No Brainer Trades

Quoting Zelenin

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Hello everyone! Billy Ray thank you for your effort and tutoring. This is really really great.

I probably missed the info about GBPUSD and am risking to post my levels for it:
minor support at 1.9508-14 and
a greater one at 1.9453-67

What do you think, guys and girls?

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Long EUR/USD 1.5484 area

No brainer....BUT the level has been used and abused for some time now. Heads up.

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Quoting finswin56

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Would this 108.03 area be a no brainer short?

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Quoting SABTrader

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I just found this thread and just want to say "i like it."
One thing i've learnt is you have to decide on a time frame before you start any analysis or trading. I totally agree that fundamentals have very little use for trading but they are the primary driving force moving prices.

I like to begin my analysis by looking at a few different charts
eg 100 days, 30d, 10d, 4d, 1 d - each with about 100 bars on them
first i draw 2 trend lines which include all prices
then i do the same with 2 horizontal lines for
the above will show me all the major S/R lines
if an sr has been broken it is far less valid but there are exceptions - false breakouts are far more common during low volume times and with the minor crosses.
pretty hard to go wrong trading a eur/usd breakout during US session

then i look for channels on the rhs of chart and draw 2 lines around them
the thinner the channel the better it is to trade as stops can be tighter.
steve

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Quoting kenken

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Long live Billy Ray Valentine!

This is by far the best method I have seen, and for many reasons. I have been trading forex for more than two years, and almost always struggling. This is GOLD. After I have seen how BRV caught bottom and top on eur/usd almost to the pip, I thought this man is just a magician.

BRV, any thoughts on these two levels on USD/JPY?

Sell U/J 107.80-107.89
Sell U/J 108.21-108.36

Thanks for thread.

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Quoting Dopey

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Hi Billy,

I have a simple question and excuse me if I missed it somewhere in this thread. When drawing S/R lines, do you ever use a close chart? Or do you just use tops and bottoms of bars/candles? I've looked at a few of your posted charts and I'm a bit confused.

Thanks.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Hi Dopey - tops and bottoms; not too sure what you mean by close chart?

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Anyone please post some trades! Lets see the goods!

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Quoting inforthepips

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Good Morning.. B Ray!

How about a possible sell on the NZD/USD at 7613. Base this on " Stabbing Bar" downward on June 5, 8:00 ( 1H Chart) on currency's last move down now becoming resistance point as pair is edging up towards that mark. Does this set up concur with your earlier thread on these type of " Stabbing Bar" setups?

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Quoting Dopey

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Thanks. A line close chart is what I was referring to.

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Quoting finswin56

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What do you think about recent s/r levels that price took a major bounce off of, like this USD/CAD level?

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Quoting Iron-man

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When do I get out of a trade? Now there’s a question that haunts us all. It is a situation further exasperated by the appearance of the dynamic duo of trading. It’s those mild mannered emotions, Fear and Greed. Fear gets us out too early and Greed keeps up in too long.

There is that gripping, icy fear that this trade is just another wrong call in a list of losers. Let me take my 4 pips and run and then I swear my broker must have a web cam somewhere in my home office because the second I close the trade it goes on a 100 pip tear that would have been my trade of the week.

Conversely, there is Greed, that dashing swordsman of the FX battlefield that will never back down from the likes of any cowardly retracement. (That is until your +40 becomes
-30)

Perhaps the answer is in an FX bootcamp. What if for 30 days every new trader had to do the exact same thing. OK for 30 days this is what we are going to do. We are going to sell the EURUSD at the beginning of the last 30 minutes of the European session and we are going to square that position at the European close 30 minutes later. OK done.

What did we just do. We created parameters for our trading. Rules. We don’t need indicators because we know exactly when we are going to enter our trade. We don’t need to worry about Stop loss or Limits because we have defined that as well.

Now 30 days later, what happened? Without the benefit of a crystal ball I would say that some of those trades won and some of them lost. Some of them that were winners would have become losers if you had not had a predetermined time to get out and perhaps some of your losers may have become winners if you could have just been allowed to bend the rules a bit and held them just a little longer. Also, you will have noticed certain characteristics about price behavior surrounding this time.

Now I don’t advocate the aforementioned example as a valid trading style. Nor do I suggest that we add a dozen indicators to filter out the false signals until we have a chart so confusing that we would end up in therapy if we tried to explain to anyone how it worked. But let’s examine some fundamental truths shall we.

We have various S&R levels to enter on and perhaps rather than wonder will it bounce we should take the trade (just like a set time) And just like in our bootcamp some will be winners and some will be losers but as we continually experience the market we develop a feel for where price is going. One of the things I have learned about this trading style is that many times you are afforded the opportunity to exit losers at or near breakeven. Just like trading the same time everyday would reveal price action to you trading the same style does that as well.

OK what have we learned so far? I get into the habit of drawing S&R lines. I enter when price nears one and I watch to see what happens. Price doesn’t really go anywhere and it pivots around and finds support where I was hoping for a bounce off resistance. So I do what? Anyone? Anyone? I ……………exit. That’s right. No fear, no greed. Just rules.

So I take another one and this time I’m up +30 in no time. So when do I exit?

We are back to where we started and at the risk of sounding like circle talk (you must master fear or fear will become your master) the answer to when do we exit lies in the reason why we took the trade in the first place.

Well why did we?

I just wanted to see how high my blood pressure could get without passing out before I closed the trade. What a rush!

My friends said I wouldn’t last 30 days trading forex and today is day 31.

If I didn’t take this trade I would have to do yardwork and I hate that!

Or maybe, just maybe you took that trade to make some money so you could pay your bills like any other person out there working for a living. Now any other job out there will not do the one thing that forex can do to you. If you have a bad day at work anywhere else you maybe don’t make as much money or as in commissioned sales maybe you don’t make any but no person will take money from you, forex will (Fear)

Conversely, no other job out there will do the one thing that forex can do to you. If you have a good day at work, you get a little overtime, you make an extra sale, you do well within the boundaries that someone else set for you. You cannot exceed those limits. Forex can. (Greed)

Boris Schlossberg is a professional trader (though aspiring FX guru might be more appropriate) once said something I do agree with. “Never let a winner turn into a loser!”


What’s that you say? “Never let a winner turn into a loser!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

So we have rules to trade by, not the plan of the dynamic duo, but real-time tested rules.

I will enter when price touches a S/R level. If price does not quickly move in my favor (5 minutes or so) then I will watch for an opportunity to close out as close to breakeven as possible.

If price moves in my favor I will a) always take profit at +30 or + 20 or +10. Make it a level that works on the pair you trade that will give you consistent profits. What that does is allow you to make some money while you refine your skills to be more consistent. Just remember pips are money! Real honest to GOD money! Money that you can spend, money that you can save, money that you can retire on. If you can net 10 or 20 or 30+ pips consistently everyday trading that is way more exciting than that-I-got-lucky-trade and made 3K in a day! Because the problem with that one trade is you will give EVERY penny of that money back trying to duplicate that success. Why? Because it wasn’t based on rules.

As far as refining exit points we have already talked about trailing your trade on a 5M chart. We have talked about targeting the next S/R level. But do so with the underlying philosophy that you WILL NOT let a winner turn into a loser. It’s fine to target the next level but when price stalls 20 pips away for crying out loud, take the money. Don’t watch your +40 turn into -20. If you do that the next thing you need to do is take a walk down the street and stop the first person you meet and say, “Please, slap me real hard!” Usually by the 3rd person, you will find somebody willing to accommodate you. At least that has been my experience.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Nice post Ironman you never let us down - HOW LONG WILL THE MOVE LAST is the question I hate the most about trading. Its extremely difficult to tell sometimes.

OBSTACLES are the key work here. Please excuse the metaphor but its like a treasure hunt. You get one clue, and it leads you to the next, which leads you to the next, etc.

There are 3 major obstacles for letting a position run:

1 - Opposing horizontal support and resistance
2 - Diagonal trendlines
3 - News events

You obviously want the first 2 broken and the third one in your favor in order to keep the position going.

Forget the third one lets talk about the first 2. Scenario:

You're in a short trade. You nailed the reversal to the very pip. You're in the money by 20 pips.

Q - How long will the move last?
A - As long as obstacles keep getting broken.

Advice: Take partial profits at each obstacle.

Each obstacle also presents the opportunity to trade countertrend and scalp 20 to 50 pips at a time. Also, because each support level will turn into resistance on the way down, you can trail a stop loss above each of the previous support levels, so if one of them gets broken, you're out of the trade.

We really dont know all the time how long each move will last, but as long as we keep taking profits, we're making money. Tightening stops as we go eliminates the possibility of losing anything as well.

Here's a basic picture to give you an idea on the last few hundred pip move on EUR where we shorted at .1.5840 earlier this week:

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Quoting FxChi

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Some great posts in here. Question - I notice you're showing past res. turned sup. Shouldn't one of the obstacles also be the 1.5775 area on that chart where that area was support previously or are we only concerned with past res turned sup and if we were long we'd only be concerned with sup turned res.?

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