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  • #521
  • Jun 5, 2008 2:51pm Jun 5, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi pastork, I was just looking to find the top here, but didnt have anything set in stone as far as when to go; dont think I should have posted that.

If I see something good I'll let you know but that was just an intraday move for me that got stopped out at breakeven.

Please read through the thread and try to see how I trade here. There is a lot of valuable info available from me or other members. The idea is to enter these trades right at key reversal points; no sooner, no later.

To all: I'm not a trading advisor here and I'm not perfect. Just please be aware that anything you take is your own doing and not mine. These are just recommendations.
Speaking for myself only, I'm just enjoying the education. Many thanks!

Regarding this pair, it seems we've broken through that recent R that was formerly a strong S. Is this the type of thing you're looking for the bars to close over the figure to look for support?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #522
  • Jun 5, 2008 2:54pm Jun 5, 2008 2:54pm
I just want to say something especially for new traders.

The most effective way to learn for me has been through practice. Posting a bunch of charts and showing levels serves no purpose if nothing is being done about it. Thats why I post trades. To prove points. That's it. Also listening to me is your option, not mine.

Trade management is the most important aspect to trading. Knowing when to call it quits on a loser and when to let profits ride on a winner is a touchy subject and a very hard thing to master.

I curse any FX educational programs that boast you can make millions from nothing trading FX and how simple it is and what a great way to make a living. Keep in mind most of these people want your money for their services because they havent been successful trading themselves.

Trading sucks a lot of times, wears you out and is more addictive than crack.

There are no premier parties, christmas parties or trophies given to successful traders or losing traders for that matter; nobody cares. You're on your own.

But we've all got that desire to succeed deeply rooted within us, and like anything else, if you do it long enough, you're going to become fairly good at it.

I post these things to speed up the process, but I encourage you to read, and read carefully, from the experiences of all traders saying one thing or another throughout this forum. Soak it up, think about it, think about it some more, and then think about it a little more.

I dont jump the gun on trades. When I do I lose money. Patience is everything in trading, no matter what you're trading. Just keep practicing, and only take good trades you have a lot of confidence in. Thats really the best way to learn. And when you do something stupid, just dont do it again.

Assiduus usus uni rei deditus et ingenium et artem saepe vincit....
  • #523
  • Jun 5, 2008 2:57pm Jun 5, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting finswin56
Speaking for myself only, I'm just enjoying the education. Many thanks!

Regarding this pair, it seems we've broken through that recent R that was formerly a strong S. Is this the type of thing you're looking for the bars to close over the figure to look for support?
Yes, but EURJPY or any other cross has a much harder time adhering to those rules than the majors.
  • #524
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:08pm Jun 5, 2008 3:08pm
haha, how about:

Per ardua ad astra
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #525
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:14pm Jun 5, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting Mary Pippins
haha, how about:

Per ardua ad astra
.....another way of looking at it. Atleast the chances of you becoming a prfoitable trader are more than winning the lottery. That's a plus.
  • #526
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:24pm Jun 5, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hahaha, no sweat but we're not into slapping around here. This is an anti-slap thread, dedicated to building brains only.

Here's some of what we were looking at for you to get an idea. I tried to circle some of the major points; the retracement was from the last major wave up....also if you zoom in on an hourly you can see some things that arent on here over time. Regardless we were off by about 9 pips or so. Oh well....sometimes too close to call. But hope this helps.

Also looking at this chart, 1.0219 looks to be about the next best place for a sell. But still contemplating. Next couple of days are flooded with big news events for the loonie.
MaryP look at a CAD chart.....looks like 1.0219 was the money shot....
  • #527
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:28pm Jun 5, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I just want to say something especially for new traders.

The most effective way to learn for me has been through practice. Posting a bunch of charts and showing levels serves no purpose if nothing is being done about it. Thats why I post trades. To prove points. That's it. Also listening to me is your option, not mine.

Trade management is the most important aspect to trading. Knowing when to call it quits on a loser and when to let profits ride on a winner is a touchy subject and a very hard thing to master.

I curse any FX educational programs that boast you can make millions from nothing trading FX and how simple it is and what a great way to make a living. Keep in mind most of these people want your money for their services because they havent been successful trading themselves.

Trading sucks a lot of times, wears you out and is more addictive than crack.

There are no premier parties, christmas parties or trophies given to successful traders or losing traders for that matter; nobody cares. You're on your own.

But we've all got that desire to succeed deeply rooted within us, and like anything else, if you do it long enough, you're going to become fairly good at it.

I post these things to speed up the process, but I encourage you to read, and read carefully, from the experiences of all traders saying one thing or another throughout this forum. Soak it up, think about it, think about it some more, and then think about it a little more.

I dont jump the gun on trades. When I do I lose money. Patience is everything in trading, no matter what you're trading. Just keep practicing, and only take good trades you have a lot of confidence in. Thats really the best way to learn. And when you do something stupid, just dont do it again.

Assiduus usus uni rei deditus et ingenium et artem saepe vincit....
95% of trades posted here (about 20 that hit so far) have been winners from +20 pips to +hundreds. Please look at them carefully and understand WHY.

The answer to WHY is the goal of this thread.

If I can teach you that much I feel the job is done. Making money off of these trades is NOT the goal of the thread. Using your brain is what's most important; not mine.
  • #528
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:40pm Jun 5, 2008 3:40pm
Short NZD/USD 0.7781 - 0.7788

Keep in mind price could turn starting at 0.7769 if and when it gets up there, but this is the safer sell. This has been a very hard area for this pair. I have a feeling price will move into the upper portion of this range, and might even overshoot it up to 93, but just a heads up.
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  • #529
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:50pm Jun 5, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting finswin56
I'm looking at the EUR/JPY, and think I see a good place to short.

p.s. Would these novice observations be better some place else? I really enjoy this thread, and don't want to dilute it.
Thanks!
According to my chart this is hitting the top of a diagonal trendline moving down right now (daily, 4hr). Just an FYI that it won't go unnoticed, for whatever happens next. I dont normally play bounces off of diagonal trendlines, but just wanted you to see it.
  • #530
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:08pm Jun 5, 2008 4:08pm
One of things I used to do when I started off was create a simple word doc entitled "You lost money because...".

I wrote down why I lost money, and then I wrote down how many pips I lost. I never closed it from my desktop and looked at it at the beginning of every trading day. And I made sure to state how dumb I was or if the outcome was unforseeable.
  • #531
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:14pm Jun 5, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
One of things I used to do when I started off was create a simple word doc entitled "You lost money because...".

I wrote down why I lost money, and then I wrote down how many pips I lost. I never closed it from my desktop and looked at it at the beginning of every trading day. And I made sure to state how dumb I was or if the outcome was unforseeable.
That seems like a good exercise to do, will try it. thanks
  • #532
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:14pm Jun 5, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine

I dont jump the gun on trades. When I do I lose money. Patience is everything in trading, no matter what you're trading. Just keep practicing, and only take good trades you have a lot of confidence in. Thats really the best way to learn. And when you do something stupid, just dont do it again.

Assiduus usus uni rei deditus et ingenium et artem saepe vincit....
Billy Ray,

I am leafing through this thread, and I like it a lot. There are far too few of these in the public side of FF.

By the way - I LOVE THE NAME. Trading Places is probably the greatest movie of all time. (I use the "I gotta get the kids the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip or I don't get no p&*#y thought to buy or sell all the time! )

Ok, onto more important things.

The quoted part of this post cannot possibly be quoted enough. I agree with it 150%, when I jump the gun on trades, I lose money.

For me, "Jumping the gun" means playing trades off shorter time frames generally. If I stay to 4 hour and dailies....I have a remarkable "hit rate". And actually, if you were to go into my trade journal, you would see that most of my losses had one thing in common: They were taken off shorter time frame charts. Every once in a while I get slapped around on the 4 hour chart, but to be honest.....since I started trading the higher times frames and ignoring the news - it's been A LOT easier for me.

I will be reading this thread, I like it a lot. Thanks!

Clockwork
  • #533
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:20pm Jun 5, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting brandonnkim
This is a great thread!!! If I understand how to draw S/R correctly, it looks like the GBP/USD is coming up to a major support on the Daily chart. It's been hit 4 times already. I'm wondering what others think will happen if it hits a 5th time?
For what it's worth, I took a long on this pair today based on a 4 hour "pinbar" that formed. I took 60 pips and got out. Normally I would hold on a bit.

Why get out? Because tomorrow is a great day to stay out of the markets. NFP Fridays are the worst.

If you have ever watched "Wall Street Warriors", you see bits about these futures traders placing "bets" ahead of some Concentrated O.J. number. Can someone tell me how this isn't gambling? You certainly can see it in that guy's facial expressions.

I would rather let all the noise go on......then react as the dust settles.

However, this was a really, really, good set up. Good job seeing it. (Assuming you are newer trader.)

Great thread BRV.

Clockwork
  • #534
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:27pm Jun 5, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
For what it's worth, I took a long on this pair today based on a 4 hour "pinbar" that formed. I took 60 pips and got out. Normally I would hold on a bit.

Why get out? Because tomorrow is a great day to stay out of the markets. NFP Fridays are the worst.

If you have ever watched "Wall Street Warriors", you see bits about these futures traders placing "bets" ahead of some Concentrated O.J. number. Can someone tell me how this isn't gambling? You certainly can see it in that guy's facial expressions.

I would rather let all the noise go on......then react as the dust settles.

However, this was a really, really, good set up. Good job seeing it. (Assuming you are newer trader.)

Great thread BRV.

Clockwork
Hi Clockwork. Thanks for the kind words. GBP actually had a setup today at that 60 level. Its held strong in the past and I thought a reversal was due, just not to the size that came. Overall not bad. Very glad to hear the profits coming for those out there.
  • #535
  • Jun 5, 2008 5:01pm Jun 5, 2008 5:01pm
Hi BRV,

Would you mind explaining what constitutes S&R to you? It seems that there are many levels, but it's not till later that you can identify which ones were the key reversal points. Some break through easily that earlier had a bounce..etc...what are your "standards" ?

Thanks.
  • #536
  • Jun 5, 2008 5:13pm Jun 5, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting renegade7
Hi BRV,

Would you mind explaining what constitutes S&R to you? It seems that there are many levels, but it's not till later that you can identify which ones were the key reversal points. Some break through easily that earlier had a bounce..etc...what are your "standards" ?

Thanks.
Time since it last touched the level, recent strength, and sometimes coinciding with key fib retracements. If you were to look at a 4hr chart, just pick out the heaviest levels of support and resistance historically. They are usually very easy to spot.

The easier they are to spot, the more likely price will react.

Look for support turned resistance, and resistance turned support over and over again through history. You are more than likely to very easily pick out major levels. Fib retracement from longer term waves are the most significant. Look for s/r levels around the .50, .618 and .764 levels. These are the most important.

If a level was just touched and price runs back to it after a small bit, dont count on it holding. Time needs to lapse so orders can build up and people take notice of the level as being a key reversal point.

If you are in a downtrend, look for support levels that were resistance levels on the way up using the descriptions posted a couple pages ago. Same goes in reverse for an uptrend. Hope this helps.
  • #537
  • Edited 6:47pm Jun 5, 2008 5:18pm | Edited 6:47pm
Quoting dan_mir
I think that Bill's reason for shorting is the 15M chart -
Actually not really I got in on the first hit up to that level because on the 4hr it was showing some strength, and I was in general looking for the top of this trend. I was in the money for about 20 pips before price reversed and I was stopped out at breakeven. It hit it a few pips later at 106.39 resistance and came back down about 70-80 pips.
  • #538
  • Jun 5, 2008 7:40pm Jun 5, 2008 7:40pm
Up 100 points on EUR/USD and up 30 on GBP/USD, will most likely close these before friday.
  • #539
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:55pm Jun 5, 2008 8:55pm
Hi everyone, I have been getting many PM's this week. Thank you for the support and interest in the thread.

For any traders with any questions out there about what goes on in the thread, please post them in the thread so others can have a chance to respond and learn. Also please read the thread carefully; many of the questions I have been getting have already been posted or discussed several times in here.

Only through your own desire to learn and dilligence are you going to become a successful trader.

I'm sorry to have to say this but I just simply haven't had the time to respond to many of the requests I have been getting. I'd like to help who I can and when I can but "can" is the key word. There is only so much I can do. Thank you!!!
  • #540
  • Edited 11:00pm Jun 5, 2008 10:28pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting pastork
brv did u mean i shud go short on usd/jpy on 106.14, pls clarify cos there is strong resisitance on 106.38, wat shud i do.thanks
Pastork - you made a good point here without me having to say anything.

You basically called the top on USD/JPY today without me having to say anything today, before it happened.

I just want to say trust your own judgement, because you seem to have it together. I wasn't paying attention to the thread when this happened, but either way you made a solid call.

Repetition will build your confidence.

I was hoping to catch the trend reversal so I went in earlier than the exhaustion of the trend. Thats just how I do it sometimes. If it doesnt work out, my stop is already set to breakeven, and I look for the next level.

Pastork if you have some charts or have questions on some levels please post and we can go over them.
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