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  • #381
  • May 28, 2008 7:31pm May 28, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I've got 2 data feeds. The more reliable one says that price hit 1.0424 right on the head, and based on my own execution today I'm going with that number.

Assuming entry at 1.0424, the maximum payout on this trade so far today was +76 pips.

So good show. Lets keep it going.
What data feeds do you use?
  • #382
  • May 28, 2008 9:08pm May 28, 2008 9:08pm
Quoting SBrickman
What data feeds do you use?
The more reliable one I'm referring to is Oanda, which I trade off of. The other is just a North Finance demo, which is wrong many times. Hard part is I've been using NF for analysis, which after the past few days I've been trying to be very careful with. Like the low on EUR today is higher on Oanda than it is on NF. I'm getting Reuters by Friday so no more second guessing. Here is the image....lower left hand corner. These guys I trust; others, not so much.
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  • #383
  • May 28, 2008 9:21pm May 28, 2008 9:21pm
I use NF for charting and my TL's are usually spot on with what the world sees. You'll notice a different price many times because NF's spread is wider than Oanda's or Currenex's prices. I was filled yesterday 1 pip higher than possible on NF's chart; my bid on my platform came above NF's bid by a pip to fill me short. I've talked to guys that complained about Oanda cutting pips off highs and lows. In the end these retail brokers are just making their own market like a bank would. We should all be using Reuters composite feed if we're serious.

Regarding Reuters feed are you putting it on Metastock software? I have esignal running on topgunsoftware. The software is excellent but the feed is not so great.
It really is that easy.
  • #384
  • May 29, 2008 1:27am May 29, 2008 1:27am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 104.38 - 104.33

On an intraday basis, this level should pay off in normal market conditions. I'm uncertain as to its continuation though. From a technical perspective, I'm still long dollar biased. Fundamentally not as much. Yen is in a funnel right now waiting for a breakout. If the next move is up, the strongest levels of resistance are appx. 105.45 to 105.59.
I thought resistance on this would be 105.3, why do you not count this one?
Thanks

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #385
  • May 29, 2008 1:46am May 29, 2008 1:46am
Looking for a bounce on NU.
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  • #386
  • May 29, 2008 2:20am May 29, 2008 2:20am
Here's one to watch. Double top on the monthly!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #387
  • Edited 7:21am May 29, 2008 7:09am | Edited 7:21am
Quoting max pips
I thought resistance on this would be 105.3, why do you not count this one?
Thanks

max
Hi Max, I'm looking for long term historically strong levels of significance. I'll play double tops but in a case like this there are stronger levels surrounding the immediate price action. When you have a correction at a relatively weaker level like this it is likely that price won't have any issues popping through it on the second go-round. Not true many times, but probability is a little lower.

How many times worth fading is a hard question to answer, and depends on mulitple issues, mainly to current market conditions.
  • #388
  • May 29, 2008 7:11am May 29, 2008 7:11am
Quoting The Fxorce
I use NF for charting and my TL's are usually spot on with what the world sees. You'll notice a different price many times because NF's spread is wider than Oanda's or Currenex's prices. I was filled yesterday 1 pip higher than possible on NF's chart; my bid on my platform came above NF's bid by a pip to fill me short. I've talked to guys that complained about Oanda cutting pips off highs and lows. In the end these retail brokers are just making their own market like a bank would. We should all be using Reuters composite feed if we're serious.

Regarding Reuters feed are you putting it on Metastock software? I have esignal running on topgunsoftware. The software is excellent but the feed is not so great.
Reuters has its own Quotecenter software, which is relatively inexpensive for individual, not institutional, investors, and offers the same quality of data but at a much lower rate. I actually found it through another member on this forum. It can be found through Metastock.
  • #389
  • May 29, 2008 7:12am May 29, 2008 7:12am
Quoting The Fxorce
I use NF for charting and my TL's are usually spot on with what the world sees. You'll notice a different price many times because NF's spread is wider than Oanda's or Currenex's prices. I was filled yesterday 1 pip higher than possible on NF's chart; my bid on my platform came above NF's bid by a pip to fill me short. I've talked to guys that complained about Oanda cutting pips off highs and lows. In the end these retail brokers are just making their own market like a bank would. We should all be using Reuters composite feed if we're serious.

Regarding Reuters feed are you putting it on Metastock software? I have esignal running on topgunsoftware. The software is excellent but the feed is not so great.
Reuters has its own Quotecenter software, which is relatively inexpensive for individual, not institutional, investors, and offers the same quality of data but at a much lower rate. I actually found it through another member on this forum. It can be found through Metastock.
  • #390
  • May 29, 2008 7:13am May 29, 2008 7:13am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5697 - 1.5710

Long EUR/USD 1.5547 - 1.5532

I'm marking up this chart for the long and short because these are the strongest zones in either direction. For the short, make a note that there is a diagonal, downward sloping trendline on a short term chart that could also come into play if price continues up. Look for price to hit the trendline and the support levels at the same time.

To be more precise, if I had to guess now, I would say that price would penetrate the nearer level (lower level on short, higher level on long trade) and make its move from there on both.

There is also some support around 1.5600 which might see some action to the long side, but because today's low just barely touched it (appx. 1.5609) your chances are less probable on this one.

And again more support at appx. 1.5563 area. Watch this level, even for a long trade. If price makes a big move from this point the probability on the long trade above decreases. I chose 1.5547 - 1.5532 because historically, they are simply more significant.
For the long trade, 1.5580 was the topping point, for a max +33 pips of profit so far.

GDP coming out soon.
  • #391
  • May 29, 2008 7:18am May 29, 2008 7:18am
Quoting Iron-man
Here's one to watch. Double top on the monthly!
Hi Ironman, yeah this top seemed to be it and price has been squiggling around up there ever since. I brought it up in a previous post but didnt make a call.

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=231

I had .9648 as the high according to NF at the time. If I had to guess I would say the next move is down for this pair due to a number of different factors, but another crack at that level might be worth the shot.
  • #392
  • May 29, 2008 7:28am May 29, 2008 7:28am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5697 - 1.5710

Long EUR/USD 1.5547 - 1.5532

I'm marking up this chart for the long and short because these are the strongest zones in either direction. For the short, make a note that there is a diagonal, downward sloping trendline on a short term chart that could also come into play if price continues up. Look for price to hit the trendline and the support levels at the same time.

To be more precise, if I had to guess now, I would say that price would penetrate the nearer level (lower level on short, higher level on long trade) and make its move from there on both.

There is also some support around 1.5600 which might see some action to the long side, but because today's low just barely touched it (appx. 1.5609) your chances are less probable on this one.

And again more support at appx. 1.5563 area. Watch this level, even for a long trade. If price makes a big move from this point the probability on the long trade above decreases. I chose 1.5547 - 1.5532 because historically, they are simply more significant.
By the way while I have some time here I wanted to say that to make your entries more precise, take a look at the last time price hit the level you intend to fade. For this long trade it was 1.5547, and price jumped right off of it, to the exact pip, and this isn't uncommon. If using limit orders make sure you take into account your spread. I use them becuse the reaction is sometimes extremely fast and I cant click quick enough.
  • #393
  • May 29, 2008 8:07am May 29, 2008 8:07am
B Ray,

Took the Euro long for 33 pips ( incredible, your call was right to the pip!) but exited at that point due to 8:30 news coming out. Was that the right move , knowing that GDP figures can move the market signifigantly?
How do you decide when to stay with a trade or exit when news is getting ready to hit?
  • #394
  • May 29, 2008 8:14am May 29, 2008 8:14am
eurusd hit the 1.5531 and it rebounded, does your trade still hold true on the levels you mentioned before, or is it too risky now because it may break lower?
  • #395
  • May 29, 2008 8:26am May 29, 2008 8:26am
Quoting inforthepips
B Ray,

Took the Euro long for 33 pips ( incredible, your call was right to the pip!) but exited at that point due to 8:30 news coming out. Was that the right move , knowing that GDP figures can move the market signifigantly?
How do you decide when to stay with a trade or exit when news is getting ready to hit?
Yeah, that was the right move. Only time I'll leave on trades during the news is if they're already well in the money (60+ pips or so usually, but can depend). And I almost always take partial before the announcement if this is the case.
  • #396
  • May 29, 2008 8:29am May 29, 2008 8:29am
Quoting piptornado
eurusd hit the 1.5531 and it rebounded, does your trade still hold true on the levels you mentioned before, or is it too risky now because it may break lower?
Its case by case. A level like this is more likely to stick than others, but after getting pounded so many times it eventually needs to bust.

I would recommend going back and looking at similar scenarios, and based on what's posted here, analyze the charts and see what happened when for the best barometer, if you know what I mean. I could tell you a lot of different things but your learning will enhance if you observe them one by one.
  • #397
  • May 29, 2008 8:36am May 29, 2008 8:36am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
For the long trade, 1.5580 was the topping point, for a max +33 pips of profit so far.

GDP coming out soon.
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5697 - 1.5710

Long EUR/USD 1.5547 - 1.5532

I'm marking up this chart for the long and short because these are the strongest zones in either direction. For the short, make a note that there is a diagonal, downward sloping trendline on a short term chart that could also come into play if price continues up. Look for price to hit the trendline and the support levels at the same time.

To be more precise, if I had to guess now, I would say that price would penetrate the nearer level (lower level on short, higher level on long trade) and make its move from there on both.

There is also some support around 1.5600 which might see some action to the long side, but because today's low just barely touched it (appx. 1.5609) your chances are less probable on this one.

And again more support at appx. 1.5563 area. Watch this level, even for a long trade. If price makes a big move from this point the probability on the long trade above decreases. I chose 1.5547 - 1.5532 because historically, they are simply more significant.
So the highest this went was +43 pips, but again a news announcement, so I'm quoting it for less, +33, but done on it for the day as price broke through the levels.
  • #398
  • May 29, 2008 1:54pm May 29, 2008 1:54pm
Hi FF, I have been following this thread for the last few days and finally signed up to ask some questions. To BillyRayValentine How did you see price would continue from Short EUR/USD 1.5697 - 1.5710-to-Long EUR/USD 1.5547 - 1.5532? I was able to get those lines but I though price had already moved so much a larger retracement would occur.
Thanks

-Sorry does anyone know how to upload a word document, I drew up some SR lines and I want to see if they are lining up with the ones in the thread, I will just type them for now:
eur/usd-15699 15674 15629 15564 15436
gbp/usd-19965, 19903, 19845, 19781, 19735, 19657, 19612
eur/gpb- 8027, 7980, 7924, 7878, 7848
usd/chf-10587 10512 10480 10390 10352
eur/chf-16337 16277 16214 16160

I am especially interested in the euro dollar because it has been the most reliable one for me

Thanks again,
bigplans47
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc currenciessr5.28.doc   405 KB | 898 downloads
  • #399
  • May 29, 2008 7:21pm May 29, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting bigplans47
Hi FF, I have been following this thread for the last few days and finally signed up to ask some questions. To BillyRayValentine How did you see price would continue from Short EUR/USD 1.5697 - 1.5710-to-Long EUR/USD 1.5547 - 1.5532? I was able to get those lines but I though price had already moved so much a larger retracement would occur.
Thanks

-Sorry does anyone know how to upload a word document, I drew up some SR lines and I want to see if they are lining up with the ones in the thread, I will just type them for now:
eur/usd-15699 15674 15629 15564 15436
gbp/usd-19965, 19903, 19845, 19781, 19735, 19657, 19612
eur/gpb- 8027, 7980, 7924, 7878, 7848
usd/chf-10587 10512 10480 10390 10352
eur/chf-16337 16277 16214 16160

I am especially interested in the euro dollar because it has been the most reliable one for me

Thanks again,
bigplans47
Hi BigPlans, welcome welcome. Glad to have you here. I was able to download your attachment and your lines look really good. Glad you chose to come here and not somewhere else .

I was actually in the middle of putting something together in regards to taking profits and trade management, what to expect out of trades, how long they would last, etc. The best way I could decribe it in a nutshell is that I will basically use these lines as a ladder all day long. When one get surpassed, I look to the next, etc. etc. You'll notice throughout the day that price commonly makes "bricks", in other words, price will shoot down, consolidate for a little while, and then shoot down again, turning support into resistance, over and over again. This is what I mean by going up and down a ladder. The other major obstacles for a fade are diagonal trendlines and breaking through them.

The trades I post here mark major levels of support and resistance, not the latter. On an intraday basis, I look at minor support and resistance in conjunction with major to determine what is going to happen next.

Very typically speaking, major points of support and resistance, which have shown very strong historical significance, tend to turn the market moreso than other levels. There was a JPY trade last week that I took most profit on around 80 pips, because it was nearing strong resistance on its move up. Sometimes, you dont know how long it will last, and thats why I also trade on an intraday basis, to basically protect my a$$. I'll commonly leave some positions running, while scalping them in the opposite direction on their moves up or down.

I'll see if I can put together some examples when I have some time. From the sound of your question here and the ton of other questions/comments posted on the thread, trade management and expectations seems to be the biggest issue between making money and not. I've been meaning to add pieces to the other thread so I'll keep you posted.

Your levels look good though, please feel free to post some charts anytime. You seem to get it just fine.

Anyone reading should download the attachment there are some good examples in here.
  • #400
  • May 29, 2008 9:26pm May 29, 2008 9:26pm
I'm watching this one closely!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 052908a.gif Size: 57 KB
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
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