DislikedGood, I'm not posting in this thread to sounding like a wanna-be hot-shot lol.
What TF do you trade ? If you trade yearly/monthly TF I understand your point of view. If not, I don't.
What do you consider as retrace ? Bears dumping their position now ? From 250 area? When will you accept and most important of all; benefit from a possible uptrend? When 250 is taken out ? Don't get too caught up in the past. A lot have changed since the down-trend started in 2007. Did you notice that this pair have been bullish from start of 2000 till 2007 ? Thats 7 years. This down-trend haven't lasted a year ! I hope you understand what I'm trying to say, because this is my last try
An day-trader couldn't care less what the monthly trend is. If I'm wrong, please tell me how I can benefit from the monthly downtrend trading from 1h till daily-chart.
We have to ask ourself why do we bother ourself by catching/measuring trend? Because its the path of money. Big money. The longer the trend last, clearer the trend becomes to everyone else. When it's too clear, it ends. And every newcomers try to enter. And they got smacked. Hard. And they obtain fear to enter any clear trend in the future or fail to see when trend ends. "Mr. Market", as Benjamin Graham called it, isn't known to run charitys.
Like with the e/u right now. Almost everyone is bearish on this pair. Why am I not ? Because of two things; everyone is bearish and daily support is still holding. My profit is someone else's loss. My loss is someone else's profit. Do I exclude the scenario where short positions are in favor ? Hell no. I know I can be dead wrong, and I'm willing to change my dance-shoes quick as hell if so, too.
I don't understand what you're saying here. If it's not a typo, then we should expect more upside since the 38.6 fibo hasn't been hit, as price is caught between two fibo levels in a upmove, agree? Ok.
We all know that fibo can have some effect on price. There is no such thing as 100% in any given market. Remember that fibo levels, included every other technical analyze, is all about possibilities ! You can't say with 100% success-rate that every "retrace"/move can be measured by fibs or anything else. So it's all about finding out what scenarios gives you best probabilities.Ignored
I trade the monthly and weekly chart mainly, on this pair.