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Help needed in OANDA + users from Malaysia 105 replies

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  • #13,741
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:33am Jun 6, 2008 1:33am
Quoting winston
geppy i would wait for this current candle to give me hint.although it's just below D_r1... imho
eurjpy would be interesting as well.. price in W_R2.. prev candle has a long wick on top... this current candle might give us a hint after close...
  • #13,742
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:34am Jun 6, 2008 1:34am
Quoting winston
geppy i would wait for this current candle to give me hint.although it's just below D_r1... imho
good m8
  • #13,743
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:47am Jun 6, 2008 1:47am
Quoting Ultraman
added short on geppy at 207.93
target : 206.50 at 1st
Best of luck....Will wait for candle to close below weekly pivot to enter short....
  • #13,744
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:50am Jun 6, 2008 1:50am
Abanglong why so quiet bro....How's trading?
  • #13,745
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:55am Jun 6, 2008 1:55am
hi all , wish u all happy trading today...
  • #13,746
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:26am Jun 6, 2008 2:26am
Quoting johnbaem
Afternoon... Hit my PO and battling...

TAYOR~~~
Afternoon people.. Current around 60 pips profit...
  • #13,747
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:46am Jun 6, 2008 2:46am
Cautious guys...

NFP tonite and usually this will cause irrational move before heading to suppose direction.. Place properly ur SL if needed or switch on your graph.. Thats better..
  • #13,748
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:06am Jun 6, 2008 3:06am
Quoting Malaysia
Uh... It's FRIDAY today. Gtg preparing myself for the pray. See ya!
hallo...sham..after jumaat praying..could u give just a bit advise ..
where e/u heading...this evening......actually i prefer going to short...after 1.5615....so any suggestion?.....
  • #13,749
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:07am Jun 6, 2008 3:07am
Candlestick Forecast for 6 June 2008

Based on Daily Candlestick on 5 June (Thursday)

1. USDCHF
- Engulfing Bearish Line: Aggressive Sell Signal
- Doji & Shooting Star: Possible Reversal

PREVIOUS 1st DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- White Doji star Reversal: possible top

PREVIOUS 2nd DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
---Bullish Harami Line: Wait for next signal.



2. USDJPY
- Piercing Line contribution: Bullish continuation

PREVIOUS 1st DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- White lower shadow
-- Confluence Sign: Bearish Signal in nature

PREVIOUS 2nd DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
--- Incomplete Dark Cloud Continuation: indicating down trend


3. EURUSD
- White Inside Out Up: Buy Signal

PREVIOUS 1st DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Black Spinning Top: Neutral
-- Stochastic Oscillator oversold

PREVIOUS 2nd DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
--- Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover: Market overbought: Stochastic is below 40, look to cover short position when stochastic is below 20.




4. GBPUSD
- Bullish Harami Line: Look for Reversal

PREVIOUS 1st DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Bearish Trending : Sell signal

PREVIOUS 2nd DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
--- Black inverted hammer


5. GBPJPY
- Engulfing Bullish Candle: Buy signal

PREVIOUS 1st DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Long legged Black Doji Line: possible reversal
-- Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover: Bearish in nature but need confirmation. Might well to ignore it.

PREVIOUS 2nd DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
--- Bearish Hangman continuation: Indicate a bearish trend

  • #13,750
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:13am Jun 6, 2008 3:13am
Quoting Ultraman
added short on geppy at 207.93
target : 206.50 at 1st
in a hour say good bye to 207
205 i hope so she will go there
  • #13,751
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:15am Jun 6, 2008 3:15am
Quoting manfx
hallo...sham..after jumaat praying..could u give just a bit advise ..
where e/u heading...this evening......actually i prefer going to short...after 1.5615....so any suggestion?.....
I don't advice people about TRADE Entry in here... and I don't make a TRADE CALL. I just REPORTING my own trade.

SHORT on FIBER still floating. Fiber BULL did tried once to penetrate the WEEKLY PIVOT... but fail so far. Nearly touch my SL though.

SHORT on CABLE still floating and looking good. SL already at BE.

Today is NFP. Nobody can give any kind of certainty until NFP is out of the way. The movement can be so IRRATIONAL.

Save side... don't trade. Come back next week

Quoting Malaysia
FIBER H4 Doji CS at the Weekly Pivot. Took the chance of Weekly Pivot holding Strong. Good R&R Ratio... SHORTED already with SL above the Weekly Pivot.

T.A.Y.O.R.
Quoting Malaysia
CABLE 50% Retracement which is exactly at 1.9600, which happened to be last Strong SUPPORT area. Now it has become Strong RESISTANCE. Therefore, SBR area.

Took my SELL FROM BOUNCE with SL above the SBR area.

T.A.Y.O.R.
  • #13,752
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:15am Jun 6, 2008 3:15am
4H candle closes below W_R2 and looks like a doji/shooting star... i might try to go short...
Attached Image
  • #13,753
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:21am Jun 6, 2008 3:21am
Quoting Malaysia
Weird week indeed. Started good... but loosing streak last night. When Politic and Economic mixed up = Chaos. Whose ball bigger? Trichet or Bernanke?

Perhaps it's a Campaign to make the Euro as the replacement for the Greenback for the world National Reserve currency.

TP on Price Action. Hopefully I can close the trade before NFP... or... SL hit early. My PLAN is... just in case Cable and Fiber dropping more than 30pips from my Short Entry price... and NFP just a few minutes away... I will just place the SL at BE.

So far... all good data came out from US. Perhaps NFP also good tonight. ADP reported good data... but can't really rely on ADP accuracy.

For GEPPY... if NFP is good... it will become DEAD CAT ALIVE. if NFP is bad... it will become DEAD CAT BOUNCE.

T.A.Y.O.R. >>> Trade At Your Own Risk!!!

If someone ask me about my TP... I already said so.

T.A.Y.O.R!!!
  • #13,754
  • Jun 6, 2008 4:07am Jun 6, 2008 4:07am
Quoting johnbaem
Afternoon people.. Current around 60 pips profit...
Good for you bro
  • #13,755
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:00am Jun 6, 2008 7:00am
What is the word for a Female Fellow Trader or is there one ?

That thought came into my head as I posted the title of my post.

Now on to the business of making money. Another question first. Who trades by only using or mainly using the charts ?

The reason that I ask that is to start a serious dialogue with those that do.

45 Minutes to NFP so I will start my analysis getting ready for the moment.

 

  1. In what seemed to grip the markets by a surprise, ECB chief Trichet stated in his post rate-decision talk that a rate increase is “possible” in the month of July, sending EURUSD rapidly above 1.56
  2. Wal-Mart and Costco were out with May sales above expectations indicating the US consumer is in better shape than expected. We explain this buoyancy as down to the $150 billion stimulation package from the government.
  3. MBIA Inc. and Ambac, the world's largest bond insurers, had their AAA insurance financial strength rankings lowered by Standard & Poor's from AAA to AA. More than $1 trillion of municipal bonds and corporate securities the companies guaranteed depend on those top ratings. The downgrades raise concerns about further writedowns at investment banks and insurance companies.
  4. Asian stocks advanced, led by oil producers and Japanese companies reliant on U.S. sales, after crude prices surged the most in two months and the yen weakened to a three-month low against the dollar.

Does everyone remember my post of a few days ago after Bernake spoke about the USA and the STRONG DOLLAR POLICY which in normal times is left for the Treasury to jawbone on.

I will reproduce it after this post to save folks time in finding it. Forex trading is somewhat like playing chess except the pieces are human and can always surprise.

I suggested the INTERVENTION happened because of some BAD news on the horizon. YES, it could well be a TERRIBLE NFP number minus 100,000 or more or the BLS might create 100,000 Ghost jobs so the number is plus 25,000 with their cover the ADP number of + 40,000 which was a surprise to many.

Guess what as in chess most might conclude a bad number but you can NEVER be sure so be ready for a surprise.

Here is the BAD NEWS they were getting ahead of.

THEY KNEW THIS IN ADVANCE. COUNT ON IT !!!

S&P downgrades Ambac, MBIA
Another day, another selloff for Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI). The bond insurers sold off anew Thursday afternoon after S&P cut its insurer financial strength ratings on the companies’ main insurance units to double-A from triple-A. The news came a day after Moody’s said a downgrade of Ambac and MBIA was “likely.” Shares fell more than 6% after dropping more than 15% Wednesday.
“The rating actions on the companies reflect our belief that these entities will face diminished public finance and structured finance new business flow and declining financial flexibility,” S&P wrote. “In addition, we believe continuing deterioration in key areas of the U.S. residential mortgage sector and related CDO structures will place increasing pressure on capital adequacy. The ‘AA’ financial strength ratings of these companies are supported by currently sound claims paying ability and liquidity levels in our opinion.”
On Wednesday, the companies responded to Moody’s review announcement within minutes, with Ambac pronouncing itself “disappointed” and MBIA saying it “disagreed.” Presumably we can expect more of the same this afternoon.
More…

The above is from WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Please take the time once a day to go to this free site to get information you must have to be aware of what is happening in the chess game.

Speaking of which, Trichet then made his move against the misguided hope and not reality that the ECB would cut or hold firm. Now they might hold firm but Trichet needed to counter Bernake's move.

The announcement by Moody's has DIRE consequences as it just about ensures MORE massive WRITE OFFS in the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars.

I am going to close this post at about 8:00 AM EST to find the post that I did after the Bernake INTERVENTION of a few days ago which was NOT long lasting thanks to Trichet's counter move.


Bruce

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  • #13,756
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:21am Jun 6, 2008 7:21am
Quoting Warren Forex
I have seen this movie before and I know how it ends. Here is the plotl line with the facts and the hot air that went with the facts.

My focus is on 5:00 AM and Bernake at 9:00 AM and the US Data due out on Friday.

RIGHT NOW WE HAVE INTERVENTION PERIOD...

Every time the US Dollar reaches a critical level they have no choice but to do something. So we start by Bernake talking up the US Dollar without raising rates which is not a good idea for the US Economy already in recession.

In the last two days there has been more terrible banking news including downgrades. The NFP is called for - 50,000 or so. The ECB and BOE meets on Thursday.

Gold was recovering and Oil was holding. The 2 Year Treasury dropped to 2.49% only 49 basis points over the FED Discount rate of 2.00%

Now let's look at where we are. The Dow is UP 43 or so BUT right after Bernake spoke it was down about 10. The 2 Year US Bonds (Treasuries) are now at 2.54% which means they are being sold again as the Yield goes up.

The USD/JPY was at a Low of 103.86 and is now 105.45 Bid. Gold is down as is Oil. Oil is down $1.76 and Gold down $14.30

All that MONEY is going INTO CASH again just like last week. The EUR/USD is at 154.25 and EUR/JPY has risen off it's Low at 161.815 to 162.61 so some of the Carry Trade is back on in Selling of Yen and Buying of Euro.

The HIGH in USD/JPY was 105.578 so far.

The FUNDAMENTALS have NOT CHANGED 1% BUT Bernake Spoke during a coordinated INTERVENTION by ALL CENTRAL BANKS !!!

Why ? The Answer all they have left is BS and BAD NEWS is around the corner.

I could be wrong since the market is always right but the Initial Reaction to Bernake was BAD for the Dow. That told me a lot. Now Technical Levels have changed on ALL the FX Currencies so Charts should be looked at again.

For MYSELF and PLEASE make your own chices as in the end only you are responsible for profits or losses. I am looking for JUST the RIGHT Moment To SHORT USD/JPY.

Look at the Dow now. It is ONLY UP 15 now.

What is the NEXT RESISTANCE on USD/JPY ?

This is my take on things at the moment !!!


Bruce

June 6, 2008 8:03 AM

Time for an UPDATE before the Number !!!

Dow Futures UP 2 ... 2 Year Treasury at 2.54% ... Oil at $130 again
Gold UP to $887 UP $11

Now there are things to consider past my points here.

With ALL the Chess Moves what is the BOTTOM LINE ?

The USA is in Financial Difficulty like NEVER before. The FED cannot raise and might CUT and the ECB might raise but will not CUT.

Another Trillion in losses to come means the FED and Banks around the world go to stage two and the Dow comes down especially with MASSIVE Job losses to come. The USD/JPY carry trade continues to UNWIND and USD/JPY goes back to 100.00 or LESS !!!

There we go. I just ANNOUNCED in Advance who WINS the CHESS GAME.

You Folks if you understand the GAME and play it properly. Please KEEP in mind the charts only measure Human Psychology at this EXACT moment.

Learn how to see PERCEPTION being correct or wrong and then you TOO can play the game by getting ready to MOVE to the REALITY side JUST BEFORE the Masses who bottom line, financially are the MASSES without the "M" or better stated "WITHOUT THE MONEY"

The Money is in my Pocket. Why not PUT some in yours as well ?

The RESISTANCE in USD/JPY according to DC Bonta is 106.50 to 106.60

A Good Short coming up BUT be aware of GAMES in the NFP number. They could make it Plus 50,000 or it could be MINUS 50,000

Also Be Aware sometimes the REVISION if any is more important most of the time if large than the Headline number.

Since they create Ghost Jobs this moment can be just like playing a lottery.

Trading Forex should be not that. Be also ready for OVERREACTION either way and be ready to trade extremes and keep in mind that the Dow is another Indicator in USD/JPY as well as be aware that EUR/JPY has moved UP about 200 PIPS not affecting USD/JPY above 107.00 so a SELL OFF in EUR/JPY if it happens will BRING USD/JPY down in most cases.

Much to think and be aware about. NFP in 10 Minutes.

Are WE ready to Rock and Roll ?

Please POST any comments, questions or suggestions.

Thank you for your patience in reading my lengthy posts.


Bruce
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  • #13,757
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:42am Jun 6, 2008 7:42am
Ouch!!! So %$#@& volatile!!! We've got better than expected NFP ... but still bad number. And increasing UNEMPLOYMENT.

8:30am USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif Nonfarm Employment Change -49K -57K -28K
8:30am USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif Unemployment Rate 5.5% 5.1% 5.0%
  • #13,758
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:45am Jun 6, 2008 7:45am
Close my position E/U.....+ 200 pips....

Attached Image
  • #13,759
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:53am Jun 6, 2008 7:53am
From "Knowledge Is Power " thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif I Had It Correct !!!
The IMMEDIATE Bad News being planned for by the FED was the Unemployment Rate of 5.5%

Any comments out there ?

Look at USD/JPY now. I shorted it at 106.30 and got 75 FAST PIPS !!! on 10 Positions of 100K

That is why I earn PLUS 20% a month on managed funds.

Know how to play "The Chess Game"

#139 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/report.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_new.gif Today 8:50am

Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 599


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Another Good Point !!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The IMMEDIATE Bad News being planned for by the FED was the Unemployment Rate of 5.5%

Any comments out there ?

Look at USD/JPY now. I shorted it at 106.30 and got 75 FAST PIPS !!! on 10 Positions of 100K

That is why I earn PLUS 20% a month on managed funds.

Know how to play "The Chess Game"


Bruce
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  • #13,760
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:58am Jun 6, 2008 7:58am
[quote=Warren Forex;2041248]From "Knowledge Is Power " thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif I Had It Correct !!!
The IMMEDIATE Bad News being planned for by the FED was the Unemployment Rate of 5.5%

Any comments out there ?

Look at USD/JPY now. I shorted it at 106.30 and got 75 FAST PIPS !!! on 10 Positions of 100K

That is why I earn PLUS 20% a month on managed funds.

Know how to play "The Chess Game"



I really hope folks understand that I am trying to help people increase their profits if they want to. Yes some stubborn folks do not want to change a losing system because it just is not convenient. Life is not always fair or convenient.

There always is a overreaction short term so take PROFITS. Get back in again.

This was a BIG enough Home Run for me.

Dow Futures Down 66

Any Thoughts out there or feedback ?


Bruce
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