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  • #641
  • Jun 14, 2008 3:23am Jun 14, 2008 3:23am
Quoting Mary Pippins
The EU is approaching the 1.5285 level, which I reckon is a fairly strong S/R level and has been touched 2 times ever since it broke above it 3 months ago.
I'd expect a decent bounce once this level should be reached,
though there is the danger of a break below as Iron-man pointed out.

I set up a couple of orders with my T/Ps scaling out between 30 and 70 pip and a 28 pip S/L.
Now let's see how this goes.
Btw this is a demo account I am trying this on.

Back on May 8th The Euro broke below the Support @1.5376 but failed to close below. Actually broke into that 1.5285 area that you mention. Friday it did the exact same thing. It broke below and tickled the 1.5310 area and back up to 1.5376 So on a daily chart the line still holds and once again we see an example of "if you play the bounce and it doesn't happen you can still get out at or near breakeven." Where will it go now? I have a hard time believing the bottom will simply fall out though technically it clearly could. So I'm watching right now to see if this area holds or if we are headed to 1.5285. You are right Mary. 1.5285 I said 1.5245 in my post. A misprint. Good thing someone can read their charts!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #642
  • Edited 6:13am Jun 14, 2008 6:03am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting Iron-man
Back on May 8th The Euro broke below the Support @1.5376 but failed to close below. Actually broke into that 1.5285 area that you mention. Friday it did the exact same thing. It broke below and tickled the 1.5310 area and back up to 1.5376 So on a daily chart the line still holds and once again we see an example of "if you play the bounce and it doesn't happen you can still get out at or near breakeven." Where will it go now? I have a hard time believing the bottom will simply fall out though technically it clearly could. So I'm watching right now to see if this area holds or if we are headed to 1.5285. You are right Mary. 1.5285 I said 1.5245 in my post. A misprint. Good thing someone can read their charts!

"To play a bounce and then it doesn't happen" seems to be the story of my FX-life at present since price never quite reached the 1.5285 level but stalled and reversed some 14 pips above my buying order and did then exactly what I hoped it would do, but only without my long positions on board.
Had something very similar with the EJ as well, only that I missed that one by 9 pips.
I find it still pretty hard to make accurate forecasts on levels, the day before I got out with 20 pips on a trade, which is good, but that trade had a potential of over 70 pips, so I got out a bit early and wondered if there was something I could have paid attention to and harvested a few pips more.

I agree with you that on the EU the 1.5285 level could still provide a decent bounce and will keep this order open, but not so sure about the EJ order at 165.55. In any event I will have to look at the way price is coming down when it does and decide then whether I'll keep that order open or close it.

Btw and for everybodies information, Since I am still relatively new to FX with some 1.5 years and only really started to learn BRV's method a few weeks ago I am still demoing this because of exactly the way my trading goes as described above.
There's no point putting real money at stake if I can't at least make a few pips with paper money and then, and only then, begin to go up a notch with micro lots etc.
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Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #643
  • Jun 14, 2008 4:57pm Jun 14, 2008 4:57pm
Hi Brv

Can i ask you how far do you put stops from s/r lines and how many trades you open weekly?
  • #644
  • Jun 15, 2008 5:33am Jun 15, 2008 5:33am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi Brv

Can i ask you how far do you put stops from s/r lines and how many trades you open weekly?
Hi Greenhaze,

BRV has another thread where he explains his method in detail: http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=87869

Good thing you asked that question because I am going to re-read that one again for myself.

Can't remember if he explains where to place the S/Ls extensively there but I think he said something like below i.e. a S/R zone, if price should reach there expect a continuation in that direction.

This question has been asked a couple of times now in this thread here. If you browse through it I'm sure you'll find your answer. Actually I'm gonna do this one as well for myself.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #645
  • Jun 15, 2008 6:22am Jun 15, 2008 6:22am
not sure if these have been mentioned as havent looked back at thread but two trades i am looking at buy e/j at 164.25 and g/j at 208 any thoughts people
Fear's for the other guy
  • #646
  • Jun 15, 2008 11:15am Jun 15, 2008 11:15am
Quoting mrhurley1
not sure if these have been mentioned as havent looked back at thread but two trades i am looking at buy e/j at 164.25 and g/j at 208 any thoughts people
both of those are good support levels but currently price is 200+ pips above those levels. are you looking to sell at resistance and then buy a bounce at those levels?
g/j still looks strong on 4hr with minor resistance at 211.75/212.00
e/j looks even stronger with minor resistance at 166.95/170.00
  • #647
  • Jun 15, 2008 1:58pm Jun 15, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting c-note
both of those are good support levels but currently price is 200+ pips above those levels. are you looking to sell at resistance and then buy a bounce at those levels?
g/j still looks strong on 4hr with minor resistance at 211.75/212.00
e/j looks even stronger with minor resistance at 166.95/170.00

yea they are trades i am considering IF price gets to those levels...but as you say both pairs look strong....g/y could even be headin for 213 area
Fear's for the other guy
  • #648
  • Jun 16, 2008 4:25am Jun 16, 2008 4:25am
I'm going to short the GJ at 213.30 as I consider this to be a major S/R level.

But the thing with the GJ is it's volatility, so I allowed a 70 pip S/L and first target in the 210.80 area and second target 209.00 area, could go even further down in the next days.
Not for nothing this pair is called the beast, it might have ideas of its own and not play along after all.

The only reason I'm going for this one is 1. high probablity of a retrace because a major S/R is hit and 2. anticipate enough price movement downward to warrant the risk.
This sort of constellation doesn't come along that often with the GJ, may be only a few times a month.
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Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #649
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:07am Jun 16, 2008 7:07am
Quoting Mary Pippins
I'm going to short the GJ at 213.30 as I consider this to be a major S/R level.

But the thing with the GJ is it's volatility, so I allowed a 70 pip S/L and first target in the 210.80 area and second target 209.00 area, could go even further down in the next days.
Not for nothing this pair is called the beast, it might have ideas of its own and not play along after all.

The only reason I'm going for this one is 1. high probablity of a retrace because a major S/R is hit and 2. anticipate enough price movement downward to warrant the risk.
This sort of constellation doesn't come along that often with the GJ, may be only a few times a month.

yea im thinking very similar..want to start shorting around then..but i am being careful because it could break that if there is enough buying then it will be going alot further..but a retrace does seem more appropriate 4 now...hopefully down to 208..then its a buy
Fear's for the other guy
  • #650
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:34am Jun 16, 2008 8:34am
Quoting mrhurley1
yea im thinking very similar..want to start shorting around then..but i am being careful because it could break that if there is enough buying then it will be going alot further..but a retrace does seem more appropriate 4 now...hopefully down to 208..then its a buy

I have revised my selling entry upwards to 213.85 (moved S/L to 214.50 and left TPs in placeand used the tops about 12 weeks ago (red arrows) as entry level rather than the low from the 4th of January (white arrow), which I used before as entry level determinant.

Did this because the pair can be seen ranging now on the 30m chart, it looks as if tension is penning up for a bit more of a push upwards. But I'd still anticipate a retrace thereafter.

I agree, 208 is definitely a buying area and I might move my T/P on the last position that way but will play this by ear.
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Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #651
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:39pm Jun 16, 2008 7:39pm
There are some interesting areas setting up on a couple of the currencies. The USDJPY is at a pivotal point. While there is sentiment that the USD will rally in the medium term there is the near chance of a pullback first. EURUSD continues to range, as does the GBPUSD. The USD JPY has shown selling interest in the areas of 108.00, 108.35, and 108.50. The next area up where selling interest could occur is 108.87. Short term sells should be good for 20-40 pips and there is a chance if USDJPY can get below 107.90- 74 that it will go lower. I am looking for a bounce that will take us up to the 108.87 area for a sell. Of course you could always take a buy on dips and target that area being careful to not let a winner go negative on you. The GBPUSD will be a good sell if it can get back up to 1.9730, especially if it spikes up there from news. Then it will most likely snap back for a good sell. The Euro is a sell for me if it can get up to 1.5545-40 with a target of previous lows. The Euro Yen is the only other currency that I like but with caution. Unless some dollar positive news changes things I expect the EJ to be at a top for now and would look to sell any rallies that correspond with previous highs.

My apologies for not posting the pound trade that bounced nicely from the area of 1.9428.

Last week the CAD gave up about 80 pips, and the USDJPY has paid off a couple times for fairly quick pips. The Euro and Swiss paid buyers well but only if they were patient. Of course there was the thin market Friday fakeout to shake traders off their positions. (That’s why I don’t like Friday trades.)

Happy trading to all!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #652
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:49pm Jun 16, 2008 7:49pm
Seems like alot of S/R levels broken today creating some tough charts to analyze.
History is written by the victors.
  • #653
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:53pm Jun 17, 2008 2:53pm
Aussie is looking like a sell in the area of .9438
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #654
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:19pm Jun 17, 2008 4:19pm
where the pips and the stophunters play!

I like the USDCHF for a buy when it gets down to 1.0310 area and I like it for a sell at the 1.0468 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swiss061708.gif Size: 13 KB
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #655
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:23pm Jun 17, 2008 4:23pm
ironman,tanx for your post are u looking at audusd,or u are actually going short,if so wat are ur parameters ie,entry points,sl,tp,tanx a lot
  • #656
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:45pm Jun 17, 2008 4:45pm
Thanks for keeping this bad boy alive Iron Man. I've been a bit perplexed this week on my reads.
  • #657
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:11pm Jun 17, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting pastork
ironman,tanx for your post are u looking at audusd,or u are actually going short,if so wat are ur parameters ie,entry points,sl,tp,tanx a lot
It hasn't went anywhere so far. The next level up is .9470 so I wouldn't hold onto a sell above there too far. If it rises to .9470 and stalls there I may add on to my position if I'm not in too many trades at that point.
I am looking for the AUDUSD to head down to the .9320 area.


I am also still in the USDCAD trade from friday close but right now there is no new spot to get in. I am looking for it too go down possibly to the 1.0088 area.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #658
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:10am Jun 18, 2008 4:10am
Hi All, great thread, learning lots. I do have a really basic question which I think I know the answer to but would really like some opinions form the more experienced traders. I cannot monitor the markets all day so have been using daily and 4h charts to date. I presume I should therefore be looking only at S&R levels on these time frames. I guess the higher the TF the stronger the S&R level (???) but will be hit less often. Apologies if this seems basic for this thread but thanks for any comments.
  • #659
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:18am Jun 18, 2008 4:18am
Quoting lesterthecat
Hi All, great thread, learning lots. I do have a really basic question which I think I know the answer to but would really like some opinions form the more experienced traders. I cannot monitor the markets all day so have been using daily and 4h charts to date. I presume I should therefore be looking only at S&R levels on these time frames. I guess the higher the TF the stronger the S&R level (???) but will be hit less often. Apologies if this seems basic for this thread but thanks for any comments.
Yeah, that's right. Higher TF = less often hit but higher probability
of reversal i.e bounce (for support level) or retracement (for resistance level)

May be you know this site but babypips.com is very good and for free, learned there myself and is widely recommended for solid basics
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #660
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:57am Jun 18, 2008 4:57am
buy on aud/nzd at 1.2300 if we get there
Fear's for the other guy
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