Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade) | Page 4682 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Auslanco-GBP/JPY Strength Indicator strategy 345 replies

Auslanco 15min GBP/JPY startegy 630 replies

My MT4 indicators for Auslanco's strategy 92 replies

Auslanco 15 minute Strategy Oanda FXManager Updates.. 62 replies

Questions About Auslanco's Trades 72 replies

Attachments: Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
Exit Attachments

Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #93,621
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:48pm Jun 13, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting aediaz1
Good, I'm not posting in this thread to sounding like a wanna-be hot-shot lol.

What TF do you trade ? If you trade yearly/monthly TF I understand your point of view. If not, I don't.

What do you consider as retrace ? Bears dumping their position now ? From 250 area? When will you accept and most important of all; benefit from a possible uptrend? When 250 is taken out ? Don't get too caught up in the past. A lot have changed since the down-trend started in 2007. Did you notice that this pair have been bullish from start of 2000 till 2007 ? Thats 7 years. This down-trend haven't lasted a year ! I hope you understand what I'm trying to say, because this is my last try

An day-trader couldn't care less what the monthly trend is. If I'm wrong, please tell me how I can benefit from the monthly downtrend trading from 1h till daily-chart.

We have to ask ourself why do we bother ourself by catching/measuring trend? Because its the path of money. Big money. The longer the trend last, clearer the trend becomes to everyone else. When it's too clear, it ends. And every newcomers try to enter. And they got smacked. Hard. And they obtain fear to enter any clear trend in the future or fail to see when trend ends. "Mr. Market", as Benjamin Graham called it, isn't known to run charitys.

Like with the e/u right now. Almost everyone is bearish on this pair. Why am I not ? Because of two things; everyone is bearish and daily support is still holding. My profit is someone else's loss. My loss is someone else's profit. Do I exclude the scenario where short positions are in favor ? Hell no. I know I can be dead wrong, and I'm willing to change my dance-shoes quick as hell if so, too.



I don't understand what you're saying here. If it's not a typo, then we should expect more upside since the 38.6 fibo hasn't been hit, as price is caught between two fibo levels in a upmove, agree? Ok.

We all know that fibo can have some effect on price. There is no such thing as 100% in any given market. Remember that fibo levels, included every other technical analyze, is all about possibilities ! You can't say with 100% success-rate that every "retrace"/move can be measured by fibs or anything else. So it's all about finding out what scenarios gives you best probabilities.
yes, we are in an upmove to at least the 38 fib. If you zoom out on your monthly chart you will see a long term downtrend that turned into a long term uptrend that turned again at 251 to 192. I am buying dips for now until i see a change of market sentiment. The chart shows that we have short term/mid term bottom at 192 followed by 3 bullish candles (current candle not complete) and I cannot call the most recent downtrend over until she reaches past the 38 fib with a closed candle and price remains above the 38 fib. To me it is too soon to call the downmove over yet. There is still a possiblity of a bounce at the 38 fib and a retest of the lows, although there is good buying interest at 209 where bulls are attempting to establish a base to build upon. I expect a counter attack from 213 by bears. Who wins this battle? The monthly chart does not say for sure yet, so I cannot call it yet.

I trade the monthly and weekly chart mainly, on this pair.
  • #93,622
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:57pm Jun 13, 2008 8:57pm
aediaz1, I am tending to agree with your previous explination of the markets more and more lately. You don't have to out smart "MR. Market" you just have to get to know him and his bag o' tricks.
  • #93,623
  • Edited 9:16pm Jun 13, 2008 8:58pm | Edited 9:16pm
here is a zoomed out monthly geppy chart showing a long term downtrend.

I hope this explains my point of view for ya.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy monthly 2.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #93,624
  • Jun 13, 2008 9:08pm Jun 13, 2008 9:08pm
Quoting aediaz1
Good, I'm not posting in this thread to sounding like a wanna-be hot-shot lol.

What TF do you trade ? If you trade yearly/monthly TF I understand your point of view. If not, I don't.

What do you consider as retrace ? Bears dumping their position now ? From 250 area? When will you accept and most important of all; benefit from a possible uptrend? When 250 is taken out ? Don't get too caught up in the past. A lot have changed since the down-trend started in 2007. Did you notice that this pair have been bullish from start of 2000 till 2007 ? Thats 7 years. This down-trend haven't lasted a year ! I hope you understand what I'm trying to say, because this is my last try

An day-trader couldn't care less what the monthly trend is. If I'm wrong, please tell me how I can benefit from the monthly downtrend trading from 1h till daily-chart.

We have to ask ourself why do we bother ourself by catching/measuring trend? Because its the path of money. Big money. The longer the trend last, clearer the trend becomes to everyone else. When it's too clear, it ends. And every newcomers try to enter. And they got smacked. Hard. And they obtain fear to enter any clear trend in the future or fail to see when trend ends. "Mr. Market", as Benjamin Graham called it, isn't known to run charitys.

Like with the e/u right now. Almost everyone is bearish on this pair. Why am I not ? Because of two things; everyone is bearish and daily support is still holding. My profit is someone else's loss. My loss is someone else's profit. Do I exclude the scenario where short positions are in favor ? Hell no. I know I can be dead wrong, and I'm willing to change my dance-shoes quick as hell if so, too.



I don't understand what you're saying here. If it's not a typo, then we should expect more upside since the 38.6 fibo hasn't been hit, as price is caught between two fibo levels in a upmove, agree? Ok.

We all know that fibo can have some effect on price. There is no such thing as 100% in any given market. Remember that fibo levels, included every other technical analyze, is all about possibilities ! You can't say with 100% success-rate that every "retrace"/move can be measured by fibs or anything else. So it's all about finding out what scenarios gives you best probabilities.
As for eur/usd, i have a buy order sitting at the possible double bottom and will ride her to 1.58 if the longer term uptrend continues. I see more upside to the euro than the usd. But I also see a possible recession for the E.U also. I am leaving my options open, but leaning on a resumption of the eur/usd upward bias. But i cannot rule out a correction to 1.50 either.
  • #93,625
  • Jun 13, 2008 9:34pm Jun 13, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting ovaforty
here is a zoomed out monthly chart showing a long term downtrend.

I hope this explains my point of view for ya.
I just don't see it..the latest moves on your chart are like nothing you can find in that down trend. Plus higher highs and higher lows since 2001. A bit of a drop due yeah, but a down trend? ..no.
Just my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu monthly.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #93,626
  • Jun 13, 2008 9:35pm Jun 13, 2008 9:35pm
Ovaforty; Healthy discussion so far.

Since we are talking monthly chart, we can discuss it some more. Been a long time since I've discussed monthly with someone.

This pair have newly formed a (possible) HL on monthly chart. That's some of the factors decreasing the probability for more bears in the next months. Although, its only a possibility. And this info is provided with some very simple/basic and efficient technical analyze.

1 more candy for possible upward trend "hidden" in the chart


Petefaders: Indeed. Learn to play with the market, not against.

I'm calling it a weekend, enjoy it all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjmontly.jpg Size: 74 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #93,627
  • Jun 13, 2008 9:51pm Jun 13, 2008 9:51pm
Quoting aediaz1
Ovaforty; Healthy discussion so far.

Since we are talking monthly chart, we can discuss it some more. Been a long time since I've discussed monthly with someone.

This pair have newly formed a (possible) HL on monthly chart. That's some of the factors decreasing the probability for more bears in the next months. Although, its only a possibility. And this info is provided with some very simple/basic and efficient technical analyze.

1 more candy for possible upward trend "hidden" in the chart


Petefaders: Indeed. Learn to play with the market, not against.

I'm calling it a weekend, enjoy it all.
I am with you, bro. But at this point in in time i cannot rule out a re-test of the lows. I will be happy to collect a daily swap for the next few years. I have straddled this range and I will profit from whichever direction she breaks out.
  • #93,628
  • Jun 13, 2008 9:55pm Jun 13, 2008 9:55pm
Quoting Petefaders
I just don't see it..the latest moves on your chart are like nothing you can find in that down trend. Plus higher highs and higher lows since 2001. A bit of a drop due yeah, but a down trend? ..no.
Just my opinion.
I should use the term correction instead of downtrend. I stand corrected. TY
  • #93,629
  • Jun 13, 2008 10:55pm Jun 13, 2008 10:55pm
Quoting aediaz1
Ovaforty; Healthy discussion so far.

Since we are talking monthly chart, we can discuss it some more. Been a long time since I've discussed monthly with someone.

This pair have newly formed a (possible) HL on monthly chart. That's some of the factors decreasing the probability for more bears in the next months. Although, its only a possibility. And this info is provided with some very simple/basic and efficient technical analyze.

1 more candy for possible upward trend "hidden" in the chart


Petefaders: Indeed. Learn to play with the market, not against.

I'm calling it a weekend, enjoy it all.
Is the candy the rsi? looking good
  • #93,630
  • Jun 14, 2008 12:01am Jun 14, 2008 12:01am
Quoting doughboi
I doubtyou could manage someone else's funds let alone your own. From what you have said, you stated you open 3 positions on a trade closing them out at different targets while setting to BE when one is achieved, what happens when you get stopped? Go ahead and times it by 3. Day trading this way is impossible in the long run and you will be running with your tail in-between your legs if you ever attempted to "sell" signals. Like i said, I doubt your real account reflects of what you try to make yourself to be on this thread. I have been watching this thread for a while, and what your doing is VERY annoying. I do not want to see a bunch of post of someone saying "buy" "no wait, im closing and selling!" and blah,blah,blah,blah BLAH. I do appreciate your analysis, but please dont turn this into a signal thread AKA "dick waving contest" because that is what your doing, or at least the way your coming off. IT IS VERY ANNOYING bro. Go start a thread for that bullshit and for the people that enjoy that mess, cause i sure as hell dont.

what a sorry loser,

u have no idea how much i laughed when i read ur post... i'm sorry u lost money trading others' signals blindly, and if u cant read (or comprehend) my analysis after reversing a trade when the price bounced off its 50% fib and only "read" my "signal" and traded it blindly, then i would suggest u abandon this job and go back to dishwashing in a pizza place. now why do we have cooks and bartenders here, dude, this is a place for intellect not ignorance.

again. someone who can't read english is not even worth replying to or wasting more time with.

now if i remember correctly, when people like u come to the thread this is what auslanco used to say:

"get a hike!"

  • #93,631
  • Edited 2:03am Jun 14, 2008 12:09am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting PandoraBox
Lilmoe post ...annoying??


I think you need to learn to respect other people post. When somebody said…buy or sell, you should go back to your chart and make the comparison. That what I did. Since Monday all traders give sell signal to GJ, but what I saw GJ are in the position to f#ck the bear, it is vice verse with lilmoe post and I made a huge profit this week.

If you not satisfied with their post …you just ignore it. I think you have made a big or huge loss due to following other people signal.

People will respect you when you start to respect other people first.

To lilmoe, you has done a good job, sharing your ideas
these kinds of posts don't bother me anymore. it's probably one of those guys who PM'ed me asking me to manage their accounts but i refused. so maybe he's just pissed, let him be, if that helps any. i understand.

i'll stay here bro i want to learn more and share what i learn
  • #93,632
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:01am Jun 14, 2008 1:01am
Quoting aediaz1
How do you know ? It amaze me how "different" people determinate trend. So you say the trend is down on monthly. Now is it ? Trend doesn't last forever, unfortunately. What if I said it's a so-called "correction" for a great bull-run since millennium ? Another fact; G/J have had 3 months in a row dominated by bulls. Why is this "down-trend" mentioned so much ? Because I can't see any. 99.99% if not 100% of all participants in this thread doesn't trade based on monthly chart. Or formulated this way; I can't possible imagine someone is taking short positions now because the "monthly trend is down".

This is not a bash on you ovaforty, so don't take this the wrong way. I simply try to throw a cent in here, because there is, IMO, some mis-perceptions on trend(s) walking by here.

First signs of upward trend (establishing) have been shown by daily chart many weeks ago.
Buy Entry 205, TP 254
Sell Order at 254
  • #93,633
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:37am Jun 14, 2008 1:37am
Quoting doughboi
From what you have said, you stated you open 3 positions on a trade closing them out at different targets while setting to BE when one is achieved, what happens when you get stopped? Go ahead and times it by 3. Day trading this way is impossible in the long.
this is not for you, it's for those who actually are interested in my system. i actually thank you for making it clearer to me what "some" others might be thinking when reading my posts. and i'm very sorry, i should have pointed out the obvious. i really didn't think had to, but it seems that i do. i would suggest before continuing reading my post to go back and read the very first post on this thread about money management.

i've said this before, and will say it again; this system is not to trade blindly, and if anyone thinks that he/she can throw away all other technical analysis and tools and just trade this system, then they're mistaken. THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THIS SYSTEM IS TO ENHANCE YOUR ENTRIES AND YOUR EXITS.

the calls that i make (based on the system) are NOT, to wave my "di@#" (thanks for the comment), it was because lots of traders PM'ed me asking for live examples. it was not directed to those who just follow signals blindly and find it "annoying" when a trade was reversed in a short period of time.

when i first introduced the original system to auslanco more than 9 months ago, it was after the original 4h/1h strategies have failed in the ranging and/or consolidation periods after each major fall or rally. i originally suggested having 2 trades, the first with a 90-100 pip profit and the second trade stays open till a gann reversal (i will get back why i suggested splitting the trade in a bit). i stopped posting in this thread for about 2-3 months due to some circumstances, but i was still trading on my own and further enhancing my system, and came back not too long ago.

i'm not sure if someone can in fact use high timeframes (4h and above) in a consolidation or ranging period, and the original m15 strategy was failing miserably back then. (this is also to reply to someone who said they were here "way" before i was, but that doesn't matter, i could care less who's "first"). i then suggested the m30 timeframe. the only problem was the amount of "indicators" involved to "filter out" the bad trades. THAT was a bad idea, and THAT was the major fault of the m15 strategy. the m15 timeframe is very small and (i think) in such markets, and having that many indicators involved would only generate confusion. the m30 timeframe would get someone a better entry and a more steady exit, Especially when trading the geppy. the original m30 system was mostly based on the m15 strategy, with different settings and of course a different timeframe.

a good trader (Actually a VERY good trader), hakuna matata, was posting on this thread back then, he introduced the 50ema on all timeframes. he also opened my eyes on how amazing the way price moved about it. DP is a textbook S/R level. i was actually not surprised when auslanco started using it in the m15 system. although i didn't believe in it much back then, i came to realize that it was actually very handy and powerful.

price action, FEs, fibo fans, fibo retracements, TLs, Breakouts, and so on are just a bliss. trading those is absolutely great. BUTTTT when should i enter or exit??? when a fibo level is breached, one should expect the next level right? what if that level was 300 pips away? should i just sit there and wait for price to get there (provided that it will) and lose all the other swings along the way? too costly IMO. i decided to further enhance the system, to what is described in the link i have in my signature.

a couple of hours after "re-introducing" the enhanced version, a couple of good traders said: look lilmoe, if u treat this system as a breakout or divergence confirmation then it's BIG winner!!. see, it didn't take too much time for someone who actually has trading sense to figure that one out, or even to "Adjust" the system to their own needs.

now that u know what i had in mind when developing this system, and after pulling out your hair from boredom, i'll get back to the main point: multiple positioning.

for the geppy, the m30 system gives me 7:3 and sometimes 6:4 wins to loss ration. which in some months were 8:2. now the ONLY and MAJOR difference between this system and the m15 strategy was the TPs. as i stated earlier, my original proposal was a 1st 90-100 pip TP and a second open till gann flips. the SL for both was also 90-100 pips. that was another fault of the original proposal. there are lots of times when an entry was perfect but price only gave the trade 50-70 pips before reversing. i back tested for 3 years and there was a huge amount of those.

i then thought that 3 trades was a better idea with the first TP to be 50 pips. it is also a good idea to make that 1st TP the biggest portion of the trade considering that 50 pips is not a major profit margin especially if that was just 1 TP out of 3 trades. if you consider it closely, you will find that he first TP is NOT for profit purpose it's actually an ass saver, lol, for a losing trade. remember again, minimizing loss and maximizing profit is the major thing i had in mind when i enhanced it.

Quoting doughboi
I do not want to see a bunch of post of someone saying "buy" "no wait, im closing and selling!" and blah,blah,blah,blah BLAH. I do appreciate your analysis, but please dont turn this into a signal thread AKA "dick waving contest" because that is what your doing, or at least the way your coming off. IT IS VERY ANNOYING bro. Go start a thread for that bullshit and for the people that enjoy that mess, cause i sure as hell dont.
this is for you. neither this thread nor FF is paid service, it's actually free. and you don't always get what you "want" when the service is free. hell, this is by all means NOT a service, it's a place where traders share their experience. i don't see your experience shared around, so i would suggest you keep your comments to yourself. your opinion DOES not and SHOULD matter when you're not a member, and when i say a member, i mean those who actually share analysis in a civilized manner.

thank you very much for your generous comments, and have a nice weekend. i'm sorry about my earlier post to you, i don't hate you, but i really HATE the way you got at me out of the blue.
  • #93,634
  • Edited 2:55am Jun 14, 2008 2:35am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting ovaforty
I should use the term correction instead of downtrend. I stand corrected. TY
so we are in deed in an up trend and if this candle closed to the south we are in a reversal of the up trend, if it goes realy south, like to the low 200's, then is a correction to the down trend, and if this candle close north then we are resumin the up trend, all over for the bears and welcome to the carry trade, please correct me if I'm wrong, sorry I'm trying to learn
The Chonchy
  • #93,635
  • Edited 3:30am Jun 14, 2008 3:13am | Edited 3:30am
Overall trend looks still bullish but I m expecting to have valid trend exhaustion nextweek.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pfxs_13_06_h4_1.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #93,636
  • Jun 14, 2008 5:54am Jun 14, 2008 5:54am
There was a quake in Japan anyone hear anything about it? from what i found it doesn't look that bad tho this report says 3 people lost their lives may they Rest in Peace.
I'm just wondering if anyone has heard anything other than what's in this link.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...?section=world
  • #93,637
  • Jun 14, 2008 7:21am Jun 14, 2008 7:21am
Quoting ffujifilm
Overall trend looks still bullish but I m expecting to have valid trend exhaustion nextweek.

just like the other week back? i think we might have the same too.
  • #93,638
  • Edited 8:24am Jun 14, 2008 7:38am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting chonchy
so we are in deed in an up trend and if this candle closed to the south we are in a reversal of the up trend, if it goes realy south, like to the low 200's, then is a correction to the down trend, and if this candle close north then we are resumin the up trend, all over for the bears and welcome to the carry trade, please correct me if I'm wrong, sorry I'm trying to learn
From what i see on the daily and weekly charts, the uptrend has shown signs of establishing itself quite clearly. But on the monthly chart, I cannot rule out a re-test of the lows yet. If the current monthly candle closes as a bull candle, then we will have a 3 crows pattern which is usually bullish, meaning an uptrend.

The safest strategy for now is to buy dips in geppy. Wait for a rejection of each move down to buy dips safely. Collect a nice daily swap until things change.
  • #93,639
  • Jun 14, 2008 8:05am Jun 14, 2008 8:05am
Range trading can be profitable if you draw trendlines at the top and bottom of a definite range in any currency pair. Be sure you look at the longer time frames first to establish the overall trend of the pair. If the pair is trending upwards, for instance you would give more weight to buying dips, after you see a rejection of any down move. Then while maintaining your long position you can sell retracements for a scalp down to capture pips. This is called covering your position.

If the original uptrend is a strong trend in the pair, then you are building small long positions each time it retraces.

Eur/usd is in a good position to resume the multi year uptrend at some point in my opinion. I see more upside in the Eur than I do in the usd. And for now you get a small positive swap. When and if this correction in eur/usd runs out of steam, start building small positions after rejection of the correction downward. move your stop losses to break even when the uptrend has resumed, then move them up as the pair moves up to trail the upmove. then you have no a loss position.
  • #93,640
  • Jun 14, 2008 8:49am Jun 14, 2008 8:49am
aud/usd is possibly another good set up forming. Good positive swap and a long term uptrend. Be patient and wait to see the correction run out of steam at some point. If the uptrend resumes you can build positions in this pair also.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd weekly.gif Size: 25 KB
52 traders viewing now