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  • #961
  • May 29, 2008 9:08am May 29, 2008 9:08am
Quoting kaunasny
Look at the big move on eur/usd 2/10/2008 - 3/15/2008 , that move did not give you a second chance.
You're right, it didn't give me a second chance, it gave me four chances. In fact... technically speaking even more. I could have bought anywhere along that move up as long as my stops were at the previous wave's low.

See chart below...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_feb10.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #962
  • May 29, 2008 9:12am May 29, 2008 9:12am
Quoting kaunasny
Well it all depends on your ability to earn profitable trades. I myself now closing trades that are positive less than 50% . Meaning if I win less trades, than my winers have to be larger. If I will catch only 10% of that winning move, my win is not going to be large enaugh to make profit. So it's not greed, its surival in my case.
If your hit rate is less than 50% and your losses are fairly big then in that case you're absolutely right. Then you HAVE to aim for bigger moves.

My losses are typically around 1% (my sacrificial scout/pawn). However I could also lose 5% if I enter with a larger position only to have the market go against me 100 pips but I do account for this in my money management. I try to lose with 1% and win with 5% on the line. I use the waves for direction.
  • #963
  • May 29, 2008 10:09am May 29, 2008 10:09am
Earlier oil looked like it was turning around, now it looks like it wants to climb higher. I've marked off the current 4 hour wave. If price breaks the wave to the upside, we're headed higher and this will probably affect the euro as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil_4hour2.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #964
  • May 29, 2008 10:52am May 29, 2008 10:52am
Quoting zoopy
Earlier oil looked like it was turning around, now it looks like it wants to climb higher. I've marked off the current 4 hour wave. If price breaks the wave to the upside, we're headed higher and this will probably affect the euro as well.
Oil is showing weakness. Watch for wave#2 to collapse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil_4hourwave2.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #965
  • May 29, 2008 2:03pm May 29, 2008 2:03pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
Oil is showing weakness. Watch for wave#2 to collapse.
only an hour later and you can kiss EU goodnight.lol
  • #966
  • May 29, 2008 2:27pm May 29, 2008 2:27pm
Thought I would post this up. Remember this gold chart? Wave collapsed, pulled back forming another wave then collapsed again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_4hour.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #967
  • May 29, 2008 2:31pm May 29, 2008 2:31pm
Here's the eurusd daily chart. Wave collapsed...pulled back and is now dropping. Wave #2 hasn't collapsed yet, however if it does, we'll be headed down quite a bit. There's always a chance it could also go up but before it does, it has to create a wave first and break that wave to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_dailywave.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #968
  • May 29, 2008 2:35pm May 29, 2008 2:35pm
Lets look at what the market does when it goes up instead of down. Gbpjpy the wave broke to the upside, pulled back then went up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_4hour_break.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #969
  • May 29, 2008 4:38pm May 29, 2008 4:38pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
you should stop by and take a look at Cadjpy, eurjpy and gbpcad, i know we tend to trade EU, but since where getting away from 'trend' trading and moving into waves i've been looking into other pairs

placed an Ej (long)trade earlier, but used the wrong base line for my stop i used the higher of the 2 lines, which was actually the turning point - lesson learnt.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #970
  • May 29, 2008 5:45pm May 29, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting MPP
you should stop by and take a look at Cadjpy, eurjpy and gbpcad, i know we tend to trade EU, but since where getting away from 'trend' trading and moving into waves i've been looking into other pairs

placed an Ej (long)trade earlier, but used the wrong base line for my stop i used the higher of the 2 lines, which was actually the turning point - lesson learnt.
I do look at other pairs but because of the correlation factor I prefer to stay focused on one or maybe two pairs. I don't really want to deal with figuring out "If I trade eurusd, what happens to eurjpy?" I think it's more about comfort level. Mind you... when I was having this discussion with you earlier, I said I could trade 20 pairs if I wanted to, but as you pointed out, I won't have a life then

Back to our discussion we had earlier. When it comes to the general definition of "trend trading", you're right. However I still believe the way I'm trading these waves is with the trend. When a wave breaks to the upside for example, I'm only buying. If it collapses, I'm only selling. The difference is more in how I determine trend vs how others have done it using trendlines or by other means.
  • #971
  • May 29, 2008 6:16pm May 29, 2008 6:16pm
Not that I trade these but... you know it can't be good when you see this. Daily wave collapse on Dow Jones, S&P500 and NasDaq is still holding.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dj_daily.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500_daily.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nasdaq_daily.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #972
  • May 30, 2008 7:00am May 30, 2008 7:00am
Eurusd is starting to go up. This tells me it's in the process of making another wave. Since the previous wave collapsed, the direction of the pair is currently down UNTIL a wave breaks to the upside which we have not had yet. Having said that... I'm going to send in my "scout" around 1.5600/1.5650. If he makes it back alive, I'm going to send in the rest of the army. The goal now is to get in as close to 1.5750 (previous peak) as possible to limit risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hour_radar.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #973
  • May 30, 2008 8:39am May 30, 2008 8:39am
Thought I would add this because it's a good example of... "what goes up fast will come down just as fast". The move up also shows a possible "trap".

In my example, the usdcad on the 4 hour chart went from 0.9896 and shot straight up (without a retracement - keep in mind when you don't see a retracement, be very careful because it may be a trap, most bars retrace first). We went from 0.9896 all the way to 0.9978. That's a move of 82 pips within a period of about an hour. However... look at what price is doing now, it's making a massive retracement just as fast as it went up. We have now pulled back over 50 pips as I post this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_4hour_retracement.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #974
  • May 30, 2008 9:34pm May 30, 2008 9:34pm
Going to add this in my journal as I just had a discussion with my dad who happens to be an Accountant (good to have them around when you suck at maths lol). I believe this part of my trading is flawed and obviously makes a lot more sense now that I think about it. This is going to be the framework from which I will use to calculate my position size.

This example is based on starting off with a $1000 account trading ONE pair
1. With your first few trades, trade between 1%-3% until you reach $1200 or thereabouts.
2. Once you have profit to bounce off, trade at 3%-5% based on a $1000 account (NOT $1200)
3. Step 2 continues through until you have reached $2000.
4. When $2000 has been reached, start trading 5% based on $2000.
5. If you should run into a string of losses and you hit $1500, start trading 5% based on $1000 again.

In a past post I mentioned that I was trading based on 5% of my account balance. This I believe is a huge flaw because when one runs into a string of losses and is constantly going in at 5%, compounding is actually working AGAINST you. The above change ensures that I only trade aggressively when I have profit to bounce from.

Again... all this stuff is basic. Just like the waves, I'm going through my money management to fix what should have been done a long time ago. With regards to the percentages mentioned, these figures are for my reference only. Others may choose to build profit using 1% then trading aggressively with 3% once they have profit.

Some will notice that I don't carve my rules in stone and sometimes leave things open ended. There's a reason why I do this. For one, every trader has a different personality and handles risk differently. The other main reason is because I think it's dangerous to trap yourself in a corner. When change happens, you won't be able to adapt fast enough.
  • #975
  • May 31, 2008 4:31am May 31, 2008 4:31am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
Going to add this in my journal as I just had a discussion with my dad who happens to be an Accountant (good to have them around when you suck at maths lol). I believe this part of my trading is flawed and obviously makes a lot more sense now that I think about it. This is going to be the framework from which I will use to calculate my position size.

This example is based on starting off with a $1000 account trading ONE pair
1. With your first few trades, trade between 1%-3% until you reach $1200 or thereabouts.
2. Once you have profit to bounce off, trade at 3%-5% based on a $1000 account (NOT $1200)
3. Step 2 continues through until you have reached $2000.
4. When $2000 has been reached, start trading 5% based on $2000.
5. If you should run into a string of losses and you hit $1500, start trading 5% based on $1000 again.

In a past post I mentioned that I was trading based on 5% of my account balance. This I believe is a huge flaw because when one runs into a string of losses and is constantly going in at 5%, compounding is actually working AGAINST you. The above change ensures that I only trade aggressively when I have profit to bounce from.

Again... all this stuff is basic. Just like the waves, I'm going through my money management to fix what should have been done a long time ago. With regards to the percentages mentioned, these figures are for my reference only. Others may choose to build profit using 1% then trading aggressively with 3% once they have profit.

Some will notice that I don't carve my rules in stone and sometimes leave things open ended. There's a reason why I do this. For one, every trader has a different personality and handles risk differently. The other main reason is because I think it's dangerous to trap yourself in a corner. When change happens, you won't be able to adapt fast enough.
great post Zoopy, say thanks to your Dad.
  • #976
  • May 31, 2008 2:06pm May 31, 2008 2:06pm
Zoopy,

Looking at daily chart I have sent a scout in at 1.5550, who is fighting bravely. Very close to fibo 50. If I am wrong then we may go down to 1.538 or even 1.5280.
On weekly chart we have touched a trendline at least a couple of times and if we bounce of this again we should go above 1.5555. If we go through then 1.536 looks a possiblity and after that 1.49 begins to loom. Ho Hum......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd3105081126.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd3105081126weekly.gif Size: 35 KB
Yamin On Demo until I am sure!!!!
  • #977
  • May 31, 2008 3:37pm May 31, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting yamin151
Zoopy,

Looking at daily chart I have sent a scout in at 1.5550, who is fighting bravely. Very close to fibo 50. If I am wrong then we may go down to 1.538 or even 1.5280.
On weekly chart we have touched a trendline at least a couple of times and if we bounce of this again we should go above 1.5555. If we go through then 1.536 looks a possiblity and after that 1.49 begins to loom. Ho Hum......
Right now I'm waiting for price to go as high up and as close to 1.5750 as possible before I short. It started to show signs of weakness yesterday but it's Friday so I didn't bother. When we get to around 1.5600 or 1.5650 then I'll send in my scout. I'm not even thinking about longs right now because all the waves are collapsing. However... if we were to create a wave and that had to break to the upside that changes my view.

I'm only dealing with what's happening now, not what could happen or how far price could go. Pointless thinking of that stuff if you can't predict the future lol. Just my view though, you and others may think otherwise.
  • #978
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:03am Jun 1, 2008 9:03am
Decided to post this chart in particular because the usdchf is pretty much the mirror image of eurusd. However, when I was looking over the chart this morning, I noticed that a daily wave collapsed. Having said this, I'm biased to a downside move on this pair.

How does this affect my view on the eurusd pair? Currently I'm still biased to the downside on the euro as mentioned in a previous post. However, should we start breaking waves to the upside, I will be taking long trades instead. I won't be going long yet, price needs to tell me first it wants to go in that direction before I make the leap. My sacrificial pawn (a.k.a. scout) will be the one that will tell me when this change happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_daily.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #979
  • Jun 2, 2008 7:40am Jun 2, 2008 7:40am
Seemed to have been a lot of movement overnight with most pairs. Euro is currently forming a 4 hour wave. Sent in a short position early this morning based on the current wave turning down (keep in mind as long as waves are collapsing down, I will continue to short until a wave breaks to the upside).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hourwave.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #980
  • Jun 2, 2008 8:35am Jun 2, 2008 8:35am
Tomorrow Bernanke is speaking as well as Wednesday. Our count currently stands at 10 of 13, will we make it to 11 of 14 tomorrow? We'll find out later tonight from between Asian session and Euro/London. That's usually when the move happens
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