No Brainer Trades

Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Look for resistance turned support in a situation like this which also holds historical significance.....always look back further. In this case its 1.0134 - 21 - see what I mean? Probability becomes a lot higher there.

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Quoting finswin56

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USD/JPY is coming back off its recent gains. I think I see the most historicaly significant SR around 105.7-.62 area. This would also be right at 61.8 retracement from this most recent climb up. It seems the market has been volatile for nearly every pair this week, and such a pull back wouldn't be uncharacteristic. However, there's my question. When we're having a week like that is this volatile, do you need to up your standards when looking for these levels?

BTW, if all my questions detract from the heart of this thread, PLEASE let me know, and I'll be more than happy to sit on the sidelines and keep learning

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Quoting Mary Pippins

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I can't speak for Billy Ray, but I myself think your posts are spot on.

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Quoting finswin56

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Thanks! That makes one of us. I still feel like I'm guessing.

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Quote

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I forget the exact terms, but there's four stages to a trader's development:

1. You don't realize you're making lots of mistakes
2. You realize you're making lots of mistakes
3. You don't realize you're making the right calls
4. You realize you're making the right calls

The leap from 3 to 4 happens as you make more and more correct calls/trades and gain confidence in yourself and your ability. So keep it up and you'll get there!

Quoting Marsh

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I dont know if you are referring to the "5" Stages of a developing trader, by Soultrader, but even if you arent, you should check out this article by him....

The 5 Steps to becoming a trader - by Soultrader

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Hey everyone -

I know that most thread starters wouldn't post something like this but I also realize that we have a lot of regular readers here.

Just wanted to tell you I'm going away/wont be back until next Tuesday the 17th.

Adios!

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Quoting thegunslinger

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I forget the exact terms, but there's four stages to a trader's development:

1. You don't realize you're making lots of mistakes
2. You realize you're making lots of mistakes
3. You don't realize you're making the right calls
4. You realize you're making the right calls

The leap from 3 to 4 happens as you make more and more correct calls/trades and gain confidence in yourself and your ability. So keep it up and you'll get there!

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Nice post Ironman you never let us down - HOW LONG WILL THE MOVE LAST is the question I hate the most about trading. Its extremely difficult to tell sometimes.

OBSTACLES are the key work here. Please excuse the metaphor but its like a treasure hunt. You get one clue, and it leads you to the next, which leads you to the next, etc.

There are 3 major obstacles for letting a position run:

1 - Opposing horizontal support and resistance
2 - Diagonal trendlines
3 - News events

You obviously want the first 2 broken and the third one in your favor in order to keep the position going.

Forget the third one lets talk about the first 2. Scenario:

You're in a short trade. You nailed the reversal to the very pip. You're in the money by 20 pips.

Q - How long will the move last?
A - As long as obstacles keep getting broken.

Advice: Take partial profits at each obstacle.

Each obstacle also presents the opportunity to trade countertrend and scalp 20 to 50 pips at a time. Also, because each support level will turn into resistance on the way down, you can trail a stop loss above each of the previous support levels, so if one of them gets broken, you're out of the trade.

We really dont know all the time how long each move will last, but as long as we keep taking profits, we're making money. Tightening stops as we go eliminates the possibility of losing anything as well.

Here's a basic picture to give you an idea on the last few hundred pip move on EUR where we shorted at .1.5840 earlier this week:

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Quoting finswin56

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USD/JPY is coming back off its recent gains. I think I see the most historicaly significant SR around 105.7-.62 area. This would also be right at 61.8 retracement from this most recent climb up. It seems the market has been volatile for nearly every pair this week, and such a pull back wouldn't be uncharacteristic. However, there's my question. When we're having a week like that is this volatile, do you need to up your standards when looking for these levels?

BTW, if all my questions detract from the heart of this thread, PLEASE let me know, and I'll be more than happy to sit on the sidelines and keep learning

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Quoting fatboy1234

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Hi guys,

A newbi question for me here so bear with me.

I thought all charts were supposed to show the same data, how come finswin56 chart of usd/jpy (3 posts above me)shows a high of 107.70 and then a retracemnt, while the same exact chart on my pc shows a high of 108.00 a full 30 pips away???

Thanks again.

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