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  • #541
  • Jun 6, 2008 12:17am Jun 6, 2008 12:17am
Brv although i saw that strong resistance level, i did not go short there,that was a mistake and a priceless lessson in the learning process,thanks for your advicei would start my diary of WHAT DID I DO WRONG, cos i did some wrong things yesterday,i believe a gud way to go is believing your instincts wen u are sure of a trade.tanx
  • #542
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:09am Jun 6, 2008 3:09am
This GBP/USD chart is a great example of a real "no brainer" trade. Check out the major convergence at the 1.9600 level. S/R at a '00 level, diagonal trendline, and a 50 retracement on the last swing. Currently up over 50 pips
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  • #543
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:16am Jun 6, 2008 3:16am
I often wonder if you can predict where a run will reverse by looking at where the retracement levels will be. I was eyeing up the 1.9600 level as a short for a while and knew that 1.9460 would put the 50 level at that point. Given that there was evidence of major support at 1.9460 I had a good hunch it was going to reverse but alas I didn't take it.
  • #544
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:56am Jun 6, 2008 3:56am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
MaryP look at a CAD chart.....looks like 1.0219 was the money shot....

You start to scare me.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #545
  • Jun 6, 2008 4:11am Jun 6, 2008 4:11am
Quoting Mary Pippins
You start to scare me.
LOL! Common sense MaryP!
  • #546
  • Jun 6, 2008 4:25am Jun 6, 2008 4:25am
Quoting bodra
This GBP/USD chart is a great example of a real "no brainer" trade. Check out the major convergence at the 1.9600 level. S/R at a '00 level, diagonal trendline, and a 50 retracement on the last swing. Currently up over 50 pips
Yeah I agree that was a good sell zone. Typical strong support turned resistance. Nice call.
  • #547
  • Jun 6, 2008 5:04am Jun 6, 2008 5:04am
hi brv looking at the eur/usd chart there is a historical resisitance at .5589, i am looking to go short on this one and it is with the trend, but consydering the fact of the news today shud i still take the trade.thanks
  • #548
  • Jun 6, 2008 5:47am Jun 6, 2008 5:47am
NFP can blow this all over the place. Stay put for now. EUR/USD is in a bit of a decision zone right now. I'm looking to sell off of 1.5692 or buy from 1.5484. These looks like the most attractive levels to me and are hopefully far enough away to escape the NFP noise.
  • #549
  • Jun 6, 2008 6:17am Jun 6, 2008 6:17am
Hi, I had resistance at 1.5629 it has had two big moves away confirming price rejection, just thought I would put the chart up, to see what you guys think, I am not trading today, but I think the dialogue going on here on BRV's thread is great.

Good weekend too all.
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  • #550
  • Jun 6, 2008 9:07am Jun 6, 2008 9:07am
Quoting Paj
Hi, I had resistance at 1.5629 it has had two big moves away confirming price rejection, just thought I would put the chart up, to see what you guys think, I am not trading today, but I think the dialogue going on here on BRV's thread is great.

Good weekend too all.
That area got taken out by NFP, now 15690 holding.
Would have thought a strong follow thru, but it has stalled there.
Now inventories are making it break the 5700 area.

I see resistance at 5740.

I can't seem to post a picture of my charts. I use esignal. Anybody can help me with this?
  • #551
  • Jun 6, 2008 8:47pm Jun 6, 2008 8:47pm
Enjoying this thread so far, BRV. This is the trading style I enjoy and feel the most comfortable with using. Hopefully I can improve a great deal following on here. My observation on the EU going into next week:


We've just had a 400+ pip run in 2 days. We're at, or very near, major resistance at the closing price level Friday. We broke through the 23 FE yesterday, that's a fib from the consolidation period back in Nov-Dec through the swing high in April. I think it needs to at least retrace and test the 23 as support before it takes a shot at the previous high. The 23 FE of that big swing also happens to be the 50 FE of the past two days' run.

The only thing holding me back from selling now, aside from the fact my broker is closed, is I want to see what happens at market open on Sunday. Specifically, if it gaps up over support. That could provide an even better entry for a short. I'd target half at 5700 and the rest at 5600.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #552
  • Edited 11:01pm Jun 8, 2008 10:49pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/CHF 1.0175 - 1.0166

Good reactionary level for this pair. Price had a hard time deciding on this last downfall where it wanted to start to retrace (the current pullback on the chart below); those 3 peaks in the middle of the charts have a range of about 65 pips, so a little unclear. But the lower level looks solid, if price gets that far, which I think it should.
Finally hit this level tonight and was good for +45 pips so far from 66.

And we keep on rolling along....make that 96% thread accuracy (hoohah).
  • #553
  • Edited 12:39am Jun 9, 2008 12:01am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting finswin56
I'm looking at the EUR/JPY, and think I see a good place to short.

p.s. Would these novice observations be better some place else? I really enjoy this thread, and don't want to dilute it.
Thanks!
Hey finswin, I was just looking over this pair for the night, and this post might be a good learning tool regarding these levels.

A common questions here are:

"When do I short?/Go Long?" or "How long will the move last?"

So this level is a good example for those questions:

#1: 164.95-165.00 is and has been a very strong level. Unquestionably.
#2: 164.95-165.00 has been used and abused for quite some time; eventually it will bust.

and from the chart below, here we can take a look at how to play these things on a regular basis.

- Price made its first hit on this level in quite some time; expecting a retrace.

- Price went down 38 pips and came right back up to the level. Not usually the best sign, and your chances are now favoring a breakout on this level rather than a further decline. During this time, you could have set your stoploss to breakeven

- Had price retraced 80 pips or more, danced around below it for a while, and then came back up, you might see another bounce

- After breaking through the level, the next block of price used the level as support, which is a BULLISH sign (thx Ironman) - time to exit if you haven't already

Hope it clears up some questions.
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  • #554
  • Jun 9, 2008 12:12am Jun 9, 2008 12:12am
hi brv,this wk looks great with wonderful prospects,how was ur weeknd and your family.
i want to find out, is it okay to trade a fib ret,even if it is against the trend
tanks u are a genius
  • #555
  • Jun 9, 2008 12:44am Jun 9, 2008 12:44am
Quoting pastork
hi brv,this wk looks great with wonderful prospects,how was ur weeknd and your family.
i want to find out, is it okay to trade a fib ret,even if it is against the trend
tanks u are a genius
Hi Pastork - all is well thank you; hope the same is true on your end.

Fib levels, diagonal trendlines, etc., are truly safe trades only if they coincide with previous horizontal support and resistance. Others will argue, but I can tell you from experience that probability is much higher this being the case.

I will only look at .50, .618, or .764 fib retracements, personally. If you don't have the .764 fib retracement as default on your drawing tool on your charting software, I suggest you add it. You're missing ALOT of trades otherwise.
  • #556
  • Jun 9, 2008 12:49am Jun 9, 2008 12:49am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hey finswin, I was just looking over this pair for the night, and this post might be a good learning tool regarding these levels.

A common questions here are:

"When do I short?/Go Long?" or "How long will the move last?"

So this level is a good example for those questions:

#1: 164.95-165.00 is and has been a very strong level. Unquestionably.
#2: 164.95-165.00 has been used and abused for quite some time; eventually it will bust.

and from the chart below, here we can take a look at how to play these things on a regular basis.

- Price made its first hit on this level in quite some time; expecting a retrace.

- Price went down 38 pips and came right back up to the level. Not usually the best sign, and your chances are now favoring a breakout on this level rather than a further decline. During this time, you could have set your stoploss to breakeven

- Had price retraced 80 pips or more, danced around below it for a while, and then came back up, you might see another bounce

- After breaking through the level, the next block of price used the level as support, which is a BULLISH sign (thx Ironman) - time to exit if you haven't already

Hope it clears up some questions.
Thanks for the follow up on that one. A lesson I certainly won't forget
  • #557
  • Edited 1:09am Jun 9, 2008 12:58am | Edited 1:09am
Quoting pastork
hi brv,this wk looks great with wonderful prospects,how was ur weeknd and your family.
i want to find out, is it okay to trade a fib ret,even if it is against the trend
tanks u are a genius
Crap, what a mess. Yeah I know, but in regards to your question, 1.0130 looks like the next logical place for longs on USDCHF. Its a .50 wave retracement from the largest pullback and also holds some historical support/resistance significance. Not the best, but its there.

Same story with the 2 lower levels. See what I mean? If E=mc2 was so easy why should this junk be any different?

I lost my crystal ball and the local psychic is on vacation in Miami so this chart will have to do for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #558
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:14am Jun 9, 2008 3:14am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5840 - 1.5852

I know what you're thinking. "Why short EUR right now?" Well, I agree, but if anything I'm expecting some type of reaction from this for a number of different reasons.
This trade finally hit; price went to 1.5841 before declining for about +40 pips max profit so far.

To shine some light on the setup, it was a .764 retracement from largest wave and showed strong signs of s/r. Needs to break 1.5800 downside for continuation.
  • #559
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:27am Jun 9, 2008 4:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Crap, what a mess. Yeah I know, but in regards to your question, 1.0130 looks like the next logical place for longs on USDCHF. Its a .50 wave retracement from the largest pullback and also holds some historical support/resistance significance. Not the best, but its there.

Same story with the 2 lower levels. See what I mean? If E=mc2 was so easy why should this junk be any different?

I lost my crystal ball and the local psychic is on vacation in Miami so this chart will have to do for now.
In case anyone is wondering, careful on this level now. USDCHF made a major bounce about 15 pips away from the level, which, in general, weakens the probability of another major bounce from anything that close to it. Just to give you an idea. Its rare that this happens on a regular, intraday basis without any news, but EUR correlation seems to have contributed to the shift in price action. It might work out, but I wouldn't take it now; not worth the risk.
  • #560
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:27am Jun 9, 2008 5:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
This trade finally hit; price went to 1.5841 before declining for about +40 pips max profit so far.

To shine some light on the setup, it was a .764 retracement from largest wave and showed strong signs of s/r. Needs to break 1.5800 downside for continuation.
+60 pips at most from this so far....looks like we're doing the consolidation thing after the spike again.
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