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  • #1,061
  • Jun 6, 2008 10:18am Jun 6, 2008 10:18am
Just noticed cable has broken a wave to the upside. End of this hour it will be confirmed if we end up above the horizontal bar. I'd wait for a deep pullback and price to turn around then start buying. Bias for this pair will be long if we have a confirmed break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_4hour_break.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,062
  • Jun 6, 2008 10:20am Jun 6, 2008 10:20am
Very big collapse on gbpchf 4 hour chart. Bias for this pair is still down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf_4hour_collapse.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,063
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:44am Jun 6, 2008 11:44am
This could be a good setup to short if we make a big pullback today. If price goes to around 1.6185 and starts to turn south, that would be a good opportunity. Have to wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf_4hour_pullback.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,064
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:10pm Jun 6, 2008 1:10pm
hi zoopy, is this the right setup for the pair to go long in the highlighted area?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_h4.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,065
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:33pm Jun 6, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting fanias
hi zoopy, is this the right setup for the pair to go long in the highlighted area?
Yes, but only if it turns around and starts going up. Don't go long yet, wait for it to turn around then buy.
  • #1,066
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:41pm Jun 6, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting zoopy
Yes, but only if it turns around and starts going up. Don't go long yet, wait for it to turn around then buy.
This is an example why you MUST wait until price turns around. On usdchf there was a buy signal first but then price dropped and the wave collapsed.

When this happens, you exit your buy if you took it. If the wave collapses you are obviously wrong and the market is telling you this. What I would then do is either...

a) enter a small short position when the wave collapses OR
b) wait for price to pullback and then short when it turns around and heads down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_4hour_buy.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_4hour_sell.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,067
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:58pm Jun 6, 2008 1:58pm
lol... ok so I was checking the movement on euro vs gbpjpy again today. Once again eurusd put gbpjpy to shame. As of now...

eurusd = 201 pips
gbpjpy = 131 pips

One of these days we will have to nickname the eurusd "The BEAST" because it's certainly turning into one.
  • #1,068
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:04pm Jun 6, 2008 2:04pm
This is a view at what's happening on the daily timeframe. We're about to break a wave to the upside. If we get a confirmed break by the end of today, look for a big pullback (I believe we'll get one early next week because this move up is way overdone). Once we get the pullback and price starts turning up again, go long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_dailywave.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #1,069
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:13pm Jun 6, 2008 2:13pm
This is a good example of why I follow the direction that the waves break. Look at oil... kinda extreme if you ask me but proves my point. Don't try and pick tops/bottoms, follow the waves instead. When they break up, you buy. When they break down, you sell. Enter on pullbacks if you can since this minimizes the risk the most.

In the oil example, I would wait for it to drop and when it starts turning around and going up again, I would buy. Just keep buying until waves collapse. When they collapse, reverse the strategy and go the opposite direction. Follow the market, that's all there is to it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil_4hourwave.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #1,070
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:35pm Jun 6, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting zoopy
This is an example why you MUST wait until price turns around. On usdchf there was a buy signal first but then price dropped and the wave collapsed.

When this happens, you exit your buy if you took it. If the wave collapses you are obviously wrong and the market is telling you this. What I would then do is either...

a) enter a small short position when the wave collapses OR
b) wait for price to pullback and then short when it turns around and heads down.
I agree with your approach and how you trade the markets using the waves.
very nice posts keep up the good work. I'll wait for price turn north again then send my scout in near the last bottom.
  • #1,071
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:50pm Jun 6, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting fanias
I agree with your approach and how you trade the markets using the waves.
very nice posts keep up the good work. I'll wait for price turn north again then send my scout in near the last bottom.
Thanks Fanias

I'm not sure if usdjpy will turn up. I think the current wave may end up collapsing. Will have to see what happens next week.
  • #1,072
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:56pm Jun 6, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting zoopy
Thanks Fanias

I'm not sure if usdjpy will turn up. I think the current wave may end up collapsing. Will have to see what happens next week.
what happened with the current wave of this pair to make you thinking like that?
  • #1,073
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:06pm Jun 6, 2008 3:06pm
Quoting fanias
what happened with the current wave of this pair to make you thinking like that?
Because usdjpy is closely correlated with eurusd, gbpusd, usdchf. I believe it's also closely correlated with the Dow Jones.

If you were watching the other pairs, they're hammering the USD right now because of bad NFP numbers that came out this morning. Besides, you would have to wait for price to turn around and close first before considering a long. That hasn't happened yet. If it does, then you should buy and follow the plan.
  • #1,074
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:14pm Jun 6, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting zoopy
Because usdjpy is closely correlated with eurusd, gbpusd, usdchf. I believe it's also closely correlated with the Dow Jones.

If you were watching the other pairs, they're hammering the USD right now because of bad NFP numbers that came out this morning. Besides, you would have to wait for price to turn around and close first before considering a long. That hasn't happened yet. If it does, then you should buy and follow the plan.
of course I would have to wait for price to turn around and close first before considering a long. thanks for your thoughts, I'll stick to the plan
  • #1,075
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:21pm Jun 6, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting fanias
of course I would have to wait for price to turn around and close first before considering a long. thanks for your thoughts, I'll stick to the plan
Good idea. Stick to the plan. It may still make another wave up but I'm not sure how big the wave will be. Might still be able to get 100 pips. Will see next week
  • #1,076
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:27pm Jun 6, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting fanias
of course I would have to wait for price to turn around and close first before considering a long. thanks for your thoughts, I'll stick to the plan
Also... don't forget this post. You can find this one and others all in post#1 of my journal. I've created an index so you can find information quickly.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=927

The above link is to a post I created on round numbers and how I use them to determine the strength of a currency. Right now on usdjpy we're below 105.00 so there's a greater risk of it slipping to 104.00, especially if it drops to 104.70.
  • #1,077
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:35pm Jun 6, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting zoopy
Good idea. Stick to the plan. It may still make another wave up but I'm not sure how big the wave will be. Might still be able to get 100 pips. Will see next week
yes, 100 pips is my usual target and enough for my trades
I'm not greedy with the markets.
  • #1,078
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:46pm Jun 6, 2008 3:46pm
Quoting zoopy
Also... don't forget this post. You can find this one and others all in post#1 of my journal. I've created an index so you can find information quickly.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=927

The above link is to a post I created on round numbers and how I use them to determine the strength of a currency. Right now on usdjpy we're below 105.00 so there's a greater risk of it slipping to 104.00, especially if it drops to 104.70.
an example of the above post is the price action of eurusd around 1.775 right now? because of resistance 1.800
  • #1,079
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:47pm Jun 6, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting fanias
yes, 100 pips is my usual target and enough for my trades
I'm not greedy with the markets.
Me too. 100 is more than enough. Everytime the market creates waves too so everytime 100 pips.
  • #1,080
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:51pm Jun 6, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting fanias
an example of the above post is the price action of eurusd around 1.775 right now? because of resistance 1.800
The markets are pretty much closed right now so I wouldn't read too much into it. Just judging from the bars near 1.5800, I don't see anyone defending that level but this could also be because it's Friday. Better to take a look at the market on Monday to get a sense of where things are going.
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