round number, could be 50.0%, maybe support or resistance, who knows? I can't tell the future so I let the market tell me instead since it's always right.

If I'm buying the euro, I just wait for it to drop and when it drops and starts turning around I buy. Nothing fancy needed lol
  • #1,216
  • Jun 16, 2008 4:11pm Jun 16, 2008 4:11pm
Just noticed oil has a 4 hour wave collapse and this one is confirmed. Bias for oil has now changed to down.
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  • #1,217
  • Jun 16, 2008 4:42pm Jun 16, 2008 4:42pm
Happened to be looking at the eurusd again but from a distance and the wave that I was currently using as reference may be noise instead (this is the reason why you shouldn't zoom in too close and sometimes it does help to stand a distance from your screen). In any case, if the waves are still collapsing, we'll want to keep an eye on 1.5300 which is the base of the current wave. If that gives way then we know the direction is biased to the downside.

Another approach I may take is to short with a small position using a 50 pip stop. Momentum looks like it's starting to turn around so I'll be watching the speed of the move down. If we take out 1.5450 there's a high probability we'll be hitting 1.5400.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,218
  • Edited 8:32pm Jun 16, 2008 8:16pm | Edited 8:32pm
Keeping an eye on this pair since it's creeping back up again. I've highlighted the area I'm watching closely. Will be watching 1.5500. If we get to 1.5600 and close then we're definitely making waves up so it's just a matter of following them until one of them collapses again.

Edit: See post#1208.
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  • #1,219
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:38pm Jun 16, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting zoopy
Keeping an eye on this pair since it's creeping back up again. I've highlighted the area I'm watching closely. Will be watching 1.5500. If we get to 1.5600 and close then we're definitely making waves up so it's just a matter of following them until one of them collapses again.

Edit: See post#1208.

She's rollin' now!
  • #1,220
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:46pm Jun 16, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting KissFan
She's rollin' now!
Yep

Hopefully we have more momentum behind this move. If we break above 1.5800 and close then the daily wave has broken to the upside.
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