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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #9,081
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:18am Jun 9, 2008 7:18am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Crap, It's almost time to go back to the bar. I might as well live there for the remainder of Euro Cup. I have to make sure my staff doesn't get too drunk without me.
And I'm scheduled for a root channel treatment in 2 hours...

Life is so unfair
  • #9,082
  • Jun 9, 2008 9:29am Jun 9, 2008 9:29am
[BRIEFING.COM] Just hitting the wires, April pending home sales unexpectedly bounced 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to National Association of Realtors. Economists expected sales to fall 1.0%. The reading is the highest since October, but is still 13% below one year ago.
  • #9,083
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:27am Jun 9, 2008 10:27am
Quoting cesarnc
That was a hell of a F1 race today, specially with Hamilton screwing up miserably and taking Kimi out with him.. PRICELESS LOLLL..

Here we go to another likely "interesting week", which I have no idea what to do.

Thinking about buying break of Friday's high (1.5820?!?) on Euro and leave the down side alone 'til Tuesday.

Selling break of Friday's low on UJ? I don't know... Dow is likely to rebound from the Friday's carnage... Dunno dunno...

Anybody?
Lewis must be exhausted running for president through the week then driving F1 at the weekends
  • #9,084
  • Jun 9, 2008 11:30am Jun 9, 2008 11:30am
Euro performing text-book correction today...

But I agree with the 1.7 call.

Trichet is known for not getting the market by surprise (like King and Bernanke). He usually calls his move in anticipation and this time he called for a hike in July.

That's why ECB's rate statements provide no move. Euro is usually prices the hike in.

With the oil $150 doomsday being called for July, I think we will see another dollar carnage in the next weeks.
Attached Image
  • #9,085
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:01pm Jun 9, 2008 3:01pm
In recent weeks, Tuesday is giving Euro it's weekly direction, reversing Monday's move...

200 pips move today seems as exaggerated as Friday's. Euro just doesn't put 200 pips on a daily basis...

  • #9,086
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:02pm Jun 9, 2008 3:02pm
AUD is on sale
  • #9,087
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:12pm Jun 9, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting Clouds
AUD is on sale
looks pretty irresistable....
Never say never.
  • #9,088
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:22pm Jun 9, 2008 3:22pm
Holland is working Italy right now 2-0. I mean they are really making Italy look bad. I'm sure Dutch will be pleased. I quit drinking............for tonight. Decided to go to bed early tonight and get away from the party. Lame game between France and Romania here in Zurich 0-0, as boring as it gets.


GOALLLLLL!!!!!!!

Correction Make that 3-0 Holland.
Just Trade It
  • #9,089
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:22pm Jun 9, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting razldazl
looks pretty irresistable....
Yep, and right on trend line on daily
  • #9,090
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:35pm Jun 9, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider

Correction Make that 3-0 Holland.
Italian supporters show incredulity
  • #9,091
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:39pm Jun 9, 2008 4:39pm
Putting braincells to work here...

Euro is supported by the upcoming rate hike. It should go up hard this month, wasn't the fact that dollar is also biased up with recent talks from Fed.

In the other hand, UJ erased all NFP's move, retaking 106, which is calling for more upside - unless the carnage gets back o Wall Street in the next days.

Therefore,

The best way to trade this conflicting bias on EURUSD would be going long EURJPY, taking advantage of both expected trends for the short term.

EJ's all-time high is 168.93, that could be cracked easily in this scenario. Currently 166.30.

The trigger: have no idea. I'm putting buy stop at 167,20 (today's high + spread + scare coeficient.)

And then, check behavior at the all-time high, adding to the long position. Target: no idea.

Why not GBPJPY? Coz it's a damn pig.

Thoughts?
  • #9,092
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:41pm Jun 9, 2008 4:41pm
Quoting cesarnc
Putting braincells to work here...

Euro is supported by the upcoming rate hike. It should go up hard this month, wasn't the fact that dollar is also biased up with recent talks from Fed.

In the other hand, UJ erased all NFP's move, retaking 106, which is calling for more upside - unless the carnage gets back o Wall Street in the next days.

Therefore,

The best way to trade this conflicting bias on EURUSD would be going long EURJPY, taking advantage of both expected trends for the short term.

EJ's all-time high is 168.93, that could be cracked easily in this scenario. Currently 166.30.

The trigger: have no idea. I'm putting buy stop at 167,20 (today's high + spread + scare coeficient.)

And then, check behavior at the all-time high, adding to the long position. Target: no idea.

Thoughts?
I agree, and its good pair buy on dips, with uj rallying like it is.
  • #9,093
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:56pm Jun 9, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting Clouds
I agree, and its good pair buy on dips, with uj rallying like it is.
Not buying now coz I'm afraid euro is still to travel through high-1.55.

Today it corrected to the 50% fib (Thu's low, Fri's high) at the pip. The bottom in this area doesn't seem well put yet. But this 50% fib is usually the bull's figure in this pair.
  • #9,094
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:06pm Jun 9, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting cesarnc
Not buying now coz I'm afraid euro is still to travel through high-1.55.

Today it corrected to the 50% fib (Thu's low, Fri's high) at the pip. The bottom in this area doesn't seem well put yet. But this 50% fib is usually the bull's figure in this pair.
it could go to base at 1.53 again, but i do feel aud is going to bounce back tonight, off daily TL, but that doesnt mean euro will, dont know...I want see 200 pips shaved off EJ before I buy, I would think
  • #9,095
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:11pm Jun 9, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting Clouds
it could go to base at 1.53 again, but i do feel aud is going to bounce back tonight, off daily TL, but that doesnt mean euro will, dont know...I want see 200 pips shaved off EJ before I buy, I would think
Also UJ is almost at top of it's uptrend channel on 4HR, so probably bounce from 106.8 , if it makes it, and down, and up again
  • #9,096
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:17pm Jun 9, 2008 5:17pm
35% Chance, Possible new channel for EUR? It's steep, but sometime EUR like that.
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  • #9,097
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:45pm Jun 9, 2008 5:45pm
Paulson said he will consider stepping into currency markets to bolster US dollar.
  • #9,098
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:06pm Jun 9, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting Clouds
Paulson said he will consider stepping into currency markets to bolster US dollar.
YUP...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Monday declined to rule out intervening in currency markets to stabilize the dollar, but said strong long-term U.S. economic fundamentals would "shine through" in the dollar's value.

"I would never take intervention off the table or any policy tool off the table." Paulson said in an interview on CNBC. "I just can't speculate about what we will or won't do."

Yeah! Just do your job Paulson, leave the speculation with us pros here
  • #9,099
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:12pm Jun 9, 2008 6:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
YUP...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Monday declined to rule out intervening in currency markets to stabilize the dollar, but said strong long-term U.S. economic fundamentals would "shine through" in the dollar's value.

"I would never take intervention off the table or any policy tool off the table." Paulson said in an interview on CNBC. "I just can't speculate about what we will or won't do."

Yeah! Just do your job Paulson, leave the speculation with us pros here
I rarely trade USD pairs anyway, except AUD/USD
  • #9,100
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:39pm Jun 9, 2008 7:39pm
WTF is happening now

why this drop in EURO??!

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