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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,121
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:46am Jun 13, 2008 6:46am
Well what a counter-trend week if anyone took it!

At the beginning of Jan 2005, EURUSD had dropped 560 pips in 1 week. That was one of the pair's biggest weekly drops ever.

This week’s bear move is currently just 20 pips short of that fall recorded over 3 years ago.

  1. 50% fib drawn from a swing low of 1.4364 to the all time high is around 1.52.
  2. 61.8% fib is around 1.50. Talk about round figures!

Interesting times.

Rob

  • #4,122
  • Edited 1:55pm Jun 13, 2008 1:48pm | Edited 1:55pm
This is fast becoming another EUR/USD thread instead of a Jacko's House. When posting please ask yourself if it REALLY needs to be in this thread. What does it contirbute to the JAcko CORp, cadets and senior officers alike?

Wonder if Jacko Visits anymore.

Hey, Tradethepips, RAZLDAZL- what other retracement levels are there after 100%? This is where we leave our AH in place and watch right?

If.5200 does not hold, what will it take to confirm a trend reversal?
a TOP-LEFT to BOTTOM-RIGHT screen pattern? Any strategy to catch it on time?
  • #4,123
  • Jun 13, 2008 2:51pm Jun 13, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting Dedax
This is fast becoming another EUR/USD thread instead of a Jacko's House. When posting please ask yourself if it REALLY needs to be in this thread. What does it contirbute to the JAcko CORp, cadets and senior officers alike?

Wonder if Jacko Visits anymore.

Hey, Tradethepips, RAZLDAZL- what other retracement levels are there after 100%? This is where we leave our AH in place and watch right?

If.5200 does not hold, what will it take to confirm a trend reversal?
a TOP-LEFT to BOTTOM-RIGHT screen pattern? Any strategy to catch it on time?
Best to hold off until things are clearer...we are in no mans land right now. Breaking the low of the 5th of June puts things in a different perspective for me...I wouldnt personally think of buying again until I get some strong reversal signal on daily or higher timeframe. Not sure what others use, but I use PA. As priceaction just pointed out in his post above, if this week closes around where it is now its a hugely bearish bar. At 1.5200 we have the 50 fib of the move from 1.4400 ish to the high, as well as a weekly trendline, but judging by this weeks bar we are nowhere near the end of the current drop. Who knows though, eur has done some surprising things lately...I think Jacko is going to be glad he missed all of this when he gets back from his holiday.. have a great weekend all, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,124
  • Jun 15, 2008 12:47am Jun 15, 2008 12:47am
Seems like 1.5300 is a good buy ..... bearish sentiment is out of steam ... and 5300 is major support .....
  • #4,125
  • Jun 15, 2008 1:57am Jun 15, 2008 1:57am
Quoting luqmanz
Seems like 1.5300 is a good buy ..... bearish sentiment is out of steam ... and 5300 is major support .....

I'm not convinced the bearish move is out of steam yet. Why do you think so?
Who knows, but i wouldn't be surprised for price to break below 1.5200. 1.500 could be possible?
I don't really understand the fundamentals, (who does?) or at least whatever I think might be the logical outcome of what I'm hearing rarely happens, so I'm not sure what effect all that will have.
If i had a gun to my head i would be more inclined to go short..
I keep hearing news saying they want the euro to be lower against the dollar.
I think the price could go down to hit that second lower trendline on my chart. It could even go as far as the bottom trendline which is the long term bottom of the old weekly chanel / upmove from 2005.

Best not to second guess though and the real sentiments will show in the price action.

I guess it depends which timeframe you look but I've found that the 4h suits me.

The last few 4h bars were showing higher lows, but wedging and no higher highs so far.

Basically, it seems to me to be a good idea to let it go until I see something on the 4hr saying up. It would be great if that happened after a turn around on the 50 fib that I have drawn at 5231.

I'm not saying that you are wrong on the long from 1.53, in fact it would suit me very much for you to be right. I don't think i would put a buy order at that level until i had seen it go down further and show the signs of coming up again.


John

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  • #4,126
  • Jun 15, 2008 2:31am Jun 15, 2008 2:31am
Quoting mjolimer
I'm not convinced the bearish move is out of steam yet. Why do you think so?
Who knows, but i wouldn't be surprised for price to break below 1.5200.

Hmm .. its just the length of the drops are getting shorter in 1H charts as the price approach the support 1.5300 ...

I could be wrong if I buy at support at 1.5300 .. but I know I wont be broke when I'm wrong .. I got stop loss, I will buy at lower price later and AH will kick in after that ...
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  • #4,127
  • Jun 15, 2008 3:45pm Jun 15, 2008 3:45pm
hi to all,
does any one introduce Mr jacko''s broker,
or any other broker for large lots trading (more than 100 Lots per trade),
and (1000 Lots or more) ?
thx,
  • #4,128
  • Jun 15, 2008 5:43pm Jun 15, 2008 5:43pm
Jacko has kindly posted his system for trading EUR/USD and is now teaching it to the Jacko Turtles. The system itself is reasonably clear, however, I would be interested in seeing its actual performance or backtested results:
1) Average annual number of trades
2) Win / Loss ratio
3) Average number of winning points
4) Average number of losing points
5) Best points win
6) Worst points loss

This is not because I doubt that the system is profitable to those who can employ it but because I want to understand the system's performance characteristics from those using it.
  • #4,129
  • Jun 15, 2008 6:44pm Jun 15, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting luqmanz
Hmm .. its just the length of the drops are getting shorter in 1H charts as the price approach the support 1.5300 ...

I could be wrong if I buy at support at 1.5300 .. but I know I wont be broke when I'm wrong .. I got stop loss, I will buy at lower price later and AH will kick in after that ...
Great observation, what you are seeing is divergence in price action, the indicator folks see this in their indicators, shown in the 2nd pic, funny enough the rsi dosent pick it up, and is due to the math.

When the angle or price's ascent/decline starts to flatten, the move in length begins to shorten or combination of both you are seeing divergence the indicator tools to see this are not needed.

But don't rely on this alone for trading, it needs to be matched up with other tools, price patterns, ect...

Sorry to to be off topic with the thread.

fwiw,

a
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  • #4,130
  • Jun 15, 2008 10:35pm Jun 15, 2008 10:35pm
Quoting Dedax
This is fast becoming another EUR/USD thread instead of a Jacko's House. When posting please ask yourself if it REALLY needs to be in this thread. What does it contirbute to the JAcko CORp, cadets and senior officers alike?

Wonder if Jacko Visits anymore.

Hey, Tradethepips, RAZLDAZL- what other retracement levels are there after 100%? This is where we leave our AH in place and watch right?

If.5200 does not hold, what will it take to confirm a trend reversal?
a TOP-LEFT to BOTTOM-RIGHT screen pattern? Any strategy to catch it on time?

Hi Dedax,

Well man, it depends a lot on the TF you are using, I use 4H and when a retracement pulls back more than 50% level or beyond, I tend to go to a longer TF to see if it is a major retracement and many times have found it is and put my orders based on those longer TF retracements, I try to put my orders from the underneath, but don't forget that this strategy also cares about TL and S&R levels. Sometimes the entry is determined by a TL and others by a support area and sometimes by any of them

If price falls back further than last low 1.5284 made on May 8's bar after a lower high than 5843 on june 9.......well, I would be considering seriously a change on the major trend, price would be doing lower lows and lower highs wich is a downtrend pattern, but as our chief commander says I COULD BE WWWRONG

I would like to know what does Jacko think about this as well.

Hope this help


TRADETHEPIPS
  • #4,131
  • Jun 16, 2008 2:53am Jun 16, 2008 2:53am
Quoting Tradethepips
Hi Dedax,

Well man, it depends a lot on the TF you are using, I use 4H and when a retracement pulls back more than 50% level or beyond, I tend to go to a longer TF to see if it is a major retracement and many times have found it is and put my orders based on those longer TF retracements, I try to put my orders from the underneath, but don't forget that this strategy also cares about TL and S&R levels. Sometimes the entry is determined by a TL and others by a support area and sometimes by any of them

If price falls back further than last low 1.5284 made on May 8's bar after a lower high than 5843 on june 9.......well, I would be considering seriously a change on the major trend, price would be doing lower lows and lower highs wich is a downtrend pattern, but as our chief commander says I COULD BE WWWRONG

I would like to know what does Jacko think about this as well.

Hope this help


TRADETHEPIPS
If I remember correctly ... when Fiber changed from bearish to bullish (early 2006) ... jacko said he was still "rabid short" during the first 2-3 months of the bullish phase that just begun ....

Need to get jacko to confirm this ...
  • #4,132
  • Jun 16, 2008 2:55am Jun 16, 2008 2:55am
Quoting auxesis
Great observation, what you are seeing is divergence in price action, the indicator folks see this in their indicators, shown in the 2nd pic, funny enough the rsi dosent pick it up, and is due to the math.

When the angle or price's ascent/decline starts to flatten, the move in length begins to shorten or combination of both you are seeing divergence the indicator tools to see this are not needed.

But don't rely on this alone for trading, it needs to be matched up with other tools, price patterns, ect...

Sorry to to be off topic with the thread.

fwiw,

a
Good points. Watching the price action is a lot of fun ...
  • #4,133
  • Jun 16, 2008 6:47am Jun 16, 2008 6:47am
Quoting Tradethepips
Hi Dedax,

Well man, it depends a lot on the TF you are using, I use 4H and when a retracement pulls back more than 50% level or beyond, I tend to go to a longer TF to see if it is a major retracement and many times have found it is and put my orders based on those longer TF retracements, I try to put my orders from the underneath, but don't forget that this strategy also cares about TL and S&R levels. Sometimes the entry is determined by a TL and others by a support area and sometimes by any of them

If price falls back further than last low 1.5284 made on May 8's bar after a lower high than 5843 on june 9.......well, I would be considering seriously a change on the major trend, price would be doing lower lows and lower highs wich is a downtrend pattern, but as our chief commander says I COULD BE WWWRONG

I would like to know what does Jacko think about this as well.

Hope this help


TRADETHEPIPS
Cant think of a better Jacko-based method.Tis certainly a good strategy.would still like to know if there are any other ideas out there. As for now based on recent PA,my reversal alert is back to yellow.I think we should be back to Pips++ by the end of the day if no sudden pestilence wastes the eur.waiting for my AH to be picked up.

The law is yet again confirmed
Trend + Strategy = Pips++
Strategy - Trend = -ve account balance

Thanks man.
  • #4,134
  • Jun 16, 2008 7:13pm Jun 16, 2008 7:13pm
Jacko does not provide a signal service, he teaches a his method and shows you his trades as an example. You learn to make your own trade decisions using your own discretion. You should of picked this up reading the thread.

Performnce Characteristic: It is very profitable!

Quoting rnl16616
Jacko has kindly posted his system for trading EUR/USD and is now teaching it to the Jacko Turtles. The system itself is reasonably clear, however, I would be interested in seeing its actual performance or backtested results:
1) Average annual number of trades
2) Win / Loss ratio
3) Average number of winning points
4) Average number of losing points
5) Best points win
6) Worst points loss

This is not because I doubt that the system is profitable to those who can employ it but because I want to understand the system's performance characteristics from those using it.
  • #4,135
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:55am Jun 17, 2008 1:55am
Seems like the Fiber is heading north ....

It passes 1.5500 now ....
  • #4,136
  • Jun 17, 2008 3:15am Jun 17, 2008 3:15am
Quoting generalz
Jacko does not provide a signal service, he teaches a his method and shows you his trades as an example. You learn to make your own trade decisions using your own discretion. You should of picked this up reading the thread.

Performnce Characteristic: It is very profitable!
If you read my post I was not asking for a signal service and I think I understand the system. I believe that it is profitable but the question was about the actual historical performance characteristics. Thanks for taking the effort to reply but this does not answer the question and so is not really helpful.
  • #4,137
  • Jun 17, 2008 10:54am Jun 17, 2008 10:54am
Quoting rnl16616
If you read my post I was not asking for a signal service and I think I understand the system. I believe that it is profitable but the question was about the actual historical performance characteristics. Thanks for taking the effort to reply but this does not answer the question and so is not really helpful.
As there is a huge amount of discretion involved in this method (not system), actual historical performance will vary greatly from user to user.
Some will be cautious and others will have a more aggressive approach.

Jacko himself feels he missed a good opportunity to buy at 1.5350 yesterday, but there will be some in his group who will have spotted the trade.
Conversely some of his trades will not have been taken by the more cautious members of the group

So its not really possible to answer your question.

All I can say is most users will have great success if they follow this method closely, and try to train themselves (with Jacko's help) to think clearly, logically and calmly.

HTH
  • #4,138
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:14pm Jun 17, 2008 2:14pm
Quoting Saint Stevo
As there is a huge amount of discretion involved in this method (not system), actual historical performance will vary greatly from user to user.
Some will be cautious and others will have a more aggressive approach.

Jacko himself feels he missed a good opportunity to buy at 1.5350 yesterday, but there will be some in his group who will have spotted the trade.
Conversely some of his trades will not have been taken by the more cautious members of the group

So its not really possible to answer your question.

All I can say is most users will have great success if they follow this method closely, and try to train themselves (with Jacko's help) to think clearly, logically and calmly.

HTH
Hi Stevo,

I totally agree, you couldn't said it better, this method depends much more on everyone's discretion than the method it self, if I've got the discipline to stick to it and the consistency to execute it, it will be profitable for me.


Good trades to all

TRADETHEPIPS
  • #4,139
  • Jun 18, 2008 2:34am Jun 18, 2008 2:34am
Hi all,

it's funny how this thread has a direct correlation with the E/U market, when it is volatile we write a lot here, and when it is quiet as it is now....look! No posts.

There are more correlated things in the world than we can imagine.

Good trades to all.

TRADETHEPIPS
  • #4,140
  • Jun 18, 2008 2:51am Jun 18, 2008 2:51am
hi guys, take a look at the EUR/JPY uptrend since 2000. just cleared through some big resistance, not much left in the way... food for thought!
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