No Brainer Trades | Page 22 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #421
  • May 30, 2008 3:52am May 30, 2008 3:52am
Quoting piptornado
i went short from 15480. had a feeling so I protected 10 pips with a stop, and price came back and knocked me out with my 10 pips.
I went back short at 15479> let's see how it plays out.
Don't know if I would get in right now since eurozone cpi news coming out in a few minutes.
Expected the unexpected
  • #422
  • May 30, 2008 4:05am May 30, 2008 4:05am
Quoting scyang
Don't know if I would get in right now since eurozone cpi news coming out in a few minutes.
I thought it would head down and I could get out before the news with a few pips. Mistake. Got stopped out. Had to put a tight SL in case the news were crazy good for Eur.
  • #423
  • May 30, 2008 4:28am May 30, 2008 4:28am
Got a couple 10-15 pip bounces and then -8. Needless to say Im watching the Euro. We may get a sell higher up but I am flat for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu052908de.gif Size: 25 KB
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #424
  • May 30, 2008 6:27am May 30, 2008 6:27am
[quote=bigplans47;2027998]Thanks Paj, but when I do that I get a gif file that I can only preview with the memory hog adobe and the preview is very blurry. Do you know how to make the screen shot a jpeg (so I can easily crop it in picasa2)?

Thats what I save mine as (gif), it does look unclear but if you click on the posted chart after, then click once to zoom in it seems ok. not sure how the others do it?

Paj
  • #425
  • Jun 2, 2008 3:30am Jun 2, 2008 3:30am
Nice short entry available here just above the 1.9734 level on Cable, when price went below it then popped back up to re-test the level...

Had you gone short around 1.9742 on this re-test, it would have been worth over 130 PIPs so far.

1.9742 is almost exactly to the PIP the 50% Fibo retracement level from the previous run-down.
.
Attached Image
  • #426
  • Edited 6:19am Jun 2, 2008 5:27am | Edited 6:19am
Hi FF, BillyRayValentine do you ever trade the bounces when you see price is not going to break (follow through the break) the S/R line? For example the GBP/USD in the chart above.(sorry loudiniii-it's a good example)

Thanks,
bigplans47

EDIT: I just want to clarify my question about trading bounces-I mean at the time of the break only, not by looking at the price hours later
  • #427
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:12am Jun 2, 2008 6:12am
Quoting bigplans47
Hi FF, BillyRayValentine do you ever trade the bounces when you see price is not going to break (follow through the break) the S/R line? For example the GBP/USD in the chart above.(sorry loudiniii-it's a good example)

Thanks,
bigplans47
Billy Ray, Expanding on BigPlans question, do you ever see a pattern that increases the odds of a bounce or a breakthrough of the S/R lines?
Thanks,
JTDT777
Balance in Everything
  • #428
  • Edited 6:33am Jun 2, 2008 6:24am | Edited 6:33am
.
The magic 50% Fibo level does it again... this morning on the Euro.

1.5522 is a Support / Resistance level on the chart.

1.5514, nearby, is the 50% Fibo level of the last run-up.

Go long around 1.5520 and 40+ PIPs come for free.

Where does it stop ?

You guessed it ... at 1.5564, the 50% Fibo level of the larger run-up.

50 is a magic number, as BRV tells us.

Very similar picture this morning on the Swissie and the DJ.

(PP = 50% Pivot Point on my Fibo, SP = Swing Point High / Low, RS = 19.1% / 80.9% Resistance / Support, DZ = 38.2% / 61.8% Decision Zone)
.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro example Monday 2 June.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #429
  • Edited 1:19pm Jun 2, 2008 11:52am | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 104.38 - 104.33

On an intraday basis, this level should pay off in normal market conditions. I'm uncertain as to its continuation though. From a technical perspective, I'm still long dollar biased. Fundamentally not as much. Yen is in a funnel right now waiting for a breakout. If the next move is up, the strongest levels of resistance are appx. 105.45 to 105.59.
Hi everyone; hope you had a good weekend. For anyone following this, news came out in the US equity markets that had a minor negative affect on the dollar. The most this gave out so far was +14 from the upper level, +19 from the bottom of the range. Price went as low as 104.03; depending where you put/how you manage stop losses you might or might not have taken any loss if you were looking to trade. I'm still bullish. On an intraday basis, more support can be found in the 103.90 area if price moves lower. Its also a .618 retracement zone.

And FYI price need to break 104.30 upside to signify a further push favoring the dollar; that's how these things go (support turning into resistance). When you see it it usually means things are going to keep on heading up to the next level, which I believe to be the case here. We'll see. I still want to target 104.95, either on a push lower or from here.

So to average +16 pips max so far conservatively.
  • #430
  • Edited 1:37pm Jun 2, 2008 1:18pm | Edited 1:37pm
Another trade I'm currently in is USDCAD short at 1.0024.

Take a look at its historical significance on a chart and you'll see why. Its also a minor retracement. These lower retracements I am not so much a fan of but if there is a hard push on a currency like this pair today, and ONLY if they coincide with major levels its usually a good indication of a turn. The outlook on this trade is shorter lived, targeting .9980. If you take another look at an hourly chart you will see why. Hopefully you guys are getting this! (And hopefully this level sticks! Consolidation central right now.) Also strong resistance 16 pips higher at around the 40 range, so SL set accordingly.
  • #431
  • Jun 2, 2008 3:12pm Jun 2, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 104.38 - 104.33

On an intraday basis, this level should pay off in normal market conditions. I'm uncertain as to its continuation though. From a technical perspective, I'm still long dollar biased. Fundamentally not as much. Yen is in a funnel right now waiting for a breakout. If the next move is up, the strongest levels of resistance are appx. 105.45 to 105.59.
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi everyone; hope you had a good weekend. For anyone following this, news came out in the US equity markets that had a minor negative affect on the dollar. The most this gave out so far was +14 from the upper level, +19 from the bottom of the range. Price went as low as 104.03; depending where you put/how you manage stop losses you might or might not have taken any loss if you were looking to trade. I'm still bullish. On an intraday basis, more support can be found in the 103.90 area if price moves lower. Its also a .618 retracement zone.

And FYI price need to break 104.30 upside to signify a further push favoring the dollar; that's how these things go (support turning into resistance). When you see it it usually means things are going to keep on heading up to the next level, which I believe to be the case here. We'll see. I still want to target 104.95, either on a push lower or from here.

So to average +16 pips max so far conservatively.
This trade seems to be working out, but not according to original plan. With a super tight SL you might have been tapped out. I closed a portion of this and holding onto the rest until that target gets hit, which hopefully wont take too much time. Off of the original level its gone up about +22 pips so far so I'm seeing to hold for now. The US equity news seems to be short lived and the market picked back up where it left off, so going to wait it out. There are a couple of obstacles (resistance levels) in the way of this reaching the target but I dont have reason to believe they will stop price on the way up as they have not shown a lot of strength in recent times.
  • #432
  • Jun 3, 2008 6:38am Jun 3, 2008 6:38am
Hey B. Ray!

Could not sleep earlier this morning so instead of watching TV I decided to go to the Billy Ray school of S/R.
Put in Buy Limit on U/J at 103.95 ( It was hovering around 104.18 at the time.)Put in stop at 103.75 and TP at 104.45. Went back to bed. Just woke with 50 Pip win!!!
Great way to start the day!
Thanks for your teaching. Keep those " No Brainers" Coming.

GS
  • #433
  • Jun 3, 2008 10:22am Jun 3, 2008 10:22am
Quoting bigplans47
Hi FF, BillyRayValentine do you ever trade the bounces when you see price is not going to break (follow through the break) the S/R line? For example the GBP/USD in the chart above.(sorry loudiniii-it's a good example)

Thanks,
bigplans47

EDIT: I just want to clarify my question about trading bounces-I mean at the time of the break only, not by looking at the price hours later
Hi Bigplans, yeah I do, but usually only in fast moving markets. Many times there will be false breakouts, especially on the cross ccy pairs. Safest thing to do is wait for the hourly close above or below the level and trade it till the next level gets hit.
  • #434
  • Jun 3, 2008 10:23am Jun 3, 2008 10:23am
Quoting jtdt777
Billy Ray, Expanding on BigPlans question, do you ever see a pattern that increases the odds of a bounce or a breakthrough of the S/R lines?
Thanks,
JTDT777
Sometimes yes but rarely. Head and shoulders, etc, could prove short term busts. I would encourage anyone to learn basic chart patterns, though I dont typically use them as confirmation to enter trades, but more to stay out of trades.
  • #435
  • Jun 3, 2008 10:24am Jun 3, 2008 10:24am
Quoting inforthepips
Hey B. Ray!

Could not sleep earlier this morning so instead of watching TV I decided to go to the Billy Ray school of S/R.
Put in Buy Limit on U/J at 103.95 ( It was hovering around 104.18 at the time.)Put in stop at 103.75 and TP at 104.45. Went back to bed. Just woke with 50 Pip win!!!
Great way to start the day!
Thanks for your teaching. Keep those " No Brainers" Coming.

GS
Niiiiiiiiice......hope you held onto that one you'de be rolling in over +160 pips on the pair for the day!
  • #436
  • Edited 2:07pm Jun 3, 2008 10:55am | Edited 2:07pm
Short EUR/USD 1.5484

If EUR has the ability to get back up here at some point, I'm looking for continuation of the downtrend. This level has been by far the strongest hold as of recent, but price needs to get above 1.5461. As I write its hovering it. Targeting 1.5300 - 1.5290, which is also worth a fade when price gets down there. 1.5520 is the next level higher, and is also the .50 retracement, but price will have a very hard time breaking through these lows without some sort of strong stimulus.

Some edits: Price got through 1.5461; expecting a volatile trading session later tonight and tomorrow. The initial fade on this level will provide some pips, but if it gets broken, look for the 5520 level 35 pips higher.

Based on both fundamental and technical outlook the trend on this pair is obviously down. There might be some resetting of positions though based on today's spike, forcing price up further, particularly in the Asia session. Just a heads up.

Also this week in general has some more typhoons ahead. Nonfarm payrolls, etc., and the ton of other major events across nearly every pair this week. Use caution, be smart, think. And dont forget to take profits and get paid for what you spend so much time doing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #437
  • Edited 5:07pm Jun 3, 2008 11:10am | Edited 5:07pm
Long USD/JPY 104.71 - 104.66

I'm not sure if I'm wasting my breath on this one, but this is the no brainer setup for this pair. When I say wasting my breath because I'm uncertain to price getting back down there. It has to basically take out todays spike, which is unlikely anytime in the near future. But here it is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #438
  • Jun 3, 2008 1:30pm Jun 3, 2008 1:30pm
I'm still very new to trading, but this type of trading strategy really appeals to me. At least it makes the most sense to my ignorance. Thanks Billy Ray!

Can you tell me what you think about this Long setup that I think I see for CAD/JPY at 103.81?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #439
  • Jun 3, 2008 1:40pm Jun 3, 2008 1:40pm
Quoting finswin56
I'm still very new to trading, but this type of trading strategy really appeals to me. At least it makes the most sense to my ignorance. Thanks Billy Ray!

Can you tell me what you think about this Long setup that I think I see for CAD/JPY at 103.81?
Sure it looks good and I've been watching it but price keeps using that level as a magnet. If JPY gets the push I believe it will you should be fine. Ideally, the first or second hit on that level would have been the one to get a hold of. The more it gets pounded, the less likelihood of it holding. It could still be good based on current conditions, but again over time probablility generally decreases. Its a rare case because its been hit 3 times in the last few days. Hope this helps somewhat.
  • #440
  • Jun 3, 2008 1:53pm Jun 3, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Sure it looks good and I've been watching it but price keeps using that level as a magnet. If JPY gets the push I believe it will you should be fine. Ideally, the first or second hit on that level would have been the one to get a hold of. The more it gets pounded, the less likelihood of it holding. It could still be good based on current conditions, but again over time probablility generally decreases. Its a rare case because its been hit 3 times in the last few days. Hope this helps somewhat.
Absolutely, and thank you.

I'm just trying to observe and learn how to distinguish which S/R levels I should be targeting. Such a simple idea can be turned into something confusing by a new trader like me.
37 traders viewing now