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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,441
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:22am Jun 11, 2008 10:22am
Quoting ejiexe
Since u requested for comments on the chart, I will pass on mine.

1. There is no signal on your chart when u entered the trade according to 4HR MACD system.

2. It is a gamble trade and nothing more.

Though the trade worked our for you but it is not according to the rule. You should have waited for the price to close below 21 with cross of zero on MACD which it has done right now. Wait for retracement back to 21 forming round bottom on MACD as well and a TC to go down to 89. That is the rhythm of the market.
Totally agree with you!
Price could have also set up for a TC off the 21, because it didn't even close
below 21.
Luck doesn't come all the time. It's 99% effort and 1% luck. Especially in forex. Always be prepared and plan the trade and trade the plan.
And most importantly, stick with the system!!!
Next time good plan!
Not good luck.
Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,442
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:28am Jun 11, 2008 10:28am
Quoting Palmer
Both the EURJPY and GBPUSD are at the 21 for potential TC's...watching.

Both these pairs seem to be ranging at the moment with both in a traingle bouncing of the the two converging trend lines. On the daily the EU seems to be an uptrend. I am wondering whether any shorting on this pair would be considered high risk. Although i do agree there is alot of room to both the bottom trendlines and EU seems to forming a good tail.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,443
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:29am Jun 11, 2008 10:29am
The tail on the EU just dissapeared!!
  • #15,444
  • Edited 10:58am Jun 11, 2008 10:45am | Edited 10:58am
Now it's a good time to anticipate and plan the possible trade
to 89sma. Price now closed below 21. So I'm expecting it to
go back to 21 or above and even above 8ema and when it
comes down with a tc or with a nice signal candle (tail) than
I'm in to the profit target to 89sma. But until then, I'll be patient and
let the market play out.
This is how I would do this according to Phillip's strategy.
Although I don't trade this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 31 KB
Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,445
  • Edited 11:56am Jun 11, 2008 11:21am | Edited 11:56am

My 2nd trade for June2008 on the MACD system. The longest wait I had that I can remember.



12:00 Candle had a tail formed from bottom TL. The motion as well as looks was

indicating a high probability trade. Nice RB was forming on the price indicating long direction and then that move down to support TL taking out stops and turnaround forming that tail.


Entered at 1.9556

SL 1.9517

TP 1.9600
Due to the tail coming from TL support the odds is very high that it will go up so I will





take profit with 50% at 1.9600 and give remainder a chance should it wants to go to 200sma. Price has been zig zag over the 200sma lately so I expect a test of the 200sma.


Edit 2

Closed 50% at 1.9600 and set remainder on 1.9570 stoploss

Edit 3
Remainder closed at 1.9656
Total gain (44+100)/2 = 77

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd.GIF Size: 40 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 11 June2008.zip   808 KB | 1,057 downloads
  • #15,446
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:39am Jun 11, 2008 11:39am
Quoting Phillip Nel

My first trade for June2008 on the MACD system. The longest wait I had that I can remember.




12:00 Candle had a tail formed from bottom TL. The motion as well as looks was

indicating a high probability trade. Nice RB was forming on the price indicating long direction and then that move down to support TL taking out stops and turnaround forming that tail.

Entered at 1.9556
SL 1.9517
TP 1.9600
Due to the tail coming from TL support the odds is very high that it will go up so I will



take profit with 50% at 1.9600 and give remainder a chance should it wants to go to 200sma. Price has been zig zag over the 200sma lately so I expect a test of the 200sma.

Edit 2
Closed 50% at 1.9600 and set remainder on 1.9570 stoploss
Edit 3
Remainder closed at 1.9656
Total gain (44+100)/2 = 77




Hi Phillip

Great system man. Quick question regarding the last trade. You enetered the trade on the second green bar on the MACD rather than the first. Is it the tail that convinced you re the most probable direction of the trade (i.e upwards).

Anoop

  • #15,447
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:57am Jun 11, 2008 11:57am
Quoting Snoop Dogg
Hi Phillip

Great system man. Quick question regarding the last trade. You enetered the trade on the second green bar on the MACD rather than the first. Is it the tail that convinced you re the most probable direction of the trade (i.e upwards).

Anoop

[/left]
Yes. I dont trade counter move(trend) trades but that tail from support will allways be a 9/10 correct situation.
  • #15,448
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:29pm Jun 11, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting Phillip Nel

My 2nd trade for June2008 on the MACD system. The longest wait I had that I can remember.



I took the same trade, and closed both lots on the 21. That was my first trade for the month .
  • #15,449
  • Edited 1:14pm Jun 11, 2008 12:58pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting ira
I took the same trade, and closed both lots on the 21. That was my first trade for the month .
Nicely done Ira and Phillip...!!!
I am trying ot open the zip file for daily wrap up but i get a message that it is corrupted. Phillip could u post it agian wheneve you get a chance, Much appreciated. thanks.

Also wanted to thank You Phillip for you constant encouragement and persistant teaching, for the first time in 1 year that i have started learning forex and this strategy ,last week my account was up 0.5%...( trades taken on 4 hour and 5 minute sytems combined starting 2nd of june) sounds small but it could be the first drop of rain and many rain drops to follow,.
I know my contributions to this valuable thread is minimum to none these days and it may look like i am being selfish but i will be back as soon as i able to and stop having too many self doubts( not doubt in this strategy but in myself as a trader). take care.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #15,450
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:05pm Jun 11, 2008 1:05pm
Took the TC on the EURJPY off the 4hr 21. I narrowed this down a little to the 30min chart. The 4hr was finding support again at the 21 and the tails were hitting the same area as well. The 30min formed a doji = indecision, then the bull candle so that was the entry. I usually only watch the 1hr for early entries but when price moves fast like this, the shorter timeframes can give up some more clues to price action. Took 20 on the first and floating 50 right now on the second. Price is trying to break through a pivot line right now, will close it out on weakness there....
Attached Images
  • #15,451
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:54pm Jun 11, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting BIL2205
Nicely done Ira and Phillip...!!!
I am trying ot open the zip file for daily wrap up but i get a message that it is corrupted. Phillip could u post it agian wheneve you get a chance, Much appreciated. thanks.

Also wanted to thank You Phillip for you constant encouragement and persistant teaching, for the first time in 1 year that i have started learning forex and this strategy ,last week my account was up 0.5%...( trades taken on 4 hour and 5 minute sytems combined starting 2nd of june) sounds small but it could be the first drop of rain and many rain drops to follow,.
I know my contributions to this valuable thread is minimum to none these days and it may look like i am being selfish but i will be back as soon as i able to and stop having too many self doubts( not doubt in this strategy but in myself as a trader). take care.
Nadia.
Nadia, --I opened the zip earlier, and it opened the first time. I think it's just one of those things. I tried to download over and over on the previous zip, and I finally got it to download and open. Way to go on your trading! I certainly know what you mean about confidence building! --Tony
  • #15,452
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:15pm Jun 11, 2008 2:15pm
In case you (Phillip, Palmer,..) might wonder who I am and
why I don't thank for this amzing one of a kind system,
I'm actually kylekim. I just changed my username.
But anyways, there is never enough to say thank you to
all of you first of all Phillip who made it possible for people
like me to learn everyday (that's why I'm able to start to write
posts what I couldn't have done earlier, because lack of knowledge, confidence)
and of course Palmer you are a great guy!! I always thank you for the
great posts you write and mostly for the super cool website (www.fxtradeblog.com) you created and maintain.
And all other valuable members (Ira, Saka, Old Dog, Bil, Ryan, Bag Lady(where are you I miss your posts so much) ryan I miss yours too) and many
others, because of you trading forex got easier and happier!!
Of course there is no such thing as easy in forex and I still have a long way to go, but with you guys I'm convinced
that I'm on the right track!

Song
Diligence is the mother of good fortune!
  • #15,453
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:18pm Jun 11, 2008 2:18pm
Thanks for the kind words Song Kim, that made my day.
  • #15,454
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:17pm Jun 11, 2008 11:17pm
maybe we get signal TC for EU 4:00 (gmt+7),but we have support TL so maybe wait for breakout then wait till pull back to it with 1 hour TF,just attention for not to take TC IF we get support TL.






"Together More Better Than Alone "
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  • #15,455
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:40pm Jun 11, 2008 11:40pm
The Euro is on the 89 MA of the Daily too.
  • #15,456
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:26am Jun 12, 2008 1:26am
I'm in on the usd/jpy from the TC earlier...nice bull candle; move off 21 and broken TL, and a morning star type formation.
Entry = 107.22
SL = 106.79
TP1 = 25pips, TP2 = 50pips...set stop loss to -25 after first take profit...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,457
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:43am Jun 12, 2008 1:43am
i think eu is preparing to a break of 1.6 level.it behaves just like when it breaked 1.5 level before ,and now it backes to the very strong area (the circle on the picture),im really ready to see some bullish signals in that area even in H1. i beleive if it bounce again from that area it can even break 1.6
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,458
  • Jun 12, 2008 3:49am Jun 12, 2008 3:49am
I took E/U short at the close of 8:00 candle. I don't think it was high probability trade, but I liked that it went down off the 200 (there were tails through 200) in big bearish candle. Then there was a tail touching 8, and candle closed below intermediate support line. It also was trade with the trend. I was a bit conserned that the signal was old, but on my other platform it was a nice BOZ. I like BOZ signals as they usually work very well. First lot +28, second closed on TL +54.
Attached Image
  • #15,459
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:05am Jun 12, 2008 4:05am
Quoting Phillip Nel


Due to the tail coming from TL support the odds is very high that it will go up so I will


Hi, my teacher, great trade!

I just got a feeling that choosing the opporutnity and set sl is easy for me. What I feel that can enhance my capabilities is setting tp, what you do give me a good model. Hope you can write more analysis on how to set tp.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,460
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:14am Jun 12, 2008 4:14am
Here is the written copy from Phillips MP3, which can be found on post 15445.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily wrapup 11 June 2008.doc   25 KB | 571 downloads
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