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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,321
  • Jun 4, 2008 8:54am Jun 4, 2008 8:54am
Quoting Palmer
I did see some of that but can't remember if that was on the 5min or 4hr thread...which post # was it? How's your uncle by the way?
And as for numbers - it might be this or this post. Just one small remark - I'm sure that you all understand that but just maybe for those who haven't read those posts - those results were got on my statistics so they may not be 100% correct for other (for ex., more experienced) traders with their own activities of profits and losses.
  • #15,322
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:01am Jun 4, 2008 9:01am
Thanks Yorik. If there is one take home lesson about profits...you'll never go broke taking one. It's hard to drive that home with some people but capital preservation is staying power. Even the smallest profit helps. A larger sample size is always better so I'm hoping that in time your analysis with this will continue. Thanks again.
  • #15,323
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:04am Jun 4, 2008 9:04am
Quoting Yorik
And as for numbers - it might be this or this post. Just one small remark - I'm sure that you all understand that but just maybe for those who haven't read those posts - those results were got on my statistics so they may not be 100% correct for other (for ex., more experienced) traders with their own activities of profits and losses.
Yorik, just to back you up I did my own research of my trades and came to similar conclusions, sorry got not graphs etc to post but I worked out my best profit margin came from taking 1:1 risk/reward with stops less than 50 pips and taking 100% on target.

In the last 3 months I think there was only one trade that really made a difference from holding open and this was around 300 pips. But even then it still worked out better closing early.

I want to research some more closing out % and working out if there is a "sweet point". Not sure when I will get time but if I do I will post results, in the mean time I am closing 100% of trades at the first and only TP.
  • #15,324
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:10am Jun 4, 2008 9:10am
Quoting Happy68
Any comments?
I see a support level at 1.5428

I you go long countertrend, then I suggest your SL be at 1.5391
  • #15,325
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:26am Jun 4, 2008 9:26am
Apart from the trade I took on Monday I haven't taken any others this week. I almost count tomorrow and Friday out because of the rates decision and NFP.
  • #15,326
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:28am Jun 4, 2008 9:28am
Quoting fxfact
I see a support level at 1.5428

I you go long countertrend, then I suggest your SL be at 1.5391
I really don't like the CT here, I didn't take it for a number of reasons. I also will not take the TC that is currently forming unless it breaks out on the down side. I can't see this happening in the next couple of hours left in my trading day.
  • #15,327
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:33am Jun 4, 2008 9:33am
i have a sell signal in my mig platform for eu .what u think ?is this a good one?i didnt sell because of a lower TL in H1 and price is still ranging befor a break out
  • #15,328
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:39am Jun 4, 2008 9:39am
EU finally has another failer TC signal. I haven't enter it but in a demo trade. See three chart below
There is an important middle black trend line
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There are two important fib line retrace convegence
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the middle black line plays an important role in eu's trend. Price has lots of probablility to support by it to form a HL. And it also can crack this line to lower. Mature trader should enter a few lots before 16:00 and wait for break and retrace to enter his other lots, or just wait price overcomes it successfully and wait for retrace to enter
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,329
  • Jun 4, 2008 9:43am Jun 4, 2008 9:43am
You see, the rhythm is not good. So I remember Phillip once said, before important trend line, he often wait for break and confirm it, then choose its retrace to enter. This is a conservative way, but I think a mature trader should follow. Not to gamble break and don't be losing is first.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,330
  • Jun 4, 2008 10:01am Jun 4, 2008 10:01am
Honestly, this is not a fail TC trade yet. The sl should be set at 1.5480 according to Phillip's strategy, thus it hasn't been touched yet. If there is a tail forms, it may has high probablity to crack the trend line
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,331
  • Jun 4, 2008 10:11am Jun 4, 2008 10:11am
Quoting Yorik
And as for numbers - it might be this or this post. Just one small remark - I'm sure that you all understand that but just maybe for those who haven't read those posts - those results were got on my statistics so they may not be 100% correct for other (for ex., more experienced) traders with their own activities of profits and losses.
I still want to thank you for that number crunching you did with all the tables. Surely is some handy info to have. Helps to make up your mind and work a strategy with stats that has been tested. Might not be 100% but they are very handy as my backtest results are not 100% either but it gives a good view.
Thanks again
  • #15,332
  • Jun 4, 2008 10:23am Jun 4, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Palmer
hey bsh:

I got out with just a few on that last lot. There will be another cow to milk one day I believe. I recall a conversation I had with Ryanmcd concerning when you have a position that is up say 100 pips or so, this is on the 4hr, that more than likely that position will start to come back down to even. I can't count how many times that I had a position open for 70, 80...pips thinking that this thing is going to take off when in fact it eventually comes back down to earth. That 866 pip run I had just happened to line up when oil was really starting to take off, luck was on my side. Either way, it all comes back down to the same thing, when the money is on the table, take it. If you're up 70 or 80 on a lot trail it 20 behind or something or technically trail it, just to make sure you take something home..

Charts are still digesting that move yesterday, even the 5min looks undecided. Lot's of red flags today too...
I have been working on money management a lot as of late. What I am doing now is using say 2% risk. I use the past 4hr bar as how many pips I am going to risk. So if the past bar is 40 pips then my 1st target is 40 pips and after I close 1/2 at 40 I put my stop to cost. After that I got for 60-80. My last trade I risked 35, closed the 1st on at 45 last one at 111, so I risked 2% and made over 5%. With my broker I can enter a unit amount so I can always trade that 2% so if the range is 30 pips or 130 I trade the same risk, it's just less money per pip but the same %. I hope this helps and I have been doing well using this for money management.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #15,333
  • Jun 4, 2008 10:26am Jun 4, 2008 10:26am
Quoting ejiexe
Let watch GU closely. TC on the way on 00:00hr candle. If it gives TC with that tail emotion on the 89sma which will ofcourse close below 89sma, that is high probalility trade. Philip will be happy if we take this trade.

Though, I took 1Hr early entry short @ 1.9657 SL @ 1.9687. TP1 @ 1.9627 and trail the other lot. Pip well.



Please where is Dona. We really miss her. What about Ryn. It will be good for new comers to hear from you.

I am still around, not really trading the macd anymore just trading pure price action with no indicators Been doing well still on the 4hr. I think once you look at this stuff enough you know where the macd is as well as all the other stuff. I applied the James16 Pinbar stuff with the macd for direction and seem to be doing well. To be honest all of this stuff works it's how you see the market.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #15,334
  • Edited 10:54am Jun 4, 2008 10:38am | Edited 10:54am
Info

Edit
If there is enough room after the signal candle to the bottom of the consolidation to make R:R >=1 then you can take the odds on.
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 04 June2008.zip   820 KB | 1,354 downloads
  • #15,335
  • Jun 4, 2008 11:10am Jun 4, 2008 11:10am
Hi everyone, Im also new to this thread, but as ive been going through the lessons I find it more helpful every time, Ive been trading 4 hour charts for a while and this system realy helps my method. Its great to finaly find a thread so suportive and uninterested.

Thanks to Phillip and every other participating member.

One q? how can I configure the time zone in the mt4 to look at the same graphs as everyone?

Good pips from Mexico!
  • #15,336
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:09pm Jun 4, 2008 1:09pm
Thank you, Phillip, for the info on the current situation on EURUSD (I was not sure to the end as for the proper ways to handle it and so was a bit hesitating) as well as for mentioning my modest results! It's very encouraging. And it's very pleasant for me to know that those materials could be of some use for somebody besides myself.

By the way, one more nice thing that may help with understanding of that we are actually playing with probabilities - Equity curve simulator (sorry if that may be not new). One can play with different % of profits (Win. probability) and R:R-ratio and see possible results. I really got several useful conclusions after playing with it.

p.s. this simulator is on JavaScript, so it whould be On if you want to work with it.
  • #15,337
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:11pm Jun 4, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting MxPips
Hi everyone, Im also new to this thread, but as ive been going through the lessons I find it more helpful every time, Ive been trading 4 hour charts for a while and this system realy helps my method. Its great to finaly find a thread so suportive and uninterested.

Thanks to Phillip and every other participating member.

One q? how can I configure the time zone in the mt4 to look at the same graphs as everyone?

Good pips from Mexico!
The chart time is all dependent on your broker and can't be changed. You may get signals before/after someone else but it all comes out even in the end. Go back over some of your historical charts and you'll see plenty of signals based on your broker time...
  • #15,338
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:23pm Jun 4, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting MxPips
...
One q? how can I configure the time zone in the mt4 to look at the same graphs as everyone?
Hi, MxPips.

Timezone on your charts is determined server-side (depends on the broker you are using and the server your MT downloads the quotes) and MT4 has no instruments to change it. It's possible to get charts of a different timezone on your own platform using special scripts (similar to period converter script) but they'll be not in real time, or something close to what needed with indicators like this, but all these methods are not full-fledged.

So the simpliest way is to download a platform from a broker of the needed timezone (for ex., MIG's or Alpari's MetaTraders will give you charts with GMT+1).

In the end, and I'll quote earlier posts, after enough (several dozens) of trades, made in different timezones (with equal trading skill) the results tend to be quite similar, so it may be a question if that is really so needed. But it's you that decide.

Edit: ups Palmer was quicker
  • #15,339
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:37pm Jun 4, 2008 1:37pm
Great, thanks Palmer and Yorik. And youre right Yorik, even though the candles sometimes look different, when important patterns occur they have the same effect on all time zones. Graphs just look a bit different in my opinion.
  • #15,340
  • Jun 4, 2008 2:40pm Jun 4, 2008 2:40pm
Good evening to all active readers here.Is the previous candle marked with X is a Hanging Man and it is some kind of filter for masd to take short after closing the last candle?If it is a Hanging Man is it most of the time starting down trend?Thank you in advance.

http://www.forexfactory.com/c:/eurusd030620082216.gif
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