Malaysia

"All that is neccessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

Cacing vijayshantid
Get loss from here if you have nothing to contribute. Normally I just read this thread but worm like vijayshantid is everywhere..

By the way, I want to share some findings about correlation between bond market and stock market. Bond yield have inverse relationship with stock market futures. However as usual bond market will move uptrend for 16 hours first before major drop in stock market futures.

ZB = 30 years US Bond
FDAX = Germany stock index futures

As usual don't enter too early else you will suffer from relative drawdown.

From http://www.stock-market-crash.net/blog.htm

GBPJPY have 88% correlation with Stock market Futures... So if you short DAX, you can short any Yen pairs too.

hi, can i know what is your setting for fx sniper indicator?

Good morning, peterhor.
FX_Sniper setting is pq=4 pr=8 ps=5 trigger=4

The most important indicator is ZB (US 30 years bond) and 6S (Swiss Franc)
if on H4 they go up. Then short stock market index and GBPCHF or NZDCHF
Normally any Yen pairs will follow.

On the other hand, if ZB goes down, please load up on Stock Market index and carry trade but the correlation far weaker...

You can study the correlation between ZB and Swiss franc.
Normally I don't trade Yen carry pairs..

Received 1 eMail:


I replied...


OMG!!! This TROLL never give up. Now attacking my Email. Last time I was accused to be a SPAMMER... this time... a Con Artist I wonder what else next time?

So tough to be an active Forum Host. This is one of the obstacles that I have to face. Never mind... Never Give Up.

Why I border being so active in here anyway... I got not a single cent for contributing.

But I got addicted with the KNOWLEDGE and WISDOM I gain from SHARING. I also already gain so many FRIENDS not just from MALAYSIA... but all around the world. That's what DRIVE me to keep on ACTIVE.

Believe whatever you wanna believe... If I am really a Con-Artist... this Thread already dead a long time ago... or die soon. I don't think so... this thread will keep on active until FF no longer exist.

So tired and sleepy already... Good night

I have been in the exact position that you find yourself in. You reaction is the one of a honest and good man. I contribute to the thread started recently. "Knowledge Is Power" I do the same thing there that you do here.

Try to teach folks how to trade FX properly. I put in many many hours posting and I do it just to teach and share. Like yourself, I find it also helps me and I also get to learn more at the same time.

The only way to deal with these sick individuals is to ignore them. I learned a long time ago that when someone is trying to tell you something about yourself, most of the time if not all, they are projecting their PERCEPTION on you because they are the ones with the criminal mind.

I stand with you here 100% and NEVER NEVER NEVER Give Up !!!

"United We Stand, Divided We Fall"

Your Friend


Bruce

P.S. Keep Up Your Good Efforts Here. It Is Most Appreciated.

heheehhehehehe......hehehehehe....huhuhuhuhu

have a good night sleep bro.........

p/s- looking forward to see you soon.......hehehehehe.....

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


Today's Wrap Up talks about the FED and it is a very revealing editorial for those new to the games people play in the name of money and greed.


Bruce

Very Important To Understand And Know The Future !!! All Comments are welcome. Good Morning To Those About To Wake Up In The Other Part of OUR World !!!

Today 8:33pm
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 528


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif This Was Posted Before But It Is Well Worth Reading Again !!!
The following information is Mind Boggling...Comments Anyone ?

http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/200...lse-alarm.html

The scary Fed charts are making the rounds on various blogs now.

Over at CalculatedRisk they are being interpreted as a “false alarm” in Non-Borrow Reserves and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.

Over at MarketTicker they are being interpreted as evidence that “the system as a whole is insolvent” in Tall Tale Tuesday.

While I’m not sure (yet) that “the whole system is insolvent”, I definitely do NOT think this is a “false alarm”.

CalculatedRisk: Non-Borrow Reserves and the Fed’s Balance Sheet: ““This graph, from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, shows the non-borrowed reserves of financial institutions. Looks like some serious cliff diving, but with a little research, we discover this graph is misleading.

The explanation is pretty simple. The Federal Reserve decided to classify the TAF and the primary dealer credit facility as borrowed reserves (see this table). If we back out these collateralized borrowings, you get the total reserves, and that has been very steady. False alarm.”

My Comment: First, lets start with “total reserves have been steady” if you exclude the Term Auction Facility (TAF). This, as I understand it, should not be done. This facility was specifically designed for depository institutions to replenish reserves:

Term Auction Facility (TAF): “Under the term auction facility (TAF), the Federal Reserve will auction term funds to depository institutions. All depository institutions that are eligible to borrow under the primary credit program will be eligible to participate in TAF auctions. All advances must be fully collateralized. Each TAF auction will be for a fixed amount, with the rate determined by the auction process (subject to a minimum bid rate). Bids will be submitted by phone through local Reserve Banks.”TAF FAQ

The TAF is currently at $100 billion and that has been drawn (Chart: TERMAUC). Bernanke raised the TAF limit to $150 billion on May 2nd. (Fed Officials Warn About Inflation, Say Markets Still Unsettled) Obviously there is a need for this liquidity. The chart measures exactly what it should: Non-Borrowed Reserves. The TAF is so large now, that Non-Borrowed Reserves are deeply negative.

What does this mean? Is “the system as a whole insolvent”? I would say POSSIBLY. We don’t know for sure YET and it may take years before we find out.

The Federal Reserve requires collateral from those borrowing through the TAF. We need to first understand the collateral, and margin rules on that collateral to determine how risky the TAF facility is.

Collateral FAQ
The Discount and PSR Margins Table

A good chunk of what can be used of collateral is low risk and transparent. For example, US Treasuries and Fully Guaranteed Agencies, Government Sponsored Enterprises, International Agencies, Brady Bonds, Foreign Governments, and Foreign Government Agencies are all liquid, can be valued and are transparent in the sense that you know what it is you’re holding.

BUT, then things get sketchy and they get really sketchy really quickly.

Municipal Bonds are mostly good collateral. I say mostly, because municipal defaults are generally very low. HOWEVER, the last 5 years of revenues and the projections of all future revenues are based on an illusion. That illusion was of perpetually rising real estate prices and therefore perpetually rising property tax income. Furthermore, the churn in real estate, the sheer volume of sales, also generated a large, non-reoccurring revenue stream from one time transaction taxes. Municipal expenditures rose with these income increases and future projections, on which bonds were floated, extrapolated this income stream into infinity. Some municipals are already under severe stress as their tax bases collapse. (See Tax Assessors Nightmare of at Mish’s for an in depth analysis of the pending tax implosion.)

Corporate Bonds Rated AAA are generally fine. On average only 23.3% of all bonds rated AAA were downgraded to AA over a 5-year horizon. This means that the collateral pool will gradually shrink as AAA corporate bonds slowly get downgraded as economic fundamentals deteriorate. Basically as AAA rated bond that gets downgraded won’t be eligible at the TAF any longer. So when the 28 day period expires, the bond is swapped back by the Fed. Default is almost impossible in such a short time frame.

BUT, that assumes that AAA today is as solid and reliable as AAA used to be years ago. Even sudden implosions, such as that of Bear Stearns, don’t tend to be a problem because the ratings of such firms generally aren’t high enough. Bear Stearns had been rated A+ before it imploded and therefore Bear Stearns debt wouldn’t have been eligible as collateral. The ratings agencies don't exactly inspire much confidence in their skills.

Further down the list we hit Asset Backed Securities, Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, Mortgage Backed Securities, and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations. THIS is where the wheels come off…

First, OBJECTIVELY valuing these instruments is damn near impossible. That is WHY these markets have seized up. Second, they are not transparent. To figure out and hunt down the underlying assets in these derivatives of derivatives is also damn near impossible. Even worse is the fact that both AAA rated and NON-AAA are eligible when we already know that even AAA ratings in these instruments are deeply FLAWED and UNRELIABLE. Unlike corporate bonds, these instruments can suddenly collapse without warning. Therefore, the Fed really is taking a big risk on these.

Furthermore, the ‘haircut’ on all this collateral is ridiculously LOW. Most are only 1% - 3%. The lendable value of the worse of these is still 70% and that is only when there is NO MARKET PRICE AVAILABLE. I can tell you this, when there is no market price, there is also no way in hell the instrument is worth 70 cents on the dollar. No price and you can generously assume you’re not going to get more than 50 cents on the dollar and I say that would be a best case scenario.

“A more interesting chart was present by Dr. Janet Yellen this morning showing the Fed's balance sheet.

This graph shows that about half the Fed's U.S. Treasuries have been committed to fight the liquidity crisis.”

My Comment: Interesting indeed. Frightening as well. The Fed has basically traded in high quality instruments, US treasuries, for low quality instruments that the market doesn’t want at all or is pricing at levels deemed unacceptable by those market participants still denying reality. The Fed has committed half of its $800 billion balance sheet to battle the RESIDENTIAL real estate bubble implosion. The COMMERCIAL real estate bubble implosion has yet to get well underway. Revolving credit, such as credit card debt has yet to implode as well. Job losses have yet to accelerate. The recession has yet to gather steam.

I’ve said it before, The Fed Is Almost Out Of Ammo, Citigroup and UBS Too.

Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions (Chart: BORROW) are fast approaching $150 billion. This does not include the effect of the $50 billion increase in the TAF limit to $150 billion.

This has already pushed Non-Borrowed Reserves (Chart: BOGNONBR) to a NEGATIVE $100 billion. This is likely just to get worse as the balance sheets of financial institutions continue to deteriorate.

The balance sheets of almost all financial institutions, whether they be depository institutions or prime brokers WILL DETERIORATE further. They have to. The vast majority of their balance sheets are now in the Level 2 or Level 3 asset buckets. As I said in Bulltrap: ABCP, and Level 3 Bombs, I can’t imagine that these assets are currently being undervalued or even conservatively valued.
Last edited by Warren Forex, Today 8:35pm Reason: To Add Copy And Paste:

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

Morning Guys!!!!Couldn't trade last nignt due to disruption in internet connection....Seems like these bugs couldn't stop trying to destabilize this thread....The best way like I always said is just to ignore them....

Dear Fellow Posters

It can get overdone seeing such negative information that I am about to post. However as long as the facts are true and I challenge anyone to say why they are not.

Then if you have your head in the sand or refuse to accept the reality and not plan ahead then in the end you will be with the masses who for whatever reason are ignorant of the seriousness of the situation in the USA now and by obvious conclusion, in certain other countries. Use this information to plan ahead and be aware of the real truth.

That is why I keep bringing these articles to MY attention.

If there are changes for the better I will of course adjust my thinking.

Here is the article I just got in my email and I have carefully read every word.

Have a great evening and a good morning !!!

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...an-season.aspx

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Posted Jun 02 2008, 05:30 PM
by John Mauldin


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Regular readers of Outside the Box will be familiar with Michael Lewitt's thoughtful commentary. Today, he reminds us that much of the turmoil we are in could have been avoided with proper regulatory structures and then does a very poignant analysis of various sectors of the economy. I agree with him that we have not seen the worst and that we will continue to see this mild recession/slow recovery for longer than we should without true structural reform.
On a side note, I will be on CNBC Tuesday morning at around 10:00 or 10:30 with Mark Haines and Erin Burnett, talking about commodity prices and regulation.
So without further ado, let's jump into today's Outside the Box.
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
The HCM Market Letter

by Michael E. Lewitt
June 1, 2008

The Hollow Men
We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
Or rats' feet over broken glass
In our dry cellar
Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion;
Those who have crossed
With direct eyes, to death's other Kingdom
Remember us - if at all - not as lost
Violent souls, but only
As the hollow men
The stuffed men.
T.S. Eliot (1925)

Introduction - The Mean Season

While many economic pundits are trying to predict the end of the American recession that began last summer, HCM regrets to inform everybody that the United States' economy is entering hurricane season. And we don't call it The Mean Season down here in Florida for nothing. The economic headwinds that have been buffeting the United States for the past several months are only increasing in velocity despite the Herculean efforts of the powers-that-be to bolster the system against collapse. At this point, the domestic economic picture can only be described as ominous. Energy prices have risen from dangerously high to prohibitively high. Housing prices are continuing to drop at alarming rates in many sections of the country. Banks remain reluctant to lend either to individuals or corporations for virtually any type of transaction. And our political and business elites remain a prosper of Hollow Men who continue to whistle past the graveyard as their limousines chauffeur them home each night to their gated mansions.
HCM harps on this leadership void because policy failures led us into our current difficulties. Inadequate financial regulation allowed unfettered securitization and leverage to push the system to the brink of collapse. A complete failure to fashion a responsible energy policy has led to skyrocketing gasoline prices. The damage inflicted on investors, consumers and businesses by these failures were avoidable. Instead, the political and financial elite placed their own short-term interests ahead of the long-term interests of everybody else, and the results are plain to see: burgeoning inflation, choked credit markets, and a deteriorating physical, moral and cultural climate. The only way to improve things is to identify what ails us and then initiate systemic reform. But systems cannot change unless the individuals who manage and participate in them are willing to change. HCM's past two newsletters ("How to Fix It," April 1, 2008 and "Why We Must Fix It," May 1, 2008) were attempts to engage our readers in the type of debate that must occur as we enter a Presidential election at this crucial and uncertain time in history. In this issue, HCM focuses to a greater extent than in our last two issues on the economic headwinds that are frankly alarming us.
The U.S. Economy

An array of American industries is beginning to experience deep distress. Three in particular are about to experience a wave of restructurings or defaults that will drive a stake through the heart of the American economy: airlines, automobiles and retailers.
The Airline Industry - Unfriendly Skies
Having tried to merge in virtually every permutation available and failed, the airlines are now left with no choice but to cut capacity and pray for oil prices to fall. American Airlines, generally considered the best managed and healthiest U.S. airline, announced on May 21, 2008 that it will cut its capacity by 12 percent and reduce its workforce by a commensurate amount due to high oil prices (which account for 40 percent of its cost structure).1 Delta and Northwest, which had the dubious distinction of filing for bankruptcy on the same day, have announced that they will merge (although in the airline industry there is a huge distance between the cup and the lip, so whether this deal is ultimately consummated remains to be seen). United and USAir have been flirting with each other but seem unlikely to mate despite titters that they may try to hook up again. The bottom line is that airlines, which are marginal businesses in the best of times, are unsustainable businesses with oil at current levels. The industry was partially nationalized after 9-11. The current oil spike should finish the job.
The Automobile Industry - One Big Pothole
The automobile industry continues to be weighed down by the albatrosses of outmoded products, unionized workforces, crippling legacy costs, higher raw material costs and the unavoidable conclusion that the world has passed them by. It is both startling and depressing to hear American automakers just now coming to the conclusion that they are still manufacturing too many gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs and too few hybrid and diesel passenger vehicles. Few industries have seen such profound failures of vision and leadership. Ford announced in late May that it no longer expects to be profitable in 2009 and expects to produce 120,000 to 150,000 fewer trucks and SUVs in the third quarter of 2008 than a year earlier, and 60,000 to 100,000 fewer in the fourth quarter of this year than last year. Job losses and plant closings are sure to follow unless current facilities can be converted to manufacture more fuel efficient vehicles. Ford is generally considered the healthiest of the Big Three.
Now General Motors, whose stock (see Graph 1 below) has hit a multi-decade low, is preparing a new restructuring plan in order to reduce costs and preserve cash. The reference to "preserving cash" should raise alarm-bells in the minds of investors in General Motor's debt and equity securities. HCM has long maintained in this publication and elsewhere that General Motors will ultimately have to restructure its balance sheet (probably through a bankruptcy filing). We take no pleasure in noting that the evidence is mounting that General Motor's woes appear to be accelerating. The ongoing soap opera at General Motor's largest parts supplier, Delphi Corp.,2 is also placing additional financial stress on the company since General Motors has continuing financial obligations to the parts maker, which it spun off several years ago. Investors should not for one minute try to convince themselves that General Motors is too big to fail. It is not a financial institution like Bear Stearns whose bankruptcy would call into doubt the viability of the financial system. General Motors is just a stumbling industrial giant that has outlived its usefulness and failed to adapt to the times. Investors should avoid General Motors' securities even if it means taking losses at current prices.


Bruce

01:15 NEWS: Nikkei Somewhat Stable After Plunge To 14,165.90 Tokyo, June 3. Though still down large from an early high of 14,283.73, the Nikkei remains significantly underwater at 14,170.87, down 269.27 points or 1.86% on the day. The saving grace may be that the index is managing to hold above 14k. Stocks are generally weaker in general on renewed risk aversion on concerns over the UK and US financial systems. The spate of bad news began over the weekend with reports that UK Bradford & Bingley would announce a profit hit shortly and that its CEO has resigned. The bad news continued into the New York session with S&P downgrading three major US investment banks and expressing a negative view on the financial industry. The resignation of Wachovia"s CEO was probably the proverbial frosting on the cake. [email protected]

HEINZ MAAK <[email protected]> wrote:

You are a scam artist. You pulling in people so that you can cheat them their money. You are a cheat. Many people in your Malaysia thread dont post in your thread but they do pm Vijayshantid and agree with his opinion. Shame on you.

anyway... when the next gathering BRO...

Good Morning Warren... Wakli... Cappalz... all

Lets sing together:

Flee!!! Flee fly mosquito,
Calamine!!! Calamine... Calamine... Calamine lotion,
Oooooo no more calamine lotion,

Itchy... Itchy... Scratchy... Scratchy...
Up and down my backside,

There goes the mosquito,
When I spray with the spray can,
Psssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssst.............


The BUG already been BANNED.

p/s: Fellow members can ask me to sing that LIVE during our BIG GATHERING this month.

There are a lot of sick people out there. They just like to cause problems to others. Ignore them and just do what is right Sham. I will support you all the way.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0602.html


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0602.html


Bruce

Bruce,

Just for the sake of discussion... What about Agricultural/Food Sector. That is vital as well. Food becoming scares with the ever increasing population. USA is doing well in that business, isn't it?

And... in line with the increasing OIL price... Food Price also increase.

Mind twisting now

SHAMX

Guess what? This TROLL keep on BUZZING in my Email since he already been banned here Already Reported him as SPAM to Yahoo... what else can I do

In the end... it just show his own stupidity and childish. Superiority complex Screzo.

hi guys..

been busy for the past 2 to 3 weeks...had a conference last week and only managed to read the chart this morning.

missed a lot of chances but no worry. the market is still here.

need to read up all the pages that i've left and catch up everything. need to give my focus back on UJ.

anyway, good luck everyone!

make more pips!

Salam Brother Sham...

Any post for today....

Uh... too busy with the TROLL until I forgot to mentioned this.

My LONG on GJ and UJ yesterday at the support line hit tight SL last night. Just small pips. And then Shoot Up to my previous Entry Price. GJ is playing at the CHANNEL support Line while UJ is playing at the Daily Pivot which is also around the Monthly Pivot. Expecting Ranging until European Session.

Still got my Floating SHORT on CABLE and FIBER.