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Tiki Trader Trades

  • #941
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:10pm Jun 12, 2008 1:10pm
Ok Zoopy.... you got me into this one... now how you gonna get me out... !!

I still have this short trade open... from the other day when you mentioned it....

But i don't much like how it is shaping up any more... this looks like a triangle or flag going on here... which means a high probability of another breakout to the upside....

I have a stop on this now... above the most recent high...

ZOOPY... I gonna send you the bill !!!
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  • #942
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:21pm Jun 12, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Ok Zoopy.... you got me into this one... now how you gonna get me out... !!

I still have this short trade open... from the other day when you mentioned it....

But i don't much like how it is shaping up any more... this looks like a triangle or flag going on here... which means a high probability of another breakout to the upside....

I have a stop on this now... above the most recent high...

ZOOPY... I gonna send you the bill !!!
haha.

Hey now, I asked you if that was a valid TT5 trade, I didn't say to take it

  • #943
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:05am Jun 13, 2008 1:05am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Ok Zoopy.... you got me into this one... now how you gonna get me out... !!

I still have this short trade open... from the other day when you mentioned it....

But i don't much like how it is shaping up any more... this looks like a triangle or flag going on here... which means a high probability of another breakout to the upside....

I have a stop on this now... above the most recent high...

ZOOPY... I gonna send you the bill !!!
Hi Tiki,
After that CAD trade with 7 time your normal size, I was getting concerned for you. I think you may need a small to moderate sized TT5 loss just so you don't get carried away and then take a really big one.

Like I said earlier, the price and the ema always meet, but sometimes it is the ema that moves towards the price rather than the price moving towards the ema. Thus TT5 may be high probability, but it is 100%.

That said, I think I may have been too cautious with my version of TT5 in not taking trades that conflict with my longer term bias. I am now thinking of taking them but with a reduced target (and maybe a reduced stop as well).
Note that my normal TT5 target is rather more than 50 pips.

Good luck Tiki, (but not too good - for when it changes),
Ian
  • #944
  • Edited 4:08am Jun 13, 2008 3:45am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting Tiki Trader
.... and I have never given up thinking there must a Po' Boy way of trading.... a way to be profitable without breaking my brain....
....

Congratulations Tiki on your new success! You've certainly given me food for thought. Your TT5 system actually employs various elements from a bunch of other systems and methods I've followed past and present and and I really like it! Just simply looking at PBs forming under the 5ema on Cable seems to be a profitable way to trade and even hold on for more than 50 pips!

I like how your method is similar to one of the Vegas methods, (maybe one of the wealthbuilders?) in which you identify and trade extreme/outer PA back to the middle. Just some questions: Are you placing trades at the start of the day or throughout the day? What time does the day start for you? Do you ever go to lower timeframes? Do you apply the same ma levels to each currency pair? I apologise if these questions seem to simple but afterall it's now Friday night and my brain has shut off! (Can someone confirm for me whether a 24ema on 4HR equals a 6ema on Daily?!)
  • #945
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:19am Jun 13, 2008 4:19am
Quoting Trumpcard
Congratulations Tiki on your new success! You've certainly given me food for thought. Your TT5 system actually employs various elements from a bunch of other systems and methods I've followed past and present and and I really like it! Just simply looking at PBs forming under the 5ema on Cable seems to be a profitable way to trade and even hold on for more than 50 pips!

I like how your method is similar to one of the Vegas methods, (maybe one of the wealthbuilders?) in which you identify and trade extreme/outer PA back to the middle. Just some questions: Are you placing trades at the start of the day or throughout the day?
Tiki places TT5 trades at no fixed time, he does not wait for End Of Day.
What time does the day start for you?
He uses OANDA, but start of day is really imaterial for this type of trade.
Do you ever go to lower timeframes?
Not for TT5 that I have seen. Tiki has a jinx on him when it comes to 4Hr charts.
Do you apply the same ma levels to each currency pair?
Yes it is always the daily 5ema and the level offsets are the same , except for G/J where he uses +-175,+- 350, +- 450 instead the normal +-175,+-250,+-300.
Not sure if you're using stops or not but what calculation are you using to determine how many lots to trade, given that 50 pips = around 1% gain to yopur overall balance?
Tiki usually doesn't use stops (but personally I always do).

I apologise if these questions seem to simple but afterall it's now Friday night and my brain has shut off! (Can someone confirm for me whether a 24ema on 4HR equals a 6ema on Daily?!)
No, you would want a 30ema which would be close enough to the daily 5ema (personally, I hate 4Hr charts because of all the different start times, so for TT5 I use a 1hr chart with a 120 ema).
I hope this helps,
Ian
  • #946
  • Jun 13, 2008 10:14am Jun 13, 2008 10:14am
it certainly does!! thanks very much Ian!
  • #947
  • Jun 13, 2008 10:47am Jun 13, 2008 10:47am
Just wanted to comment on the TT5 system mechanics and the idea behind it (Tiki correct me if I'm wrong).

The reason why it works so well on the daily timeframe is because of the low EMA number. With the 5 EMA, price tends to catapult itself away on extreme moves and this is when you get "gaps". Tiki is trading both these "gaps" and taking J16 PA setups towards the 5 EMA. When you trade this way, you only want to go as far as the EMA line itself, you don't want to hold onto the trade and try to go for more.

Tiki's CAD trade was a perfect example and taking only 50 pips was the best decision in my opinion. Even though I'm analyzing based on hindsight now, there is no guarantee that price will continue further and that's why the TT5 TP of 50 pips works so well.

If we were to trade on the 4 hour, I wouldn't increase the EMA number because that starts to move away from the concept behind how it works. You need a low EMA number because it tends to "stick" to price. It's the extreme moves away from the EMA that you trade and having a slower moving EMA won't work. You probably would want to decrease your TP as well since the timeframe is lower.

Hope this helps those in understanding the mechanics of the system
  • #948
  • Jun 13, 2008 11:32am Jun 13, 2008 11:32am
Tiki. Great to see you pulled out of your drawdown. I wish you all the best as you seem like a really nice guy but always remember this
  • #949
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:53pm Jun 13, 2008 12:53pm
Yes you are right... the CAD trade size was a lot bigger... !! But then, I also said from the beginning I would risk more when I felt more comfortable with what I see.... this was a case like that.... I really like Head and shoulders formations when they look so perfect... like CAD did on 4 hour.... yes, i did make it a little too big... I came out ahead... hurray for me !!! I probably will not do that again or very often....

I will certainly lose... remember, I still have anothe CAD SHORT position open from a day before that CAD Pin... and look where cad is now... going the wrong way... and I am about to cut it loose I think... and same goes for my EUR/JPY.... these two trades are no longer TT5 trades... they are just trades that will maybe go my way or not...

I will lose trades.. no doubt about that !!

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Tiki,
After that CAD trade with 7 time your normal size, I was getting concerned for you. I think you may need a small to moderate sized TT5 loss just so you don't get carried away and then take a really big one.

Like I said earlier, the price and the ema always meet, but sometimes it is the ema that moves towards the price rather than the price moving towards the ema. Thus TT5 may be high probability, but it is 100%.

That said, I think I may have been too cautious with my version of TT5 in not taking trades that conflict with my longer term bias. I am now thinking of taking them but with a reduced target (and maybe a reduced stop as well).
Note that my normal TT5 target is rather more than 50 pips.

Good luck Tiki, (but not too good - for when it changes),
Ian
  • #950
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:02pm Jun 13, 2008 1:02pm
I know what i am doing is similar to some other methods... but thoses methods had nothing to do with how I came up with what I am doing now...

Some months ago... I simply was looking at charts trying to find some simple way to trade... and saw price always go back to the 5 ema....

Price also goes back to any ema !!!

NO, I don't put the same ema levels on each pair.... Especially I use different levels for GBP/JPY... canldes there can be so much longer...

I will stick I think to my 50 pips.... yes of coarse I could go for more.... but, that will not be me... the 50 pips is working for me....

I do not have a set time to make trades.... when price is out there at the 3rd level... then its time to make the trade... ! Period... there are other time where I will see what end of day shows on the candle.... it also has a lot to do with when I come home from work.... I will miss trades because I am not at home.... if the trade is there when I look at the chart.. I take it... I am using alpari MT4 most of the time and daily candle changes for me at 5 PM CST.

Quoting Trumpcard
Congratulations Tiki on your new success! You've certainly given me food for thought. Your TT5 system actually employs various elements from a bunch of other systems and methods I've followed past and present and and I really like it! Just simply looking at PBs forming under the 5ema on Cable seems to be a profitable way to trade and even hold on for more than 50 pips!

I like how your method is similar to one of the Vegas methods, (maybe one of the wealthbuilders?) in which you identify and trade extreme/outer PA back to the middle. Just some questions: Are you placing trades at the start of the day or throughout the day? What time does the day start for you? Do you ever go to lower timeframes? Do you apply the same ma levels to each currency pair? I apologise if these questions seem to simple but afterall it's now Friday night and my brain has shut off! (Can someone confirm for me whether a 24ema on 4HR equals a 6ema on Daily?!)
  • #951
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:09pm Jun 13, 2008 1:09pm
I want to explain... to those who now ask so many questions... !! Gosh, I didn't think I was so popular.... !!!

Let's not make rocket science out of anything TT5.... !! hey.... it easy... if price is out at the outer lines.... make the trade.... if it's only to the first line... I will use PA or something....

Another thing... just as Zoopy said... if a daily candle has finished and it has completely gapped away from the 5ema... I say it has a very high possibilty to come back to the 5 ema... almost as if it is a reversal signal... !!

When I first started to think about this system, I thought of it as TT5.. Trade To the 5 ema....as my thought was to trade all the way to the 5 ema and that would be my target... in the end... I call it Trade Towards the 5ema.... I like just getting the 50 pips, I am sticking with my 50 pips per trade for now, the exception may occasionaly be GBP/JPY I will go for 100.... One of the keys will be... to manage the amount traded for those 50 pips... it won't be the same each time....
  • #952
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:27pm Jun 13, 2008 1:27pm
An example of a good TT5 trade would have been today on EUR/USD.... just when price gets down to that second level on the indicator... I would have gone long.... and sure enough 50 pips would have been mine.... but where was Tiki...??? Working regular job !!! Not Home.....

Also my opinion is that TT5 trades are pretty quick trades.... they happen hit target pretty fast.... price does not stay away from the 5ema for long...

And also one must consider that the 5ema moves too.... not just price moving to or from the 5 ema....
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  • #953
  • Jun 13, 2008 2:04pm Jun 13, 2008 2:04pm
Hey Tiki!

Thanks for setting a few things straight. Please watch your MM, but as you are confident even MM is a discretional thing

Have a good weekend!
Ciao!
Matt Gnat
  • #954
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:45pm Jun 13, 2008 4:45pm
Thanks Tiki for all your explanations.
  • #955
  • Jun 15, 2008 3:08pm Jun 15, 2008 3:08pm
OK.... I've had enough on these two trades still open.... I have stops now... either these turn and go back my way... or I am going to cut them loose for a loss....

Someone start huffing and puffing and get these two pairs going the other way...

Even raczek said he was going to start selling on EUR/JPY a week ago... and look where it's gone....

Now I insist.... we go the other way now... !!!

Maybe last hope on USD/CAD for a 123 reversal possibility... !!
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  • #956
  • Jun 15, 2008 5:48pm Jun 15, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK.... I've had enough on these two trades still open.... I have stops now... either these turn and go back my way... or I am going to cut them loose for a loss....

Someone start huffing and puffing and get these two pairs going the other way...

Even raczek said he was going to start selling on EUR/JPY a week ago... and look where it's gone....

Now I insist.... we go the other way now... !!!

Maybe last hope on USD/CAD for a 123 reversal possibility... !!
.... you're funny T.
I really tried, but had to get out quickly with just 20pip profit....
Now I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 167.50 before any pullback...
.
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  • #957
  • Edited 6:41pm Jun 15, 2008 6:24pm | Edited 6:41pm
Completely unacceptable !!! Now, lets all huff and puff at the same time... !!

Quoting raczekfx
.... you're funny T.
I really tried, but had to get out quickly with just 20pip profit....
Now I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 167.50 before any pullback...
.
  • #958
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:10am Jun 16, 2008 7:10am
Quoting raczekfx
.... you're funny T.
I really tried, but had to get out quickly with just 20pip profit....
Now I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 167.50 before any pullback...
.
Self fulfilling prophecy....?
I hope you closed your shorts in time, Tiki...

p.s.
You haven't used 20% on that tt5 trade, have you....

.
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  • #959
  • Jun 16, 2008 3:41pm Jun 16, 2008 3:41pm
NO Master I did not !! And I decided to close out before it hit my stop.... OHHHHHH but poor Tiki did lose this one !!!

Closed my EUR/JPY and lost 3.5% of my account !!!

Quoting raczekfx
Self fulfilling prophecy....?
I hope you closed your shorts in time, Tiki...

p.s.
You haven't used 20% on that tt5 trade, have you....

.
  • #960
  • Jun 16, 2008 3:43pm Jun 16, 2008 3:43pm
OK.. TT5 SHORT GBP/JPY @ 212.43

Target 50 pips.... @ 211.93
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