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Weekly Gbpjpy Breakout System

  • #321
  • Jun 12, 2008 12:57pm Jun 12, 2008 12:57pm
Hi,

I'm following this system for a few weeks now,
and after the good results I got live on monday.

I waited for the gap close on monday before I placed my trades.

There isn't much to say during the week, looks like trades are finished every monday with good results.

I really want to thank all the contributors to this thread.
It helped me a lot to build up confidence.

LiT
  • #322
  • Jun 13, 2008 2:20pm Jun 13, 2008 2:20pm
I closed out my last night's "daily" trade @ BreakEven. No win, but more importantly...no loss. I have yet to lose since I started trading this way over the past two weeks or so. Admittedly, part of my trading was discretionary. I took profit on a few of the daily trades after fairly short gains. Most of the time, my meddling with the "rules" cost me even more profits.

Over the past 4 years of live trading, the only true success I have achieved has been trading some form of a straddle on the price. Although we are trading a breakout system, it is also a straddle. This is great because it is impossible to anticipate with any real degree of success, the direction price will take in even the very next second. With this system in place, we don't care which direction price takes.

It is great to take 5 minutes to calculate entry points and place pending trades. Wake up the next morning and count my profits! The only thing easier is teaching my dog to do the entries for me! LOL

Great trading my friends!
  • #323
  • Jun 13, 2008 2:25pm Jun 13, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting Bobcat2
I closed out my last night's "daily" trade @ BreakEven. No win, but more importantly...no loss. I have yet to lose since I started trading this way over the past two weeks or so. Admittedly, part of my trading was discretionary. I took profit on a few of the daily trades after fairly short gains. Most of the time, my meddling with the "rules" cost me even more profits.

Over the past 4 years of live trading, the only true success I have achieved has been trading some form of a straddle on the price. Although we are trading a breakout system, it is also a straddle. This is great because it is impossible to anticipate with any real degree of success, the direction price will take in even the very next second. With this system in place, we don't care which direction price takes.

It is great to take 5 minutes to calculate entry points and place pending trades. Wake up the next morning and count my profits! The only thing easier is teaching my dog to do the entries for me! LOL

Great trading my friends!
Bob, why don't you start a thread on the daily method?
I'll contribute to it as I'm sure others will.
We can backtest and optimize the rules- times, minimum ranges, when to close if the trade isn't complete...etc.

PS- Here's another breakout method that looks good. I've been going over the charts on it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91559
  • #324
  • Jun 13, 2008 3:33pm Jun 13, 2008 3:33pm
I also tried some daily trades,

because of the small size of my account
and after some research I started with EUR/USD.

Rules are nearly the same except the smaller range

I'm looking for a 50 pips range there.

For this week, from Tue to Thur all have been winners,
Friday trade has been break even (first hitting the buy trigger got stopped out then triggered sell and took profit)

I would also be interested on a thread for daily trades
(if not bound to gbp/jpy only)

pips with you
LiF
  • #325
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:46pm Jun 13, 2008 4:46pm
Can anyone please place the buy and sell entry orders for the coming week

I have an account with FXCM:
High = 210.71 (last 2 4h candles)
Low = 210.28 (last 2 4h candles)
which means that the range didn't reach 100 pips so I used the 3rd last 4h candles which gave me a low of 209.92
This means that we still didn't get 100 pips range

In north finance here is the figures:
High = 210.95
Low = 209.97
This means we didn't reach 100 pips range as well.
So I used the 3rd last 4h candle which gave me 209.99
This means that we still didn't get 100 pips range

What a strange week!!

I'm confused what to do and which figures to use
  • #326
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:58pm Jun 13, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting pino2
Can anyone please place the buy and sell entry orders for the coming week

I have an account with FXCM:
High = 210.71 (last 2 4h candles)
Low = 210.28 (last 2 4h candles)
which means that the range didn't reach 100 pips so I used the 3rd last 4h candles which gave me a low of 209.92
This means that we still didn't get 100 pips range

In north finance here is the figures:
High = 210.95
Low = 209.97
This means we didn't reach 100 pips range as well.
So I used the 3rd last 4h candle which gave me 209.99
This means that we still didn't get 100 pips range

What a strange week!!

I'm confused what to do and which figures to use

I got different numbers from North Finance than you did.
After going back three bars:

H=210.88
L=209.94

That's is 6 less than 100.

Add 3 pips to the H
Subtract 3 pips from the L, that will make the range 100.

H=210.91
L=209.91

Now do your +-1 pip and add the spread to the H.

For a 9 pip spread:

BUY= 211.01
SELL= 209.90
  • #327
  • Jun 13, 2008 5:07pm Jun 13, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting billbss
I got different numbers from North Finance than you did.
After going back three bars:

H=210.88
L=209.94

That's is 6 less than 100.

Add 3 pips to the H
Subtract 3 pips from the L, that will make the range 100.

H=210.91
L=209.91

Now do your +-1 pip and add the spread to the H.

For a 9 pip spread:

BUY= 211.01
SELL= 209.90
Thanks billbss for the great help
  • #328
  • Jun 13, 2008 10:48pm Jun 13, 2008 10:48pm
nice system... breakout system is my fav forex trading system
and i think GBP/JPY is the best pair for this system
Lazy Forex
  • #329
  • Jun 16, 2008 4:24am Jun 16, 2008 4:24am
Profit ,

now the 'wait for next week' starts again,

for the rest of the week i will daily trade eur/usd.

pip to all
LiF
  • #330
  • Jun 16, 2008 4:54am Jun 16, 2008 4:54am
Profit.
That's 23 winning weeks and 2 losing weeks this year.
  • #331
  • Jun 16, 2008 5:50am Jun 16, 2008 5:50am
Yes another great week with this system.

I have a small suggestion regarding money management that I have implemented lately. I'll close 2/3 of my position after half the TP and let the reamining 1/3 run (with the initial SL). 2 things can happen:
1) I get stopped out and the win for that week will be 1/3 of the opened position (I always consider % and never pips).
2) It'll run to next week. If it was a buy, the new stoploss will be the new weeks low, and vice versa. So if the new week also opens a buy, the 1/3 from last week will keep running this week and will keep accumulate profits. If the new week trend is opposite last weeks trend then I'll get stopped out with some profits as well.

This is good in cutting the losses short and letting the profits ride. For example the week that started 12 May had a buy, next week had a buy, and the next week as well. By keeping 1/3 from the those weeks you would have gained even more profits. They were all stopped out at the beginning of the 4th week. Now this system is so good that I'm even considering closing 1/2 at the TP (which would mean that I'll get a BE trade if turns against me after reaching TP) and letting the other 1/2 ride like above, and this will give even more profits.
  • #332
  • Jun 16, 2008 6:34am Jun 16, 2008 6:34am
Quoting NowAndLater
Yes another great week with this system.

I have a small suggestion regarding money management that I have implemented lately. I'll close 2/3 of my position after half the TP and let the reamining 1/3 run (with the initial SL). 2 things can happen:
1) I get stopped out and the win for that week will be 1/3 of the opened position (I always consider % and never pips).
2) It'll run to next week. If it was a buy, the new stoploss will be the new weeks low, and vice versa. So if the new week also opens a buy, the 1/3 from last week will keep running this week and will keep accumulate profits. If the new week trend is opposite last weeks trend then I'll get stopped out with some profits as well.

This is good in cutting the losses short and letting the profits ride. For example the week that started 12 May had a buy, next week had a buy, and the next week as well. By keeping 1/3 from the those weeks you would have gained even more profits. They were all stopped out at the beginning of the 4th week. Now this system is so good that I'm even considering closing 1/2 at the TP (which would mean that I'll get a BE trade if turns against me after reaching TP) and letting the other 1/2 ride like above, and this will give even more profits.
I wish you luck with it. It may work out better than the original rules.

I don't scale out on any system. I know it's a popular thing to do. Almost every method on this board uses some type of scale out on profit taking.

My thinking is this:
On every system there is an optimal exit point.
That is where we should exit.

With this method, for example, if the optimal point is 1:1 that's where we need to get out, with the entire trade. If it is not the best time to exit, we shouldn't exit with any portion of the trade at this point.

If it is optimal to let a winning trade run until x time, that's what we need to do, with the entire trade. If not, then none of it.

I've seen a number of computer runs on exit methods. Taking partial profits at various stages of a trade always hurts your overall profits.
  • #333
  • Jun 16, 2008 6:38am Jun 16, 2008 6:38am
Quoting billbss
I wish you luck with it. It may work out better than the original rules.

I don't scale out on any system. I know it's a popular thing to do. Almost every method on this board uses some type of scale out on profit taking.

My thinking is this:
On every system there is an optimal exit point.
That is where we should exit.

With this method, for example, if the optimal point is 1:1 that's where we need to get out, with the entire trade. If it is not the best time to exit, we shouldn't exit with any portion of the trade at this point.

If it is optimal to let a winning trade run until x time, that's what we need to do, with the entire trade. If not, then none of it.

I've seen a number of computer runs on exit methods. Taking partial profits at various stages of a trade always hurts your overall profits.
I see your point and wish you all the luck as well.
  • #334
  • Jun 16, 2008 8:29am Jun 16, 2008 8:29am
Profit. 3 Weekly wins...no losses to date. I will be trading this daily for the rest of the week. Since the daily version is largely untested, I only trade 10% of the amount that I trade weekly.
  • #335
  • Jun 20, 2008 3:37pm Jun 20, 2008 3:37pm
Can anyone please post the buy and sell orders for the coming week?
  • #336
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:35pm Jun 20, 2008 8:35pm
Hi Pino,

Here are the entries from North Finance for the week of 6-22-08

1. The (2) 4 Hour Candles Hi and Lo have a range of 92 pips. Therefore, we have to add the 3rd Candle for the proper settings.

2. High = 212.87

3. Low = 211.70

4. Range = 117 pips

5. Dealer Spread = 9 pips

Therefore the pending orders for the week are the following:

BUY = 212.97
Stop Loss = 211.69
Take Profit = 214.25

SELL = 211.69
Stop Loss = 212.97
Take Profit = 210.41

Bill, please confirm these entries. I don't want to misinform anyone. And...have a great weekend!

Bob
  • #337
  • Jun 20, 2008 9:05pm Jun 20, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Pino,

Here are the entries from North Finance for the week of 6-22-08

1. The (2) 4 Hour Candles Hi and Lo have a range of 92 pips. Therefore, we have to add the 3rd Candle for the proper settings.

2. High = 212.87

3. Low = 211.70

4. Range = 117 pips

5. Dealer Spread = 9 pips

Therefore the pending orders for the week are the following:

BUY = 212.97
Stop Loss = 211.69
Take Profit = 214.25

SELL = 211.69
Stop Loss = 212.97
Take Profit = 210.41

Bill, please confirm these entries. I don't want to misinform anyone. And...have a great weekend!

Bob
Bob, that's exactly what I get.
If it's wrong, we're both wrong

You have a great weekend, too.
Is it cool where you are? It's been hot here. I think it's going to be a scorcher this year.
  • #338
  • Jun 21, 2008 4:54am Jun 21, 2008 4:54am
Thanks to both of you
  • #339
  • Jun 21, 2008 11:40am Jun 21, 2008 11:40am
Bill,

I am located in SW Wisconsin, right on the border with Iowa. Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois are all within an hour's car ride from here.

Generally the summers here are hot and sweltering from about the beginning of July until the end of August. Years ago I lived in the Daytona Beach, Florida area within a mile of the oceanfront, and the summers there were no worse than here.

Where are you located? Family man?

Bob
  • #340
  • Jun 21, 2008 12:09pm Jun 21, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Bill,

I am located in SW Wisconsin, right on the border with Iowa. Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois are all within an hour's car ride from here.

Generally the summers here are hot and sweltering from about the beginning of July until the end of August. Years ago I lived in the Daytona Beach, Florida area within a mile of the oceanfront, and the summers there were no worse than here.

Where are you located? Family man?

Bob

I am in middle Tenn. It is hot now but, we are surviving the heat.
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