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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,541
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:04am Jun 16, 2008 9:04am
Hey Phillip, thanks for all the info on your system you've shared with us. If I may, how many lots do you purchase per trade and what are their sizes?

Regards,
JahMikes
  • #15,542
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:06am Jun 16, 2008 9:06am
My trades since Oct2007

All the trades during May2008 was done live except for one while I was on leave.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 4Hour MACD deals.pdf   11 KB | 1,199 downloads
  • #15,543
  • Edited 9:29am Jun 16, 2008 9:17am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting JahMikes
Hey Phillip, thanks for all the info on your system you've shared with us. If I may, how many lots do you purchase per trade and what are their sizes?

Regards,
JahMikes
I am still small in the bussiness. Risking less than 2% of my capital. That is the key. The amount of lots is not important but moneymanagement to risk max 2% of your capital. Work out the amount of lots you can enter according to the stoploss needed and 2% capital risk.(Change your leverage to match the desired stoploss and 2% risk) With risking only 2% of your capital you can be wrong 20 times in a row and still have 50% of your capital available.
  • #15,544
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:22am Jun 16, 2008 9:22am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am still small in the bussiness. Risking less than 2% of my capital. That is the key. The amount of lots is not important but moneymanagement to risk max 2% of your capital. Work out the amount of lots you can enter according to the stoploss needed and 2% capital risk. With risking only 2% of your capital you can be wrong 20 times in a row and still have 50% of your capital available.


Thanks.
  • #15,545
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:43am Jun 16, 2008 9:43am
I didn't take the EURUSD due to the 21 EMA, and I should have taken it due to the tail to the bottom (Bernake was scheduled to speak today as well, so I held out for the extra reason here).

I also stayed out of a CT Zero Cross trade on the GBPUSD. The Zero Cross seems to be VERY strong, strong enough to take CT trades in most cases. I need to back test this to see if the Zero Cross with such a strong bar is often good for at least 20 pips or not.
  • #15,546
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:52am Jun 16, 2008 9:52am
[quote=Phillip Nel;2057383]There was a gapup opening, then they retraced the price closing the gap and then turned the price around with that tail closing above that bottom trendline. Although the 21ema was in the way upwards after that tail the whole setup was a strong indication of an upmove coming. Just watch 1.5500 level.

Wow Phillip!
The market can't fool master Phillip.
You know excatly how the market works. It's like you're controlling the market. I was hesitating to the take it, because I was rather waiting for the " W " 1,2,3 move up with tail or nice macd signal or both (close above 21, back to it and away "W"). Instead it made a " V "
It's amazing how you can play so good~http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif with the market.
I'm learning day by day very valuable lessons from you.
Phillip you are Black Belt Grand Master in Forex!!
Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,547
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:08am Jun 16, 2008 10:08am
Remember to do at least 50 backtesting trades.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Backtesting.gif Size: 9 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Backtesting.zip   757 KB | 1,306 downloads
  • #15,548
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:09am Jun 16, 2008 10:09am
Hi guys is anyone trading the EurUsd Tail? theres still no MACD signal, but it found strong resistance in the EMA 365 / Fib 38.2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16jun08eurusd.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #15,549
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:12am Jun 16, 2008 10:12am
Hi Philip,

I am resending a message from another memeber as I too have the same question.. It appears a lttle obvious but would appreciate if you would answer.. Thanks.


Phillip Nel, Looks like a nice strategy you have there. I was reading through your docoment and had just one question for you. On page 18, you mentioned that "you only trade the trades that give signals at 1700, 2100 and 0100(GMT +2)." Could you convert that into U.S. EST? My math says that's at 10am EST, 2pm EST and 6pm EST...is that correct?

Thanks,
Raghu
  • #15,550
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:13am Jun 16, 2008 10:13am
[quote=Song Kim;2057749]
Quoting Phillip Nel
There was a gapup opening, then they retraced the price closing the gap and then turned the price around with that tail closing above that bottom trendline. Although the 21ema was in the way upwards after that tail the whole setup was a strong indication of an upmove coming. Just watch 1.5500 level.

Wow Phillip!
The market can't fool master Phillip.
You know excatly how the market works. It's like you're controlling the market. I was hesitating to the take it, because I was rather waiting for the " W " 1,2,3 move up with tail or nice macd signal or both (close above 21, back to it and away "W"). Instead it made a " V "
It's amazing how you can play so good~http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif with the market.
I'm learning day by day very valuable lessons from you.
Phillip you are Black Belt Grand Master in Forex!!
Thanks but it is to know the places where the market is giving you a chance. With time you will learn when the market is grumpy and then you stay on the sideline watching its mood till it starts to smile again and you will learn those symptoms and know the odds is now in your favour to approach it. It is all about an art and it comes through practicing and watching.
  • #15,551
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:20am Jun 16, 2008 10:20am
Quoting Krishnan
Hi Philip,

I am resending a message from another memeber as I too have the same question.. It appears a lttle obvious but would appreciate if you would answer.. Thanks.


Phillip Nel, Looks like a nice strategy you have there. I was reading through your docoment and had just one question for you. On page 18, you mentioned that "you only trade the trades that give signals at 1700, 2100 and 0100(GMT +2)." Could you convert that into U.S. EST? My math says that's at 10am EST, 2pm EST and 6pm EST...is that correct?

Thanks,
Raghu
At that stage I could not trade during working hours and those hours was after work hours here in South Africa. In the meantime I can trade(limit internet access) during working hours so I normally trade the 08:00 12:00 and 16:00 candle (Gmt+2 remember to allow for DST) and sometimes the 20:00 candle if there is news that late.

I am not sure about the easterntime here. Can someone help please.
  • #15,552
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:25am Jun 16, 2008 10:25am
Quoting Krishnan
Hi Philip,
On page 18, you mentioned that "you only trade the trades that give signals at 1700, 2100 and 0100(GMT +2)." Could you convert that into U.S. EST? My math says that's at 10am EST, 2pm EST and 6pm EST...is that correct?

Thanks,
Raghu
Here is a really handy little download. You can quickly figure out any time you need and the visual is very good. (download the second one, v2.12, it can be set to any time zone.)

http://www.forexmarkethours.com/
  • #15,553
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:37am Jun 16, 2008 10:37am
Quoting tommyd
Here is a really handy little download. You can quickly figure out any time you need and the visual is very good. (download the second one, v2.12, it can be set to any time zone.)

http://www.forexmarkethours.com/
Just what I was looking for. Thanks.
  • #15,554
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:42am Jun 16, 2008 10:42am
Good trade, Phillip. I was also watching market at that time. I found eu and gu formed a long tail. So I anticipate Dollar would become weak. Due to Uj hadn't started yet, so I chose it. Unbelievable it hasn't fallen so much yet
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,555
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:46am Jun 16, 2008 10:46am
Yes, I have always had a hard time with the Time thing, this is about the best thing I have found for figuring it out.

I would like to pass on a big thank you for your hundreds and hundreds of hours you have graciously given in teaching your trading approach.
I am sure there are many people who have benefited a great deal from your efforts.
  • #15,556
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:50am Jun 16, 2008 10:50am
hello folks
i am looking at the gbp and see a shooting start with a 1 hour rt and 2 red macd bars my 12:00 noon candle will be completed in 15 minutes
question should i wait for a next 4 hour candle of is this a solid set up for a short. The pa topped out that the top of l my trend lines
i see support on the 1 hour at the 365 ma
need some input critiques been a lurker for too long thanks
scottyd
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1hourgbp.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #15,557
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:18am Jun 16, 2008 11:18am
Quoting scottyd14
hello folks
i am looking at the gbp and see a shooting start with a 1 hour rt and 2 red macd bars my 12:00 noon candle will be completed in 15 minutes
question should i wait for a next 4 hour candle of is this a solid set up for a short. The pa topped out that the top of l my trend lines
i see support on the 1 hour at the 365 ma
need some input critiques been a lurker for too long thanks
scottyd

It is allways easy afterwards to say NO now that the price has gone up some after the tail. I like the candle with a tail to have a body and in a down candle I want the body to be red. The current tail body is to small. I like the evening star on the 1H graph. There is some retracement on the 4H candle so if you want to take the odds on it is still within trading limits.
I will skip it just because of a lack of a body on the candle with the tail. Just a way I filter the tails as well as the place it occur. In this case it went above the 200 and 89 which is a good indication.
The candle also did not close far enough below the 89 and 200. Say 20pips or so. This could turn out to be support.
  • #15,558
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:26am Jun 16, 2008 11:26am
Phillip thank you so much went 6 month paper /demo trading with solid results went live and let me just say that using 2% has kept me sane .....
my confidence in what i "see" is a lil rattled and appreciate all your teaching as well as this tutorial. I also appreciate all the input from the fellow members
As many have stated you have to let the market tell you not you tell the market... after a horrific 2 weeks i am pulling back and sticking only with the 4 hour and hopefully getting back to basics and using patience and discipline
thanks again phillip for all your dedication and knowledge
  • #15,559
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:21pm Jun 16, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
It is allways easy afterwards to say NO now that the price has gone up some after the tail. I like the candle with a tail to have a body and in a down candle I want the body to be red. The current tail body is to small. I like the evening star on the 1H graph. There is some retracement on the 4H candle so if you want to take the odds on it is still within trading limits.
I will skip it just because of a lack of a body on the candle with the tail. Just a way I filter the tails as well as the place it occur. In this case it went above the 200 and 89 which is a good indication.
The candle also did not close far enough below the 89 and 200. Say 20pips or so. This could turn out to be support.
Hi Philip and everyone, Ive also been following the GBP, and Im getting another nice tail that might close below the 200 & 89, its also a 61.8 fib level, and the price is 20+ pips near throwing a MACD signal. but I believe that the GBP is inside a huge triangle and the top of the price range is still not met. Either way both the tails look apealing to me. What do you think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16jun08gbpusd.jpg Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 16jun08gbpusddaily.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #15,560
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:47pm Jun 16, 2008 1:47pm
I don't trade this pair on 4hrs but I just want to show you an example of Palmer BLANNER RUNNER in action. That is if I really understand it. Pls check and see. It will surely happen on EU and GU (our favourites) over and over agaain so be prepare to add to you position with 1Hr when it happens. It is really amazing the way it works.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
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