Ask DRT | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Ask High and Ask Low Indicator 1 reply

DRT's Trading Room 16 replies

Price on charts vs. Bid and Ask price 1 reply

Bid or ask? 3 replies

Ask..Entry,StopLoss, TargetProfit and Trend 6 replies

Attachments: Ask DRT
Exit Attachments

Ask DRT

  • #221
  • May 30, 2008 10:47am May 30, 2008 10:47am
Might be a good time to re-read this post from earlier.

KEEP YOU EYE ON THE 12:00 TIME FRAME and the trading shortly thereafter.

Quoting DownRiverTrader

Now your question ... when price violates a level like balance. Don't react too quickly. Give it time to fail in other words. Many times, large traders are right on the other side waiting for people who think the market is going to move down, then zap they get caught and the market soars up on short covering.

Learn to give it time, observe, don't put a time frame on it. You will know when you are wrong.

Now if the market, shot thru by 50 points for some reason, then react. Get out.

I hope this makes sense. Learn to be an observer first and a trader second.
  • #222
  • May 30, 2008 12:26pm May 30, 2008 12:26pm
ok, i have thrown up 50 times!! sorry, bad joke. anyway, looks like the usd/jpy has settled in for the weekend, or is ther going to be a surge at the end of the day?? maybe a drop. i am in a demo trade at 105.59 waiting for the move to 105.90, i was waiting for that to hit, then live trade the reversal. guess i wil have to wait for sunday to hit the reversal???

when will you have the new numbers posted for next week on sunday???

i see this trade is teaching me patience, hopefully i learn some!!
  • #223
  • May 30, 2008 12:32pm May 30, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Might be a good time to re-read this post from earlier.

KEEP YOU EYE ON THE 12:00 TIME FRAME and the trading shortly thereafter.
DRT,

When you mentioned about the TIME FRAME, usually you refer to the Market Time or ET?
  • #224
  • May 30, 2008 12:41pm May 30, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting trader8686
DRT,

When you mentioned about the TIME FRAME, usually you refer to the Market Time or ET?

Was refering to EST, but it wasn't much to see. We are in a grid lock. Everyone waiting for the S&P. Don't forget it is the end of the month so we may have some flows hitting.
  • #225
  • May 30, 2008 12:53pm May 30, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting mtrmth
ok, i have thrown up 50 times!! sorry, bad joke. anyway, looks like the usd/jpy has settled in for the weekend, or is ther going to be a surge at the end of the day?? maybe a drop. i am in a demo trade at 105.59 waiting for the move to 105.90, i was waiting for that to hit, then live trade the reversal. guess i wil have to wait for sunday to hit the reversal???

when will you have the new numbers posted for next week on sunday???

i see this trade is teaching me patience, hopefully i learn some!!

Don't go know, we are just getting ready to have fun..... have a good weekend. I will get the Trade Plan up on Sunday evening most likely.

Hope you are feeling better.
  • #226
  • Edited 1:39pm May 30, 2008 1:03pm | Edited 1:39pm
Passing the time...

Everybody thinks the US equities are going to take a tumble I bet. Here it is last day of May and traders are expecting players to get out of longs if they have been long.They may be right, but I see it the other way. Back at the end of February I bought calls (option bet that S&P may go up) on the S&P. I think the US market is headed way up by the end of the year. I bought the options for practically nothing.... maybe exactly what they are worth... maybe not.


I have the ES retracing to 1497.50, so a head fake down and then a move to 1408.75 and on up to 1411 or so starting soon.
  • #227
  • May 30, 2008 1:05pm May 30, 2008 1:05pm
Okay, everybody wake up. I smell a big move in our favor.

Just in case I am wrong (and I usually am).... keep an eye on your risk and act accordingly.
  • #228
  • May 30, 2008 2:34pm May 30, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Okay, everybody wake up. I smell a big move in our favor.

Just in case I am wrong (and I usually am).... keep an eye on your risk and act accordingly.
i am waiting
  • #229
  • May 30, 2008 2:44pm May 30, 2008 2:44pm
Well May sure went out with a bang. Everybody must be at the beach. I am holding all my positions over the weekend. I will get something posted for the Asia-Europe Session on Sunday night. Have a good weekend.
  • #230
  • May 30, 2008 2:50pm May 30, 2008 2:50pm
Thanks DRT for the time you invested in this thread. I am learning a lot from your trading style and will keep looking for your input.

Have a good weekend.

TG
  • #231
  • May 30, 2008 4:16pm May 30, 2008 4:16pm
DRT,

I have a question. In your daily analysis you say your: bias to long the currency pair or short the currency pair.

My question is: how do you determine your bias. is it if it closes for the NA session under or above the daily balance point?

for example in your 5-30-2008 analysis you say you have a bias to stay long on the GU. why. based on what.

txs in adavance.

TG
  • #232
  • May 30, 2008 4:31pm May 30, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Okay, everybody wake up. I smell a big move in our favor.

Just in case I am wrong (and I usually am).... keep an eye on your risk and act accordingly.
Could i ask you if you are still holding this pair? Long or short?
Expected the unexpected
  • #233
  • May 31, 2008 3:54am May 31, 2008 3:54am
Hello DRT,

I have a follow up question to my first question:

in your analysis of 05-30-2008, you say the GBP/USD is balanced. Does it mean when a currency pair is balanced then the strategy becomes to sell at + SD 1, and buy at - SD1 ? (SD = standard deviation)

Am I reading it correctly. and the way to determine the SD on the bell curve is the high of the curve or the low of the curve. Am I correct. or are there other things.


and for a currency that is not balanced then the strategy becomes: if the unbalance is to upside then the target becomes + SD2? and vice versa for the downside with - SD2 as target?

Txs for explaining and educating.

TG

Quoting tennisguy
DRT,

I have a question. In your daily analysis you say your: bias to long the currency pair or short the currency pair.

My question is: how do you determine your bias. is it if it closes for the NA session under or above the daily balance point?

for example in your 5-30-2008 analysis you say you have a bias to stay long on the GU. why. based on what.

txs in adavance.

TG
  • #234
  • Jun 1, 2008 7:58pm Jun 1, 2008 7:58pm
Trading Plan for 6.2.2008

EURUSD


Look to set shorts at 1.5581. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.5470.



USDJPY


Look to set longs at 105.48. Risk below 105.23. Target 105.67


GBPUSD



Look to set shorts at 1.9807. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.9658.


USDCHF

Look to set longs at 1.0421. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.0517.
  • #235
  • Jun 1, 2008 8:18pm Jun 1, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting tennisguy
DRT,

I have a question. In your daily analysis you say your: bias to long the currency pair or short the currency pair.

My question is: how do you determine your bias. is it if it closes for the NA session under or above the daily balance point?

for example in your 5-30-2008 analysis you say you have a bias to stay long on the GU. why. based on what.

txs in adavance.

TG
I am assuming you mean this one...if this is not the one then post what you are asking about

Quote
GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.9825

Balance 1.9745

Short Target and Reverse 1.9673


BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.

If price moves down look to position long at 9673.

If I recall, this pair had filled the downside reversal levels that I follow. I was holding steady even though other majors were losing ground on the USD. In this particular case, as long as we held above value my bias was long. On this particular day, we did close above balance I believe, but that is not the main consideration. What I look at is " did a currency meet its distribution objective for the day, and any relevant previous days" If it did not, then I "expect" it to seek these levels before making a major move out of a value range. I would say that when a pair is trading above value, it is more likely to seek the top objective before seeking the bottom objective.
  • #236
  • Jun 1, 2008 8:28pm Jun 1, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting tennisguy
Hello DRT,

I have a follow up question to my first question:

in your analysis of 05-30-2008, you say the GBP/USD is balanced. Does it mean when a currency pair is balanced then the strategy becomes to sell at + SD 1, and buy at - SD1 ? (SD = standard deviation)

Am I reading it correctly. and the way to determine the SD on the bell curve is the high of the curve or the low of the curve. Am I correct. or are there other things.


and for a currency that is not balanced then the strategy becomes: if the unbalance is to upside then the target becomes + SD2? and vice versa for the downside with - SD2 as target?

Txs for explaining and educating.

TG
If you look a any tradeable's daily distribution, there is a balance point. In market profile it is called TPO (Time Price Opp). Some will call it the longest line, balance, etc. I find my balance points by calculating at what price the GBP traded the highest volume for the day.

Now once you have this level, you can develop a "plan" for the distribution curve to develop. I am looking for certain targets based on a simple method that I developed. It is not taught in MP as far as I know. Anyone can learn how to make assumptions based on what the distribution curve is telling you. If you recall, I have made a few posts about "expecting" market to range trade. I expect that the distribution should balance until proven wrong. What I do is track what happens each day, but more importantly what should have happened that did not happen.

Not sure if you know it or not, but I started a thread on Price Distribution which is here. You should make some time to read through it as I basically laid out how I trade here.
  • #237
  • Jun 1, 2008 8:32pm Jun 1, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting scyang
Could i ask you if you are still holding this pair? Long or short?

I set up short on the EURUSD around 11:00 on Friday. Here is the analysis I posted. I think the high on Friday was 1.5568. I entered on the push into 1.5548. Think I am in around 1.5555 or so. Looking for an aggressive move down.

Quote
EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.
  • #238
  • Edited 9:40pm Jun 1, 2008 8:34pm | Edited 9:40pm
My current positions from the last session are....

Short the EURUSD
Waiting to get filled for a long on USDJPY
Short the GBPUSD
Long the USDCHF.

I just wanted to remind all of you (again) that I am actually not trading the spot market. I trade currency futures, but most here don't. My personal values are slightly different in the futures market. I just covert my ideas into the cash market values for you.

I am actually

Short ECM08
Waiting for a short on JYM08
Short BPM08
Short SFM08

What I actually do is "work the curve". Once volatility develops I am constantly working in and out of positions until things align. Much like a market maker or dealer would do.

To eloaboate a little further....

even though I am expecting a move down in the Euro, I play the curve both down and up during the move. So I was short EC from Friday. It just hit a level where I am expecting a move back up. I reversed and will look to get back in short above. I "expect" the distribution to develop in an orderly manner. It certainly does not do this all the time, but in Asia especially the odds are that it will range until Europe's volume come on line, so....I trade the curve.

There is just no way I can convert all the values and post all my trades in the cash values. If you guys were trading futures, I would be glad to do this but I assume you don't watch futures. If any of you trade futures, let me know.

Here's the distribution after a few hours of trading tonight. This is how I trade it as it is developing.

http://www.askdrt.org/storage/ask-dr...stribution.PNG
  • #239
  • Jun 1, 2008 8:36pm Jun 1, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I set up short on the EURUSD around 11:00 on Friday. Here is the analysis I posted. I think the high on Friday was 1.5568. I entered on the push into 1.5548. Think I am in around 1.5555 or so. Looking for an aggressive move down.
Thanks for the info. I entered the short around the same level as you did by watching the price action at the time. The US ISM manufacturing index report is making me nervous about the direction of the pair though.
Expected the unexpected
  • #240
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:19pm Jun 1, 2008 9:19pm
Thanks DRT for your reply. I am doing my best to understand the curve approach, price distribution....It is not that easy but trying.

Txs again.

TG
0 traders viewing now