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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #87,861
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:45am Jun 3, 2008 8:45am
Quoting Islander
If you take the Swiss Franc as the most stable currency, then IMO the 150 pip spike in USDCHF is on percieved Dollar Strength as opposed to any change in the value Swiss Franc - and by implication this would apply to the other pairs too......IMO
Well, that's true, but not sure what you mean by stable, or why the CHF would be the most stable, at one time it was 4:1 to the dollar.
  • #87,862
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:48am Jun 3, 2008 8:48am
Quoting Clouds
Big boys? Who are they? The investment banks don't care, how would they benefit at all? You mean JP Morgan Chase, Ect? I don't think they are so obsessed with exchange rates, they offer loans, will keep your money, ect. Their competition is other banks, not us. Right?
I should say that I am convinced that there is sometimes significant manipulation by brokers at the end of the week and at the start of the new week. I have setup Interbankfx charts to login to the demo servers of over 40 brokers and the difference in prices, even accounting for different opening times, are simply amazing. Prices on one broker never see the light of day on another.

The problem that I have with the contrarian theory generally though, or what I believe is also called the "bigger fool theory", is that all the actions can usually be explained by TA, take this recent rise.

Price breached the 50% of the uptrend from about 199 -209. However it was strongly rejected, and if you look on the very strong divergence on the
charts you can see that price should go up. Combine that with fibs and you begin to paint a picture.
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  • #87,863
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:49am Jun 3, 2008 8:49am
Quoting Big Bruv
Keep an eye on the DOW.....
have been looking at your signature for days and have chuckled at it quite a few times. "fill like a bum" to anyone in the UK will sound really dirty
  • #87,864
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:50am Jun 3, 2008 8:50am
This type of spikes allways gets retraced, allways... Euro, looks to be in a complex correction so 1,4960 level looks quite possible at the moment, dollar could, I repeat "could correct to the 75 level, but the MAJOR LOW is not in yet, not by a wide margin, look out below, that's all I will say for the carry...
  • #87,865
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:50am Jun 3, 2008 8:50am
there's no reason why geppy shouldn't close the gap from this moment... add my long position to the max
  • #87,866
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:52am Jun 3, 2008 8:52am
Quoting gene22
This type of spikes allways gets retraced, allways... Euro, looks to be in a complex correction so 1,4960 level looks quite possible at the moment, dollar could, I repeat "could correct to the 75 level, but the MAJOR LOW is not in yet, not by a wide margin, look out below, that's all I will say for the carry...
Agreed. The dollar is just starting it's tumble and any lower price on the euro is just an excellent bargain price in my eyes. Sorry, I know we're in the gbp/jpy thread. Don't want the thread police to yell at me!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #87,867
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:53am Jun 3, 2008 8:53am
Quoting GodfreyH

The problem that I have with the contrarian theory generally though, or what I believe is also called the "bigger fool theory", is that all the actions can usually be explained by TA, take this recent rise.

Price breached the 50% of the uptrend from about 199 -209. However it was strongly rejected, and if you look on the very strong divergence on the
charts you can see that price should go up. Combine that with fibs and you begin to paint a picture.
Check with Rueters. They have the info. Price WAS driven up by Eastern European banks this morning. Full Stop.
  • #87,868
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:53am Jun 3, 2008 8:53am
Shakes, i need to send u a PM, or PM me with ur email plz
  • #87,869
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:57am Jun 3, 2008 8:57am
Quoting lilmoe
Shakes, i need to send u a PM, or PM me with ur email plz

OK PM is active - go ahead lil.
  • #87,870
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:57am Jun 3, 2008 8:57am
Quoting Johor JCS
there's no reason why geppy shouldn't close the gap from this moment... add my long position to the max

naaaaaaa no gap close
  • #87,871
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:59am Jun 3, 2008 8:59am
Quoting shakesfx
Hows the DOW looking now?
confused....
  • #87,872
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:01am Jun 3, 2008 9:01am
Quoting Johor JCS
there's no reason why geppy shouldn't close the gap from this moment... add my long position to the max
213+
  • #87,873
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:03am Jun 3, 2008 9:03am
My 4 hr bar has closed above the critical point...i see no way back for shorts....sorry ......the gap will close today...lets see....then again the US session is just crazy...anything could happen.....

the DOW is the answer
  • #87,874
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:05am Jun 3, 2008 9:05am
Quoting rsharpe30
have been looking at your signature for days and have chuckled at it quite a few times. "fill like a bum" to anyone in the UK will sound really dirty
hehe..dats the idea
  • #87,875
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:05am Jun 3, 2008 9:05am
Quoting Big Bruv
My 4 hr bar has closed above the critical point...i see no way back for shorts....sorry ......the gap will close today...lets see....then again the US session is just crazy...anything could happen.....

the DOW is the answer
good us news
  • #87,876
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:08am Jun 3, 2008 9:08am
Quoting shakesfx
OK PM is active - go ahead lil.
check ur pm big guy
  • #87,877
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:12am Jun 3, 2008 9:12am
Quoting shakesfx
Check with Rueters. They have the info. Price WAS driven up by Eastern European banks this morning. Full Stop.
LOL - so the old "Red Telephone" still works - only now its the bankers that get to use it - still, they are the puppet masters.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #87,878
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:12am Jun 3, 2008 9:12am
Did anyone get the gu this morning....... I got in at 1.9730 and closed @ 1.9604................waiting for another entry....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #87,879
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:16am Jun 3, 2008 9:16am
u guys need to be ready for 203.50 by tomorrow

  • #87,880
  • Jun 3, 2008 9:16am Jun 3, 2008 9:16am
4h suggests plenty plenty room for up.......
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Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
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