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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #9,101
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:41pm Jun 9, 2008 7:41pm
8:15pm USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifFed Chairman Bernanke Speaks


Most likely the cause of the spike.
  • #9,102
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:43pm Jun 9, 2008 7:43pm
Quoting magnumfreak
8:15pm USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifFed Chairman Bernanke Speaks


Most likely the cause of the spike.
aha
I didnt check the calendar lately

Thanks
  • #9,103
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:25pm Jun 9, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting cesarnc
YUP...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Monday declined to rule out intervening in currency markets to stabilize the dollar, but said strong long-term U.S. economic fundamentals would "shine through" in the dollar's value.

"I would never take intervention off the table or any policy tool off the table." Paulson said in an interview on CNBC. "I just can't speculate about what we will or won't do."

Yeah! Just do your job Paulson, leave the speculation with us pros here
so what exactly are these strong long term economic fundamentals he is referring too?
  • #9,104
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:48pm Jun 9, 2008 8:48pm
waiting for the euro to pullback to1.5585 to scalp a long should be good for 30 pips
  • #9,105
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:48pm Jun 9, 2008 10:48pm
if we can get back to 1.5585 might be a good place to scalp a long i am however expecting a further pullback to 1.5500 or so after this expected move up
  • #9,106
  • Jun 10, 2008 12:42am Jun 10, 2008 12:42am
well i,m off to bed,
  • #9,107
  • Jun 10, 2008 1:23am Jun 10, 2008 1:23am
I think it is time - buy Eur/Usd @ 1.5582 , buy AUD/USD 0.9490. Let's see what happens
  • #9,108
  • Jun 10, 2008 2:48am Jun 10, 2008 2:48am
Quoting Pirin
I think it is time - buy Eur/Usd @ 1.5582 , buy AUD/USD 0.9490. Let's see what happens
You guys are getting pretty good at the bottom picking business. Congrats! But all the trades in the world begin with "let's see what happens" and end with "how the fuck did that happen". Don't buy in the middle of a bear attack. Wait for things to clear up. You will still get a good bite of the profits if you are right, and if you are wrong then at least you have some price action to point at and blame. Just a small bit of advice from somebody who has picked (and grimaced at the smell of) many bottoms.

Good luck!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #9,109
  • Jun 10, 2008 4:28am Jun 10, 2008 4:28am
Quoting Plutonite
You guys are getting pretty good at the bottom picking business. Congrats! But all the trades in the world begin with "let's see what happens" and end with "how the fuck did that happen". Don't buy in the middle of a bear attack. Wait for things to clear up. You will still get a good bite of the profits if you are right, and if you are wrong then at least you have some price action to point at and blame. Just a small bit of advice from somebody who has picked (and grimaced at the smell of) many bottoms.

Good luck!
Thanks, good luck to you too. Now do you intend to say something useful and stop with the teachings master Yoda ?
  • #9,110
  • Jun 10, 2008 5:06am Jun 10, 2008 5:06am
Bernanke was all about inflation yesterday. Add to Paulson "intervention on dollar not off the table" and we had this move on euro.

I didn't see this coming and didn't ride this move either...

Euro already put 350 pips down in 1.5 days... Too much... And there is no clear setup going on to risk something...

I'm lost now..

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will ``strongly resist'' any surge in inflation expectations, delivering his clearest message yet the central bank is done lowering interest rates.

What is this "S Bernanke"?
  • #9,111
  • Jun 10, 2008 5:25am Jun 10, 2008 5:25am
Quoting Pirin
Thanks, good luck to you too. Now do you intend to say something useful and stop with the teachings master Yoda ?
Nope.

Look, I spent hours posting live calls all over this part of the web, so much thinking and "analysis", and what use was that for anyone other than myself? Much more important is to say something useful in general rather than useful just now. And there is of course the option of just hanging around not saying anything useful at all (which is what we usually do), but never mind.

Anyway, yoda wins. Look at our setup. You called a buy at 1.5582 for no reason other than it looked a little oversold, no? And I agree it "looked" oversold, although Euro has very wierd and "stubborn" PA sometimes. And now [trumpets] it shot down again. Yoda rests his case.

Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #9,112
  • Jun 10, 2008 5:27am Jun 10, 2008 5:27am
Alright, screw it, buy GBPCHF
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #9,113
  • Jun 10, 2008 5:41am Jun 10, 2008 5:41am
1.5585 was THE major support for the EUR/USD, knowing that unemployment in the USA is growing and it is expected that the ECB raises the interest rate it seemed like the perfect turn-over level. I do not trust the FED, march 2007 the FED has clearly declared that there aren't going to be any complications with the sub-prime credits, well guess what, they lied. People still trust them, but as soon as the negative GDP comes out the rates are heading to 1 % again. The recession in 2001 was far more unoffending as this one is, but the rates were put on 1 % hold for a whole year. What we see now is speculations over speeches of Pinocchio's colleges. Which reminds me ... wasn't this the same government that was 100 % sure that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq ? The ECB has by far more transparent policy. We'll "see what happens" until the end of the week.

(AUD/USD is in +, only EUR/USD is still in minus)
  • #9,114
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:14am Jun 10, 2008 6:14am
Quoting cesarnc
Bernanke was all about inflation yesterday. Add to Paulson "intervention on dollar not off the table" and we had this move on euro.

I didn't see this coming and didn't ride this move either...

Euro already put 350 pips down in 1.5 days... Too much... And there is no clear setup going on to risk something...

I'm lost now..

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will ``strongly resist'' any surge in inflation expectations, delivering his clearest message yet the central bank is done lowering interest rates.

What is this "S Bernanke"?
YOU?????? I'm totally confused at the moment, so I will sit on the sidelines.

Took a hit yesterday with that Euro. Even Trichet couldn't stop the freefall.

Heading to the beach to KICK IT!!!!!!

Will check back on Friday.

HOLLA
  • #9,115
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:43am Jun 10, 2008 7:43am
well i,m confused it looked to be a perfect set up. priced moved up 30 pips then dropped another 100 + pips then bounced off 1,5500 completely technical trade
  • #9,116
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:54am Jun 10, 2008 7:54am
Quoting 59fender
well i,m confused it looked to be a perfect set up. priced moved up 30 pips then dropped another 100 + pips then bounced off 1,5500 completely technical trade
Im curious, what made you think it would drop to 5500 and bounce from there, 5600 seems like a much more obvious bounce point...nice call have to say so where the hell are we headed now??? Im still watching usdchf, we broke my trendline and are headed back for a test, I guess if we break down below 1.03 again I will think about buying eur again....
Never say never.
  • #9,117
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:55am Jun 10, 2008 7:55am
Quoting 59fender
well i,m confused it looked to be a perfect set up. priced moved up 30 pips then dropped another 100 + pips then bounced off 1,5500 completely technical trade
Higher highs, higher lows => up
  • #9,118
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:57am Jun 10, 2008 7:57am
if we can stay above 1.5500 then a move up to 1.5575 is likely,if we fail to maintain above 1.5500 by 25 pips or so then we could see a move lower towards 1.4425 ill scale out half here and just watch
  • #9,119
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:02am Jun 10, 2008 8:02am
Quoting razldazl
Im curious, what made you think it would drop to 5500 and bounce from there, 5600 seems like a much more obvious bounce point...nice call have to say so where the hell are we headed now??? Im still watching usdchf, we broke my trendline and are headed back for a test, I guess if we break down below 1.03 again I will think about buying eur again....
there is a very good book you can get online. that and lots of screen time lots and lots of that. i almost never trade the euro but that was my favorite set up,i just could not resist
  • #9,120
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:12am Jun 10, 2008 8:12am
...forget I asked...was just vague curiosity
Never say never.
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