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NZD Trade Balance

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 30, 2007 8:54am Jan 30, 2007 8:54am
NZD is beeing sold in favor of USD today. It made 100 pips move as of this writing. Perhaps even more.

It was said that some US Investment houses were the seller of this pair.

BAD Trade Balance? or just plain USD strength?
  • #2
  • Jan 30, 2007 9:07am Jan 30, 2007 9:07am
Wasn't there some bad numbers last week? Possibly. I hope there's some action today on the pair. I haven't had a decent news play in a few weeks now in any aspect.
  • #3
  • Jan 30, 2007 10:58am Jan 30, 2007 10:58am
the consensus saying it would come out the way better that previous number, usually this news not moving nice, last time it only moved 15 pips and then returned back to pre-release price very fast, so i think nzd TB is risky, but who knows maybe this will be an earth shaker like nzd CPI!!
  • #4
  • Jan 30, 2007 11:12am Jan 30, 2007 11:12am
I wonder if this is one reason for the drop you mention this morning. Todays paper:

Quote
New Zealand's inflation outlook is benign, cutting the chances of a Reserve Bank interest-rate hike picked by some to occur as soon as March, a visiting Australian economist says.

Projections showed a quick fall in the consumer price index to within the RBNZ's 1 per cent to 3 per cent inflation band over coming months – a good argument not to raise rates again, BT Financial Group chief economist Chris Caton said.

From Stuff
  • #5
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:08pm Jan 30, 2007 1:08pm
NZD had fallen freely in last 24 hours. If the trade balance is worse than expected, it may not fall much. However, if the trade balance is much better it may be quite a good trade.
  • #6
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:42pm Jan 30, 2007 1:42pm
If the report comes out better than concensus then it is very tradeable, otherwise it is risky. I loved what happened 2 weeks ago with NZD...or was it last week? GBPNZD moved 300 pips yo
  • #7
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:11pm Jan 30, 2007 3:11pm
I plan to put entry order to go long........ on NZD/USD as not much to move south for today........
Any insight on this regard?
Thank you
BANDA333
  • #8
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:27pm Jan 30, 2007 3:27pm
The nzd weakness we saw today was definetly not due to any dollar strength. Before any report comes in you have to remember that there are big market players (who are well informed) positioning themselves ahead of the release. In this case the major players are positioned short. You'll notice that the direction prior to a release is often a tip-off of which way it will go. In any case I bet there are a ton of stops below 6840 and those should be kept in mind for this release. My bet would be to short any strength on the initial spike and look to take profits in the 6840 area.
  • #9
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:33pm Jan 30, 2007 3:33pm
Hmmm... seems like there is a general bullish sentiment. Maybe another good reason to short.
  • #10
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:43pm Jan 30, 2007 3:43pm
i think this will be fadeable no matter what direction it goes
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #11
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:48pm Jan 30, 2007 3:48pm
bad news not move
  • #12
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:52pm Jan 30, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting Ghostpipper
i think this will be fadeable no matter what direction it goes

i was way late fading this thing got in at 77 short lol
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #13
  • Last Post: Jan 30, 2007 4:15pm Jan 30, 2007 4:15pm
Went short at 85 and got out at 75 for 10 measly pips. I'm going to bed.
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