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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #3,901
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:52am Jun 16, 2008 12:52am
Quoting Bobokus
What I see from Cable is the downtrend still prevailing. Looking at this from the Daily and the short term, the move down from mid March shows resistance from that move is containing rally's so far. We are do another push up but I look to sell into it again when it does and after Friday it looks very likely to happen. Another push up should be able to reach 1.9600 range where we can start to look for a failure and the down trending move to continue. I think personally another attempt on the lows of 1.9360/1.9330 will break after another failure to break long and get past the retracement and downtrend levels.It will be like blood in the water and the sharks are going to jump on it if 1.9360/1.9330 breaks.
Dear bobkus:
how do you now another push up should be able to reach 1.9600 range, that is a pivot fibs. why not the price rejected at the short fibs. what assurance do you have to believ it can break the short fibs.
regards
I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #3,902
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:59am Jun 16, 2008 12:59am
Quoting Shermenator
PLace a swing fibb from the moment priced bounced to new high....if those levels hold as support you are in good shape....stop trying to run after a trade all you had left in the market today really was the breack of the high and i did not take it since it was a low probabilty trade since we had that downward trednline look at my chart...Now I am waiting to see if this levels hold as support then i would take it from there to the intraday high if they hold...if not i would play the reversal...

Attachment
thank you very much for you reply. but i have saw that the trend line has been broken. in pratice, , how to protect your profit.
i have saw my profit changed from a 20 pips into a negative one.
regards
I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #3,903
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:16am Jun 16, 2008 1:16am
Quoting GreatYves
Hello my dear mentor. I am happy to see you are still active in here! I for my self have had a rough period hitting SL after SL trading high risk the NZDUSD and everytime i thought the market was done with me, some high stakes TP have brought me back just to make me realize that as long their was some bread left on the table i could make it grow very fast. I was on a roller coaster, the only goal was to get a million quick!

How fool was i then...

I then stop trading completly for about 6 months. I healed myself, i had become a compulsive gambler playing forex like it was texas hold'em! I realized a lot of stuff since then! Money is not important in my life. I have a good day job that i like, a wife that i love and kids that i want to see grow up. A roof over my head, food on the table and a good computer (and 2 x 22inch monitors hehe) is all i really request from life, the rest is extras!

I got back into trading just for fun i deposit 100$ on Oanda and risk now no more then 2% on GU, using the fibs and AdvanceAMA as pivot. I want to stop jumping from method to method. Fibo trading the GU have been the most logical way of trading i can understand. Tell me the truth, have you been growing your account? (But I shouldn't ask!) And what happened to Skunny boy?

This beeing said, I know it's only sunday but looking at the intraday fibs i bet it's up to at least 1.9538-9611 area.

Highest regards.

Good to see you still kickin, and I see you've realised its not a get rich quick game...now you can start trading.
Ive been doing pretty good, Im almost at the point Ill have a few traders working for me, Im already training them now and its looking good.
Skunny has moved on to greener pastures I guess.
Yep the bounce started Friday and I am expecting the same somewhere in the 9560/9605 range.
Just hang in there, you'll do fine
  • #3,904
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:19am Jun 16, 2008 1:19am
Quoting Shermenator
Attachment

Those are the seperators i get ...i have a daily candle for sunday that already closed....I am using odl metatrader the canldes close at 8 pm eastern time...tell me what you think...
Looks right to me
  • #3,905
  • Edited 1:36am Jun 16, 2008 1:24am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting ztdep
Dear bobokus:
I have some confustion about the intrday fibs. today.
am i right to draw fib like this. or should i draw it from the last friday's high.
regards.
i see the price bounce from the long fib, so i made a long, i did not take profit at the high, i am now in a lose.
regards

Your Intraday is correct, you want too see if the inner levels from it suport price and they have. You should be in profit unless you entered at the high which is basically in the middle of the movement.
  • #3,906
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:29am Jun 16, 2008 1:29am
Good morning everybody,

I missed the long trade, will wait for reversal if 1.9561 holds at 4hr.
wishing you all success this week

thanks
  • #3,907
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:32am Jun 16, 2008 1:32am
Quoting ztdep
Dear bobkus:
how do you now another push up should be able to reach 1.9600 range, that is a pivot fibs. why not the price rejected at the short fibs. what assurance do you have to believ it can break the short fibs.
regards

Its just common for Cable to make 50% retracements, we dont know for sure where it will go only follow it as it does. That is just a techical analysis.
  • #3,908
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:34am Jun 16, 2008 1:34am
Quoting Naijafx
Good morning everybody,

I missed the long trade, will wait for reversal if 1.9561 holds at 4hr.
wishing you all success this week

thanks
Good luck to you as well.
  • #3,909
  • Jun 16, 2008 1:37am Jun 16, 2008 1:37am
I have taken this trade short myself today we have brocken the upward trendline and price has made a double top at the intradays 61.8 fibb...

I have enter this trade aiming for the intraday low since we have major support that comes from the intraday low and and the retracement low from the daily chart...We are also below a major upward trendline in the daily chart...Also price reversed the lastest swing in the 1 hour chart when it formed that double top.
I will be happy with my profits at that point.

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I will closely pay attention to price 5365 as major support...price action will let me know....
  • #3,910
  • Jun 16, 2008 2:12am Jun 16, 2008 2:12am
Just got on board.....missed the early morning activities but now waiting for a set-up to start trading.

Wishing you all a good trading week ahead.....May the profits be more and the odd mistakes be less.
  • #3,911
  • Jun 16, 2008 2:21am Jun 16, 2008 2:21am
Shermenator, Good thinking............ good result
  • #3,912
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:35am Jun 16, 2008 10:35am
Hi Bo,

Please be kind and give me one advice.
This morning I have opened a short EurUsd at the opening of the candle below Intraday Short fib.
But the market turn immediately and I closed at 1.5392.
Where I was wrong?
And also tell me are my fibs ok?

Thanks a lot.
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  • #3,913
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:57am Jun 16, 2008 10:57am
wat i will advise is that no system is 100% so anytin can happen,but wat i suspect is big investors buying euro,neva mind the good news is that this system works most of the time ,so dnt be greedy,hav sound money management and u will make ur money back,makin losses is part of the business.all d best
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,914
  • Jun 16, 2008 11:57am Jun 16, 2008 11:57am
Quoting bogdan1
Hi Bo,

Please be kind and give me one advice.
This morning I have opened a short EurUsd at the opening of the candle below Intraday Short fib.
But the market turn immediately and I closed at 1.5392.
Where I was wrong?
And also tell me are my fibs ok?

Thanks a lot.
Your Intraday is correct, what happend is the market is trying to reverse now. As soon as you see the market or price breaking previous highs or high points of previous waveforms thats a pretty good sign that it can go against you. The the break of the Long fib level is a reversal signal. You didnt do anything wrong you just got caught in a reversal and then bad US data on top of it. A fundamental "monkey in the wrench" was thown at us today.
  • #3,915
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:12pm Jun 16, 2008 12:12pm
If you take a look at todays movemnt price has well overmoved in the bullish direction going well past intraday target 2 ...when this happends i ussually expect a pullback back to the intraday levels or if anything a possibell reversals....what this means is that if i dont get a decent retracement i will not take the breack of the high since its a low probabilty trade.
Also if you place your retracement fibb to todays intradays levels they are holding nicely and their targets match up with the new intraday long.

Also if you look at the 4 hour chart candle formation we have obtained a shooting start rejecting a close above the 61.8 fibbonacci...so today playing the retracement can be a higher probabilty trade then ussual.

Chart 1 hour chart
Attached Image


4 hour chart...this is the shooting start I am talking about

Attached Image


Bo let me know what you think
  • #3,916
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:13pm Jun 16, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting lordgbengs
wat i will advise is that no system is 100% so anytin can happen,but wat i suspect is big investors buying euro,neva mind the good news is that this system works most of the time ,so dnt be greedy,hav sound money management and u will make ur money back,makin losses is part of the business.all d best
Your 100% correct, you cant trade forex and be 100%. Maybe 60-70% once your skills and experience have grown, and why good money management is important. I know it sounds very low but start with 1-2% of your balance to judge your lot size, me personnaly I dont calculate my stop loss point by a set number since the market detirmines your stop loss point, a set number stop loss is nothing but advertising a target to be hit.I dont even enter one unless im in profit or I see the market turning against me and I use previous support or resistance points(candlestick low and high points not fib levels). Using small 1-2% balance trades gives you breathing room and takes some of the nevousness off your shoulders since you have the ability to absorb some drawdown, and in most cases get in at better prices since alot of your trades would have been winners if you had the ability to absorb drawdown instead getting your stop loss hit only to find later you were correct in the trade if you just could have stayed in it longer, granted going against the current trend its not advisable to look for better prices, but trading with the trend most people are not willing or patient enough to stick with it because there is drawdown and if its more than 30-40 pips they are closing their trade manually or their stop loss is getting hit, and the market knows this.
  • #3,917
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:26pm Jun 16, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting Shermenator
If you take a look at todays movemnt price has well overmoved in the bullish direction going well past intraday target 2 ...when this happends i ussually expect a pullback back to the intraday levels or if anything a possibell reversals....what this means is that if i dont get a decent retracement i will not take the breack of the high since its a low probabilty trade.
Also if you place your retracement fibb to todays intradays levels they are holding nicely and their targets match up with the new intraday long.

Also if you look at the 4 hour chart candle formation we have obtained a shooting start rejecting a close above the 61.8 fibbonacci...so today playing the retracement can be a higher probabilty trade then ussual.

Chart 1 hour chart
Attachment

4 hour chart...this is the shooting start I am talking about

Attachment

Bo let me know what you think
Very good , just be wary that even though Cable is showing strength it has not taken the downside pressure off yet support will have to hold after this move up and another big stair step up is required to get the downside pressure off. If there is retracement into todays Intraday and if the support levels from that hold will tell the tale.
  • #3,918
  • Jun 16, 2008 3:00pm Jun 16, 2008 3:00pm
Take a look at my 4 hour chart here...since the last bearish swing got reversed does this mean that if price does come down you expect this levels to hold overall....treat it like an intraday except that we are not locked in a set time of period but more in just looking at the swings...we are also looking at a possibell bullish head and shoulders on 4 hour chart

Attached Image


Now that i know that this swings resistance has given it out i pulled it back to the next tear of resistance...

Attached Image


So if I am right today should be a good day in that are intraday levels hold since we have a larger timeframe reversal plus the indication of a daily trend line pulling up...and its looking like we also have a bearish pennant in the daily chart...

Attached Image


My 1 hour chart

Attached Image


Let me know if this is better
  • #3,919
  • Jun 16, 2008 4:43pm Jun 16, 2008 4:43pm
Quoting Shermenator
Take a look at my 4 hour chart here...since the last bearish swing got reversed does this mean that if price does come down you expect this levels to hold overall....treat it like an intraday except that we are not locked in a set time of period but more in just looking at the swings...we are also looking at a possibell bullish head and shoulders on 4 hour chart

Attachment

Now that i know that this swings resistance has given it out i pulled it back to the next tear of resistance...

Attachment

So if I am right today should be a good day in that are intraday levels hold since we have a larger timeframe reversal plus the indication of a daily trend line pulling up...and its looking like we also have a bearish pennant in the daily chart...

Attachment

My 1 hour chart

Attachment

Let me know if this is better

That looks good for Intraday, this shallow retracement so far isnt a good sign for our short positions though
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  • #3,920
  • Edited 6:38pm Jun 16, 2008 6:23pm | Edited 6:38pm
Quoting Bobokus
That looks good for Intraday, this shallow retracement so far isnt a good sign for our short positions though
Yea bud it seems like it might be holding support at a small swing not visible in the 1 hour chart.....

But if i go to the small time frame then i will go crazy lol...
So i have to accept the losses when they come in our timeframe or i will to many swings and that can freeze my traiding...

but it seems like we are having a test of the levels again....hope more volume kick in our direction when the new opens and we get tokyo involved....
I have my mental stop around the high of today or my other stop is if we get a breack of our 61.8. I dont have a stop and reverse button since i do not believe in the breack of the high if we have such a shallow retracement....and i will hold to my rule lol.

Bud would you drop to a smaller timeframe (30 min) just to breack even on the trade if it in fact reverses or are 61.8 breacks....or is that not good.

Attached Image


]I am shooting for price 9605.....because 9604 is the pivot of the major move and I am not willing to give pips back to the market for going for an extra pip or 2...
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