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  • #1,121
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:24am Jun 9, 2008 10:24am
We had a wave collapse last week on the gbpchf. Price is currently pulling back, so if it starts turning around it would be a great opportunity to short. I'll be keeping an eye on this one. Might be another 8 hours or so before we actually see any signs.
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  • #1,122
  • Jun 9, 2008 11:18am Jun 9, 2008 11:18am
Quoting zoopy
Bernanke is working his magic again. 12 of 15 or 80.0%
Didn't realize Bernanke was speaking today. Tally now stands at 12 of 16. I believe he's speaking again on Thursday so that's something to be mindful of.
  • #1,123
  • Jun 9, 2008 11:23am Jun 9, 2008 11:23am
Keeping an eye on this pair. We're currently hovering around a round number and if we slide through 2.0200 and pick up momentum quickly, I'm going to start selling. Right now I'm hoping it goes higher because I prefer it when price is closer to the previous wave's peak. Going to wait another 4 hours to see what the chart looks like on this pair.
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  • #1,124
  • Jun 9, 2008 11:43am Jun 9, 2008 11:43am
Zoopy,

So with audusd you would wait for price to move back up, shown by yellow line before then starting to short when it moves down again.....is that right?

Yamin
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Yamin On Demo until I am sure!!!!
  • #1,125
  • Jun 9, 2008 11:46am Jun 9, 2008 11:46am
Quoting yamin151
Zoopy,

So with audusd you would wait for price to move back up, shown by yellow line before then starting to short when it moves down again.....is that right?

Yamin
Yes. Since we already know the wave has collapsed, we have a high probability bias that the pair is going to go lower. Now it's all a matter of waiting for it to go up first then start dropping. When it starts dropping and picks up speed, we short. That's it.
  • #1,126
  • Jun 9, 2008 11:48am Jun 9, 2008 11:48am
Quoting zoopy
Keeping an eye on this pair. We're currently hovering around a round number and if we slide through 2.0200 and pick up momentum quickly, I'm going to start selling. Right now I'm hoping it goes higher because I prefer it when price is closer to the previous wave's peak. Going to wait another 4 hours to see what the chart looks like on this pair.
Good morning Zoop! I closed my shorts on this one yesterday for a few pips. The pound is looking healthy today. I am going to wait today for this one to close before I look at it again. If it closes above 2.0170 I believe that it could move north for another 200 pips. That's what my charts tell me.
  • #1,127
  • Jun 9, 2008 12:01pm Jun 9, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting KissFan
Good morning Zoop! I closed my shorts on this one yesterday for a few pips. The pound is looking healthy today. I am going to wait today for this one to close before I look at it again. If it closes above 2.0170 I believe that it could move north for another 200 pips. That's what my charts tell me.
Hey Kiss

How's it going? I'm bias to the shortside for gbpchf based on waves. We haven't had a wave break to the upside yet so I'm only thinking short although this could change if we break up. I'll deal with it when/if we get there.
  • #1,128
  • Jun 9, 2008 12:06pm Jun 9, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting zoopy
Yes. Since we already know the wave has collapsed, we have a high probability bias that the pair is going to go lower. Now it's all a matter of waiting for it to go up first then start dropping. When it starts dropping and picks up speed, we short. That's it.
Just wanted to add to this. Sometimes when a wave breaks, I enter on the break as well but this is more of an aggressive approach. When I do this I'll go in with half a position because there's always the risk of a pullback after, but... I've also seen times when the market carries through like the eurusd did last week.
  • #1,129
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:12pm Jun 9, 2008 3:12pm
Zoop, what do you say abt gold i have confirmed close below 896 on 4hr and hrly peaks and valleys are crystal clear. your insight highly appreciated. regards
Quoting zoopy
This might be why aussie is dropping a little. Gold broke a wave last week so my bias for this is definitely up. Would be interesting to see where this ends up but I do believe up, unless we create a wave and it collapses.

  • #1,130
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:22pm Jun 9, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting kenneith
Zoop, what do you say abt gold i have confirmed close below 896 on 4hr and hrly peaks and valleys are crystal clear. your insight highly appreciated. regards
My bias for gold is still up. Just have to wait for it to turn around before buying. I'd wait longer on this. No need to rush, when the big players come in you'll know.
  • #1,131
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:48pm Jun 9, 2008 6:48pm
Wanted to post these charts of the indexes because I think something very big is on the horizon.
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  • #1,132
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:54pm Jun 9, 2008 6:54pm
Even though this is the Asian session, the eurusd is now on my radar as the line seems to be sloping up slightly. I'll be keeping an eye on this as Bernanke is due to speak in about 20-30 minutes time. If anything, I would definitely be watching 1.5700 to see what happens to momentum at that round number.
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  • #1,133
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:21pm Jun 9, 2008 8:21pm
Thought I had a post on this and probably do but it's scattered throughout my journal. So... what I have decided to do is to create a separate post which will be noted down in the index for easy access.

This post is going to be on what I call "aggressive retracements". Whenever the market moves in a given direction very quickly and by a large margin within a short time frame, expect to possibly see a very aggressive pullback/retracement. A good example of this is the current movement of the eurusd. Last week the pair made an upward move of around 400+ pips within 2 days. Today the pair has retraced back to just about half of that distance (this is also the reason why I never hold onto trades because you never know when this may happen).

So in short, here are the conditions which could trigger off an aggressive retracement.
1. price moves very fast up/down
2. the movement happens very quickly within a few hours
3. the movement is unusually large in comparison to the average movement of the given pair.
  • #1,134
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:37pm Jun 9, 2008 8:37pm
Originally Posted by KissFan http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Good morning Zoop! I closed my shorts on this one yesterday for a few pips. The pound is looking healthy today. I am going to wait today for this one to close before I look at it again. If it closes above 2.0170 I believe that it could move north for another 200 pips. That's what my charts tell me.

Quoting zoopy
Hey Kiss

How's it going? I'm bias to the shortside for gbpchf based on waves. We haven't had a wave break to the upside yet so I'm only thinking short although this could change if we break up. I'll deal with it when/if we get there.

Howdy Zoop! Could you update/post a line chart and give me your take now on this one? I completely missed this trade north because I forgot to set up for it before I left out for a job. I might still get in for long because it looks to me like it could go past 2.0545. I'm going to wait for retrace first. Thanks for your help.
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  • #1,135
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:44pm Jun 9, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting KissFan
Howdy Zoop! Could you update/post a line chart and give me your take now on this one? I completely missed this trade north because I forgot to set up for it before I left out for a job. I might still get in for long because it looks to me like it could go past 2.0545. I'm going to wait for retrace first. Thanks for your help.
Currently this is how I've done my analysis for this pair. We had a wave collapse and the direction is clearly down. Right now I'm waiting for the pair to turn south which hasn't happened yet. When it does I will short.

However... if price was to shoot up and close above the yellow horizontal line I have marked off, the market is telling me it wants to go up and I am wrong. This will be when I change my bias from short to long.
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  • #1,136
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:45pm Jun 9, 2008 8:45pm
Notice I'm changing avatars more often. It is consistant with my "over trading" style.

BTW. That is a bobble-head.
  • #1,137
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:49pm Jun 9, 2008 8:49pm
Quoting KissFan
Notice I'm changing avatars more often. It is consistant with my "over trading" style.

BTW. That is a bobble-head.
haha. I remember when Tiki messaged me one day about that. He noticed I was changing avatars every 20 min or something and asked me how many times a day do I change my avatar.

btw. Notice how I'm posting a lot? It's because I'm trying to reach 1000 posts so that I look like a more experienced trader
  • #1,138
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:57pm Jun 9, 2008 8:57pm
Quoting zoopy
haha. I remember when Tiki messaged me one day about that. He noticed I was changing avatars every 20 min or something and asked me how many times a day do I change my avatar.

btw. Notice how I'm posting a lot? It's because I'm trying to reach 1000 posts so that I look like a more experienced trader
Most can tell by my posts that I'm nothing more than an experienced bull-shitter!! I keep thinking that someone will vouch for me. Heck, I've been trading live now for 15 whole weeks. What's a guy gotta do to get recognized around here. Trade for 6mos or something??
  • #1,139
  • Jun 9, 2008 9:08pm Jun 9, 2008 9:08pm
Quoting KissFan
Most can tell by my posts that I'm nothing more than an experienced bull-shitter!! I keep thinking that someone will vouch for me. Heck, I've been trading live now for 15 whole weeks. What's a guy gotta do to get recognized around here. Trade for 6mos or something??
haha. pssst, I'm really one of them too. You know one of the first things they teach us in Graphic Design is that through good design/presentation, you can sell anything even if the product is absolute garbage

I don't even know what the vouch thing is all about or even that 1KT thing is. Actually... couldn't care less. Unless it makes me a better trader it makes no difference to me.
  • #1,140
  • Jun 9, 2008 9:22pm Jun 9, 2008 9:22pm
Quoting zoopy
haha. pssst, I'm really one of them too. You know one of the first things they teach us in Graphic Design is that through good design/presentation, you can sell anything even if the product is absolute garbage

I don't even know what the vouch thing is all about or even that 1KT thing is. Actually... couldn't care less. Unless it makes me a better trader it makes no difference to me.
Not exactly sure either. Just joking around without meaning any harm or disrespect to vouched, vouchers or 1KT's. I'm just trying to learn this whole PA, fibs and confluence. Sometimes confluence to me is "what are other traders thinking". I can see what I see on the charts but have been wrong too many times. Success in trading to me will be when I don't feel like after I look at my charts I then need to read what others are thinking about when it comes to what the market is doing and then looking at my charts again.
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