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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #11,201
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:46am Jun 11, 2008 7:46am
I'm not going to post like the expert on PB's, however from a traders standpoint you had a good thought process. You posted the first chart with the daily PB and your analysis on it. So you spotted the trade on the day chart and then burrowed down into the smaller TF's for your entry. I rarely go below the 1hr, and I don't know that I would recommend your exact entry if it was only the 5 minute price action, however the fib level was a good level to be looking around for a more exact entry. I think you could have spotted the fib level without going down to the 5 minute.

Personally, I placed 2/3 of my lots on that fib level with decently tight stops above the .618 and then reentered with the last 1/3 on the break of the daily PB with the true, but larger, stop of above the actual bar and nice daily resistance. At this point 2/3 of my position is locked in with no risk, and the other 1/3 has a nice strong resistance for my stop.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #11,202
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:58am Jun 11, 2008 7:58am
Quoting y.caesar
Mike and Vensik...I have a question for you two though(or anyone who might feel to know the answer )

As you can see from my second chart, I entered based on the 5min PA. Is that correct? I feel like I should've entered based on at least 1hr, or 4hr PA to front run a daily pinbar set up. My reasoning is that the longer the TF, the more valid the signals are. Maybe I'm just lucky this time that usd/cad just went straight down after that 5min PA signal. Other time, it might just go up some more and form a "more" valid signal based on a higher TF. Should I, next time, wait for a higher time frame signals for a safer entry? or just any TF is fine as long as it forms near confluence?

I hope you guys understand what I mean.
Hey Caesar,
Just to give my view on this, IMO entering on 5M PA is pretty risky.
If you're just starting out with PA, I wouldn't go lower than Daily, maybe 4H TF at the most.
This trade may work out because that Daily pin is pretty good looking. But I don't think the 5M PA holds much weight. Especially compared to Daily PA.

Good luck,
Tom
  • #11,203
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:14am Jun 11, 2008 8:14am
Quoting y.caesar
Hi everyone,

I just read the first 150 pages of the thread and still trying to finish reading all the pages here While doing so, I came accross a pinbar in usd/cad daily.
What's the best way of playing this?
a) set a sell stop 10 pips from the bottom of PB and s/l at the top of pb?
b) wait for a 38 retracement with a stop loss above the 61.8 retracement?

My question is, if I were to go with the "b" option, do i need to wait for a certain PA at the retracement or just place a market order at that retracement blindly?

Please let me know what you guys think. Thanks.

Regards,

y.caesar
As Mike has already mentioned, there is no definite answer. I recommend a) for new traders until they demo it and get good feel for price behavior on a given currency.
Personally I buy/sell initially around second eye or 23-61fib retracement with 2/3 of position (if it pb formed off good s/r area with confluence) and add another 1/3 on the break.
  • #11,204
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:21am Jun 11, 2008 8:21am
Quoting raczekfx
As Mike has already mentioned, there is no definite answer. I recommend a) for new traders until they demo it and get good feel for price behavior on a given currency.
Personally I buy/sell initially around second eye or 23-61fib retracement with 2/3 of position (if it pb formed off good s/r area with confluence) and add another 1/3 on the break.
Hmm... that sounds alot like the plan I developed.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #11,205
  • Edited 4:21pm Jun 11, 2008 4:06pm | Edited 4:21pm
Looks like we have an I4B on the recently closed Euro daily candle. I'm considering playing a long breakout should it happen. I think it could turn into a good move off of the support bounce. Any thoughts?

http://i295.photobucket.com/albums/m...nsidebar-1.gif
Kiss'n all the way to the top!
  • #11,206
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:26pm Jun 11, 2008 8:26pm
Thanks for the lead clauticeo...
This is what I like about this thread. So many people are participating that they post potential set ups

This is the particular set up that I like playing in the news trading (of course, in a much much lower TF )

The 89EMA currently supports the upside move. I think it could go either way, up or down. The down target, though, can find support in no further than the previous pinbar. The upside has more room to go to the recent high.

This set up coincides with the impending news of retail and cpi. I would be very wary about playing this one though. But I'm leaning toward the long side too.

PS: Thanks for the input in regard to front running the pinbar set up. Much much appreciated
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  • #11,207
  • Jun 11, 2008 9:49pm Jun 11, 2008 9:49pm
Hi there
On daily chart, i saw price hovers around ema365 and ema150 which is also the pivot zone area.
Ema60 and price went below ema150 earlier...downtrend is in place.
Possible for price to retest the ema's and fall???

Any opinions?

Thanks!
  • #11,208
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:00pm Jun 11, 2008 11:00pm
Mixed signals on the EUR/AUD there TSK, I think there may be some retracement as you suggested but this is a good area for a turn looking a the week chart. Be cautious on shorts and close them if it gets above this upcoming resistance at 1.6515 area.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #11,209
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:26pm Jun 11, 2008 11:26pm
Hi Vensik

Thanks for sharing.
On weekly chart, the 010608 candle is considered a pin bar?



Quoting Vensik
Mixed signals on the EUR/AUD there TSK, I think there may be some retracement as you suggested but this is a good area for a turn looking a the week chart. Be cautious on shorts and close them if it gets above this upcoming resistance at 1.6515 area.
  • #11,210
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:31pm Jun 11, 2008 11:31pm
look like a pin bar on 1hr chart..
opinions?
  • #11,211
  • Jun 12, 2008 12:26am Jun 12, 2008 12:26am
Hi everyone!

There was nice PIN on USD/CAD, but yesterday movement wasn't so big. Is it over or .... All forecasts (as I understand) is that USD will get stronger...


Any thoughts??
  • #11,212
  • Edited 12:50am Jun 12, 2008 12:48am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting y.caesar
Thanks for the lead clauticeo...
This is what I like about this thread. So many people are participating that they post potential set ups

This is the particular set up that I like playing in the news trading (of course, in a much much lower TF )

The 89EMA currently supports the upside move. I think it could go either way, up or down. The down target, though, can find support in no further than the previous pinbar. The upside has more room to go to the recent high.

This set up coincides with the impending news of retail and cpi. I would be very wary about playing this one though. But I'm leaning toward the long side too.

PS: Thanks for the input in regard to front running the pinbar set up. Much much appreciated
Thanks for the added analysis Caesar! That's good stuff. Price is bouncing yet again off that support line. I'm still keeping my long order open at 1.56. I have very little riding on this (think tiny Oanda lots!), as I'm just trying to get some more experience with these setups. It's late, and I need some sleep- guess we'll see if anything good happens here.
Kiss'n all the way to the top!
  • #11,213
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:02am Jun 12, 2008 1:02am
Quoting initex
Hi everyone!

There was nice PIN on USD/CAD, but yesterday movement wasn't so big. Is it over or .... All forecasts (as I understand) is that USD will get stronger...


Any thoughts??
Exactly my thoughts. That was a nice looking daily pin. However, jump down to a M5 chart and you'll see that there really wasn't any selling pressure the rest of the day after the massive fallout (most likely big news but didn't look for sure). This made me question it somewhat, and I played it extremely conservatively. Took 20 quick pips below the nose, moved other 2 SL's to BE+1 and they were knocked out quick. Not many pips at all on a daily pin, but I didn't let the market steal 'em back so it's all good. In either case, I'll learn from it!

The setup is definitely not over though, so anything is possible.

Just my 2 cents.
Kiss'n all the way to the top!
  • #11,214
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:12am Jun 12, 2008 2:12am
Hi Clauticeo

Thanks for the head up...manage to 25pips from the short breakout..

Quoting Clauticeo
Looks like we have an I4B on the recently closed Euro daily candle. I'm considering playing a long breakout should it happen. I think it could turn into a good move off of the support bounce. Any thoughts?

http://i295.photobucket.com/albums/m...nsidebar-1.gif
  • #11,215
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:38am Jun 12, 2008 2:38am
Quoting Clauticeo
Exactly my thoughts. That was a nice looking daily pin. However, jump down to a M5 chart and you'll see that there really wasn't any selling pressure the rest of the day after the massive fallout (most likely big news but didn't look for sure). This made me question it somewhat, and I played it extremely conservatively. Took 20 quick pips below the nose, moved other 2 SL's to BE+1 and they were knocked out quick. Not many pips at all on a daily pin, but I didn't let the market steal 'em back so it's all good. In either case, I'll learn from it!

The setup is definitely not over though, so anything is possible.

Just my 2 cents.
I still don't think the move down for usd/cad is over yet. I closed this position early yesterday when it broke down the low of the pinbar. Looking at the daily, I'm a bit cautious re-entering short on usd/cad. This time, following Tom's advice , I'm looking to enter at 38 to 50 percent retracement with at least 1hr PA, with a stop a bit above 62% retracement.
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  • #11,216
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:44am Jun 12, 2008 6:44am
Quoting TSK
Hi Clauticeo

Thanks for the head up...manage to 25pips from the short breakout..
Hey no problem. My long breakout prediction didn't materialize, but I'm glad to see somebody netted some pips on it!
Kiss'n all the way to the top!
  • #11,217
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:51am Jun 12, 2008 6:51am
Quoting y.caesar
I still don't think the move down for usd/cad is over yet. I closed this position early yesterday when it broke down the low of the pinbar. Looking at the daily, I'm a bit cautious re-entering short on usd/cad. This time, following Tom's advice , I'm looking to enter at 38 to 50 percent retracement with at least 1hr PA, with a stop a bit above 62% retracement.
Hopefully this works out well for you . Definitely a much safer trade than entering w/o shorter term confirmation and having a large SL.
Kiss'n all the way to the top!
  • #11,218
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:14pm Jun 12, 2008 1:14pm
Hey, Potentially a weekly pin on the loony. thoughts?
  • #11,219
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:44pm Jun 12, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting Liquid11
Hey, Potentially a weekly pin on the loony. thoughts?
That's still a pretty small whick comparing it to the candles leading up to it. I think a better signal is coming from the day chart. Todays candle may confirm the PB from 2 days ago.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #11,220
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:04pm Jun 12, 2008 2:04pm
Quote
I think a better signal is coming from the day chart. Todays candle may confirm the PB from 2 days ago.
yep, we've got a nice H4 pb, and today just might close as another daily pb.

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