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  • #241
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:42pm Jun 1, 2008 9:42pm
Quoting tennisguy
Thanks DRT for your reply. I am doing my best to understand the curve approach, price distribution....It is not that easy but trying.

Txs again.

TG
Just remember.....if it was a easy as plotting a moving average or stochastic or stretching a fib grid then everyone would be doing it... make the effort...learn it and have an edge in your trading.
  • #242
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:46pm Jun 1, 2008 9:46pm
I will do my best to learn it DRT. what is your profit target for the GU short. and would you reverse at that level after you cover your position?

TG


Quoting DownRiverTrader
Just remember.....if it was a easy as plotting a moving average or stochastic or stretching a fib grid then everyone would be doing it... make the effort...learn it and have an edge in your trading.
  • #243
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:54pm Jun 1, 2008 9:54pm
Sorry to bother you again DRT,

when you say you trade the curve on the euro during the asia session. does it mean what I think it means: like when the price goes to the bottom of the curve (on the matrix), you go long because the price goes back to the middle of the curve where the longest line is. and vice versa for the short trade, when the pair is at the top of the curve.

Am I understanding correctly?

TG




Quoting DownRiverTrader
My current positions from the last session are....

Short the EURUSD
Waiting to get filled for a long on USDJPY
Short the GBPUSD
Long the USDCHF.

I just wanted to remind all of you (again) that I am actually not trading the spot market. I trade currency futures, but most here don't. My personal values are slightly different in the futures market. I just covert my ideas into the cash market values for you.

I am actually

Short ECM08
Waiting for a short on JYM08
Short BPM08
Short SFM08

What I actually do is "work the curve". Once volatility develops I am constantly working in and out of positions until things align. Much like a market maker or dealer would do.

To eloaboate a little further....

even though I am expecting a move down in the Euro, I play the curve both down and up during the move. So I was short EC from Friday. It just hit a level where I am expecting a move back up. I reversed and will look to get back in short above. I "expect" the distribution to develop in an orderly manner. It certainly does not do this all the time, but in Asia especially the odds are that it will range until Europe's volume come on line, so....I trade the curve.

There is just no way I can convert all the values and post all my trades in the cash values. If you guys were trading futures, I would be glad to do this but I assume you don't watch futures. If any of you trade futures, let me know.

Here's the distribution after a few hours of trading tonight. This is how I trade it as it is developing.

http://www.askdrt.org/storage/ask-dr...stribution.PNG
  • #244
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:58pm Jun 1, 2008 9:58pm
like on the matrix I see the euro at 1.5526 .and the longest line on the volume curve is 1.5546. so I assume you will go long because the pair should reach 1.5546 to balance the curve. am I correct?

TG
  • #245
  • Jun 2, 2008 2:23am Jun 2, 2008 2:23am
Quoting tennisguy
like on the matrix I see the euro at 1.5526 .and the longest line on the volume curve is 1.5546. so I assume you will go long because the pair should reach 1.5546 to balance the curve. am I correct?

TG
You could take that trade, but that is not how I do it.
  • #246
  • Edited 3:30am Jun 2, 2008 2:34am | Edited 3:30am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Trading Plan for 6.2.2008

EURUSD


Look to set shorts at 1.5581. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.5470.



USDJPY


Look to set longs at 105.48. Risk below 105.23. Target 105.67


GBPUSD



Look to set shorts at 1.9807. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.9658.


USDCHF

Look to set longs at 1.0421. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.0517.
UPDATE:

GBPUSD

Did not give you your entry, but has now reached target level.

I would recommend setting longs in the 9658 or better level and targeting 1.9807. If the trade does move upward, watch the 9760 level. If price does not make it through this level you may want to take profit here.


USDJPY

This trade did not work out. You would have been stopped out.


USDCHF

This pair has just entered the buying level. Set longs.

EURUSD
This pair came within about 10 ticks of the entry level but did not reach it as of yet.
  • #247
  • Jun 2, 2008 2:41am Jun 2, 2008 2:41am
DRT what did you do in usd/yen
  • #248
  • Jun 2, 2008 3:15am Jun 2, 2008 3:15am
Gbp is still falling..not good time to go long
  • #249
  • Jun 2, 2008 3:54am Jun 2, 2008 3:54am
More often than not, I find that trading on a Monday, especially the first day of a new trading month, it does not benefit me to have a strong directional bias. Just go with the flow as new positions are working in the market.
  • #250
  • Jun 2, 2008 3:55am Jun 2, 2008 3:55am
Quoting titan0708
Gbp is still falling..not good time to go long
For me a least, it is a perfect time to go long because I am buying at a very attractive price.
  • #251
  • Jun 2, 2008 3:57am Jun 2, 2008 3:57am
Quoting 3jjj
DRT what did you do in usd/yen
I have just entered long (short JY futures) around the 105.32 price level. I did not post because the original longer term idea was stopped out, but I think it is a very attractive price to go long.
  • #252
  • Jun 2, 2008 4:02am Jun 2, 2008 4:02am
Hello DRT,

Are you still holding onto EURUSD short? It's come back up after being low for many hours. NOt sure about the direction now.

Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #253
  • Jun 2, 2008 4:12am Jun 2, 2008 4:12am
Quoting scyang
Hello DRT,

Are you still holding onto EURUSD short? It's come back up after being low for many hours. NOt sure about the direction now.

Thanks.
Yes I am. Per my earlier post abut working the curve short term, I have been long since early Asia, working the curve up to my shorting level which we just reached around 1.5565 spot price. Excellent price to short at.
  • #254
  • Jun 2, 2008 4:15am Jun 2, 2008 4:15am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Yes I am. Per my earlier post abut working the curve short term, I have been long since early Asia, working the curve up to my shorting level which we just reached around 1.5565 spot price. Excellent price to short at.
Then how far down do you expect this pair to go? Are we just scalping or down is the trend?
Expected the unexpected
  • #255
  • Jun 2, 2008 4:48am Jun 2, 2008 4:48am
Hello DRT,

How do you work the matrix then. and the curve in the matrix. If you are willing to elaborate.

txs,

TG




Quoting DownRiverTrader
You could take that trade, but that is not how I do it.
  • #256
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:17am Jun 2, 2008 6:17am
Quoting scyang
Then how far down do you expect this pair to go? Are we just scalping or down is the trend?

Right now the curve is balanced. If you look at my trade plan for the day you will see that the entry was not filled and remains open. Also you will see that the downside target has not been hit yet. Like I said, balanced 50/50 either way to one of those levels.

What I would say is that if price holds below 1.5538 then look for more downside to the targets in the plan. If the 5538 doesn't hold the downside, then it will likely head up and look to enter short at the levels in the plan.
  • #257
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:20am Jun 2, 2008 6:20am
I am beginning to see that my shorter term session trading is confusing for you guys. I am likely going to work on more of a position trade plan again for you with some charts to help you. I thought this would be helpful, but not so sure now.
  • #258
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:38am Jun 2, 2008 6:38am
Quoting tennisguy
Hello DRT,

How do you work the matrix then. and the curve in the matrix. If you are willing to elaborate.

txs,

TG

TG - What trading platform do you use?
  • #259
  • Edited 7:17am Jun 2, 2008 7:01am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I see no changes for the NA session. I will say that the way to handle this is to watch your balance levels and if we are moving through then be flexible and reverse your plans and targets.

Do not act to quickly!!!!!!!!!! Especially if it happens after the data. News rarely rules the demand supply and if it does it is only for a short time. Good luck today.

Trading Plan for the North American Session 5.30.2008

General

Currently, of the 4 majors only 1 is in reversal mode and that is cable. The USDJPY came within a few ticks of balancing yesterday but did not so technically it still needs to move down a bit. Both the Euro and the Swiss Franc still have unfinished business. While this is not a reliable indicator, it does lead me to believe we may continue to see some limited dollar strength into the end of the month.



EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.90

Balance 105.25

Short Target and Reverse 104.85


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.9825

Balance 1.9745

Short Target and Reverse 1.9673


BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.

If price moves down look to position long at 9673.


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = UnBalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.0554

Balance 1.0459

Short Target and Reverse 1.0419

Bias – Look to set up long on a push down to balance at 1.0459 or before. Target 1.0554 and set up shorts at this level.

If we trade down through balance, exit and look to re-set longs at 1.0419.
=========================================
For shorter term and longer term trading session :
=========================================
DRT,

Good morning!
Can you still post on Balance and both target on each pair everyday? (like this one)
Just in case, any pair can move to the opposite direction.

Thanks.

Trader8686
  • #260
  • Jun 2, 2008 7:36am Jun 2, 2008 7:36am
Quoting trader8686
=========================================
For shorter term and longer term trading session :
=========================================
DRT,

Good morning!
Can you still post on Balance and both target on each pair everyday? (like this one)
Just in case, any pair can move to the opposite direction.

Thanks.

Trader8686
Is this type of commentary clear to you? Does it confuse you? I was sensing that traders here could not get a good handle on it.

I wish everyone would give me some feedback.
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