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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #4,801
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:16am Jan 31, 2007 2:16am
This has been a great move! DOWN. WOW!!
  • #4,802
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:19am Jan 31, 2007 2:19am
Quoting ghamal
First of all thanks monarch for a great thread. I have a newbie question. If the first candle of the Frankfurt open was down, and the first candle of the london open was down, and the spike broke 9600. Shouldn't that mean that traders want to sell and the day will be down also?
Usually i see a hard down day today at least 1.9515 mimum might even get to just above 1.9400
  • #4,803
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:20am Jan 31, 2007 2:20am
Quoting Mama007
News in London reported a Terror threat which could have caused this down spike . Everything seems to be under control though
This was a nice move downwards here, price hit the 1.9555 area and held so far. If this is the Low for the remainder of the week it would be a double bottom on the Weekly.

This was the move I expected to happen at the Opening of the Week, but we seen it happen on Close of Market Friday. This would be the third time we have tested the 1.9555 area.

Once Last Friday, then on Monday, and now.

This could be the final test of this Support level, or it could push through to the 1.9508 area which was a reasonable possibility before the week started.
  • #4,804
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:20am Jan 31, 2007 2:20am
Opps...i was too sleepy and accidently sold 10000000000000lots...just now.

Sorry if anyone got stopped out
  • #4,805
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:20am Jan 31, 2007 2:20am
the negative reversal has been coming through, howeverwe have reached our critical decision level for news time and jumped off of it. For this reason some profit taking me be in order allowing the remainder to roll. As stops may also be lining up below the recent low area including entry stops, we may see another push to take them out - if the recent 9547 lowis taken out i will use this push to square up my short at my original 9537 target level and fade the 9515 level back up to 9550 before news time.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,806
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:27am Jan 31, 2007 2:27am
Quoting monarch

....This was the move I expected to happen at the Opening of the Week, but we seen it happen on Close of Market Friday. This would be the third time we have tested the 1.9555 area.

Once Last Friday, then on Monday, and now.

..Looks like the importance of this level could be used as a potential setup prior to news where players may feel safe to go long with little risk. If there is a push below prior to news it is a high probability that it is a move through speculative market depth. Didn't think it could go that low as 9505 or so, but your pretty spot on with the projection so I will move my fade entry to your level, not to far off rom mine and if it turns prior, I will just go with that level. Thanks again M.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,807
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:29am Jan 31, 2007 2:29am
Quoting monarch
This was a nice move downwards here, price hit the 1.9555 area and held so far. If this is the Low for the remainder of the week it would be a double bottom on the Weekly.

This was the move I expected to happen at the Opening of the Week, but we seen it happen on Close of Market Friday. This would be the third time we have tested the 1.9555 area.

Once Last Friday, then on Monday, and now.

This could be the final test of this Support level, or it could push through to the 1.9508 area which was a reasonable possibility before the week started.


any one have a site or want to give me a brioef on what the terror act that was attempted i could only find that one was but no specifics
  • #4,808
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:29am Jan 31, 2007 2:29am
Quoting ghamal
First of all thanks monarch for a great thread. I have a newbie question. If the first candle of the Frankfurt open was down, and the first candle of the london open was down, and the spike broke 9600. Shouldn't that mean that traders want to sell and the day will be down also?


Not necessarily. I have witnessed the upward move many times, and then the momentum slows, and the price eventually comes back down to where the move originated, and most times will skirt the London Open and the Frankfurt Low.

I know most people are thinking short right now, but the place to have shorted was back at the break of 1.9604 area. That would have given any trader an easy 50 pips or so.

The thing to remember here is that we are still in our perimeter for the Week. Even though we had a hard drop to 1.9555 area, that does not mean it will continue to drop more.

I Shorted at 1.9604 and made my exit at 1.9575 area, which I had already set for a range low for today.

Then entered a Long from there - that is the position that is now 15 pips in the hole, but I traded it with the projection of the upwards to toeh 1.9647/49 area that was not reached in the last session, but I expect to today.

The price has moved down to the lower edge of the weekly range, and we must anticipate a further move down could happen today.
  • #4,809
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:35am Jan 31, 2007 2:35am
Quoting Leugimp
..Looks like the importance of this level could be used as a potential setup prior to news where players may feel safe to go long with little risk. If there is a push below prior to news it is a high probability that it is a move through speculative market depth. Didn't think it could go that low as 9505 or so, but your pretty spot on with the projection so I will move my fade entry to your level, not to far off rom mine and if it turns prior, I will just go with that level. Thanks again M.


I was actually hoping for this move, the 1.9552 was a bit lower than expected, I was looking to match the Low on the daily candle around 1.9560.

This move is pressing hard on the lower support here, and with it being the 3rd time, it could be breached and drop to the 1.9535 area for an extension before coming back upward.
  • #4,810
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:35am Jan 31, 2007 2:35am
Quoting Leugimp
Who knows tomorrow, but I'll tell you this much - price has been rejecting the 1X1 on the daily and pretty much bounced hard off of the 38.2 retrace from recent 1/23/07 high to yesterdays low. Once the new daily candle opens, the 1X1 will be at or around 9618. Being that we have retraced and bounced hard off a low fib and then later in the day retraced to 1X1 only to bounce hard off of it as well gives the indication that market is respecting these levels. Once the new candle opens, I would speculate that price shouldn't trade over 9618 too long, and coupled with the recent negative reversal earlier today, I would further suspect that we should be heading down to 9535-9550 prior to news time, maybee the move will come 30 min prior, but I think it will happen. as that seemed to be the long term deciding level, there must be orders all over the place around that level and i would imagine that the market would gravitate towards them.

Just an opinion not any type of recommendation
Now its time to take out the pending orders around this level.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,811
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:39am Jan 31, 2007 2:39am
I pared my short but price spiked then stalled so I took small part of long here at 33 in case it turns here, will add at Monarchs projected low of 9505
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,812
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:43am Jan 31, 2007 2:43am
Part of the reason why the short was exited and lon was taken is the reasons mentioned earlier as well as we have already traveled over 100 pips today prior to the big news. This smells like order triggering to me and so I play it the way i smell it.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,813
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:45am Jan 31, 2007 2:45am
Quoting Leugimp
Now its time to take out the pending orders around this level.
Looks like the Same Setup on the Daily

12/8/06 and 12/26/06 - both of these areas were at 1.95256-30 - after they went down to around 1.9510-13 area.

Patterned after itself I would say.
  • #4,814
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:46am Jan 31, 2007 2:46am
The bubble indicator has proven great over these conditions and as of right now we are at an extreme reading on the 150 tick. if confirmation comes prior to 9508 being reached I will add to long for a 40 pip pt1.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,815
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:46am Jan 31, 2007 2:46am
Quoting PipJunkie
any one have a site or want to give me a brioef on what the terror act that was attempted i could only find that one was but no specifics
I heard it on the telly but you can go to newsnow.co.uk to read the article
mama
  • #4,816
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:48am Jan 31, 2007 2:48am
GBP/JPY down 200 pips from 12:00 gmt, yen is stronger across the board making other currencies weaker and I think this is having the effect on the GBP more than USD since GBPJPY rallied much more recently.
  • #4,817
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:50am Jan 31, 2007 2:50am
Here is the pic
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,818
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:52am Jan 31, 2007 2:52am
Quoting lexazver
GBP/JPY down 200 pips from 12:00 gmt, yen is stronger across the board making other currencies weaker and I think this is having the effect on the GBP more than USD since GBPJPY rallied much more recently.

If usdjpy close below 121.31 today - watch out for yen across the board, especially if USD holds strong ove GBP.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,819
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:55am Jan 31, 2007 2:55am
Quoting Leugimp
The bubble indicator has proven great over these conditions and as of right now we are at an extreme reading on the 150 tick. if confirmation comes prior to 9508 being reached I will add to long for a 40 pip pt1.
Just confimed - look for move to 9580 - although I will not add to long here confirmed on a bar to high up from pivot low so I will only add on pullback to 9529.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,820
  • Jan 31, 2007 2:57am Jan 31, 2007 2:57am
9598 should prove strong resistance from any move up as this level was the breakdown level from earlier today
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
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