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  • #941
  • May 28, 2008 8:15pm May 28, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting fanias
For example two pairs that I trade are eurusd looking for short opportunity and usdjpy looking for long position.
Yes, the usdjpy 4 hour wave broke to the upside. What we want to do now is wait for a pullback as far down as possible to minimize risk before going long. A good entry may be 104.00 or 103.50 if you can get it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_4hour.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #942
  • May 28, 2008 8:21pm May 28, 2008 8:21pm
Quoting zoopy
I think the important thing is that you should trade in a way you're most comfortable with. I'm sure we all analyze the waves in a similar way, however the way we trade them may be different. It's all about knowing the basics, knowing the boundaries within the basics and trading it accordingly.

What I'm doing now (but not limiting myself to this since I may change it over time the more I understand waves) is to enter into the trade when the market is showing signs of weakness/strength. I enter in with what I refer to as my "scout". The scout is my "sacrificial pawn". If he comes back to me alive I know it's safe. If he doesn't make it back, I know I'm terribly wrong lol. Once I know I have the direction and the market starts picking up momentum, I will move in with a 4-5% position based on a 100 pip stop.
you mean the scout brinks you some pips and how many?
  • #943
  • May 28, 2008 8:23pm May 28, 2008 8:23pm
Here's the eurgbp 4 hour chart. Earlier this week I noticed a wave collapse, didn't bother posting it since I only trade euro now. Wave collapsed, pulled back and dropped.

There's so many opportunities on all pairs. What I do caution traders on though is trading too many pairs. You have to be very careful of correlation. You don't want to enter into a trade 5% on eurusd and 5% on usdchf for example because that's no longer 5% risk, it's 10%.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp_4hour.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #944
  • May 28, 2008 8:25pm May 28, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting zoopy
Yes, the usdjpy 4 hour wave broke to the upside. What we want to do now is wait for a pullback as far down as possible to minimize risk before going long. A good entry may be 104.00 or 103.50 if you can get it.
yes, thats right
  • #945
  • Edited 8:38pm May 28, 2008 8:27pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting fanias
you mean the scout brinks you some pips and how many?
Fanias

That was an analogy. What it means is this... I'm putting a very small position on first to see if there's an opportunity to make more money. If there isn't I will only lose on that small position. However if my small trade starts to show signs of making profit (lets say my small trade starts making +20 pips and going up fast), I will go in with a full position. I'm testing the waters.
  • #946
  • May 28, 2008 8:36pm May 28, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting zoopy
Fanias

That was an analogy. What it means is this... I'm putting a very small position on first to see if there's an opportunity to make more money. If there isn't I will only lose on that small position. However if my small trade starts to show signs of making profit (lets say my small trade starts making +20 pips and going up fast), I will go in with a full position. I'm testing the waters.

very nice zoopy first the scout and then the army to win the battle
  • #947
  • May 28, 2008 8:44pm May 28, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting fanias
very nice zoopy first the scout and then the army to win the battle
Exactly. I don't want to fight if I know I can't win lol.

The other reason is also because more often than not when you first enter into a trade, it goes against you by quite a bit. This is because we can't pick tops or bottoms no matter how good we think we may be. You may get a few but it's probably by luck, just like my trade on the euro lastnight. So instead let the scout tell you when and then drop the bomb.
  • #948
  • May 28, 2008 8:57pm May 28, 2008 8:57pm
Quoting zoopy
Exactly. I don't want to fight if I know I can't win lol.

The other reason is also because more often than not when you first enter into a trade, it goes against you by quite a bit. This is because we can't pick tops or bottoms no matter how good we think we may be. You may get a few but it's probably by luck, just like my trade on the euro lastnight. So instead let the scout tell you when and then drop the bomb.
I agree with you and thanks for your honest conversation about trading.
I am going to bed because here in Greece is close to 5 o'clock in the morning.
Leave the market comes to us. Happy trading and profitable also.
  • #949
  • May 28, 2008 9:03pm May 28, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting fanias
I agree with you and thanks for your honest conversation about trading.
I am going to bed because here in Greece is close to 5 o'clock in the morning.
Leave the market comes to us. Happy trading and profitable also.
Goodnight and good luck with your trades.
  • #950
  • May 29, 2008 1:18am May 29, 2008 1:18am
Quoting zoopy
Exactly. I don't want to fight if I know I can't win lol.

The other reason is also because more often than not when you first enter into a trade, it goes against you by quite a bit. This is because we can't pick tops or bottoms no matter how good we think we may be. You may get a few but it's probably by luck, just like my trade on the euro lastnight. So instead let the scout tell you when and then drop the bomb.
Heh, reminds me of travian

You becomming a great mentor zoopy. Good job

100 pip TP
I have looked in this deeply and I recognized that all these different profit taking techniques work best on different market conditions. In the conditions like we have now probably 100 pip TP is best, as moves in either direction are not that great. I personaly find that if you manage to pick close bottom, target 150 pips, if you entered after the move has started go with 100 pip TP
There are times when market moves strong, fast and not with much retracment, so targeting 100-200 pips will will not do you good. As you will likely only capture 10% of the move, you will reenter at higher price wich will lose you pips because market will not let you get in lower.

What hurts me alot by taking 100 pips by TP, is when I see a move go up another 200 pips. Those situations really bother me, probably more than loses. So I'm looking for better trailing methods. One I'm going to test now is:
Price target 100 pips, 100 pips S/L , once I'm 100 pips in profit and I should be taking TP I just stick 50 TSL to it. If it goes up another 50 pips I place stop / loss at 100 pip profit and look for another TP target, maybe 200 pips? and so forth. I could also decide to collapse the trade.
I still find wave trailing intresting wich I'm looking at it to make it better. What's intresting about waves, is that they work in all time frames... so if you want to protect profits, you can wave trail on smaller time frame, like I found that lets say even 5 minute graph works awsome for waves. That also could be applied when price reaches 100 pips, just put stop below last wave of 5 minute chart as an example.

Just some of my thoughts
  • #951
  • May 29, 2008 1:35am May 29, 2008 1:35am
To zoopys "wavers" :

I look at waves a little bit differently than zoopy so don't get confused and better off follow zoopys methods, not mine.
Like every trader that takes somebodys system and change it for his own preference I change zoopys method a little for myself.

Just wanted to share my chart and my view.

Fundementals just dont let me short eur/usd , but if wave brakes bellow 1.5400 that will be a sign to me that there is a great retracment comming, and after that I will not long euro for a while. Maybe even think about shorting from having nothing else to do since I'm only trading eur/usd pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart eurusd 1.5400.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #952
  • May 29, 2008 7:11am May 29, 2008 7:11am
Quoting kaunasny
100 pip TP
I have looked in this deeply and I recognized that all these different profit taking techniques work best on different market conditions.
True to some degree but not necessarily. What if I told you there's about an 80% probability that once a wave collapses, there will be waves following the initial wave down?
Quoting kaunasny
In the conditions like we have now probably 100 pip TP is best, as moves in either direction are not that great. I personaly find that if you manage to pick close bottom, target 150 pips, if you entered after the move has started go with 100 pip TP
Be very careful of trying to pick tops or bottoms. You may get lucky a few times like I said, but to do it consistently will be very, very hard. I'll post more on my thoughts for this in another post, thanks for mentioning it.
Quoting kaunasny
There are times when market moves strong, fast and not with much retracment, so targeting 100-200 pips will will not do you good. As you will likely only capture 10% of the move, you will reenter at higher price wich will lose you pips because market will not let you get in lower.
To be honest. I don't care if I'm given 10% of the move. I should be happy that I'm even able to get 10% in the first place. Be happy with what the market gives you, don't try to be too greedy. I also highly doubt that a big move won't generate smaller waves to help guide me into a trade. If you look at the last big move down that we had, a wave formed before moving down further.
Quoting kaunasny
What's intresting about waves, is that they work in all time frames... so if you want to protect profits, you can wave trail on smaller time frame, like I found that lets say even 5 minute graph works awsome for waves. That also could be applied when price reaches 100 pips, just put stop below last wave of 5 minute chart as an example.
They WILL work in all timeframes because ALL markets move in waves. However, once you drop down to lower timeframes you will experience more noise so it's harder to determine which of the waves are of more importance.
  • #953
  • May 29, 2008 7:29am May 29, 2008 7:29am
Quoting kaunasny
Like every trader that takes somebodys system and change it for his own preference I change zoopys method a little for myself.
I agree with you although I wouldn't regard this as a system. It's more about market dynamics and learning how the market actually moves. I wouldn't say this is my method either since this material has been mentioned by professional traders for ages. The problem is, most don't understand the simple explanation of it or they rather try to outsmart the market which will never ever happen.[/quote]

Quoting kaunasny
Fundementals just dont let me short eur/usd , but if wave brakes bellow 1.5400 that will be a sign to me that there is a great retracment comming, and after that I will not long euro for a while. Maybe even think about shorting from having nothing else to do since I'm only trading eur/usd pair.
I agree with the fundamentals side of things. Although if the market says to short the eurusd, I think I better listen to it instead of what everyone else is saying

Also... about the retracement, the move up that we just had, I think that WAS the retracement. Look on your daily chart. If it is... this move coming down will go lower than 1.5300. Why? Because when a wave collapses, there's a high probability of the market making waves going lower. We've only experienced the collapse, we haven't had that wave further down yet. Nothing is stopping this market from going up either. If it wants, it can create a wave like it's doing now and break to the upside.
  • #954
  • May 29, 2008 7:41am May 29, 2008 7:41am
For those interested in oil. We had the collapse of a wave yesterday. Price pulled back and is showing signs of weakness. Oil may start sliding in the next few hours.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil_4hour.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #955
  • May 29, 2008 7:55am May 29, 2008 7:55am
Thought this would be an appropriate time to post this story since we're all trying to see how many pips we can squeeze out of the market using waves. To be honest, I think we're all being greedy (that includes me). In any case, read story below...

The story of the dog
Once there was an old man that lived on a farm. He had an old dog that had been with him for many many years. He was a good friend to him and helped him in his way. He would bark when the fox came for the chicken, and he would bring him his slippers in the evening. That was all that the old man needed, and he was happy with the dog. One day the doctor told the old man that he had a serious illness and would most probably die before his dog. The old man wondered whether he should take his dog with him when he died, but loved him too much to do this kind of thing to him. There was a younger family, who was already bidding for the farm looking to move into it once the old man died. He spoke to them and they agreed to take the dog. He even managed to show the dog how to bring the slippers for the new head of the family before he passed.

So now the old man was gone, but his dog still continued for the new masters. He brought the slippers, and he barked when the fox came. Sometimes he might only bring one of the slippers or just look at the father irritated, but mostly he did exactly what had been expected of him from his old owner. But, alas, this was not enough for the new family. They were young, and they still had many ideas, what the dog should and could do.

"If he can bring me my slippers that he can also bring in the newspaper" the father said.
"If he can bark when the fox comes then surely he can also bark when there is a burglar." said the wife.
"If you can do all those things then surely he can chase around outside with us" said the children.

 So the next days, the father kept putting the newspaper in the dog's mouth to show him what to do. The mother got pills from the veterinarian to make him more alert, so he would hear more in the night. The children got him a leash and dragged him around outside all day. Happy that they had now all done their best to get what they thought ideal out of the dog, they went to sleep content. The next morning when they got up, the father called out for the dog, to bring him to slippers. But he didn't come. He lay in his crib, not moving. The black ink from the newspaper had poisened his gums. The pills from the veterinarian had weakened his heart. The children's leash had choked him. He was dead. He would never bring anyone slippers again.

 The familiy discarded the dog and went to the pound to look for a new one.

To see the rest of the thread, here's the link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88957
  • #956
  • May 29, 2008 8:01am May 29, 2008 8:01am
Quoting zoopy
Ok... so I'm sitting here holding a short and happened to look at the calendar for tomorrow and of course Bernanke has to be speaking. Out of all the days, he has to speak tomorrow. Last tally was 10 of 12. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Because of the above, I may be bailing out of my trade since there's an 83% chance euro will go up lol
Lastnight the euro dropped. We now stand at 10 of 13. Bernanke is losing his touch.
  • #957
  • May 29, 2008 8:34am May 29, 2008 8:34am
Quoting zoopy
Lastnight the euro dropped. We now stand at 10 of 13. Bernanke is losing his touch.

He isn't... , you just have to adjust your strategy Adrian....

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=3967
  • #958
  • May 29, 2008 8:45am May 29, 2008 8:45am
Quoting raczekfx
He isn't... , you just have to adjust your strategy Adrian....

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=3967
lol. I didn't bother taking that into account. All I know is more often than not when he opens up his mouth, the euro goes up. Even when he became Fed Chairman and the US was raising rates, the euro still went up.

Thanks for the link, that's handy. Maybe we need to do a tally of that too and compare.
  • #959
  • May 29, 2008 8:59am May 29, 2008 8:59am
Right now I'm out of the market waiting for a pullback. We may get one at 1.5500 since I feel the current wave is pretty large in size. There was a slight pullback overnight but I think we'll be getting a slightly larger one soon. Since the market moves in waves, I'll just wait for the next one to form and go up before attempting to short it again.

Here's a look at how I see the current wave (notice the size of it relative to the surrounding waves).

Edit: I also think there are buyers hiding behind 1.5500 because of how price is reacting to 1.5520 area. Will have to wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_wave.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #960
  • May 29, 2008 9:00am May 29, 2008 9:00am
Quoting zoopy


To be honest. I don't care if I'm given 10% of the move. I should be happy that I'm even able to get 10% in the first place. Be happy with what the market gives you, don't try to be too greedy. I also highly doubt that a big move won't generate smaller waves to help guide me into a trade. If you look at the last big move down that we had, a wave formed before moving down further.

e.
Well it all depends on your ability to earn profitable trades. I myself now closing trades that are positive less than 50% . Meaning if I win less trades, than my winers have to be larger. If I will catch only 10% of that winning move, my win is not going to be large enaugh to make profit. So it's not greed, its surival in my case.

Look at the big move on eur/usd 2/10/2008 - 3/15/2008 , that move did not give you a second chance.

Anyway talking more about capturing 10% of the move, It all depends on the trader. Like I mentioned, it really bothers me to capture only 10%. If it doesn't bother the other trader, then its fine. We build out strategies with what we are comfortable with. So some choose TP , some choose to trail and try to maximize profits. I don't think either of them is better, its just wich is better for the trader to feel comfortable.
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