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  • #461
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:44am Jun 4, 2008 3:44am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5484

If EUR has the ability to get back up here at some point, I'm looking for continuation of the downtrend. This level has been by far the strongest hold as of recent, but price needs to get above 1.5461. As I write its hovering it. Targeting 1.5300 - 1.5290, which is also worth a fade when price gets down there. 1.5520 is the next level higher, and is also the .50 retracement, but price will have a very hard time breaking through these lows without some sort of strong stimulus.

Some edits: Price got through 1.5461; expecting a volatile trading session later tonight and tomorrow. The initial fade on this level will provide some pips, but if it gets broken, look for the 5520 level 35 pips higher.

Based on both fundamental and technical outlook the trend on this pair is obviously down. There might be some resetting of positions though based on today's spike, forcing price up further, particularly in the Asia session. Just a heads up.

Also this week in general has some more typhoons ahead. Nonfarm payrolls, etc., and the ton of other major events across nearly every pair this week. Use caution, be smart, think. And dont forget to take profits and get paid for what you spend so much time doing.
Price hit 1.5483, 1 pip away from what I posted but still in the relevant range as discussed in earlier posts. +21 from that level so far.
  • #462
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:26am Jun 4, 2008 4:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5484

If EUR has the ability to get back up here at some point, I'm looking for continuation of the downtrend. This level has been by far the strongest hold as of recent, but price needs to get above 1.5461. As I write its hovering it. Targeting 1.5300 - 1.5290, which is also worth a fade when price gets down there. 1.5520 is the next level higher, and is also the .50 retracement, but price will have a very hard time breaking through these lows without some sort of strong stimulus.

Some edits: Price got through 1.5461; expecting a volatile trading session later tonight and tomorrow. The initial fade on this level will provide some pips, but if it gets broken, look for the 5520 level 35 pips higher.

Based on both fundamental and technical outlook the trend on this pair is obviously down. There might be some resetting of positions though based on today's spike, forcing price up further, particularly in the Asia session. Just a heads up.

Also this week in general has some more typhoons ahead. Nonfarm payrolls, etc., and the ton of other major events across nearly every pair this week. Use caution, be smart, think. And dont forget to take profits and get paid for what you spend so much time doing.
Retail sales had a hand in this one moving me down to about +46 pips tops. Almost got stopped out but barely made spread. So decent so far. and holding with partial off.
  • #463
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:27am Jun 4, 2008 4:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 104.71 - 104.66

I'm not sure if I'm wasting my breath on this one, but this is the no brainer setup for this pair. When I say wasting my breath because I'm uncertain to price getting back down there. It has to basically take out todays spike, which is unlikely anytime in the near future. But here it is.
Only +22 from 66 so far max but still hanging in there.
  • #464
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:58am Jun 4, 2008 4:58am
Smell a short here. S/L above pin and 1st target 61.8 2nd target the 50 fib level. Move S/L to break even should 1st target be hit.
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Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #465
  • Jun 4, 2008 5:46am Jun 4, 2008 5:46am
Hi BRV,
1. Thanks for the great threads and knowledge sharing.
2. I need a tip from from an experienced trader like you - what SL do you use ? I assume it is different for long / short term SR, but just as a thumb rule, what should it be ?
Earlier today, a long trade was triggered. It could be a very successful, but It was a loser due to a 20 pips SL.
Thanks,
Dani M
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  • #466
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:41pm Jun 4, 2008 1:41pm
Shorting GBP/USD @ 1.9600 looks good.

What do you think?
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  • #467
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:36pm Jun 4, 2008 3:36pm
Quoting bodra
Shorting GBP/USD @ 1.9600 looks good.

What do you think?
Yeah I was looking at the last night actually. Only problem here is to discern the exact level to get in. There are multiple support areas in the range from 9600 up to 9624. Its not a normal case actually because of the choppy price action up there. Normall just go short at 9600, but the threat of it overshooting is there. Maybe a little now, little later? Put it on and just watch it like a hawk and get out if anything unexpected happens would be my only suggestion.
  • #468
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:47pm Jun 4, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting dan_mir
Hi BRV,
1. Thanks for the great threads and knowledge sharing.
2. I need a tip from from an experienced trader like you - what SL do you use ? I assume it is different for long / short term SR, but just as a thumb rule, what should it be ?
Earlier today, a long trade was triggered. It could be a very successful, but It was a loser due to a 20 pips SL.
Thanks,
Dani M
Hey Dan, Typically I start with a s/l up at the next level of support or resistance, because if the market overshoots, I have a shot at recovery if the next level holds, but not past it, and not in fast moving markets. Trading like this you should see price turning within 0 to 10 pips. If not go back and reevaluate the level for entering a trade and find out what the rest of the market is looking at that you missed.

It depends on how you manage your risk and what you're willing to lose on each trade. So your position size is going to be contingent on your s/l for that reason. A 20 pip s/l on both of the trades posted here from last night for example would have been plenty. JPY overshot a little more than expected but not by much, EUR turned on the dime. So its a comfort level or risk tolerance, finding the best entries, etc. Hope this helps.
  • #469
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:51pm Jun 4, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting Mary Pippins
Smell a short here. S/L above pin and 1st target 61.8 2nd target the 50 fib level. Move S/L to break even should 1st target be hit.
MaryP where'd you run off to haven't seen you in a while! Me and another trader were chatting last night and actually took this trade from 24 - 30; it showed a good amount of stalling on it but only pulled back to the .50 retracement before hauling back up there. Nice catch. Looking at a chart to the left you can see why we zoned in on the area. Also as you said a it was a .618 ret.

In my own judgement I think the next area is 1.0200 - 1.0206 to sell. Ideas anyone?
  • #470
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:55pm Jun 4, 2008 3:55pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5484

If EUR has the ability to get back up here at some point, I'm looking for continuation of the downtrend. This level has been by far the strongest hold as of recent, but price needs to get above 1.5461. As I write its hovering it. Targeting 1.5300 - 1.5290, which is also worth a fade when price gets down there. 1.5520 is the next level higher, and is also the .50 retracement, but price will have a very hard time breaking through these lows without some sort of strong stimulus.

Some edits: Price got through 1.5461; expecting a volatile trading session later tonight and tomorrow. The initial fade on this level will provide some pips, but if it gets broken, look for the 5520 level 35 pips higher.

Based on both fundamental and technical outlook the trend on this pair is obviously down. There might be some resetting of positions though based on today's spike, forcing price up further, particularly in the Asia session. Just a heads up.

Also this week in general has some more typhoons ahead. Nonfarm payrolls, etc., and the ton of other major events across nearly every pair this week. Use caution, be smart, think. And dont forget to take profits and get paid for what you spend so much time doing.
Just to recap, +60 pips max on this so far.

I'm holding some for a nosedive but also prepared to get stopped out at around entry and look higher if things change.
  • #471
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:56pm Jun 4, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 104.71 - 104.66

I'm not sure if I'm wasting my breath on this one, but this is the no brainer setup for this pair. When I say wasting my breath because I'm uncertain to price getting back down there. It has to basically take out todays spike, which is unlikely anytime in the near future. But here it is.
+71 pips if entered at 104.66. Seeing if it can continue, but closed most of it already.
  • #472
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:07pm Jun 4, 2008 4:07pm
Billy Ray, did you take the NZD long at 7724 after the rate announcement? Just wondering because you said you try to stay out at big news events, but this one seemed to take the price right down to your target, and it's hanging around there right now.
  • #473
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:10pm Jun 4, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting finswin56
Billy Ray, did you take the NZD long at 7724 after the rate announcement? Just wondering because you said you try to stay out at big news events, but this one seemed to take the price right down to your target, and it's hanging around there right now.
No. Anything related to interest rates I advise strongly to stay far away from.

Many times price will react to these levels after news announcements if they are a decent length away from them to begin with and the news os nothing too mind blowing.

But interest rates, monetary policy, etc. is a no no. Market always runs like mad on these things.
  • #474
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:12pm Jun 4, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
No. Anything related to interest rates I advise strongly to stay far away from.
Cool. That's what I was figuring. Interest rates seem to have no regard for S/R.

EDIT: Shouldn't this have a pretty decent retrace though with no rate cut and only dovish language?
  • #475
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:22pm Jun 4, 2008 4:22pm
FYI this trade that never got hit from a few weeks back could be good for some cash on a move lower on EUR. Just a heads up. 1.5365 looks to be the magic number.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=15
  • #476
  • Edited 4:40pm Jun 4, 2008 4:30pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long NZD/USD 0.7725 area

This is going to be a countertrend trade, much like the AUD trade above, so as usual expectations are a little lower in terms of continuation/trend reversal. This level has held up over a long period of time, and its also a .50 retracement on the last wave up.
As just discussed, the monetary policy statement came out made this trade a bad idea to get into. A pullback up to .7769 - 80 could offer a safe opportunity to sell if anyone is interested. 80 is the stronger level historically, but 69 is the local low.
  • #477
  • Jun 4, 2008 6:34pm Jun 4, 2008 6:34pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
MaryP where'd you run off to haven't seen you in a while! Me and another trader were chatting last night and actually took this trade from 24 - 30; it showed a good amount of stalling on it but only pulled back to the .50 retracement before hauling back up there. Nice catch. Looking at a chart to the left you can see why we zoned in on the area. Also as you said a it was a .618 ret.

In my own judgement I think the next area is 1.0200 - 1.0206 to sell. Ideas anyone?
Hey Billy Ray,

I was always around since this is my home now just kept a bit quiet posting wise only to be slapped right into my mouth when I finally made a call.
Because I actually did short that pin at 1.100 just to get my S/L smacked after a very brief period of a few pips in the green.

The thing that startles me is that the 50 and 61.8 fib level I called today actually weren't 50 and 61.8 fib levels yesterday when you talked about it with the other trader.
I mean ok if you draw a line at the 1.025 area you could say there's loads of S/R but then again same counts for other levels e.g. .9980 (which later became my 50 fib level).
Why for example didn't you short one candle before it reached the 1.0025 on the 4H chart at the .9980 area yesterday? Would have seemd like a reasonable decision at the time or am I missing something?

In other words what made you not take the short at .9980 and what made you consider the one at 1.0025 a good trade?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #478
  • Jun 4, 2008 7:12pm Jun 4, 2008 7:12pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
No. Anything related to interest rates I advise strongly to stay far away from.

Many times price will react to these levels after news announcements if they are a decent length away from them to begin with and the news os nothing too mind blowing.

But interest rates, monetary policy, etc. is a no no. Market always runs like mad on these things.
Hey Billy,

Fantastic thread!
I was wondering how long you wait after announcements to take trades, from the statement I've quoted.

Thanks!
  • #479
  • Jun 4, 2008 8:26pm Jun 4, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting Mary Pippins
Hey Billy Ray,

I was always around since this is my home now just kept a bit quiet posting wise only to be slapped right into my mouth when I finally made a call.
Because I actually did short that pin at 1.100 just to get my S/L smacked after a very brief period of a few pips in the green.

The thing that startles me is that the 50 and 61.8 fib level I called today actually weren't 50 and 61.8 fib levels yesterday when you talked about it with the other trader.
I mean ok if you draw a line at the 1.025 area you could say there's loads of S/R but then again same counts for other levels e.g. .9980 (which later became my 50 fib level).
Why for example didn't you short one candle before it reached the 1.0025 on the 4H chart at the .9980 area yesterday? Would have seemd like a reasonable decision at the time or am I missing something?

In other words what made you not take the short at .9980 and what made you consider the one at 1.0025 a good trade?
Hahaha, no sweat but we're not into slapping around here. This is an anti-slap thread, dedicated to building brains only.

Here's some of what we were looking at for you to get an idea. I tried to circle some of the major points; the retracement was from the last major wave up....also if you zoom in on an hourly you can see some things that arent on here over time. Regardless we were off by about 9 pips or so. Oh well....sometimes too close to call. But hope this helps.

Also looking at this chart, 1.0219 looks to be about the next best place for a sell. But still contemplating. Next couple of days are flooded with big news events for the loonie.
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  • #480
  • Edited 9:06pm Jun 4, 2008 8:48pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5484

If EUR has the ability to get back up here at some point, I'm looking for continuation of the downtrend. This level has been by far the strongest hold as of recent, but price needs to get above 1.5461. As I write its hovering it. Targeting 1.5300 - 1.5290, which is also worth a fade when price gets down there. 1.5520 is the next level higher, and is also the .50 retracement, but price will have a very hard time breaking through these lows without some sort of strong stimulus.

Some edits: Price got through 1.5461; expecting a volatile trading session later tonight and tomorrow. The initial fade on this level will provide some pips, but if it gets broken, look for the 5520 level 35 pips higher.

Based on both fundamental and technical outlook the trend on this pair is obviously down. There might be some resetting of positions though based on today's spike, forcing price up further, particularly in the Asia session. Just a heads up.

Also this week in general has some more typhoons ahead. Nonfarm payrolls, etc., and the ton of other major events across nearly every pair this week. Use caution, be smart, think. And dont forget to take profits and get paid for what you spend so much time doing.
+99 pips so far from this level. Nice solid trade working out as planned.

The next level to watch for a buy was the one I posted a few posts back from a couple weeks ago. Right now bouncing off of 1.5394/2 resistance; expecting it to go back up to 1.5410-19 before another move down 50 pips or so, but could get a push a little sooner. Lots of selling pressure right now.
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