Hi guys, I trade ZAR quite often and been monitoring it closely. I realised since the xenophobic attacks hit front pages around the world in May, there has been an odd increase in volitility around 20hrs00 in the evenings EU time. it never happened before so there's deffinately some new players in there.
As for long term, I see USDZAR as a big short. In the short term though with SA having interest rates as its only weapon to stop the Rand from falling, it keeps raising them. there is a fib retracement around R9.00 and if it breaches that which i think it will, we looking at R12 and up. I did some analysis of it afew weeks back and looking at 10 years from now, we could see R30 a USD.
The history of it was when Zuma was reinstated, you can actually see the date it was done if you go back in the ZAR and match it with the SA timeframe of politics. There was a distinct drop and change of sentiment in the currency then.
As for Zuma, yes he has surrounded himself with advises and has been "open" to listening to various minority groups in SA but I think it's a cover. You looking at a politician near the election date, every politician will pull these moves. As for confidence in leadership, I think you just have to see a video clip of when Zuma went to try calm tensions when the attacks started in the townships, he started getting verbally attacked by the people there and he clearly had no leg to stand on, he couldn't even come up with a "leaders sentance" to display his potential in dealing with situations off the cuff and certainly sealed it when he said "talks can only start when there is peace and no more attacks"... sorry but talks must happen in order to stop attacks, you don't have them after as you not sure if there will be an end to them. Clearly a wrong footing.
Besides Zuma (who's court case has been moved to after he could already be voted president meaning more political risk later for the country and possible violence) there is a second person that is being backed if Zuma is ever out of the race. I can't remember his name right now (if you really want to know email me and I'll dig it up), he has a long history of being with the trade unions (basically like the mafia, I know as I have knowledge of how they control the companies that "enter their area"), a former Youth League member (a group well known for causing problems that usually turn violent and with little sound knowledge of how economies work) and a former MK ANC soldier.
To me... Zuma sounds like childs play compared to this guy.
Overall from what I've read and seen. Investment banks expect R10 a USD within the next few months. My analysis matches that but as I mentioned, there's possibility for an even further upside to that value.
I think people haven't counted the effects that these power cuts have caused for the economy into the currency, along with growing ethnic tensions, a power struggle at the top in the ANC and with crime being so high which the xenophobic attacks helped to put a spot light on (the deaths during the two weeks of xenophobic attacks only made up one days worth of murders the country has PER day anyway (over 60 per day), so a small loss compared to what doesn't get seen on front pages) will put more stress on the economy. Also with the UN Sports department having second thoughts on FIFA holding the world cup here even though FIFA has said they want it to still be here. Gold investment is also another factor as gold is deeper and more costly to mine than rather just going to China where it's shallower in the ground. Gold production is also falling, the latest a few days ago was 17% compared to April, not good.
Skills shortage is also an issue and skilled citizens are leaving in droves per week. The governmental agency SETA that is surposed to be developing and sponsoring skills in the country has been sitting on their hands for years with billions in the state bank that they haven't used besides for themselves.
With those factors, corruption and much more, ZAR doesn't look set for getting much stronger.
On the 4HR chart there are some great trades either way though, long and short (1000+/- pips) and there are brokers who have 150 pip spread and even down to 50 pip spread on Level 2 data.
Just a note though... I am in South Africa and love the country, however I look at economics and factors that are statistical and fundamentally on the ground along with contacts that feed me information on situations. I don't mean to sound biased on the fall of the SA Rand but it is just that way currently unless a miracle happens and fixes up all that has been done and wipes clean everyones sentiment on SA and pulls back all the skilled people, drops crime levels and corruption, returns the lost turnover of companies and puts in a goverment which can run the country well (there currently isnt any party in my view of being turn-around-candidates to run the country and make it a star). Mandela just appeared at a time that sanctions were being lifted and international corporates wanted in, there's no "good or bad" time, it's just when things fall in that way.
Have a great day all!
As for long term, I see USDZAR as a big short. In the short term though with SA having interest rates as its only weapon to stop the Rand from falling, it keeps raising them. there is a fib retracement around R9.00 and if it breaches that which i think it will, we looking at R12 and up. I did some analysis of it afew weeks back and looking at 10 years from now, we could see R30 a USD.
The history of it was when Zuma was reinstated, you can actually see the date it was done if you go back in the ZAR and match it with the SA timeframe of politics. There was a distinct drop and change of sentiment in the currency then.
As for Zuma, yes he has surrounded himself with advises and has been "open" to listening to various minority groups in SA but I think it's a cover. You looking at a politician near the election date, every politician will pull these moves. As for confidence in leadership, I think you just have to see a video clip of when Zuma went to try calm tensions when the attacks started in the townships, he started getting verbally attacked by the people there and he clearly had no leg to stand on, he couldn't even come up with a "leaders sentance" to display his potential in dealing with situations off the cuff and certainly sealed it when he said "talks can only start when there is peace and no more attacks"... sorry but talks must happen in order to stop attacks, you don't have them after as you not sure if there will be an end to them. Clearly a wrong footing.
Besides Zuma (who's court case has been moved to after he could already be voted president meaning more political risk later for the country and possible violence) there is a second person that is being backed if Zuma is ever out of the race. I can't remember his name right now (if you really want to know email me and I'll dig it up), he has a long history of being with the trade unions (basically like the mafia, I know as I have knowledge of how they control the companies that "enter their area"), a former Youth League member (a group well known for causing problems that usually turn violent and with little sound knowledge of how economies work) and a former MK ANC soldier.
To me... Zuma sounds like childs play compared to this guy.
Overall from what I've read and seen. Investment banks expect R10 a USD within the next few months. My analysis matches that but as I mentioned, there's possibility for an even further upside to that value.
I think people haven't counted the effects that these power cuts have caused for the economy into the currency, along with growing ethnic tensions, a power struggle at the top in the ANC and with crime being so high which the xenophobic attacks helped to put a spot light on (the deaths during the two weeks of xenophobic attacks only made up one days worth of murders the country has PER day anyway (over 60 per day), so a small loss compared to what doesn't get seen on front pages) will put more stress on the economy. Also with the UN Sports department having second thoughts on FIFA holding the world cup here even though FIFA has said they want it to still be here. Gold investment is also another factor as gold is deeper and more costly to mine than rather just going to China where it's shallower in the ground. Gold production is also falling, the latest a few days ago was 17% compared to April, not good.
Skills shortage is also an issue and skilled citizens are leaving in droves per week. The governmental agency SETA that is surposed to be developing and sponsoring skills in the country has been sitting on their hands for years with billions in the state bank that they haven't used besides for themselves.
With those factors, corruption and much more, ZAR doesn't look set for getting much stronger.
On the 4HR chart there are some great trades either way though, long and short (1000+/- pips) and there are brokers who have 150 pip spread and even down to 50 pip spread on Level 2 data.
Just a note though... I am in South Africa and love the country, however I look at economics and factors that are statistical and fundamentally on the ground along with contacts that feed me information on situations. I don't mean to sound biased on the fall of the SA Rand but it is just that way currently unless a miracle happens and fixes up all that has been done and wipes clean everyones sentiment on SA and pulls back all the skilled people, drops crime levels and corruption, returns the lost turnover of companies and puts in a goverment which can run the country well (there currently isnt any party in my view of being turn-around-candidates to run the country and make it a star). Mandela just appeared at a time that sanctions were being lifted and international corporates wanted in, there's no "good or bad" time, it's just when things fall in that way.
Have a great day all!
