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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #93,641
  • Jun 14, 2008 8:57am Jun 14, 2008 8:57am
Quoting ovaforty
aud/usd is possibly another good set up forming. Good positive swap and a long term uptrend. Be patient and wait to see the correction run out of steam at some point. If the uptrend resumes you can build positions in this pair also.
Are you expecting more downside, my long scout got taken out by the 2nd leg down. It might go as far as the next fib level, too lazy to post chart its the weekend, but there has been no clear signal for uptrend to resume, and its broken the long term up trend channels, which is a first.
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #93,642
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:09am Jun 14, 2008 9:09am
Quoting lilmoe
i'll stay here bro i want to learn more and share what i learn
  • #93,643
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:45am Jun 14, 2008 9:45am
Quoting toyboy tramp
Are you expecting more downside, my long scout got taken out by the 2nd leg down. It might go as far as the next fib level, too lazy to post chart its the weekend, but there has been no clear signal for uptrend to resume, and its broken the long term up trend channels, which is a first.
weekly chart shows some downside is still possible. It does not matter what my opinion is, I try to interpret the chart. I know the aussie economy is experiencing some problems. It is a commodity currency and will track what oil, gold, and other commodities do. But the upside is stronger than the downside. A commodity bubble will affect aud.

The daily chart shows aud/usd respecting the aqua colored 100 sma, but it also shows 2 breaches to the downside. Trying to pick a bottom is risky. Let the pair resolve consolidation and correction then ride it if the uptrend resumes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd daily.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #93,644
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:54am Jun 14, 2008 9:54am
there is a swing low at .9281 for what that is worth for aud/usd.
  • #93,645
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:02am Jun 14, 2008 10:02am
notes on chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_weekly.gif Size: 30 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_daily.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #93,646
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:12am Jun 14, 2008 10:12am
Here is the daily geppy chart again. I have a white colored fib from 251 to the low at 192. I have drawn a yellow fib from 241 to the same low.

Looking at the previous 6 candles, we see a flag formation which is bullish.
Zigzag indicator shows 3 waves up from 192. We see price sitting at the yellow 38 fib from 241 to 192, but with breaches of this 38 fib. The last daily candle is bullish. All 4 moms are above 100. The brown 55 sma has crossed above the aqua 100 sma. the green 22 sma is above the brown 55 sma. The 5 sma channel is pointing up strongly and has crossed the larger sma's. Price closed above the daily sma high. The 5 sma high/low has crossed up.

This chart is screaming more upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy daily.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #93,647
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:18am Jun 14, 2008 10:18am
Quoting lilmoe
notes on chart.

Attachment

Attachment
nice analysis lilmoe. A strong trend will show overbought conditions. Divergence takes a long time to play out.
  • #93,648
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:41am Jun 14, 2008 10:41am
Risk aversion would cancel my upward bias for Geppy, until risk tolerance returns.
  • #93,649
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:48am Jun 14, 2008 10:48am
also keep an eye on volume. when the volume spikes up it increases volatility. Volatility leads to good gains or bad losses depending on which side of the fence your position is.
  • #93,650
  • Jun 14, 2008 11:23am Jun 14, 2008 11:23am
Hello all,

Please take a look.

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719
  • #93,651
  • Jun 14, 2008 11:51am Jun 14, 2008 11:51am
Quoting Rustyyy
Hello all,

Please take a look.

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719
nice analysis. Have you also done a study on the chinese and asian markets to see a correlation between any currency pairs? I would be interested to know. The correction in gbp/usd, aud/usd, and eur/usd seem to be correlated to the bursting of the bubble of those bull markets and subsequent correction in the Shangai and hang seng markets. It seems like long positions in these pairs were closed so the profits would cover the equity losses.
  • #93,652
  • Jun 14, 2008 12:52pm Jun 14, 2008 12:52pm
What was the close price??
my broker 210.70
  • #93,653
  • Jun 14, 2008 12:58pm Jun 14, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Hello all,

Please take a look.

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719
Good explaination rustyy..tq
  • #93,654
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:05pm Jun 14, 2008 1:05pm
I am bullish bias on the GJ due to COTs.
a lot also depends on the risk aversion ( or lack of next week)

perhaps we can wait for the G8 and news if any on SUnday will give most a heads up what may be for the week.

currently I am just waiting for the daily to close above 211. I believe there will be room for 200-300pips up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #93,655
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:08pm Jun 14, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting ovaforty
nice analysis lilmoe. A strong trend will show overbought conditions. Divergence takes a long time to play out.

yes i agree, they do sometimes take a rather long time. but it's a bit difficult to determine when they actually mature. the overbought conditions here are the same of back before the fall started, and if u notice price spent months under these overbought conditions but the uptrend was never altered.

i'm not sure if it's possible to have the same long and slow uptrend (carry) just yet. i still believe there will be a fall to the 18x.xx levels, maybe not very soon, but soon. there where lots of times where charts were screaming UP, only to slap everyone in the ass and fall 1k pips.

i'm going to be ready for either case. and i think, just like u said, that 213 should be a key area for further up. but i disagree that 209 is the key area for the fall, i would think it would be 207.78-80; this area was where the price failed to close above 3 times in a row back in april, and as soon as it closed above the pair was exhausted and fell to find huge support at the 204 area which was a lower TL. that TL is now around 205.5, and even if reached, wouldn't alter the uptrend either. we need those key areas breached before the confirmation of the fall.

anything's possible though, this sucker has been confusing lots of traders lately, i'm one of them.
  • #93,656
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:11pm Jun 14, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Hello all,

Please take a look.

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719

explains alot, makes stuff pretty clear

lets see what will happen when they meet. sweet chart.
  • #93,657
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:16pm Jun 14, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting ovaforty
Risk aversion would cancel my upward bias for Geppy, until risk tolerance returns.

what would think if have another gap this sunday? that be the third time in a row. does that have anything to do with risk aversion?
  • #93,658
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:26pm Jun 14, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting egkid
What was the close price??
my broker 210.70
??
  • #93,659
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:30pm Jun 14, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting lilmoe
yes i agree, they do sometimes take a rather long time. but it's a bit difficult to determine when they actually mature. the overbought conditions here are the same of back before the fall started, and if u notice price spent months under these overbought conditions but the uptrend was never altered.

i'm not sure if it's possible to have the same long and slow uptrend (carry) just yet. i still believe there will be a fall to the 18x.xx levels, maybe not very soon, but soon. there where lots of times where charts were screaming UP, only to slap everyone in the ass and fall 1k pips.

i'm going to be ready for either case. and i think, just like u said, that 213 should be a key area for further up. but i disagree that 209 is the key area for the fall, i would think it would be 207.78-80; this area was where the price failed to close above 3 times in a row back in april, and as soon as it closed above the pair was exhausted and fell to find huge support at the 204 area which was a lower TL. that TL is now around 205.5, and even if reached, wouldn't alter the uptrend either. we need those key areas breached before the confirmation of the fall.

anything's possible though, this sucker has been confusing lots of traders lately, i'm one of them.
If 204/205 will be revisited, then my sell order sitting below 209 will be rewarded. As the uptrend gains momentum, new levels of support will be established to build a solid base from which to build upon. The same goes for a downtrend. In an uptrend, each correction provides another opportunity to own geppy at a good price, and to build wealth slowly and steady by daily swap payments.
  • #93,660
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:32pm Jun 14, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting lilmoe
what would think if have another gap this sunday? that be the third time in a row. does that have anything to do with risk aversion?
As for any gap, I will cross that bridge when I get to it.

The gap has more to do with orders coming in after close of markets.
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