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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #61
  • Jan 30, 2007 10:59am Jan 30, 2007 10:59am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Hello Phillip,

Just thinking more about your system and wondering if news affects your system at all? By looking at the 4hr charts, you cover a lot of time and times when some major news comes out. So on the days news comes out, would you stay out of trades? Increase or decrease your stoplosses and pip targets? Tomorrow the US interest rate statement comes out, so if there was a good trade setup happening tonight on one of the pairs would you want to take it or skip it and wait for the news tomorrow?

Thanks!

p.s. So far I have used your system for two demo trades and gotten 50 and 25pips. Currently have some other trades open waiting to see how they turn out. Also, testing it on the USD/JPY pair to see how that works. Looks good so far. If anyone else is testing other pairs, please post your findings!

As you can see in the samples that it seems that most of the time the MACD gives a positive signal before news comes out. And then I dont mean minutes before it. It will give it some time earlier. The big ones already knows before the news. I will set stoplosses at different levels to minimize the risk and yet to take advantage of the move should it go in my favour.
Inrerest rates and farm payrolls is always dicy and I prefer to close deals before that.
  • #62
  • Jan 30, 2007 11:06am Jan 30, 2007 11:06am
Quoting DireXiv
I'm definietly interested.... I used the MACD for awhile, but moved away from it lately on other systems I'm testing. I walked through you trades and really do see what you need for entry most of the time, and the exits look quite good as well.

Thank you very much for showing us this in such great detail!

I do have one question - It seems as if sometimes when I would start to see a round and take the trade, it would possibly turn as a heisitation and continue on as a continuation signal. How do you combat that?

Thanks!
It all depends on the stoploss size as well as the profit size. If we are in an uptrend and the MACD makes a round top it means we are going against the trend. Therefore our profit target is to the 21EMA or thereabout. If the reward is worth the risk take it otherwise wait for the next signal which might be the continuation one.
  • #63
  • Jan 30, 2007 11:42am Jan 30, 2007 11:42am
From a previous post and answer from you, I was thinking the Ma's were too crowded also... so the signal is minimal and the profit could be very small if any. That is a good sign, for that particular position.

I guess this just like any other, will take some time to master the MACD signals too.

On the GBP/USD, the MACD shows a potential bounce off zero or a short stint above zero and then if it breaks would be a continuation of a short trade. Are the ma's too close on that one to make a trade too?

I think it would be great if you could continue on this thread posting trades you are considering if you could (maybe you don't want to give away too much? ) I very much like the 4 hour setup for my other daily acitivities too along with the volatility being somewhat taken out by the longer time frame I use to.

Thanks!


Quoting Phillip Nel
I am glad you asked that question. If you take the round top/bottom against the trend you must know that you profit target is going to be to the 21EMA and if there is not enough room you must wait for the next signal. Lets take todays signal on the EurUsd. It give a nice rond top. Where are R/S. It found it against the trendline as well as the 89SMA. We had a shooting star????? which is in doubt by me. So I am not sure as to the direction really. We are around to many MA's. I will rather wait for the true direction. Patients is very important.
Should it goes below zero that I will take on.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #64
  • Edited 12:06pm Jan 30, 2007 11:54am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting DireXiv
From a previous post and answer from you, I was thinking the Ma's were too crowded also... so the signal is minimal and the profit could be very small if any. That is a good sign, for that particular position.

I guess this just like any other, will take some time to master the MACD signals too.

On the GBP/USD, the MACD shows a potential bounce off zero or a short stint above zero and then if it breaks would be a continuation of a short trade. Are the ma's too close on that one to make a trade too?

I think it would be great if you could continue on this thread posting trades you are considering if you could (maybe you don't want to give away too much? ) I very much like the 4 hour setup for my other daily acitivities too along with the volatility being somewhat taken out by the longer time frame I use to.

Thanks!
I will most definitely show the ones I take. At this stage it looks like everyone is waiting for the news.

The Gbp has a nice shooting star and then a downbar. Again it is the profit targets that makes it not worth it. That bottom trendline is still in play. Patients.
  • #65
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:03pm Jan 30, 2007 1:03pm
I just want to emphasize someting. I dont trade as to the exact pip. By that I mean if the 21EMA is 39 pips away I subtract my 2 pips spread and then put in a close order for 37 pips. I dont do it that way. Profit after 30 pips is good enough for me. I have lost to many deals with one or three pips to be that exact. If my profit target is at 1.2900 with a possible 40 gain I will take profit at 1.2890 for a sure 30 pips. I dont also trade every signal the MACD is given. Look at history to see which ones give definite gain and study the looks of it. See how it moved in relation to the MA's.
I have studied the market for two years papertrading before going live. Treat this strategy as a bussines. Draw up a bussines plan and write a Standard Procedure Instruction as to what are the steps in cronicle order when a setup is about to occur.

1. Is the setup according to the rules. Does it looks OK.
2. Are there news ahead
3. What is my risk. Stoploss. Can I afford it.
4. How far away are the first line of profit taking. Is it worth it.
5. How long do I plan to be in this trade. If we are at a 5 year low and I can get in at the bottom I surely wanted to stay in as long as possible. Is it a quick 20 pips against the trend on a pullback.
6. If I cant watch it live how will I manage and protect the trade. Might reduce the stoploss till I can attend live again etc.

This is only an example. Do your own.

A profit not yet taken is not a profit.
  • #66
  • Jan 30, 2007 4:46pm Jan 30, 2007 4:46pm
Hello Phillip,

thanks again for a nice system.

I now have to read all, and hope i understand.

Cheers
Mobsie
  • #67
  • Jan 31, 2007 9:02am Jan 31, 2007 9:02am
Gbp short @ 1.9540 with target at 1.9500 and it went passed to the Fibonacci 161%. At least 35 pips profit taking at 1.9505
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  • #68
  • Jan 31, 2007 9:08am Jan 31, 2007 9:08am
I took this one for 15 Pips

Update:
I was busy posting this when 15 pip was reached.

Entry 1.2963 closed at 1.2978
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  • #69
  • Jan 31, 2007 9:24am Jan 31, 2007 9:24am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I took this one for 15 Pips

Update:
I was busy posting this when 15 pip was reached.

Entry 1.2963 closed at 1.2978
Saw the 0 rejection, too. Coincided well with 2x 4h bars that made up a pin bar. Only took 6 pips out of it :S
Shoulda stayed in, had a lot of things suggesting near 1.3.
Oh well. Nice system, keep up the great work =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #70
  • Jan 31, 2007 9:34am Jan 31, 2007 9:34am
Quoting SeekingLight
Saw the 0 rejection, too. Coincided well with 2x 4h bars that made up a pin bar. Only took 6 pips out of it :S
Shoulda stayed in, had a lot of things suggesting near 1.3.
Oh well. Nice system, keep up the great work =)
I should have stayed in???????. The thought might be nice but I stucked to the rules that trendline can be resistance and took the profit as planned. It is not so much the pips but the discipline to stay to the rules and the plan that brings success. Otherwise we trade emotional. 1.3000 was the resistance it looks like.
  • #71
  • Jan 31, 2007 10:14am Jan 31, 2007 10:14am
Just took a quick 24 pips out of the gbp/usd as it flew through the next profit level....

Lets' see if the eur/usd makes it up the the next profit level as well....

Nice work guys.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #72
  • Jan 31, 2007 10:31am Jan 31, 2007 10:31am
What will the chance be that with this early up move that interest rates are going to be unchanged. Are we going to see a further up. Some comments
  • #73
  • Jan 31, 2007 10:54am Jan 31, 2007 10:54am
How about a strange Fed Interest news strategy. What will happen when interest rate are raised today totally against the expectation of the Market. Why not a short order at 1.2890 and let it run if right and cancel if wrong. You are not going to be right a lot with this attitude but when you are you surely will smile. Look what happened with the Gbp the other day.
You do so on your own risk.
  • #74
  • Jan 31, 2007 12:07pm Jan 31, 2007 12:07pm
Hi!

I have an hard time in replicating the charts I see. I checked with StrategyBuilder, IBFX and Metaquotes versions of MT, but all look like the chart I am posting.

Where am I wrong? :-(
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  • #75
  • Jan 31, 2007 12:32pm Jan 31, 2007 12:32pm
I'm going to say we'll see a further uptrend with no rate change... But not too much to go on - just the movements here before the report
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #76
  • Jan 31, 2007 12:51pm Jan 31, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting Triton18
Hi!

I have an hard time in replicating the charts I see. I checked with StrategyBuilder, IBFX and Metaquotes versions of MT, but all look like the chart I am posting.

Where am I wrong? :-(
I don't have an idea why. It looks like there is an hour or two shift. My time are GMT+2.

Can someone help please.
Thanks
  • #77
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:26pm Jan 31, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I don't have an idea why. It looks like there is an hour or two shift. My time are GMT+2.

Can someone help please.
Thanks
Well, the most simpliest reason for this is, that the 4H candle starts in different hour than the one on yours chart (my charts actually also don't look exactly like yours Phil, I am running FXDD MT), hence the MACD readings do not look exactly the same. I would say it depends on broker.
Am I right ?
  • #78
  • Jan 31, 2007 4:56pm Jan 31, 2007 4:56pm
Endy, your chart looks very similar to mine (I can be a little obvlivious sometimes), but I'm not sure how your's differs than just the grid numbers being longer/wider than what I'm use too and maybe Phil is using.

Btw - since I'm new to this technique I closed my trades a second ago and took 44 pips today. Not too shaby for looking at the charts a few times (while at my day job)....

I really like the laid out profit levels with the ma's. I usually just "see" and draw my own, but these seem to be pretty accurate so far. When a level is crossed, it continued to the next (of course using the previous level as resistance just like any other resistance type of trade). If it didn't cross.... it stayed or pulled back.

Managing the trade is much easier after entering, and with a trailing stop, I've at the very least come out even. Entering the trade on the MACD signs will still take some time for me to get use too, but decent so far. It's a pretty mechanical system... and that is a good thing!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #79
  • Jan 31, 2007 7:59pm Jan 31, 2007 7:59pm
Great system Phillip!!! I made some great trades between shorting the GBP/USD and EUR/USD on last nights signal and going long on those two pairs with this mornings signals! You were right, you get good signals plenty of time before the news comes out. I hope everyone else did well today. If anyone had trouble, read Phillip's trading system again and again until you get it. Everything you need is right there! This is exciting stuff!
  • #80
  • Jan 31, 2007 8:58pm Jan 31, 2007 8:58pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Great system Phillip!!! I made some great trades between shorting the GBP/USD and EUR/USD on last nights signal and going long on those two pairs with this mornings signals! You were right, you get good signals plenty of time before the news comes out. I hope everyone else did well today. If anyone had trouble, read Phillip's trading system again and again until you get it. Everything you need is right there! This is exciting stuff!

Hi 211
Congrats on your trades!! Could you post both your short, then long
trades so that we can learn, please.
Thanks
fj
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