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  • #1,181
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:23am Jun 12, 2008 9:23am
Hi Zoopy,

Great thread. I do enjoy a lot the waves thing. I think the main question with it is which wave to analize. If you look at eurusd now you will notice a wave collapse to the downside, but you could also change the perspective and look at the same market in a diferent way and see other waves in the same market indicating a move up could be on the way. I have attached two charts showing it.... Do you think those waves are also valid ??? Or should the waving be more straight ???? Feel free to say I'm wrong !!!!

Thanks.

By the way, seems like there are no sellers ate 5400 and no buyers at 5420. What a struggle !!!, lol

Cheers
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''I am too sexy for my pips, too sexy for my pips, too sexy yeahhh...''
  • #1,182
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:28am Jun 12, 2008 9:28am
Looks like there may be some buyers that came in at 1.5400. Right now I'm currently biased to the short side meaning I will sell only (provided price turns around). If we break the orange horizontal line and close above it, that sets me back into buy mode. It would also mean we are making higher highs/lows and it's time to buy on dips again.
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  • #1,183
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:47am Jun 12, 2008 9:47am
Thanks Dudu. See below.
Quoting Dudu 73
Hi Zoopy,

Great thread. I do enjoy a lot the waves thing. I think the main question with it is which wave to analize. If you look at eurusd now you will notice a wave collapse to the downside, but you could also change the perspective and look at the same market in a diferent way and see other waves in the same market indicating a move up could be on the way.
Correct there was a wave collapse. If I was looking at a different perspective and using long term charts then I would still be bullish (on the weekly) but bearish on the daily. With your charts, what you are doing is trying to "clump" all the possible noise you can find to determine the direction that the waves are taking. The question you have to ask yourself now is... is this even necessary? You can see visually that waves are breaking either up/down so there is no need to try and filter out all that noise. You might be caught a few times (I have) but on the whole you'll be right more often than not. Remember this is about probabilities.
Quoting Dudu 73
I have attached two charts showing it.... Do you think those waves are also valid ??? Or should the waving be more straight ???? Feel free to say I'm wrong !!!!
Are those waves valid? Yes they're valid. Would I trade it the way you have it? No, since I analyze my waves differently. Are you wrong? No, just that you have a different way of analyzing them. What you do have to be careful of is zooming in too much because what that does is it "exaggerates" noise.
  • #1,184
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:40am Jun 12, 2008 10:40am
Quoting zoopy
Looks like there may be some buyers that came in at 1.5400. Right now I'm currently biased to the short side meaning I will sell only (provided price turns around). If we break the orange horizontal line and close above it, that sets me back into buy mode. It would also mean we are making higher highs/lows and it's time to buy on dips again.

Ok... is he speaking? We're moving even slower now than we were before LOL. Watch out for the last 15 min of the hour (15 min rule).
  • #1,185
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:52pm Jun 12, 2008 2:52pm
Was just looking at my oil charts and oil has broken a wave to the upside. If eurusd follows, we may see eurusd breaking the current wave to the upside although I'm going to sit tight until I see it happen and confirmed.

What's also quite interesting is the fact that all three indexes have waves collapsing yet gbpchf, gbpjpy and eurjpy hasn't collapsed. Something big is going to happen soon...
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  • #1,186
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:07pm Jun 12, 2008 4:07pm
Managed to catch this short just in time before momentum started picking up. Previous wave collapsed. We almost broke a wave to the upside but didn't happen. Bias for this pair is down.

Look for a possible collapse on the current wave.
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  • #1,187
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:17pm Jun 12, 2008 4:17pm
Looks like momentum on eurusd may be turning around. I'll be keeping an eye on what this pair does relative to the current wave that recently collapsed. I'm still biased to the short side unless we break the previous wave upwards (this will be when the market starts making higher highs/lows).
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  • #1,188
  • Jun 12, 2008 5:55pm Jun 12, 2008 5:55pm
Here is a classic example of why I will not buy when waves collapse. I only buy when we start breaking waves to the upside.
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  • #1,189
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:36pm Jun 12, 2008 6:36pm
Could be a possible wave break on the H4 EU, if it does break it, where would you go long? 5500 maybe because it's a round number.
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  • #1,190
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:56pm Jun 12, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting greywolf238
Could be a possible wave break on the H4 EU, if it does break it, where would you go long? 5500 maybe because it's a round number.
If it breaks it, I have two options.

Aggressive approach
I would enter soon after price closes above the previous wave's peak. At this point it is confirmed that we do have a break. *Sometimes I won't enter if price is too far away.

Conservative approach
Once we get a confirmed break, I will know the direction. At this point there is no rush and it's a matter of waiting for pullbacks and for price to turn around first before going long. These trades tend to be the safest and is definitely more profitable.

As for what price to enter at... if we broke the previous wave to the upside I would have to see where it closes first and what price does relative to the closest round number in the area. To be honest, quite often I don't use round numbers as entries but rather use it to gauge strength in behaviour of a currency.
  • #1,191
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:35pm Jun 12, 2008 7:35pm
Well the EU didn't break it yet on the H4 chart, looks like it's starting the head back down.

Here's a chart of the UJ price is dancing around 108.00 still have a long way to go before the candle is done.
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  • #1,192
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:47pm Jun 12, 2008 7:47pm
Quoting greywolf238
Well the EU didn't break it yet on the H4 chart, looks like it's starting the head back down.

Here's a chart of the UJ price is dancing around 108.00 still have a long way to go before the candle is done.
Yup. I'm still biased to the downside on eurusd until we break a wave up which we have not.

UJ I actually traded and went long but out of that trade now. Nothing really to trade on this pair as of now. I think most of the setups are going to come next week. However... if eurusd does go down I will short it since I'm in "sell mode".
  • #1,193
  • Jun 13, 2008 11:58am Jun 13, 2008 11:58am
Bit of a delay in my posts today. Was busy running around so didn't have the chance. We experienced another wave collapse on euro early this morning. As I said in a previous post, if the market collapsed, I would be shorting again so I did manage to catch that one. Out of it now though since the market started turning up and gathering momentum before 12:00pm NY.

Attached is a chart showing the wave collapse and another chart showing the new wave I'm now dealing with. With the current wave, I will be watching the orange horizontal line as that will swing my bias back to long. For now, I'm only selling. I won't be placing any trades today because of the G8 meeting this weekend. Last meeting created a very big gap on a number of pairs so don't want to take that chance.
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  • #1,194
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:04pm Jun 13, 2008 12:04pm
Ok... gbpchf analysis. This trade I shorted lastnight and was in profit but had to close this morning at a loss because the wave broke to the upside. Think I had around a -50 pip loss on that one. Was half asleep when I closed it, all I saw was the wave broken lol. Anyways... I reversed that trade, went long, managed to make +70 odd but am out now since price started turning back down again. I'll be waiting for pullbacks on this pair before going long.

Bias for this pair is now long.
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  • #1,195
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:13pm Jun 13, 2008 12:13pm
This is more of a follow up to post#1164. Since waves have been breaking up on the usdcad pair, I've been bias to the upside. Buying on all pullbacks and wave breaks. Looks like we're about to break another wave to the upside and if it wasn't for Friday and the G8 meeting, I probably would have gone long again.

Bias for this pair is definitely still up.
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  • #1,196
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:21pm Jun 13, 2008 12:21pm
For euro longs, here's a weekly chart showing a possible wave collapse. If we end the week and close below the horizontal line I have drawn on my chart, we have a confirmed wave collapse. If the market decides to follow through, we will start seeing large waves going down and it won't stop until we break a wave to the upside. As of now, the only thing that would negate this bias is if we closed next week well above 1.5800, breaking the current wave to the upside.
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  • #1,197
  • Jun 13, 2008 2:42pm Jun 13, 2008 2:42pm
Thanks for the heads up on the weekly chart. I've developed my own med-term system and it got me short last night at 1.5400 (still in with SL at breakeven.)

I've been so engrossed in what I've been doing I sort of stopped looking at the weekly chart, so I really appreciate your last post. I like to stay aware of the larger trends.

Keep up the good work,

-Sean
  • #1,198
  • Jun 13, 2008 3:10pm Jun 13, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting seanchicago
Thanks for the heads up on the weekly chart. I've developed my own med-term system and it got me short last night at 1.5400 (still in with SL at breakeven.)

I've been so engrossed in what I've been doing I sort of stopped looking at the weekly chart, so I really appreciate your last post. I like to stay aware of the larger trends.

Keep up the good work,

-Sean
Thanks Sean

Just wanted to give those that follow Jacko's method in particular a heads up. I started noticing a lot of buys and AHs going on when the market was clearly making very aggressive drops down. When you see behaviour like that you have to be careful how you use AH's especially when those moves down have a lot of momentum behind them.

I too haven't been looking at weekly charts or even daily for that matter. I tend to do that more at the end of the week to see what's happening to the wave structures.

Nice eurusd trade btw. I was short too from 1.5400 but have exited that trade when things started turning up. Figured I'd protect myself and if the wave collapsed again I'd just short from that point.
  • #1,199
  • Jun 13, 2008 3:17pm Jun 13, 2008 3:17pm
For those that trade the usdcad, here is a weekly chart showing what the waves are now doing. From what it seems, we have a possible wave break to the upside although not by much. I think if I was trading this long term I'd need another week to make my decision but on the daily I'm definitely biased to the upside and have mentioned it in an earlier post.

Bias for this pair is long based on the weekly chart.
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  • #1,200
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:26pm Jun 13, 2008 4:26pm
Thought this was quite interesting. The Dow Jones has broken a daily wave to the upside. This may be the end of the drop.
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