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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,201
  • May 29, 2008 11:30am May 29, 2008 11:30am
Quoting Barak's pip
Hello , I read this thread for a while now - and this is my first reply ,

so , nice to "meet" you all .

I'd like to ask 2 qeustions :

1- Do you see also the potential for double top in the chf? what is your plan.

2- About counter trade on the euro\dollar , is somebody going to take it?

thanks for your answer,

Barak

Why would you counter trend the Euro? The last two CT signals were losers, and the trend is strong. There are strong fundamentals in favor of the dollar over the Euro too.
Don't try to outsmart the market.
  • #15,202
  • May 29, 2008 11:44am May 29, 2008 11:44am
Quoting Hookem28
Why would you counter trend the Euro? The last two CT signals were losers, and the trend is strong. There are strong fundamentals in favor of the dollar over the Euro too.
Don't try to outsmart the market.

yes , the trend is really strong , I will drop the idea of ct for now ....


thanks.
  • #15,203
  • Edited 12:08pm May 29, 2008 11:50am | Edited 12:08pm
The Euro settled just onto the daily 89 sma.( I was thinking of the GBP earlier.) We will see if it finds support there. I have an old trendline on as well which has proved useful. I hope we are not in for more 365ema congestion at this level. I wondered if this is the beginning of a downward channel, i put an Andrews pitchfork on it and it was identical.

Somehow i am not convinced that the monthly pin bar from April has worked itself out. Also the 8 ema there is still some 250 pips away.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: may.29.euro.daily.21.ema.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: may.29.euro.downward channel.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #15,204
  • May 29, 2008 11:51am May 29, 2008 11:51am
Sorry if that sounded harsh. Just wouldn't want you to lose pips.
  • #15,205
  • May 29, 2008 12:44pm May 29, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting ejiexe
Good TC on USDCHF. Price closed with the TC above 89. I think this is the type of trade Philip said he won't even think twice before he takes it.
Honest, I took 2lots on this. High probability trade.

Enter @ 1.0416
TP1 @ 1.0441
TP2 @ 1.0500 using fib entension

SL @ 1.0388. This is even too much. It should have been a little below 89. Anyway let see how it goes.

Edit: Is 365 under attack on EU????????

This is not a brag but just to tell u that patient is the key. PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN. PLEASE DON'T BE WAITING FOR TRADE CONFIRMATION FROM THIS THREAD. YOU WILL ALWAY FIND THOUSANDS OF REASON TO CHANGE YOUR PLAN.

Just look at my trade, went down for just 12 pips and reach my TP2 in 3 4hrs candle stick.

When I finish building my house I will name it PHILIP NEL VILLA.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #15,206
  • May 29, 2008 12:48pm May 29, 2008 12:48pm
Hi to everybody here.If I have a clear TC signal and masd is on the right way,and if everything is in my way but i have miss to enter in the exact time,is it posible to take a trade or better to wait next masd signal?I mean if i miss a trade is it better to wait next signal on masd or i could enter after 2-3 hours later after the right signal.And another question?When is better to enter if i see a signal from the system?Excactly on the first minute when the signal is on or i have to wait few minutes and then to enter?Thank you
  • #15,207
  • May 29, 2008 2:13pm May 29, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting fena74
Hi to everybody here.If I have a clear TC signal and masd is on the right way,and if everything is in my way but i have miss to enter in the exact time,is it posible to take a trade or better to wait next masd signal?I mean if i miss a trade is it better to wait next signal on masd or i could enter after 2-3 hours later after the right signal.And another question?When is better to enter if i see a signal from the system?Excactly on the first minute when the signal is on or i have to wait few minutes and then to enter?Thank you
Fena, --It seems that you are giving too much importance to the MACD signal. You need to give more importance to how price is moving around support and resistance, trend lines, highs and lows, candle formations, market motion and emotion. As you get more comfortable with those things, you will see the MACD signal as a confirmation of what you are already thinking. Then you'll have a better idea of whether you can enter later or earlier in a 4 hour period. Normally, a TC or any other signal is taken at the close of the candle. 2 to 3 hours later would usually be way too late to enter on a previous signal. If you haven't already done so, please go to page 1 on this thread and look in the index for the 13 lessons as well as the original PDF that introduces the thread. You can listen to the mp3's of the lessons while studying the charts, or the index will also direct you to written copies of those same lessons. Then read at least the first 100 pages in the thread. You may find you want to read more after that. There is a lot to learn, and I'm still learning, but after you've read more, I don't think you'll be asking if you can enter on a TC 3 hours late! Good luck in your studying.

I'm going to post the introduction to an exercise Phillip made early in this thread, which I think is a classic for getting the feeling of how he trades and what he looks for. The PDF is titled EXERCISE MACD and is on page 10 of this thread, post 143. There are 26 pages of trades. Read it over several times to help remind yourself of the kind of things you're looking for in a trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,208
  • May 29, 2008 8:38pm May 29, 2008 8:38pm
Yesterday was an example of how the Daily chart can be used to confirm a 4 Hour trade.
Notice the price action on the Daily Chart. It gave a signal on the MACD also.
The 89 MA was close by, but the Daily price action AND the 4 hour candle closing below the previous lows confirmed the trade, imo.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eur 529 4h.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #15,209
  • May 29, 2008 9:11pm May 29, 2008 9:11pm
Although I won't trade this CT of eu due to I am goint to change my broker, I still think this would be a success CT. EU was supported by 89sma of daily chart and according to market rhythm, it has high probability to go back to test 89sma of 4h chart.

I think people can set their SL beneth 89sma of daily chart, 1TP is daily pp and 2TP is 89sma.

See 4h and daily chart of eu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 30 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,210
  • May 29, 2008 9:52pm May 29, 2008 9:52pm
Hi Saka.
I took your trade.

Entry EUR 1.5512
TP1 1.5548
TP2 1.5600
SL 1.5482
  • #15,211
  • May 29, 2008 11:14pm May 29, 2008 11:14pm
we had a cross of the 0 line on the daily does this add Buying pressure since is from the daily chart or do you give prefrence to the round top on the 4 hour chart?
  • #15,212
  • May 30, 2008 12:22am May 30, 2008 12:22am
Quoting OldDog
Fena, --It seems that you are giving too much importance to the MACD signal. You need to give more importance to how price is moving around support and resistance, trend lines, highs and lows, candle formations, market motion and emotion. As you get more comfortable with those things, you will see the MACD signal as a confirmation of what you are already thinking. Then you'll have a better idea of whether you can enter later or earlier in a 4 hour period. Normally, a TC or any other signal is taken at the close of the candle. 2 to 3 hours later would usually be way too late to enter on a previous signal. If you haven't already done so, please go to page 1 on this thread and look in the index for the 13 lessons as well as the original PDF that introduces the thread. You can listen to the mp3's of the lessons while studying the charts, or the index will also direct you to written copies of those same lessons. Then read at least the first 100 pages in the thread. You may find you want to read more after that. There is a lot to learn, and I'm still learning, but after you've read more, I don't think you'll be asking if you can enter on a TC 3 hours late! Good luck in your studying.

I'm going to post the introduction to an exercise Phillip made early in this thread, which I think is a classic for getting the feeling of how he trades and what he looks for. The PDF is titled EXERCISE MACD and is on page 10 of this thread, post 143. There are 26 pages of trades. Read it over several times to help remind yourself of the kind of things you're looking for in a trade.
Thank you OldDog.I really apreciate your time for writting this.I have to follow your advices and to go back at the beginning again.Actually I have read all of this you said and all the lessons and i read this thread from the beggining and now i am till 140 page.But sometimes when i get too many information for short time,i think i need to repeat all of this to read again.Thank you.
  • #15,213
  • May 30, 2008 12:44am May 30, 2008 12:44am
Quoting Hookem28
Hi Saka.
I took your trade.

Entry EUR 1.5512
TP1 1.5548
TP2 1.5600
SL 1.5482
OK, I closed 1lot with 20 pips gain. Set remainder BE. German Retail Sales will released soon in 15 minutes, after all this is a CT trade. Taking profit is important.

PS: This is a demo trade for I have changed my broker
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,214
  • May 30, 2008 1:00am May 30, 2008 1:00am
Did the same thing. Took profit at +20.
Was taken out at BE with the 2nd lot. +10 total
  • #15,215
  • May 30, 2008 1:04am May 30, 2008 1:04am
Quoting Hookem28
Did the same thing. Took profit at +20.
Was taken out at BE with the 2nd lot. +10 total
me too. 14:00 EURhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gifGerman Retail Sales m/m
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif -1.7%
0.6%-2.2%http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif

we must pay causion about news.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,216
  • May 30, 2008 1:26am May 30, 2008 1:26am
Quoting saka
me too. 14:00 EURhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gifGerman Retail Sales m/m
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif -1.7%
0.6%-2.2%http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif

we must pay causion about news.
yes, and eur drops 50pips after news,this is 3'rd time that market shows this kind of reaction about eur news recently ,but we have very strong support around 5480 ,if it breaks ,we have good chances to go short i think
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #15,217
  • May 30, 2008 2:32am May 30, 2008 2:32am
People, what does your analysis say - are there any ideas to which side it's more reasonable to position for a breakout for GBPUSD?

For me it looks a bit more bearish on daily and weekly, though I won't say I really see even a range on 4H at the moment - rather "no rhythm".
  • #15,218
  • May 30, 2008 2:43am May 30, 2008 2:43am
Quoting Yorik
People, what does your analysis say - are there any ideas to which side it's more reasonable to position for a breakout for GBPUSD?

For me it looks a bit more bearish on daily and weekly, though I won't say I really see even a range on 4H at the moment - rather "no rhythm".
You can use pin bar to trade in GU these day's trades, that's a wonderful feeling!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #15,219
  • May 30, 2008 4:42am May 30, 2008 4:42am
I took a short position with TC I got.Bounce off 8 though

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 26 KB
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #15,220
  • May 30, 2008 6:00am May 30, 2008 6:00am
1) GBPUSD- still up, but messy.
Short term in some downward channel.

2) EURUSD- possibly down, not confirmed yet

3) USDJPY - looks up, if it touches 21 or close to 21 and then moves up, you can say up.

4) USDCAD - down, but messy and SUPPORT at 0.9820

5) USDCHF - possibly up, but not confirmed yet.
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