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  • #3,881
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:10am Jun 14, 2008 9:10am
Quoting ztdep
Dear bobokus:
i was just see your excise about draw fibs on the daily chart. the time is from 2007 march to 2007 oct. i have some problem about it.
just as you said in the thread:' since the high of 2.1161 has been madethis pair has gone into deep correction. the way i handle the uptrend fib now is since its levels have been broken i have to go back father in time to see hwat the next level are bloe the low htat i am currenty using"
i think since the fib is broken, then the trend is reversed to a down trend.
why to move the low to another low. so in practice , how to decide the position of the low.
if we move the low of uptrend to another low, we are in the up trend yet. but if we do not, we are in a downtrend.
i am confused .
regards
This part is hard to describe but once the shorter term uptreding moves levels began to fail, you have to look farther back in time to find the next levels below price that will offer support, at the present we have to go all the way back to november of 2005 now where this last major uptrending move began to find the next major support levels.
  • #3,882
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:14am Jun 14, 2008 9:14am
Quoting lordgbengs
dear ztdep,

i can authoritatively tell you dat for the month of june if any of the majors break its previous high or low it will get to 10-15 pips or less away from T1 70% of the time,the oda 30% is either it doesnt break d low at all or it breaks and gets halfway.this stat is 70% correct on GU,EU,UC and 60% on UJ.

Also if there is a consolidation on a day and u draw ur intraday fibs,u will discover that break above or below the intraday short and long will most of the time hit ur T1 am still looking at dis though.

Then candlesticks pattern 2,also sometimes i change my chart to line chart to see formations (double top or buttom,triangles e.t.c) and get a broader veiw.then also trendlines i discovered trendlines are most of the time accurate wen u view it as a line chart and draw ur trendlines,all dis is only on the majors.I will advise u open a naked chart and apply ur trendline and triangles wth line charts,in so doin u will see formations then u can switch back to candlesticks

I use d fibs as probable targets.but i must say bobokus has done a g8t job.tnx bobo

pls demo it b4 putting real money,Never trade in isolation make ur indicators interdependent.
You make some very good points Lordgbengs, Your going to do very well as a trader.
  • #3,883
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:25am Jun 14, 2008 9:25am
tnx for the compliment,but i hav to be grateful to you for ur strategy it really opened my eyes.thanks
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,884
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:34am Jun 14, 2008 9:34am
Quoting ztdep
Dear bobokus:
i was just see your excise about draw fibs on the daily chart. the time is from 2007 march to 2007 oct. i have some problem about it.
just as you said in the thread:' since the high of 2.1161 has been madethis pair has gone into deep correction. the way i handle the uptrend fib now is since its levels have been broken i have to go back father in time to see hwat the next level are bloe the low htat i am currenty using"
i think since the fib is broken, then the trend is reversed to a down trend.
why to move the low to another low. so in practice , how to decide the position of the low.
if we move the low of uptrend to another low, we are in the up trend yet. but if we do not, we are in a downtrend.
i am confused .
regards
Maybe this will help, in the shorter term from this last push up in the uptrend of cable shows its support levels have failed and targets 1.9073. If we look back at the entire uptrending move now for the major support levels we have the 50% retrace which is very common with Cable at 1.9104. If this downtrend is to continue and is supported fundamentally we have longer term goals of 1.9104/1.9073.
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  • #3,885
  • Jun 14, 2008 9:46am Jun 14, 2008 9:46am
Current downtrending move shows a very similar picture although not likely since this target is so far away its not practical. I mean that the market sentiment can change many times before a target this far away can be reached if at all. Dollar would have to remain strong for an extended period of time and in these days it doesnt make sense that will happen.
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  • #3,886
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:35am Jun 14, 2008 10:35am
looking at UC it seems the coming week will be bullish all things being equal

reason:the last candle on the weekly and daily chart was bullish,on the weekly it was a bullish engulfing and according to my fibs the price closed at my daily resistance failure on the daily and weekly,and there is a trendline that coincides wth this level i attached the charts for all to see.Hope it works as planned,pls if i miss anytin pls let me know bobokus
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D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,887
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:45am Jun 14, 2008 10:45am
looking at UC it seems the coming week will be bullish all things being equal

reason:the last candle on the weekly and daily chart was bullish,on the weekly it was a bullish engulfing and according to my fibs the price closed at my daily resistance failure on the daily and weekly,and there is a trendline that coincides wth this level i attached the charts for all to see.Hope it works as planned,pls if i miss anytin pls let me know bobokus
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,888
  • Jun 14, 2008 10:58am Jun 14, 2008 10:58am
G-8 ministers say US housing, financial strains 'may adversely affect' world
OSAKA, Japan (Thomson Financial) - G-8 finance ministers meeting in Japan today warned that ongoing housing and financial market strains in the US could have a broader impact on the global economy, as could food and energy price hikes that are occurring around the world.

'Further declines in housing prices in the United States and greater strains in the financial markets may adversely affect the global outlook,' ministers said in a statement released after their meeting in Osaka.

'Elevated commodity prices, especially oil and food, pose a serious challenge to stable growth worldwide, have serious implications for the most vulnerable, and may increase global inflationary pressure,' the statement added. 'These conditions make our policy choices more complicated.'

On the downside risks posed by the ongoing mortgage and credit crises, the G-8 reiterated its sense that central banks' offering of new liquidity has helped improve financial market conditions over the last few months. However, it said market strains remain, and said market participants need to improve transparency and risk awareness going forward.

'We will remain vigilant, and will continue to take appropriate actions, individually and collectively, in order to secure stability and growth in our economies,' the statement said.

Rising food and energy prices were a major topic of this weekend's meeting, and G-8 members -- Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US -- met Friday night in Osaka for a dinner in which they agreed that the best way to fight these price increases is to increase the supply of both.

The final statement from the G-8 said ministers have 'sharp concerns' about the rise in oil prices, and said the answer on the supply side is to 'urge oil producing countries to increase production and to invest to enhance long-term production capacity.'

Ministers also called for more transparency in market data relating to oil stocks and financial flows into oil-producing countries.

On the demand side, ministers said countries must become more energy efficient and reduce energy subsidies.

The US has downplayed the idea that speculation in energy futures markets has been a significant contributor to rising energy prices. At the Friday dinner, countries said speculation probably affects price, although it is not clear from the evidence how big a factor this is.

The G-8 statement reflected this uncertainty by treating financial speculation as a factor, but one that is not as important as supply and demand.

'Elevated oil prices fundamentally reflect rising world demand and supply constraints, but other elements such as geopolitical concerns and financial factors also play a role,' the statement said.

The idea that a weak dollar may be contributing to energy price increases was not discussed at Friday's dinner, and was not mentioned in the final G-8 statement.

Regarding food price increases, ministers said members should increase food aid to countries that are short of food in light of rising prices. In the medium term, ministers asked international organizations to increase food production.

While finance ministers in recent meetings noted their worry over fluctuations in the currency markets, today's G-8 statement included no language on currency.

The previous meeting of developed-country finance ministers, held in Washington last April, resulted in a statement that said ministers are 'concerned about possible implications for economic and financial stability' in these currency moves.

Economists saw that language as a sign that an agreed intervention in the currency market may be coming, and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in recent weeks has declined to rule this out as an option.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,889
  • Jun 14, 2008 11:48am Jun 14, 2008 11:48am
Quoting lordgbengs
For the coming week:this is my outlook

GU-downtrend if price breaks 1.9357
EU - downtrend if price breaks 1.5344
UC - uptrend if price breaks 1.0590
UJ - uptrend if price breaks 108.60

what do u guys think?
As for EU and GU, i think we can still do with a little patience thus:
EU - wait for a break of 1.5284 (May Low & 50%fib of 1.4439-1.6019) to confirm downtrend
GU - a clear break of 1.9338 Jan Low will do

Quote
patience makes you a good sniper
  • #3,890
  • Jun 15, 2008 2:48am Jun 15, 2008 2:48am
Quoting ztdep
another excellent lecture of the bobokus
this ebook is not coming up as its showing error.pls check it. thanks
  • #3,891
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:06am Jun 15, 2008 8:06am
Quote
For the coming week:this is my outlook GU-downtrend if price breaks 1.9357
Well here is wot I will have to say concerning GU for this week, no doubt, the week is bearish base on candle stick formation except 1.9757 fails to hold. The retracement fib from the large wave from the fib draw from 2.116? is still holding, so still bearish, trendline is still holding, but we have seen a bounce from a strong support which have been holding since jan 2008, forming a reversal candle, I see GU retracing to 1.96?? if 1.9549 resistance fails to hold before plunging down. Now if all these aforementioned is respected and price finally retrace from 1.96?? back to 1.9357 support arena, a break from that support will see GU moves down to possible 200pips I think this week will determine if the GU bearish move will be sustained. Thanks
  • #3,892
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:44am Jun 15, 2008 8:44am
Hi Bobokus. Hi guys.

Great job with this thread. This is my first post.I read the thread twice and I made the exercises.Now trying to apply on live trading.
Please be king and look if my fibs are ok for UsdJpy.If they are ok that mean the bias is up and the target will be Retracement T1?
And also can you post a template for GbpJpy? I really appreciate.

Thanks a lot for your time.
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  • #3,893
  • Jun 15, 2008 12:16pm Jun 15, 2008 12:16pm
Quoting bogdan1
Hi Bobokus. Hi guys.

Great job with this thread. This is my first post.I read the thread twice and I made the exercises.Now trying to apply on live trading.
Please be king and look if my fibs are ok for UsdJpy.If they are ok that mean the bias is up and the target will be Retracement T1?
And also can you post a template for GbpJpy? I really appreciate.

Thanks a lot for your time.
Your right on track with USD/Yen. I would expect some drop in price before it can reach its target range this time, as long as support holds again it should continue up, will have to keep an eye on fundamentals for the dips to test support levels.
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  • #3,894
  • Jun 15, 2008 12:18pm Jun 15, 2008 12:18pm
You have a very similar picture with gbp/yen.
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  • #3,895
  • Jun 15, 2008 12:30pm Jun 15, 2008 12:30pm
THANKS A LOT , BO.
I'm following the thread and hope to learn trading with fibs.
Wish you all a Great Week
  • #3,896
  • Jun 15, 2008 12:40pm Jun 15, 2008 12:40pm
What I see from Cable is the downtrend still prevailing. Looking at this from the Daily and the short term, the move down from mid March shows resistance from that move is containing rally's so far. We are do another push up but I look to sell into it again when it does and after Friday it looks very likely to happen. Another push up should be able to reach 1.9600 range where we can start to look for a failure and the down trending move to continue. I think personally another attempt on the lows of 1.9360/1.9330 will break after another failure to break long and get past the retracement and downtrend levels.It will be like blood in the water and the sharks are going to jump on it if 1.9360/1.9330 breaks.
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  • #3,897
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:33pm Jun 15, 2008 8:33pm
Attached Image


Those are the seperators i get ...i have a daily candle for sunday that already closed....I am using odl metatrader the canldes close at 8 pm eastern time...tell me what you think...
  • #3,898
  • Edited 9:48pm Jun 15, 2008 9:18pm | Edited 9:48pm
Hello my dear mentor. I am happy to see you are still active in here! I for my self have had a rough period hitting SL after SL trading high risk the NZDUSD and everytime i thought the market was done with me, some high stakes TP have brought me back just to make me realize that as long their was some bread left on the table i could make it grow very fast. I was on a roller coaster, the only goal was to get a million quick!

How fool was i then...

I then stop trading completly for about 6 months. I healed myself, i had become a compulsive gambler playing forex like it was texas hold'em! I realized a lot of stuff since then! Money is not important in my life. I have a good day job that i like, a wife that i love and kids that i want to see grow up. A roof over my head, food on the table and a good computer (and 2 x 22inch monitors hehe) is all i really request from life, the rest is extras!

I got back into trading just for fun i deposit 100$ on Oanda and risk now no more then 2% on GU, using the fibs and AdvanceAMA as pivot. I want to stop jumping from method to method. Fibo trading the GU have been the most logical way of trading i can understand. Tell me the truth, have you been growing your account? (But I shouldn't ask!) And what happened to Skunny boy?

This beeing said, I know it's only sunday but looking at the intraday fibs i bet it's up to at least 1.9538-9611 area.

Highest regards.
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #3,899
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:32am Jun 16, 2008 12:32am
Dear bobokus:
I have some confustion about the intrday fibs. today.
am i right to draw fib like this. or should i draw it from the last friday's high.
regards.
i see the price bounce from the long fib, so i made a long, i did not take profit at the high, i am now in a lose.
regards
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I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #3,900
  • Jun 16, 2008 12:44am Jun 16, 2008 12:44am
Quoting ztdep
Dear bobokus:
I have some confustion about the intrday fibs. today.
am i right to draw fib like this. or should i draw it from the last friday's high.
regards.
i see the price bounce from the long fib, so i made a long, i did not take profit at the high, i am now in a lose.
regards

PLace a swing fibb from the moment priced bounced to new high....if those levels hold as support you are in good shape....stop trying to run after a trade all you had left in the market today really was the breack of the high and i did not take it since it was a low probabilty trade since we had that downward trednline look at my chart...Now I am waiting to see if this levels hold as support then i would take it from there to the intraday high if they hold...if not i would play the reversal...

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